European eCommerce Forecast: 2008 To 2013

2. European eCommerce Forecast:
2008 To 2013
Victoria Bracewell Lewis
Senior Analyst
Forrester Research
28 October 2008

3. Agenda
• Pan European forecast overview
• Country specific data
• Top categories
• Key drivers for eCommerce
3 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.

4. Despite economic woes, online shopping
remains in strong growth mode
“Have you bought any products or services online in the past three months?”
66%
Germany and the UK UK 73%
79%
still account for 60%
of Europe’s online 56%
Sweden 65%
shoppers 72%
58%
4.6m Germany 66%
75%
39%
U France 56%
60%
29m 8.6m
42%
36m Netherlands 57%
70%
18%
18m Italy 29% Q2 2004
8m 33%
Q2 2006
PV S
L TLR
16% Q2 2008
Spain 24%
6m 31%
Base: At least 22,102 European net users (16+)
4 Source:
Forrester's Consumer Technology Adoption Study, 2004 to 2008
Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.

5. Online retail sales for Western Europe will
reach €175 billion by 2013
Total online retail sales
for Western Europe
(in € millions) Actual Forecast
€ 200,000
€ 180,000
€ 160,000
€ 140,000
€ 120,000
€ 100,000
€ 80,000
€ 60,000
€ 40,000
€ 20,000
€0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Base: European online consumers
Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Surveys, 2002-2008
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6. With the UK, Germany, and France keeping a
leader position, but closely followed by Nordics
Total online
retail sales
for EU-7
(in € millions)
€ 60,000 Actual Forecast United
Kingdom
Germany
€ 50,000
France
Netherlands
€ 40,000
Sweden
Italy
€ 30,000
Spain
€ 20,000
€ 10,000
€0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Base: European online consumers
Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Surveys, 2002-2008
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7. Books and travel are the top three most popular
products bought online in Europe
“Which of the following products have you bought online in the past three months?”
Books 18% Books 32%
Leisure
14% Videos/DVDs 31%
travel
Leisure travel
Clothing 13% (flights, 29%
package
Books 24% Clothing 16%
Leisure
Videos/DVDs 24% 12%
travel
Leisure travel 23% Books 12%
Base: 12,295 EU online adults
Note: EU-5 includes individuals in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Source: European Technographics Benchmark Survey, Q2 2008
7 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.

8. Forecast: European eCommerce, 2008 to 2013
Forecast
Actual
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total European online
€124.1 €136.0 €151.2 €163.6 €174.7 €186.1
sales (€ billions)
Apparel €16.2 €17.4 €19.1 €20.5 €21.6 €22.8
Clothing €14.1 €15.1 €16.5 €17.6 €18.6 €19.6
Footwear €1.8 €2 €2.2 €2.4 €2.6 €2.8
Jewelry/watches €0.3 €0.3 €0.4 €0.4 €0.5 €0.5
Electronics & Electrical €24.4 €27.0 €30.2 €33.0 €35.5 €38.1
Computer hardware €3.7 €3.8 €3.8 €3.8 €3.8 €3.7
Households appliances €2.2 €2.5 €2.8 €3.1 €3.4 €3.7
Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2008
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9. However, the opportunity is much larger
Mastering What’s Important Now Evolving to the Future
Forrester predicts that by 2012 nearly
half of US and Western EU retail
sales will either be transacted online
or influenced by the Web.
Source: apple.com
Truly differentiated eCommerce experiences will do to Web shopping what the
Apple Stores have done to bricks-and-mortar business.
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10. No longer enough to compete basics – the shift
will need focus on three new key drivers
Convenience Selection Service Control
Price Audience
Engagement
Integrated in a multichannel world
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11. Thank you
Victoria Bracewell Lewis
Senior Analyst
VBracewellLewis@forrester.co.uk
www.forrester.com
11 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.