According to Colliers’s research findings, during the third quarter, most of residential markets across India have experienced a healthy increase in residential supply through new project launches in each city except for Delhi city. Rental levels trended upwards this quarter with 3-7% in Delhi, 4-9% in Chennai and 2-6% in Kolkatta. Gurgaon, Noida and Pune registered stable rental levels due to overall ample supply and steady demand with decrease levels registered in Bengaluru in the range of 3-9%. Going forward, rentals values are expected to see marginal increase in near term. For a more detailed analysis of the trends in each market kindly click here to download the report. I am sure you will find it to be an interesting read.
2. 3Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL
Research report
SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
research & forecast Report
India RESIDENTIAL market
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
• India’s GDP growth has slowed to a 3 year low at 5.3% in the April-June quarter of the current
fiscal. The wholesale price index reached 7.45% in October this year much above the RBI’s
expected range.
• As the inflation remained higher, the central bank did not provide any repo rate cut this quarter.
However, in October 2012, the RBI did reduce the (CRR) Cash Reserve Ratio by 25 basis points
to induce immediate liquidity in the market in its mid-year policy review. Earlier, in July 2012,
the RBI also reduced its SLR (Statutory Liquidity Requirement) by 1%.
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India was around $1.76 billion in July 2012. Sectors which
ECONOMIC BAROMETER received large FDI inflows were Services, Pharmaceuticals, Construction and Power.
Oct-11 Oct-12 • During this festive season the Indian banking sector offered cheaper home loans rates and lower
processing fee to boost the sagging housing market across the country. For example State Bank
REPO RATE 8.50% 8.00%
of India reduced its processing fee by half across all loans volumes till 31 December 2012.
Similarly, Punjab National Bank offered full waiver on processing fee till Nov 2012. Other banks
REVERSE REPO RATE 7.50% 7.00%
like ICICI, Federal Bank and Bank of Baroda are providing concessional interest rates during this
CRR 6.00% 4.25% season.
INFLATION 9.87% 7.45% • The Finance Minister has announced a slew of reform measures such as diesel price hike, cap
1
on the number of subsidised cooking gas cylinders per family, liberalising foreign holding norms
Home Loan Rate 10.00% 10.00% in aviation, multi-brand retail, non-news broadcasting and power exchanges sectors, and
divesting its stake in five companies. However, most of these reform measures faced strong
opposition and implementation of these measures is still uncertain.
Return on Alternative Investments ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Oct-11 Oct-12 YoY %
Change 12.0
11.0
Gold 26,887 30,961 15.15%
10.0
SILVER 53,371 59,921 12.27% 9.0
8.0
2
Fixed Deposit 8.25% 8.50% 3.03% 7.0
EQUITY 17,025 18,713 9.92% 6.0
5.0
REALTY INDEX 1,836 1,879 2.36% 4.0
3.0
2.0
In Percentage
1.0
1
SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan Amount upto INR 30 Lakhs.
2 0.0
SBI Fixed Deposit rate for a period of more than one year and
Feb ‘08
Apr ‘08
Jun ‘08
Aug‘08
Oct‘08
Dec ‘08
Feb ‘09
Apr ‘09
Jun ‘09
Augt‘09
Oct ‘09
Dec ‘09
Feb ‘10
Apr ‘10
Jun ‘10
Aug‘10
Oct‘10
Dec ‘10
Feb ‘11
Apr ‘11
Jun ‘11
Aug ‘11
Oct ‘11
Dec ‘11
Feb‘12
Apr ‘12
Jun ‘12
AUg ‘12
Oct ‘12
amount less than INR 1 Crore (-1.0)
Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate Cash Reserve Ratio Wholesale Price Index
Source: Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
3. INDIA | 3q 2012 | residential
MUMBAI 3Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
CAPITAL VALUE
• During 3Q 2012, Mumbai’s residential
market witnessed the launch of several new 70,000
60,000
projects, such as “New Vinay” by kabra & 50,000
Associates at Santacruz; “Crescent Bay by 40,000
L&T at Parel; "Venezia” and a new tower in 30,000
“New Cuffe Parade” by Lodha Group at Parel 20,000
INR per sq ft
10,000
and Wadala, respectively. All of these projects 0
were priced in the range of INR 16,000 per sq
Khar
Malabar Hill, Altamount
Road, Carmichael Road
Breach Candy, Napeansea
Road, Peddar Road
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
Worli
Prabhadevi
Bandra
Santacruz
Juhu
Andheri
Powai
ft to INR 20,000 per sq ft.
• During the last 2 quarters, construction
activity remained slow and no new residential
projects/phases of projects completed in
Mumbai.
MUMBAI
• Capital values in the western and central parts CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
of Mumbai increased in the range of 1-2%
CITY RESIDENTIAL BAROMETER QoQ. However, in south-central locations, 75,000
such as Malabar Hill, Altamount Road, 65,000
2Q 2012 3Q 2012 Carmichael Road, Breach Candy, Napeansea
55,000
45,000
Road, Peddar Road, Colaba and Cuffe Parade, 35,000
RENTAL VALUE and central locations, such as Powai, capital 25,000
INR per sq ft
values remained stable. 15,000
CAPITAL VALUE
5,000
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
• The rental values of premium residential
properties remained stable in almost all of Breach Candy, Khar Colaba, Andheri
Napeansea Road, Cuffe Parade
the micro markets, except in those, such as Peddar Road Prabhadevi Bandra Worli
Powai Malabar Hill, Santacruz
Worli, Prabhadevi and Powai, where rents
Juhu
Altamount Road, Carmichael Road
increased by 1%, and those micro markets in
south-central locations, where rents declined
by 1%.
3Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
COLLIERS RESIDEX 3Q 2012 - MUMBAI
RENTAL VALUE
• he State Government of Maharashtra passed
T
150 the Maharashtra Housing Regulation and Malabar Hill, Altamount Road,
Development Bill 2012. The aim of the bill
Carmichael Road
140 Breach Candy,
Powai 200 Napeansea Rd.,
130
is to bring transparency to the realty sector 150
Peddar rd.
120
110
and empower end-users by protecting their Andheri 100
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
100 interests from the objectionable practices of 50
90
80
builders. 0
Worli
Juhu
70
60
Santacruz Prabhadevi
50
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
Khar Bandra
Rebase to 100 in 4Q 2008 INR per Sq ft Per Month
NEW PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession Rate (Per Sq.ft.)*
Crescent Bay Parel L&T 4Q 2017 17,500
New Cuffe Parade (New Tower) Wadala Lodha Group 4Q 2017 16,500
New Vinay Santacruz Kabra & Associates 4Q 2014 16,000
Venezia Parel Lodha Group 4Q 2017 19,980
Note: * Base selling price as quoted by developer
Colliers International | p. 3
K
4. INDIA | 3Q 2012 | residential
Delhi 3Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
CAPITAL VALUE
• During 3Q 2012, limited new supply was
added to the city’s premium residential 100,000
90,000
inventory; only few small-scale redevelopment 80,000
residential projects were ready for possession 70,000
60,000
in locations such as Anand Niketan, Defence 50,000
40,000
Colony, Vasant Vihar and Shanti Niketan. 30,000
INR per Sq Ft
20,000
10,000
• No new premium residential project was 0
launched during this quarter.
Vasant Vihar
Sunder Nagar
Anand Niketan,
Prithviraj Road,
Aurangzeb Road
Chanakya Puri
Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
Shanti Niketan,
Westend
Panchashila, Anandlok,
Niti Bagh, SDA
Friends Colony,
Maharani Bagh
Greater Kailash
I & II, South
Extension
• In 3Q 2012, capital values for premium
residential properties increased marginally
in almost all the micro markets, a few micro
markets like Shanti Niketan, Anand Niketan,
delhi Friends Colony and Greater Kailash, where
capital value increased in the range of 3 to CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
8% QoQ. This could be attributed to the
CITY RESIDENTIAL BAROMETER new construction happening in these micro 100,000
markets, which in turn pegging up the capital
90,000
80,000
2Q 2012 3Q 2012 values. 70,000
60,000
50,000
RENTAL VALUE • Rental values for premium residential
40,000
30,000
INR per Sq Ft
properties appreciated in the range of 3 to 7% 20,000
CAPITAL VALUE 10,000
QoQ across all the micro markets. The rentals 0
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
increase was primarily attributed to the limited
supply of prime residential properties.
Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Sunder Nagar Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
Chanakya Puri Shanti Niketan, Westend
Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh
• In this quarter, the Delhi State Government Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar
has started allocating the first batch of 500
low-cost flats in Bawana to the slum dwellers.
The entire project consists of 14,000 low-cost
3Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL average
COLLIERS RESIDEX 3Q 2012 - DELHI flats in eight slum clusters in West and South
RENTAL VALUE
Delhi, which are expected to be ready by the
150
end of 2012. Correspondingly, flats will be
140 allotted to the slum dwellers. Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
200
130 Anand Niketan,
Vasant Vihar 160 Chanakya Puri
120
120
110
80
100 Greater 40
Kailash I
90 & II, South 0 Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
Extension Sunder Nagar
80
70
60 Friends Colony, Shanti Niketan, Westend
Maharani Bagh
50
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA
Rebase to 100 in 4Q 2008 INR per Sq ft Per Month
Ongoing Projects
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession Rate (Per Sq.ft.)*
Capital Greens Shivaji Marg DLF Ltd. 2Q 2015 14,000
Castewood Okhla Indiabulls Ltd. 4Q 2013 12,800
Kings Court Greater Kailash- II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 36,000
Metro Park Dwaraka Morh Umang Realtech 4Q 2014 8,500
Queens Court Greater Kailash- II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 30,000
Winter Hills Dwaraka Morh Umang Realtech 4Q 2013 7,000
Note: * Base selling price as quoted by developer
p. 4 | Colliers International