Weitere ähnliche Inhalte Ähnlich wie Where do telecom operators go from here? (20) Kürzlich hochgeladen (20) Where do telecom operators go from here?4. How have Telco valuations changed post the credit crunch?
Since the 2007/8 financial crisis, Telcos have been the worst performing sector across 13 TMT industries,
bar one, down 14% on January 2008 levels.
By contrast the internet sector (e.g. Google, Amazon, eBay, Priceline) is up 250%.
And the software sector (e.g. SAP, Oracle and Salesforce) is up 120%.
TMT sector performance since the 2007/8 financial crash
Source: FT.com, CM Research. Bar chart shows cumulative sector performance from 1 January 2008 to the periods ending 31 December 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 30 September 2013 of a selection of stocks that we believe are bellwethers for each sector aggregated on an equal weighting basis.
Analysing Trends in Technology, Media and Telecoms
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11. The Big Data Technology Cycle: What is it?
Big Data is one technology cycle Telcos can
latch on to.
Big Data refers to data that cannot be analysed
on a traditional database.
Its scale is mind boggling.
90% of the stored data in the world today was
created in the last 2 years.
This data is created from hundreds of sources,
including emails, documents, apps, pictures,
videos, tweets, and credit card data.
Much of this data is unstructured which means
it cannot be easily compartmentalised by field.
Unstructured data – such as video – is difficult
to analyse because it depends on a machine
interpreting nuances that only humans can
truly understand.
For investors, the big money lies in developing
a Big Data Analytics Engines that can reliably
interpret these nuances in real time.
Categorising Big Data
Ease of use
Easy and cheap to analyse
Difficult or expensive to analyse
Requires extensive infrastructure
Classification
Structured data
Unstructured
data
Sensor data
(machine‐to‐machine)
Data type
Databases
XML data
Data warehouses
Enterprise systems
Social media
Voice, music & video
Documents
Email
RFID
GPS
QR
Temperature
Source: CM Research
Analysing Trends in Technology, Media and Telecoms
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14. The Big Data Technology Cycle: Winners and losers
Internet companies
The big Internet companies control where the data comes from and where it goes to. Amazon, Baidu,
Facebook and Google may soon sell lucrative, proprietary Big Data Analytics services to end users.
Data storage, networking and hardware companies
Hardware makers like Cisco, Dell, Lenovo and HP are investing heavily in Big Data appliances. Data storage
companies like EMC and NetApp could benefit from the explosion in data.
Enterprise software companies
Open‐source database platforms like Hadoop threaten Oracle, IBM and SAP. Cloud database services like
Salesforce.com are likely to be the fastest growth sector this year within the enterprise software space.
Cyber security companies
Cyber‐attacks remain the biggest investment risk faced by players in the Big Data space. When the CEO of a
FTSE 100 company is fired for failing to prevent a big cyber attack, cyber security share prices will take off.
Telecom operators
As more business‐critical data flows through the cloud, Telcos should – in theory – gain more pricing power
when carrying that data. But machine‐to‐machine (M2M) revenues are likely to be regulated. The trick for
Telcos is to create a Big Data Analytics product that is unregulated and can provide a growing revenue
stream. That requires heavy investment in software.
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18. The SDN Technology Cycle: Winners and losers
Telecom equipment
SDN’s open hardware standards threaten to commoditise the telecom equipment sector, most of which still
promotes closed, proprietary systems. Cisco has the most to lose: it supplies 59% of the world’s switches,
53% of its routers and 52% of its data centre equipment. To survive, Cisco will have to transform from a
hardware company into a software company. But, as with most such transitions, revenues and earnings may
dip in the process. In mobile equipment, Ericsson and Nokia are also under threat.
Servers and network storage
SDN technology could reduce high‐value servers to generic white boxes. This threatens the big server
makers IBM, HP and Dell. The proprietary network storage systems of EMC and NetApp could be made
obsolete by open software‐defined‐storage standards.
Software
The software sector will be the biggest beneficiary of SDN. Cloud software companies like Facebook,
Google, Netflix and Salesforce will be able to programme networks to enhance their web services. Cyber‐
security companies like Check Point, Verint and Fortinet will see ballooning demand for their products.
Telecom operators
If SDN technologies allow Telcos to transform into a network version of Apple’s App Store where third party
developers create new network applications, Telcos may profit from an innovation boom. But if regulators
cap the returns Telcos can make from their infrastructure investment, the bulk of the profits will flow to the
Internet companies who will be able to programme the network in a way that enhances their own services.
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