Catalan Independence

Perception survey
Catalonia / Spain
MAIN RESULTS

November 2009

Research by Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. Director: Miquel Strubell
(Identi.Cat research group)

Field work and data analysis: Instituto DYM

With the support of the Centre of Contemporary Studies of Catalonia (CETC)

NOTE: this document has been translated by volunteers. If in doubt refer to the
Catalan original file. Ref.: 09472183

Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 1

TECHNICAL FILE
TECHNICAL FILE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
REFERENDUM REACTIONS
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE


Technical File
Data collection Interviews with Computer Aided Technology Inc (C.A.T.I.).
Fieldwork dates From September 14 to October 2, 2009.
Questionnaire Designed by the working team, and thereafter revised and adpated by Instituto DYM to
C.A.T.I. methodology
Language preference Questions have been formulated in Catalan or Spanish according to preference of
interviewed person.
Universe Population between15 and 74 (both included).
Span Catalonia
Sample selection Random sampling stratified by vegueries (regions) and habitat size. The person to be
interviewed within the household was chosen randomly among household members,
according to established quotas.
Quotas Quotas crossed by region (vegueries), habitat, gender and age, proportional to actual
population.
Final Sample 2614 interviews
Sample error margin +2,0% calculated for a reliability level of 95,5%, under the assumption of maximum
statistical indetermination (p=q=50%) according to the sample error formula for infinite
universes.
Data weighting The weighting of interviews have been equated to the established distribution, so as to
correct little deviations. Extra weighting has been introduced according to place of birth,
equating it to actual proportion in present demographic data.


TECHNICAL FILE


DEMOCRACY, LAW AND
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND
SELF-DETERMINATION
SELF-DETERMINATION
In case a democratic decision clashed against the current laws, which do you think should prevail?

Base: Total interviews (2.614)
NC = No Choice NA= No Answer

Current laws;
22%
NA; 1%

NC; 10%

Democratic
Principles
67%


SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL

Do you think the peoples of the world
have the right of self-determination, ie to
choose freely and democratically their
own political future?


In general
terms no
NC
6,5%
1,1%

It depends
3,5%
In general
terms yes
88,9%


SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL

Do the peoples of the world have the right
And in the case of Catalonia, does it have
of self-determination, ie. deciding their
the right of deciding freely and
own political future freely and
democratically its own political future?
democratically?


NC 2,6%
NA 0,4%

No 14,4%
In general
terms no
6,5% NC
1,1%
It depends
3,5% In general
term s yes
88,9%
Yes 82,6%


TECHNICAL FILE


REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do?


NA
NC 1,4%
Vote for
5,8%
50,3%

Abstention
/refrain from
voting
24,6%

Vote against
17,8%




19,4
18,8
64,2 9,1
64,5 8,8

25,3
56,3
11,3
26,6
46,3
19,8
20,9
47,2 25,9
Percentages
voting for
independence
19,3
63,4 11,9



BY PLACE OF BIRTH


No answer
5,5 4,8 3,3
8,4

No choice 21,1 24,3 30,7
31,1
14,9
Abstention / 25,4 11,8
refrain from
voting 26,2
Vote against
57,1 53,3
44,8
Vote for 32,6

Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain in the rest of Europe In the rest of the World

Over average Under average


MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to
decide Catalan independence?

MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR

Base: Vote for (1.376)

Peaceful/democratic
65,7
reasons

Economic motives 62,3

Feelings or beliefs 58,6

Language and
56,4
cultural reasons

Weariness of Spain 29,6

None of the above 0,9

No choice 0,5

No answer 0,1



MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST

Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438)

Peaceful/democratic Feelings or
65,7 60,8
reasons beliefs

Economically
Economic motives 62,3 29,3
unfeasible

Laws do not
Feelings or beliefs 58,6 25,9
allow it

Language and Scared of
56,4 25,7
cultural reasons conflict

None of the
Weariness of Spain 29,6 5,8
above

None of the above 0,9 No choice 0,9

No choice 0,5

No answer 0,1



MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST MOTIVES TO ABSTAIN

Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438) Base: Abstention (607)

Peaceful/democratic Feelings or Not my
65,7 60,8 38,4
reasons beliefs business

Economically Feelings or
29,2
Economic motives 62,3 29,3 beliefs
unfeasible
Scared of
Laws do not 25,7
Feelings or beliefs 58,6 25,9 conflict
allow it
Laws do not
Scared of 20,6
Language and allow it
56,4 25,7
cultural reasons conflict
Economically
18,5
None of the unfeasible
Weariness of Spain 29,6 5,8
above
None of the
13,9
above
None of the above 0,9 No choice 0,9
No choice 3,2

No choice 0,5
No answer 0,4

No answer 0,1


TECHNICAL FILE


In the case Catalonia became independent...


Do you think the situation of 2,4%
64,6% 29,0% 3,8%
Catalan language and culture... 0,2%

7,8%
Do you think social w elfare of 54,7% 27,6% 9,7% 0,3%
Catalans...

Do you think im m igration 30,4% 40,6% 13,1% 15,2% 0,6%
policies...

Would improve Would stay the same
Would worsen NC
NA



Do you agree with the expression: “An
independent Catalonia could keep good
relations with Spain?”

1,8 2,4 3,8
100
16,9
90

80 37,8

70 59,8

60
NS/NC
50
81,3 En desacord
40 D’acord
58,4
30

20 37,8

10

0
A f avor En contra Abstenció
Referendum behaviour



EUROPEAN UNION

Would you be for or against Catalonia being No choice; 1,2%
No answer; 0,4%
part of the European Union as any other Indifferent; 17,1%
member state?


Against; 17,6%
For; 63,6%

Pensa que una Catalunya independent que
formés part de la Unió Europea defensaria
millor els interessos dels catalans que en la NS
situació actual? 8,1%

Base: Total entrevistes (2.614)
Si
No 71,1%
20,8%


EUROPEAN UNION

Would you be for or against Catalonia being No choice; 1,2%
No answer; 0,4%
part of the European Union as any other Indifferent; 17,1%
member state?


Against; 17,6%
For; 63,6%

Do you think that an independent Catalonia
which were part of the European Union
would sustain Catalan interests better? NC
8,1%

Yes
No 71,1%
20,8%


TECHNICAL FILE



Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence?


NA
0,5% Rather in favour
NC 43,4%
8,3%

Rather against
34,4% Half and half
13,4%


Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence?

DISTRIBUTION ACCORDING TO REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR

NA
6,9 8,2 9,4 15,0
22,2
NC
38,7 33,9
13,4
63,5
Rather in
favour 13,0
20,5
57,2
Half and half 10,7 38,2
29,9
16,9
Rather against
Perception of those voting Perception of those voting Perception of those Perception of NC/NA
for against abstaining


TECHNICAL FILE



Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day?


Yes
NA 31,1%
0,1%

NC
10,7%

No
58,1%




DISTRIBUTION BY VEGUERIES OR REGIONS

5.4 9.7
30.4
37.4
59.9 7.7
56.4 40.2

52.1

11.4
29.5

59,0
14.7
38.1
11.4
26.7
47.2
61.8





BIRTHPLACE DISTRIBUTION

0,1 0 0 0
8,7 14,6 7,7
19,9
42,1
63 55,6 51,4

50,2
28,1 29,8 28,7

Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain In the rest of Europe In the rest of the World


TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
When do you think Catalonia could become independent?

Base: will be independent some day (768)

In the next 5
years
NC NA
12,1%
4,1% 0,1%

In the next 20
years
41,8%

In the longer run
41,9%


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