December Chain Store Sales comps increased by 3.5%,
slightly less than 2010. Combined with November results, Holiday 2011 sales were up
3.3%, a solid performance but less than the 3.8% sales growth generated last year. Boots,
colored denim, handbags, and luxury performed well while cold weather apparel and
sportswear lagged. Mobile devices, including smartphones and tablets, led in electronics.
1.
December Retail Sales | January 6, 2012
HIGHLIGHTS
Yesterday, ICSC reported that December Chain Store Sales comps increased by 3.5%,
slightly less than 2010. Combined with November results, Holiday 2011 sales were up
3.3%, a solid performance but less than the 3.8% sales growth generated last year. Boots,
colored denim, handbags, and luxury performed well while cold weather apparel and
sportswear lagged. Mobile devices, including smartphones and tablets, led in electronics.
As expected, incessant promotional activity, led by Internet retailers, defined the selling
season. The American Research Group reported that 41% of consumers shopped online
compared with just more than 30% last year, with ten individual online shopping days
surpassing $1 billion in revenue. ComScore reported that during November and December,
online sales increased 15% year‐over‐year to $37.2 billion, versus an estimated 4% increase
in bricks‐and‐mortar. Purchases made via a mobile device were up sharply, from 5.3% in
2010 to 14.4% this year.
Among retailers reporting monthly, Nordstrom (+8.7%) and Macy’s (+6.1%) led the
department store sector, Ross (+9.0%) and T.J. Maxx (+8.0%) led the discounters, and The
Limited (+7.0%), The Buckle (+8.9%), and Zumiez (+10%) outperformed in Specialty. Many of
these strong performers attributed part of their results to prudent inventory management,
which allowed them to maintain margins, and have either reiterated or increased their
Q4 earnings guidance.
Sears acknowledged a miserable holiday season and announced plans to shutter 120 stores.
Target (+1.6%) and Kohl’s (0.1%) underperformed for the month, potentially losing sales to
Walmart as it returned its focus to low prices. Wet Seal (‐3.7%) bucked the promotions trend,
sacrificing comp store gains to preserve margins.
Promotions will continue to drive retail sales this month, as consumers weigh deals against
how much money they have to spend. After several frugal holidays, this year shoppers relied
more heavily on credit cards, suggesting a spending pullback in January and February as bills
come due. Furthermore, today’s December employment data release showed that wage growth
over the past 12 months is not keeping up with inflation, which further constrains spending
power.
2. Results from ICSC’s December survey of retail executives showed improving sentiment in both
its Current and Future Expectations indices despite a weaker Q4 real estate market. For the
month, all five components of the Expectations Index improved; cap rates recorded the highest
level, 55.9% (any reading above 50% signals executives’ expectations for improved conditions).
Also, expectations for two of the five components—customer traffic and capitalization rates—
rebounded from November.
Electronics ($1,338 per square foot), Jewelry ($994/psf), Food Court ($807/psf), Misc. Apparel
and Accessories ($787/psf)and Personal Care ($604/psf) were the most productive categories
in ICSC’s October U.S. Mall Performance report.
Category Company Y‐o‐Y Chg in SSS (%) Y‐o‐Y Chg in SSS (%)
MONTHLY December‐11 November‐11
Dep't Stores Dillard's Inc 4.0 3.0
JC Penney Co., Inc. 0.3 (2.0)
Macy's Inc 6.2 4.8
Nordstrom, Inc. 8.7 5.6
Nordstrom (Full & Direct) 11.0 5.6
Rack Stores 0.7 5.1
Saks, Inc. 5.8 9.3
Bon‐Ton Stores Inc/The (0.7) (4.9)
Discounters Costco (U.S., with/excl. fuel) 7.0/6.0 9.0/6.0
Kohl's Corp (0.1) (4.5)
Ross Stores, Inc. 9.0 5.0
TJX Cos Inc 8.0 4.0
Marmaxx 7.0 4.0
HomeGoods 15.0 6.0
T.J. Maxx 14.0 5.0
Target Corporation 1.6 1.8
Stein Mart Inc flat (4.6)
3. Specialty
Apparel Ltd Brands, Inc. 7.0 7.0
Victoria's Secret 11.0 11.0
Bath & Body Works 4.0 6.0
La Senza flat (7.0)
Buckle Inc/The 8.9 6.9
Zumiez Inc. 10.0 8.4
Wet Seal Inc/The (3.7) (3.1)
Wet Seal (2.5) (1.8)
Arden B (10.2) (11.2)
Stage Stores Inc. 1.2 2.3
Gap Inc/The (4.0) (5.0)
Banana Republic N. Amer (2.0) flat
GAP International (6.0) (9.0)
Old Navy North Amer (4.0) (7.0)
Gap North America (4.0) (2.0)
Pharmacy Rite Aid Corp 3.6 1.9
Pharmacy 5.2 3.1
Front‐end 0.7 (0.6)
Walgreens 0.4 1.8
Pharmacy 0.2 1.2
Front‐end 0.6 2.7
4. Y‐o‐Y Chg in Y‐o‐Y Chg in
Category Company SSS (%) SSS (%)2
Most Recent*
QUARTERLY Qtr Previous Qtr
Pharmacy CVS 2.3 2.0
Pharmacy 2.4 2.6
Front‐end 2.0 0.8
Auto AutoZone (U.S.) 4.5 5.3
Pep Boys (2.0) (0.6)
Discounters 99 Cents Only 6.7 5.9
Big Lots (1.5) (3.6)
Cost Plus 4.0 2.8
DSW 5.2 12.3
Dollar General 6.3 5.9
Dollar Tree 4.8 4.7
Family Dollar 4.1 5.6
Tuesday Morning (4.1) (4.5)
Wal‐Mart (U.S.) 1.3 (0.9)
Grocers Kroger (with/excl. fuel) 10.3/5.0 9.3/5.3
Safeway (with/excl. fuel) 7.4/1.5 7.1/0.5
SuperValu (1.8) (3.9)
Winn‐Dixie 3.3 3.2
Whole Foods 8.7 8.4
Home Bed Bath & Beyond 5.6 7.0
Home Depot (U.S.) 3.8 3.5
6. Denny's 0.9 2.0
DineEquity
Applebee's (0.3) 3.1
IHOP (1.5) (2.9)
Domino's 3.0 4.8
Dunkin Brands (U.S.) 5.6 3.2
Einstein Noah 1.0 (0.8)
Kona Grill, Inc. 10.6 9.1
Krispy Kreme 4.0 5.8
McDonald's Corp. (U.S.) 4.4 4.5
Morton's Restaurant Group, Inc. 5.1 8.2
O'Charley's, Inc. (0.9) 0.4
OSI Restaurant Partners
Bonefish Grill 7.4 10.2
Carrabba's 6.3 4.9
Fleming's 10.1 9.9
Outback Steakhouse 5.6 1.7
P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc.
P.F. Chang's (3.7) (2.5)
Pei Wei (3.6) (2.7)
Panera Bread 6.0 4.4
Ruby Tuesday, Inc. (4.1) (0.1)
Ruth's Hospitality Group
Ruth's Chris 2.6 5.8
Mitchell's Fish Market (0.7) (1.4)
Starbucks (U.S.) 10.0 8.0
7. Yum! Brands (U.S.) (3.0) (4.0)
* Fiscal year and quarterly reporting schedules vary by company.
Comp sales in BOLD have been updated within the past month.
Ann T. Natunewicz
National Manager | Retail Research
Retail Services Group
Direct +1 202 742 1105
Main +1 202 742 1100 | Fax +1 202 347 5160
Ann.Natunewicz@colliers.com
Colliers International
1000 Wisconsin Ave. NW | Suite 200
Washington, DC 20007 | United States
www.colliers.com
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