PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics

PV Manufacturing in Europe Conference
19 & 19 May 2017 – BIP, Rue Royale 2-4, Brussels

Program
• Global PV Market and Industry status
• Gaëtan Masson, Becquerel Institute, ETIP PV Vice-Chairman
• Solar Photovoltaics – A driver for decarbonisation and where it is manufactured
• Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, European Commission JRC
• Implementation Plan of the PV Temporary Working Group
• Christoph Hünnekes, PV TWG Chairman
• 100 % Renewables in Europe
• Christian Breyer, LUT
• International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV)
• Axel Metz, ITRPV

Program
• Silicon Solar Cells – Current Production and Future Concepts
• Martin Hermle, Fraunhofer ISE
• Epitaxial Wafers: A game-changing technology on its way to mass production
• Stefan Reber, Nexwafe
• C3PV – From Space Solar Cells to CPV Systems
• Gerhard Strobl, AZUR SPACE Solar Power
• Technology Game Changers
• Javier Sanz, InnoEnergy
• 3sun: innovative advanced tecnology factory for pv module R(e)volution
• Andrea Canino, 3SUN and Enel Green Power

PV Markzttan Masson, Director
Becquerel Institute
Global PV Markets &
Industry Status
Ir Gaëtan Masson
Director, Becquerel Institute
Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform

2
ETIP-PV 2017 Becquerel Institute
2
BECQUEREL INSTITUTE
• Research oriented Institute and
consulting company for Solar PV
Technologies.
• Global PV Market Analysis including
competitiveness and economics.
• Industry analysis together with quality &
reliability.
• Integration into electricity systems (grids
and markets).
• In-house experts / Global network of
experts and stakeholders
• PV Market Alliance partner

3
3
DYING UTILITIERevolution
Dead technologies
Dying utilities

4
4
FROM 1.1 TO 75 GW IN 12 YEARS ?
75 GW
5%
PV Market Alliance 2017
303 GW

5
5
75 GW INSTALLED IN 2016
IEA-PVPS 2017

6
6
FROM 2015 TO 2016
- China grew 15 to 34 GW
- US grew from 7 to 14,7 GW
- Japan went down from 11 to 8,6 GW
- Europe went down from 8 to 6 GW
- India doubled at 4 GW
- RoW was stable

7
7
QUARTERLY INSTALLATIONS 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 - Q1 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - Q4
GW
Quarterly PV Market in 2016
Rest of the World
Other Asian
India
Japan
China
Source: Becquerel Institute 2017

8
8
PV PENETRATION
IEA-PVPS 2017

9
9
PERSPECTIVES
Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016
75

10
10
PERSPECTIVES
>>> The cheapest source of electricity
Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016

11
11
MARKET DRIVERS
PV market developments in …
- China ?
- Japan – stable or decreasing
- US – uncertain after 2017
- India growing
- Europe – stable or growing?
- RoW: stable or growing

12
12
TECHNOLOGIES

13
13
TECHNOLOGIES

14
14
COMING SOON

15
15
COSTS AND PRICES

16
16
ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE
What about the costs ?

17
17
PV PRICE LEARNING CURVE
0,4 USD/Wp
97%
production
37% LC
20% LC
0,45 USD/WP – 275 GW
0,38 USD/WP – 300 GW

18
18
4.2. THIN FILM LEARNING CURVES

19
19
PRICE EVOLUTION OF PV COMPONENTS
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
PV Grade Polysilicon
(9N/9N+)
156 mm Multi cSi
Solar Wafer
156 mm Mono cSi
Solar Wafer
156 mm Mono cSi
Solar Wafer Outside
China
Multi cSi Cell Mono cSi Cell Multi cSi Solar
Module
USD/W
Q3 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q4 2016

20
20
PRICE AND MARKET SITUATION
- Low module prices reflect uncertainty and
overcapacities. But what over the other steps of
the value chain?
- High demand in Q1 2017 in China could mean a
growing market depending on Q3-Q4. Uncertainty
again.
- Time to unlock new markets if demand goes down
is > 1 year. Faster this time? Non-tier-1 markets
are not growing fast.

21
21
FOOD FOR THOUGHTS

22
22
SENSITIVITY OF LCOE
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
Contribution to the LCOE per components in absolute value (LCOE = 0,107 EUR/kWh)
1 EUR/WP CAPEX
30 EUR/Wp OPEX
6% Nominal WACC
1100 kWh/kWp Yield

23
23
TECHNOLOGY VIEW
Evolution of efficiencies change the market
conditions: from nov 2015

24
24
GAME CHANGER?
Evolution of efficiencies change the market
conditions: thin film CdTe become more competitive
while all efficiencies are improving.

25
25
CONCLUSIONS
Will we reach more than 75 GW ? Yes but when?
China is the key market to follow.
And the speed at which the market can develop.
Technologies are not eternal.
Leaders are also under pressure.
The future is open 

26
26
ENJOY THE SUN EVEN IF…

g.masson@becquerelinstitute.org
Becquerelinstitute.org
www.pvmarketalliance.com
Thank you for
your attention

Joint Research Centre
the European Commission's in-house science service
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting legislation
Solar Photovoltaics
–
A driver for decarbonisation
and where it is
manufactured
Arnulf Jäger-Waldau
PV manufacturing in Europe
Conference
Brussels 19 May 2017

JRC’s Mission and Role
Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation
Vision:
"To play a central role in creating, managing
and making sense of the collective scientific
knowledge for better EU policy."

The Joint Research Centre
€ 386 million Budget
annually,
plus € 62 million
earned
income
125
instances of support
to the EU policy-
maker
annually
6
locations in 5 Member
States: Italy, Belgium,
Germany,
The Netherlands, Spain
1500
core research staff, out of
around 3000 total staff
Over 1,400
scientific publications per
year
JRC
83%
Of core research staff with
PhD's
42
lаrge scale research
facilities, more than 110
online databases
More than 100
economic, bio-physical
and nuclear models
30% of activities in
policy preparation, 70%
in implementation
Focus on the priorities
of the Commission (80%
of activities co-designed
with partner DG's)
Independent of
private, commercial
or national interests
Policy neutral: has no
policy agenda of its
own

Contents
• Why Decarbonisation of Electricity
• Technology Trends
• PV Manufacturing
• Capacity Expansion
• Report on Assessment of Photovoltaics
Study
• Conclusions

Why
Decarbonisation of
Electricity

Electricity Demand Projection
Data source: IEA WEO 2106
2014: ~ 23,800 TWh
2040: ~ 39,000 TWh

Electricity Demand in Buildings
Data source: IEA WEO 2106

Carbon Intensity of Electricity
Data source: NPS IEA WTO 2106

Carbon Intensity of Electricity
Data source: NPS IEA WTO 2106
BUT
Needed for 1.5ºC Scenario:
Below 65g/kWh

GHG emissions of Electricity
Data source: IEA WTO 2106
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2040
NPS
2040
450ppm
GHGemissions[Gt]
total GHG
total Energy
Electricity
27%
42% 37% 20%

Thin Films
Commercial CdTe modules
Q1/2012 (12.4%)
Q1/2017 (16.7%) +34.7%
Commercial CIGS modules
2010: between 7 and 11%
Q1 2017: between 12 and 15.1%
Commercial silicon tf modules
2010: between 5 and 8%
Q1 2017: between 5 and 11%

Crystalline Silicon
Polysilicon
Siemens Process 2016: 65 –125 kWh/kg
FBR 2016: 20 – 50 kWh/kg
Power Output per Wafer
mc : 2011 (4.02W) 2016(4.78W) +18.9%
mono : 2011 (4.27W) 2016(5.01W) +17.3%
Polysilicon consumption of wafers
mc : 2011 (5.92g) 2016 (4.70g) – 20.6%
mono : 2011 (5.71g) 2016 (4.30g) – 24.7 %

Crystalline Silicon
Average Cell Efficiency
mc : 2012 (17.0%) 2016(18.9%) +11.2%
mono: 2012 (18.6%) 2016(20.9%) +12.4%
Average Module Efficiency
mc : 2012 (15.1%) 2016(17.5%) +15.9 %
mono: 2012 (15.6%) 2016(18.3%) +17.3%

Crystalline Silicon
New Production Technologies
• Passivated Emitter Rear Cells (PERC)
• 4 and 5 busbar solar cells (4BB, 5BB)
• Heterojunction Solar Cells
• Bifacial Solar Cells

Annual PV Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
AnnualProduction[GW]
Year
Rest of World
United States
Malaysia
Japan
Europe
Taiwan
PR China

Module Price Experience Curve
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
PVModulePrice[USD2016/Wp]
Cumulative Module Production [MW]
Crystalline Silion
FS CdTe Thin Film
2008
2008
2008
New technologies
must enter here
to be competitive
2008
2016
2008
1975
2008
1986
2014 Spot Prices

Solar Cell and Thin Film manufacturing in EU and Turkey
Name of Company
Country of
Production
Cell Capacity
[MW]
Module Capacity
[MW]
Ownership
Solarworld DE, USA 1070 (320) 950 (550)
29% Quatar Solar
20.85% Dr. Asbeck
50.15% free float
China Sunergy CN, TR 800 (300) 900 (300)
OTC traded
n/a
Aleo Solar DE 200 200
Sino-American Silicon
Products (TW)
AVANCIS (tf) DE 120 120
China National Building
Materials Group Corporation
(CN)
Solland NL 135 135 Trina Solar (CN)
3SUN IT (tf & HJ) 160 (80) 160 (80) ENEL Green Power (IT)
Solibro DE 120 120 Hanergy (CN)
Calyxo (tf) DE 85 85 Solar Fields (USA)
Photowatt FR 75 75 EDF Group (FR)
Baltic Solar
Energy LT 70 70 private
Solsonica IT 40 144
GALA Group (PTC with
14.46 free float)
Solarion (tf) DE 20 20
OC3 AG, a subsidiary of
Turkish NUH Group (TR)
Solaria Energia
y Medio Ambiente SL ES ? (250) ? (250) PTC n/a

CAPEX Development
Cell & Module Manufacturing
Year
Capacity
[MW] Country
CAPEX
[mil. USD]
CAPEX/W
[USD]
2011 1 000 USA 680 0.68
1 000 China 510 0.51
2014 1 000 USA 430 0.43
2015 1 000 China 190 0.19
2016 1 000 China
60
hardware only 0.06
2017 600 China
97
N-HJ
(hardware + tf
infrastructure) 0.162

Capacity Expansion
Technology
(in order of announced MWs)
• PERC
• "standard c-Si technology"
• CdTe
• CIGS
• HJ
• Bifacial

Capacity Expansion
Where are the new plants build
(top 5 in order of announced MWs)
• India
• South Korea
• China
• Thailand
• Malaysia

Assessment of Photovoltaics (PV)
Study
2015/RTD/SC/PP-03601-2015
• Assessment of the current
situation of the PV sector in
Europe and worldwide
• Identification of options for a
strategy to rebuild the EU PV
manufacturing sector

Possible Implementation Measures

Conclusions
• Decarbonisation of Energy sector mandatory for fullfilling the
Paris Agreement
• Solar is one of the pillars to achieve this decarbonisation
• PV technology has made significant progress. In all
technologies the progress has been greater than predicted in
various roadmaps.
• Further material reduction per Wp ongoing
• PV cell and thin film capacity still larger than demand
• Shift of PV production

› Implementation Plan of the PV Temporary Working
Group
Christoph Hünnekes, Wim Sinke, Fabio Belloni

Content
› The SET Plan
› Declaration of Intent (DoI)
› TWP PV
› Implementation Plan (IP)
› Next Steps

What's the SET Plan?
› Key innovation pillar of the Energy Union
› Comprehensive energy R&I agenda to accelerate innovation
and the energy transition
› Better alignment of European and National R&I programmes
thus making better use of existing resources
› Integrated approach: going beyond technology silos
› Setting priorities: focus on specific targets
›
But
› The SET Plan is not a funding instrument
3

Energy Union and SET Plan priorities
Energy Union R&I and
competitiveness pillar
SET Plan 10 Key Actions
SET Plan Declarations of Intent /
Working Groups
Nº 1 in renewables
Develop highly performant renewables • PV
• Offshore wind
• CSP
• Ocean
• Deep geothermal
Reduce cost of key renewable
technologies
Smart EU energy system with
consumers at the centre
Create new technologies and services for
energy consumers
• Energy consumers
• Smart cities and communities
Increase the integration, security and
flexibility of energy systems
• Integrated and flexible energy
systems
Efficient energy systems
Increase energy efficiency for buildings
• Energy efficiency in buildings
• Heating and cooling in buildings
Increase energy efficiency in industry • Energy efficiency in industry
Sustainable transport
Become competitive in the battery sector for
e-mobility and stationary storage
• Batteries for e-mobility and
stationary storage
Strengthen market take-up of renewable
fuels and bioenergy
• Renewable fuels and bioenergy
Carbon capture storage / use
Step-up R&I activities and commercial
viability of CCS/U
• Carbon capture storage / use
Nuclear safety Increase nuclear safety • Nuclear safety
4

Main SET Plan steps
SET Plan 10 Key Actions:
Communication Sept. 2015
Setting targets: Declarations of Intent
Set-up of temporary Working Groups:
R&I activities to reach the targets
Implementation Plans (R&I activities, Flagships, and
monitoring mechanisms)
Actions mainly at national level (Joint R&I Actions or
by individual countries) and at EU level only when
there's a clear added value
5

Declaration of Intent
› Targets
(adaption following the discussion at the TWG PV kick-off meeting)
6

Declaration of Intent
› Targets
(adaption following the discussion at the TWG PV kick-off meeting)
7

Temporary Working Group
› Composition
› 11 Member States representatives (Cypress, Belgium, Estonia, France,
Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Turkey)
› Representatives of the E.C.:
› from DG RTD, DG ENER and JRC
› Stakeholder from industry (10) and research (5)
9

› Role of SET Plan countries and stakeholders
participating in the WG
› Support the preparation of the Implementation Plan
› Provide information on ongoing R&I activities (among which at
least one Flagship)
› Identify new R&I activities necessary to reach the targets
› Highlighting concrete non-technological barriers/enablers
experienced in their country
› Seeking options for joint programming and funding in specific areas
by groups of member states and private stakeholders
› Sharing their experience, if any, in monitoring the targets
10

› SET Plan countries not participating in the WG are kept
informed about the progress
› Regular updates will be provided in SG meetings
› Implementation Plans must be discussed and endorsed by the
SG
11

Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities to be carried out
› Crucial aspect of the Plan!
› Maximum 10 R&I activities to be selected
› how to select the R&I activities:
› bottom-up approach
› first discussion at kick-off meeting,
› DoI is starting point of discussion, furthermore the EU Integrated
Roadmap, Solar ERA-Net guidelines, ITRPV Roadmap, …
› Identification of precise non-technological barriers/enablers
13

Implementation Plan
› Selection of R&I activities
14
6 activities

Implementation Plan
15
Activity Description
PV for BIPV and
similar applications
This proposal aims at developing a market pull approach for
innovative and integrated PV solutions that will allow a faster
market uptake of new PV technologies and a more intensive and
multi-functional use of the available surface in Europe.
On the one hand, for BIPV it seems likely that thin film
technologies (especially CIGS) seems to be well suited.
Therefore, a combined development of thin film and BIPV is
suggested. On the other hand, BIPV solutions based on other
PV technologies should be developed. Sub-activities could cover
bifacial applications and PV installations on roads & waterways.

Implementation Plan
16
Technologies for
Silicon Solar Cells
and Modules with
higher quality
Silicon wafer based PV hold by far the highest PV market share.
The aim of this activity is to implement advanced laboratory
technologies for high-performance silicon-based cells (≥24%)
and modules in high-throughput industrial manufacturing
processes, materials and equipment. This will also enable
European PV industry to consolidate and expand its position.
Sub-activities could cover PREX and HJT technologies as well
as bifacial applications and environmental aspects.

Implementation Plan
17
New Technologies &
Materials
Crystalline silicon based solar cells are reaching their theoretical
efficiency limit. The most promising approach to expand these
limit are silicon based tandem technologies. The best options
for top cell materials seem to be III/V semiconductors and
perowskit solar cells.
The aim of this activity is to raise these technologies on an
economic level. Therefore the cell processing needs to be
scaled on industrial level and the cost needs to be reduced.
New materials and the combination of two cell technologies
need new interlayer development. Also the quality needs to be
enhanced in terms of less degradation. In the end the
environmental impact of these new materials needs to be
evaluated.

Implementation Plan
18
Development of PV
power plants and
diagnostic
The aim of this activity is to develop and demonstrate
business models and streamline the processes for effective
operation and maintenance for residential and small
commercial plants in order to keep the plant performance and
availability high over the expected lifetime. Especially advanced
monitoring is key, due to incompatibility and the accompanying
extra costs this is often not done according to good industry
practices.
Manufacturing
technologies (for cSi
and thin film)
A further reduction of costs for Silicon wafer based PV and
Thin Film technologies will rely on the implementation of high-
throughput industrial manufacturing processes. Advances in
the field will also strengthen the European manufacturing
industry. Sub-activities could cover aspects of Industry 4.0.

Implementation Plan
19
Cross-sectoral
research at lower
TRL
With respect to high level R&D, European research labs are still
the leading institutions worldwide. A closer cooperation of
these labs could help maintaining this position in order to
support European industry with cutting edge research results.
On a topical level activity 6 covers all the other activities
selected by the TWG PV.

Implementation Plan
› Funding
› Main source: National level (e.g. Governmental funding, stakeholders’
funding, or a combination of both)
› When there’s a clear EU added value: by EU sources, provided that R&I
activities are commensurate with relevant policies endorsed by the EU
legislative bodies and with the mandate of the EC
› Joint R&I activities between SET Plan countries (with or without EU
funds) should be an important dimension of the Implementation Plans
According to the EC Implementation Plan template, the WG
needs to specify who will implement what, with which
resources, and when. This is a critical aspect.
20

Next Steps
› Set up subgroups on each activity which work on an detailed
description of activities by End of June ´17 containing
› targets
› monitoring mechanism
› total budget required
› deliverables and timeline
› Implementation instruments and indicative financing contribution
› July / August ´17: drafting of IP
› August / September ´17: revision of the draft within the TWG PV
› September ´17: draft IP provided for the SET-Plan secretariat
21

Bildnachweis Titelfolie:
3D-Montage: Projektträger Jülich, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
Motive v.l.n.r.: PN_Photo/iStock/Thinkstock, palau83/iStock/Thinkstock, ©istockphoto.com/vithib, IvanMikhaylov/iStock/Thinkstock
› Contacts
› Chair Christoph Hünnekes (DE), ch.huennekes@fz-juelich.de
› Co-Chair Wim Sinke (ETIP PV), sinke@ecn.nl
› E.C. Fabio Belloni, fabio.belloni@ec.europa.eu

100% RENEWABLES IN EUROPE
Christian Breyer
Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland
European Technology & Innovation Platform - Photovoltaic
Brussels, May 19 2017

2 100% Renewables in Europe
Christian Breyer ► christian.breyer@lut.fi @ChristianOnRE
Agenda
 Global Scenarios / Current Status in Europe
 LUT Energy System Model
 100% Renewable Power Sector – Overnight
 100% Renewable Power Sector – Transition
 Summary

We witness the start of the Solar Age
Comments:
• Most global energy scenarios
do not yet see that reality
• LUT results clearly indicate a
solar century and PV as the
key energy technology
• Europe will follow that global
trend, depite of good wind
(and weak policies)

Global Energy Scenarios: Selected Overview
source: Child M., Koskinen O., et al., 2017. Sustainability Guardrails for
Energy Scenarios of the Global Energy Transition, submitted
Key insights:
• 100% RE: Greenpeace, WWF, Jacobson et al.: demand strongly deviates, PV and wind dominated, no hourly resolution
• IEA, WEC, Shell: not COP21 compatible, high nuclear shares, low solar shares, no hourly resolution

Current status of the power plant mix
Key insights:
• new installations dominated by
renewables
• nuclear as niche technology for years
• still some new coal capacities
• overall trend very positive
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural changes of global power generation
capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a
sustainability indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Aging of European Power Plant Infrastructure as an
Opportunity to evolve towards Sustainability, International Journal of Hydrogen
Energy, in press

Agenda
 Summary

100% Renewables in Europe
7
LUT Energy System Model
Full system
Renewable energy sources
• PV rooftop (RES, COM, IND)
• PV ground-mounted
• PV single-axis tracking
• Wind onshore/ offshore
• Hydro run-of-river
• Hydro dam
• Geothermal energy
• CSP
• Waste-to-energy
• Biogas
• Biomass
Electricity transmission
• node-internal AC transmission
• interconnected by HVDC lines
Storage options
• Batteries
• Pumped hydro storage
• Adiabatic compressed air storage
• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat
• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas
• Water electrolysis
• Methanation
• CO2 from air
• Gas storage
Energy Demand
• Electricity
• Water Desalination
• Industrial Gas

8
Key Objectives
Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply
• optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources,
• optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and world structured into 145 sub-regions globally,
• optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system,
• least cost energy supply for the given constraints.
LUT Energy System model, key features
• linear optimization model
• hourly resolution
• multi-node approach
• flexibility and expandability
• enables energy transition modeling
• overnight scenarios
• energy transition scenarios in 5-year steps
Input data
• historical weather data for: solar irradiation,
wind speed and hydro precipitation
• available sustainable resources for biomass and
geothermal energy
• synthesized power load data
• non-energetic industrial gas and water
desalination demand
• efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants
• efficiency of energy conversion processes
• capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources
• min and max capacity limits for all RE resources
• nodes and interconnections configuration

9
publications peer-reviewed
• Examples of research with LUT energy model published in peer-reviewed journals (10 in total)
Breyer et al., 2017 Gulagi et al. ,2017 Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016

10
Data – Financial Assumptions
• Capex variation based on
learning curves
• Least cost power plant
capacities based on
• Cost
• Efficiency of generation
and storage
• Power to energy ratio of
storage
• Available resource
• WACC is set to 7% for all
years
• Fuel costs
• 47.3 €/MWhth for oil (~100
USD/bbl in 2020 and
~+2.1%/a)
• 22.2 €/MWhth for gas (in
2020 and ~+3.0%/a) Variation in capex from 2015 – 2050 for all power plant components
utilised by model. Detailed capex, fixed opex, efficiency and power to
energy ratio numbers are presented at end of slide set
source: Gulagi A., et al., 2017. The Demand for Storage Technologies in Energy Transition
Pathways Towards 100% Renewable Energy for India, IRES, Düsseldorf

11
Data – Financial Assumptions: PV update
• capex variation based on learning curves, market growth
• PV capex has been continuously too high in own work during the last 10 years
• PV most important in energy transition scenarios, hence very good capex understanding required
• now split into 5 types of PV segments (rooftop RES/ COM/ IND, ground-mounted fixed, tracking)
source: ETIP-PV, 2017. The True Competitiveness
of Solar PV – A European Case Study

Agenda
 Summary

13
Results: Global view for Overnight 2030
source: Breyer Ch., Bogdanov D., et al., 2017. On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in
Global Energy Transition Scenarios, Progress in Photovoltaics

14
Scenarios assumptions
Generation profile (area integrated) for Europe
PV generation profile
Aggregated area profile computed using earlier
presented weighed average rule.
Wind onshore generation profile
Aggregated area profile computed using
earlier presented weighed average rule.
Key insights:
• seasonal complementary of PV and wind
source: Breyer Ch., Child M., et al., 2016. A low-cost power system for Europe based on
renewable electricity, European Utility Week, Barcelona, November 15-17

15
Results
Regions Electricity Generation and Storage (year 2030) – area-wide open trade
Key insights:
• significant role of hydropower generation in Nordic countries, Austria, Switzerland, Balkan East, Turkey
• solar PV represents approximately 29% of total energy generation
• >50% wind share in Baltic, Germany, Benelux, Denmark, British Isles, France, Ukraine
• wind has largest role in total generation across regions (48-50%)
• existing PHS storage plays significant role
• relative share of prosumer batteries increases in integration scenario in several regions
Area-wide open trade
source: Breyer Ch., Child M., et al., 2016. A low-cost power system for Europe based on renewable electricity, European Utility Week, Barcelona, November 15-17

16
Results
Total LCOE (year 2030) – Area-wide open trade total
Key insights:
• Energy Union reduces the
cost by about 10%
• same assumptions but
without grids between the
countries leads to 56.2 €/MWh
• comparable cost levels
across Europe
source: Breyer Ch., Child M., et al., 2016. A low-cost power system for Europe based on
renewable electricity, European Utility Week, Barcelona, November 15-17

17
Regions LCOE
region-
wide
LCOE
area-wide
Integra-
tion
benefit **
Storage
*
Regional
grid
trade*
Curtail-
ment
PV
prosu-
mers*
PV
system
*
Wind * Biomass * Hydro*
[€/MWh] [€/MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%]
Northeast Asia 63 56 6.0% 7% 10% 5% 16.4% 35.4% 40.9% 2.9% 11.6%
Southeast Asia 67 64 9.5% 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6%
India/ SAARC 72 67 5.9% 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4%
Eurasia 63 53 23.2% <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4%
Europe 56 51 11.2% 7% 16% 3% 18.1% 11.1% 51.7% 6.4% 14.1%
MENA 61 55 10.8% <1% 10% 5% 1.8% 46.4% 48.4% 1.3% 1.1%
Sub-Saharan Africa 58 55 16.2% 4% 8% 4% 16.2% 34.1% 31.1% 7.8% 8.2%
North America 63 53 10.1% 1% 24% 4% 11.0% 19.8% 58.4% 3.7% 6.8%
South America 62 55 7.8% 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1%
Overview on World’s Regions: Overnight 2030
Key insights:
• 100% RE is highly competitive
• least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand
• PV share typically around 40% (range 15-51%)
• hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated
• flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further
decrease with heat and mobility sector integration
• most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 3-24%) sources: see www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
* Integrated scenario, supply share
** annualised costs, results from
older simulation

Cost comparison of ’cleantech’ solutions
source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option;
Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174
Key insights:
• PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option
• nuclear and coal-CCS are too expensive
• nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies
• 100% RE systems are highly cost competitive
Preliminary NCE results
clearly indicate 100%
RE systems cost about
55-70 €/MWh for 2030
cost assumptions on
comparable basis
source: Breyer Ch., Bogdanov D., et al.,
2017. On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in
Global Energy Transition Scenarios,
Progress in Photovoltaics

Agenda
 Summary

20
Energy Transition Modeling Towards Sustainable Power Sector
Christian Breyer► Christian.Breyer@lut.fi
Energy Transition Modeling: Europe
Key insights:
• energy system transition model for 145 regions forming 92 countries
• results here are for Europe (in limits of IS, PT, TR, UA, EE, FI)
• LCOE decline on energy system level driven by wind/PV + battery
• beyond 2030 solar PV grows much more than wind energy
• wind and PV + battery finally run the system more and more
• solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 45% as least cost
• capacities in 2050: solar PV of ~2000 GWp and wind of ~600 GW
• LCOE of 54 €/MWh are further reduced to 46 €/MWh for 2050 cost

21
Energy Transition Modeling: Europe

22
Energy Transition Modeling: Global and Europe
Key insights:
• 1.0% electricity share by 2015
• Strong growth till 2030 would be possible
• By 2050 solar PV could be the dominating source of electricity
• Canada is still in progress for simulations
• Countries in the Sun Belt would be almost fully dominated by
solar PV, e.g. Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Central America
• Regions of strong seasons and excellent wind show lower PV
values, as well as the few hydro power and geotherrmal regions
• solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 70% (!!) as least cost

23
Energy Transition Modeling: Global and Europe
Key insights:
• Total LCOE by 2050 around 50 €/MWh (incl. generation,
storage, curtailment, some grid cost)
• 60% ratio of primary generation cost to total LCOE
• Total PV installed capacity around 22 TWp (ONLY for
today’s power sector)

Global Internet of Energy
Global Internet of Energy: http://neocarbonenergy.fi/internetofenergy/#

Global Internet of Energy: Europe
Global Internet of Energy: http://neocarbonenergy.fi/internetofenergy/#

Agenda
 Summary

27
Summary
• Total LCOE on a European average is around 54 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (incl.
generation, curtailment and storage) – further reduced to 46 €/MWh for 2050 cost
• Solar PV share can reach about 45% by 2050 in electricity supply (equal to ~2000 GWp)
• Battery investments enable a high solar PV share, driven by prosumers
• Sector integration and Energy Union further decreases the cost
• Wind energy may not grow anymore much after 2030-2040
• Seasonal variations are the key reason for keeping wind energy in the system
• 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option!
Personal note:
• Policy failures caused the loss of almost all European manufacturing capacities for the
number 1 global energy technology in this century
• This unacceptable status has to be fixed, asap.

Thank you for your attention …
… and to the team!
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding
Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14.
all publications at: www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
new publications also announced via Twitter: @ChristianOnRE

30
Energy Transition Modeling: Global
Key insights:
• energy system transition model for 145 regions forming 92 countries
• LCOE decline on energy system level driven by PV + battery
• beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more comeptitve than wind energy
• solar PV + battery finally runs the system more and more
• solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 70% (!!) as least cost

31
Energy Transition Modeling: Global

Temporal Resolution in Global Scenarios
Key insights:
• no global report exists in full hourly resolution
• all kinds of flexibility cannot be modelled
without proper temporal resolution:
• resource complementarity
• supply side management
• demand side management
• grids
• storage
• sector coupling
• three global energy system modeling
publications had hourly resolution: two
dissertations and the first article of Plessman &
Breyer et al.
• having no detailed global scenario in proper
temporal resolution is a major failure of the
energy system modeling community in
discussing the climate change mitigation
options
source: Koskinen O. and Breyer Ch., 2016. Energy Storage in Global
and Transcontinental Energy Scenarios: A Critical Review,
Energy Procedia, 99, 53-63

100% RE Scenarios: Country to Global
Listed by Heard et al., 2017. Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems, RSER
Mason et al. [9,104] 2010, 2013 J New Zealand
Australian Energy Market Operator (1) [8] 2013 R Australia (NEM–only)
Australian Energy Market Operator (2) [8] 2013 R Australia (NEM–only)
Jacobson et al. [112] 2015 J USA
Wright and Hearps [60] 2010 R Australia (total)
Fthenakis et al. [133] 2009 J USA
Allen et al. [27] 2013 R UK
Connolly et al. [19] 2011, 2014 J Ireland
Fernandes and Ferreira [119] 2014 J Portugal
Krajacic et al. [20] 2011 J Portugal
Esteban et al. [17] 2012 J Japan
Budischak et al. [118] 2013 J USA - PJM Interconnection
Elliston et al. [22] 2013 J Australia (NEM–only)
Lund and Mathiesen [16] 2009 J Denmark
Cosic et al. [11] 2012 J Macedonia
Elliston et al. [75] 2012 J Australia (NEM–only)
Jacobsen et al. [18] 2013 J USA - New York State
Price Waterhouse Coopers [10] 2010 R Europe and North Africa
European Renewable Energy Council [26] 2010 R EU27
ClimateWorks [116] 2014 R Australia
World Wildlife Fund [108] 2011 R Global
Jacobsen and Delucchi [24,25] 2011 J Global
Jacobson et al. [113] 2014 J California
Greenpeace (Teske et al.) [15] 2012, 2015 R,J Global

Missing in Heard et al., 2017:
Blakers et al. 2012 J Southeast Asia & Australia
Huber et al. 2015 J ASEAN
Bussar et al. 2014, 2015 J EU-MENA
Grossmann et al. 2014 J Americas
Scholz 2012 D Europe & North Africa
Rasmussen et al. 2012 J Europe
ECF 2010 R Europe & North Africa
Czisch 2005 D Europe, North Africa
Troendle 2014 D Europe
Aboumahboub 2012 D Global
Matthew & Patrick 2010 R Australia
Henning & Palzer 2014 J Germany
ADEME 2015, 2016 R France
Plessmann et al. 2014 J Global
Child & Breyer 2016 J Finland
Bogdanov & Breyer 2015, 2016 J Northeast Asia
Gulagi et al. 2017 J Southeast Asia
Barbosa et al. 2017 J South America
Breyer et al. 2017 J Global
Barbosa et al. 2016 J Brazil
Plessmann & Blechinger 2017 J EU28
Gulagi et al. 2017 J East Asia
WWF 2015 R Uganda
Aghahosseini et al. 2016 C North America
Aghahosseini et al. 2016 C MENA
Bogdanov & Breyer 2015 C Eurasia
Gulagi et al. 2016 C India/ SAARC
Barasa et al. 2016 C Sub-Saharan Africa
Oyewo et al. 2017 C Nigeria
Caldera et al. 2016 C Saudi Arabia
Aghahosseini et al. 2016 C Iran
Ghorbani et al. 2017 C Iran
Child et al. 2017 C Ukraine
Gulagi et al. 2017 C India
Lu et al. 2017 J Australia
Gils & Simon 2017 J Canary Islands
UBA 2010, 2013 R Germany
SEI 2009 R Europe
UBA 2014 R Germany, Europe
Breyer et al. 2014 R Germany
Teske et al. 2016 R Australia
Turner et al. 2013 J Australia
Moeller et al. 2014 J Berlin-Brandenburg
Mathiesen et al. 2015 J Denmark
Lund et al. 2011 R Denmark
Child et al. 2017 J Åland
Please send me more documents, in case you think one
is missing: journal articles, reports, dissertations,
conference papers

Key insights:
• rather new field of research
• several papers are expected to miss
• good coverage in journals
• not much research on global level
• most major world regions are not yet covered
• Europe seems to be understood best (region
and country-wise)
• Australia shows highest country records (10)
• most countries are still ’terra incognita’
Special comments:
• Jacobson et al. produce country results, but
non-hourly analysis leads to respective results
• Breyer et al. are currently working on 145
regions, aggregated to 92 countries in full
hourly resolution and energy transition in 5-
year steps for 100% RE in 2050 for power sector

Batteries and EVs – Very high dynamics
Global EVs in use
Key insights:
• Batteries convert PV into flexible 24/7 technology
• Batteries show same high learning rates as PV
• Highly module technology – phone to storage plant
• Extremely fast mobility revolution (fusion of
renewables, modularity, digitalization, less complex)
• high growth rates – fast cost decline
• least cost mobility solution from 2025 onwards
• Key reason for collapse of western oil majors
• 3rd key enabling technology for survival of humankind

Power-to-X – covering hydrocarbon demand
Electrolysis
CO2 reduction
process
Excess
electricity
H2O
O2
CO2
H2
H2O
CxHyOz
Q Q
Key insights:
• PtX enables sustainable production of hydrocarbons
• Ingredients: electricity, water, air
• w/o PtX COP21 agreement would be wishful thinking
• Profitability from 2030 onwards
• Flexible seasonal storage option
• Global hydrocarbon downstream infrastracture usable
• Most difficult sectors to decarbonise can be managed
with PtX (aviation, chemistry, agriculture, ect.)
• 4th key enabling technology for survival of humankind

38
Synfuels production in Maghreb
source: Fasihi M., et al., 2017. Long-Term Hydrocarbon Trade Options for the Maghreb Region and Europe
– Renewable Energy Based Synthetic Fuels for a Net Zero Emissions World, Sustainability, 9, 306

Source: www.siemens.com/presse
VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page
1 |
International Technology Roadmap
for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) 8th edition:
Crystalline Silicon Technology ̶
Current Status and Outlook
A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube
Brussels, May 19th 2017

Outline
Page
2 |
1. ITRPV Introduction
2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations
3. ITRPV – Results 2016
- Wafer
- Cell
- Module
- Systems
- Materials, Processes, Products
4. Summary and Outlook

Outline
- Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Materials, Processes, Products
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- Systems
Page
3 |

ITRPV – Methodology
Working group today includes 40 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US
Participating
companies
Independent data
collection / processing
by VDMA
Reviewof data
Preparationof publication
à regional chairs
Next
ITRPV
edition
SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM
Parameters in main areas are discussed à Diagrams of median values
Photovoltaic
Equipment
Page
4 |
Chairs EU
Chairs PRC
Chairs TW
Chairs US

Review ITRPV predictions
Review ITRPV predictions
Silver amount per cell
0,45
0,4
0,35
0,3
0,25
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition
W afer thickness (multi)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition
5 |
µm
ITRPV2017
ITRPV 8th Edition 2017 – some statistics
Edition 8th 7th
Contributors 40 33
Figures 60 50
Prediction quality since 2009:
Silver consumption trend à well predicted and realized
(Silver availability depends on world market)
Wafer thickness trend à bad predicted and no progress
(Poly-Si price depends on PV market development)
silverpercell[g/cell]
ITRPV2017

Outline
- Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products
- Systems
6 |

PV learning Curve
Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments
10-1 106
107
10-1 100
101
102
103
104
0.1
1
0.1
1
averagemodulesalesprice[USD2016/Wp]
100
105
106
ITRPV 2017
107
10
100
10
100
12 / 2016
101
102
103
104
105
cumulative PV module shipments [MW]
historic pricedata
LR 22.5 %
Shipments /avg. price at years end:
2016: 75 GWp / 0.37 US$/Wp
o/a shipment:
o/a installation:
≈ 308 GWp
≈ 300 GWp
300 GWp landmark was passed!
LR 21.5% (1976 …. 2016)
dramatic price drop due to market situation
à Comparable to 2011/2012, but faster
2012
300GWp
2011
Page 7 | 15 March 2017

Price considerations
ITRPV2017
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0
SpotPricing[USD/Wp]
Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module
Poly Si 26%
Poly Si 12%
Poly Si 24%
Wafer 29%
Wafer 23%
Wafer 16%
Cell 20%
Cell 23%
Cell 23%
Module
25% Module
42%
Module
37%
share 01_2011 share 01_2016 share 01_2017
à reduction 01/2011 à 01/2016: ≈ 64 %
à reduction 01/2016 à 01/2017: ≈ 36 %
(reduction 01/2011à 01/2012: ≈ 40 %)
Dramatic price drop during 2nd half of 2016
à Market driven drop
à Poly-Si share increased again
à High pressure on module
manufacturers
1.59 US$
0.58 US$
0.37 US$
Module price break down [US$/Wp]
ITRPV 2017
0,413
0,072 0,087
0,462
0,13
0,086
0,058
0,32
0,135
0,395
0,24
0,138
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
01_2011 01_2016 01_2017
Moduleprice(US$/Wp)
Module
Cell
Wafer
Poly Si
Page
8 |

Outline
- Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products
- Systems
Page
9 |

Silicon – Materials: Poly Si Feedstock Technology
Poly Si price trend:
E 2012: 20 US$/kg
≈14 US$/kg
à oversupply situation of 2016 relieved
à Siemens process will remain mainstream
FBR shows potential for cost reduction
à FBR share will be increased moderately
w/ new capacity
(2016 values in line w/ IHS Markit)
Other technologies (umg, epi growth, ..)
à Not yet mature but available
02/ 2017:
Trend: Share of poly-Si feedstock technology
Silicon feedstock technology
87%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017
Siemens
2019 2021 2024 2027
FBR other
VDMA | Author ITRPV 22001177 Page 10 |
ITRPV2017

Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (1)
90%
100%
110%
120%
160
140%
140
130%
120
150%
Trend:throughputcrystallization/wafering
Ingot mass in c2r0y1s6 tal grow20t1h7 2019 2021 2024
slurry based wire sawing
diamond wire based
2027
crystal growth per tool (mc-Si, mono-like, HPM)
relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h]
Trend: Kerf loss / TTV
ITRPV2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
2016 2017 2019
Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing [µm]
TTV for slurry-based wire sawing [µm]
2021 2024
Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing [µm]
TTV for diamond wire sawing [µm]
2027
[µm]
diamond wire sawing advantage:
à enable faster kerf reduction
No big change in thickness variation is expected
à Throughput increase in crystallization/wafering will continue
ITRPV2017
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2016 2017 2019
mc-Si
2021
mono-Si
2024 2027
[kg]
Gen 6
Gen 7
Gen 8
Page 11 | 18 April 2017
2017ITRP
V

Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (2)
diamond wire wafering now mainstream for mono-Si
à Throughut 2x – 3x faster than slurrybased
For mc-Si change to diamond wire is ongoing
à main challenge: texturing
For mono-Si
For mc-Si
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016
slurry based
2017 2019
electroplated diamonds
2021 2024
resin bond diamonds
2027
other
0%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2016
slurry based
2017 2019
electroplated diamonds
2021 2024
resin bond diamonds
2027
other
ITRPV2017
Page 12 |

Wafer – market share of wafer dimensions (new)
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017
156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm²
2019 2021 2024 2027
156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm²
161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm²
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017
156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm²
2019 2021 2024 2027
156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm²
161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm²
Trend: mono-Si Trend: mc-Si
Fast switch to new format:
à New mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm²
à Larger formats are upcoming
Transition to new format in 2017
à Expected new mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm²
à Larger formatsmayoccur after 2020
VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 13 |

190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1st 2nd 3rd
2009
4th 5th
ITRPV Edition
6th 7th 8th
Waferthickness [µm]
2015 2017
• Still no progress in mc-Si thickness reduction
à 180µm = preferred thickness since 2009
• Thickness reduction is expected to start for Mono
à cost reduction potential
à diamond wire will support
New module technologies enable further thickness
reduction
Wafer – Product: thickness trend
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2016
Wafer thickness multi
2017 2019
Wafer thickness mono
2021 2024 2027
limit of cell thickness in future modul technology
Page 14 | 18 April 2017
[µm]
Mono wafer: thickness reduction starts
Trend: wafer thickness for mc-Si and mon Si wafers

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
100%
90%
2016
p-type mc
2017
p-type HPmc
2019 2021
p-type monolike
2024
p-type mono
2027
n-type mono
ITRPV2017
Wafer – Product: market share of material types
à Casted material is still dominating todaywith >60%
à Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type)
VDMA Page 15 | 18 April 2017
casted-Sidomination is not for ever:
à Trend of last years will continue
• Casting technology:
à HP mc-Si will replace standardmc-Si
à no “come back” of mono-like expected
• Mono technology:
à n-type material share will increase
à n- + p-type marketshare today ≈35%
(2016 values are in line w/IHS Markit)
• p-type materialis expectedto stay dominant
à mainly due to progress in stabilization
Trend: share of c-Si material types

Outline
- Systems
Page
16 |

ITRPV2017
Trend for remaining silver per cell (156x156mm²)
120
20
* avg. cellefficiency 19.6 % ≈ 4.8 Wp/cell
0
2016 2017 2019 2021
Ag will stay main metallization in c-Si technology
40
60
80
100
2024 2027
Amountofsilverpercell
[mg/cell]
0
100
200
300
400
2009
3rd
2015
5th
2017
7th
Good prediction of Ag reduction continues
Remaining Silver / Cell [mg]
2nd 4th 6th 8th
Cell – Materials: Silver (Ag) per cell
2009
2016
2017
300 mg
100 mg reached
90 mg expected
à Ag accounts in 2016 for ≈ 8% of cell conversion cost
• Ag reduction is mandatory and continues
• delays substitution by Cu or other material
No break through for lead free pastes so far
à Market introduction depends on performance
2016: 100mg
à ≈ 21 t / GWp @ 19.6%
548 $/kg
à ≈ 1.1 $cent/ Wp*
Page
17 |

Cell – Processes: cell production tool throughputs
ITRPV2017
3.000
Trends: tool througput ncrease + synchronization of frontend/backend
5.000
4.000
7.000
6.000
9.000
8.000
11.000
10.000
2016 2017 2019 2021 2024
chemical processes, progessive scenario
chemical processes, evolutional scenario
themal processes, progressive scenario
thermal processes, evolutional scenario
metallisation & classification processes, progressive scenario
metallisation & classification processes, evolutional scenario
2027
[Wafer/h]
Wet benches are leading today with > 7800 wf/h
à Throughput increase continues
Challenge: increase throughput + Improve OEE
Two throughput scenarios:
Progressive = new high throughput tools
Evolutionary = continuous improvement
of existing tools (debottlenecking,
upgrades…)
Page
18 |

Cell – processes: c-Si metallization technologies
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2016
screen printing
2017 2019 2021
direct plating on Si
2024 2027
plating on seed layerstencil printing
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2016 2017
sctreen printing
2019
plating
2021 2024 2027
Front side metallization technologies
W orld market share [%]
90%
100%
Rear side metallization technologies
W orld market share [%]
90%
100%
PVD (evaporation/sputtering)
Screen printing remains main stream metallization technology
à Plating is expected for rear and front side
à For rear side PVD methods mayappear
Page
19 |

Cell – processes: finger width / number of bus bars / bifaciality
ITRPV2017
0
10
20
2016 2017
Finger width
2019 2021 2024
Alignment precision
2027
[µm]
Trend: Finger width / alignment precision
30
40
50
60
Trends: market share of bifacial cells
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017
monofacial c-Si
2019 2021 2024
bifacial c-Si
2027
Trends: number of bus bars (BB)
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016
3 busbars
2017 2019
4 busbars
2021 2024 2027
5 busbars busbarless
Front side grid finger width reduction continues
2016: < 50µm reached!
à EnablesAg reduction,requires increase of number of busbars
à 4BB are mainstream – 3 BB will disappear
Alignmentprecision willimprove to <10µm @3 sig.
à Selective emitters + Bifacial cells require good alignment
à Bifacialcells will increase market share
monofacial cells
Page 20 |

Cell – processes: emitter formation for low J0frontITRPV2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027
Ohms/square
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017 2019
homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion
selective emitter by etch back
selective emitter by ion implantation
2021 2024 2027
selective emitter by laser doping
homogenous emitter by ion implantation
Trend: emitter sheet resistance Trend: emitter formation technologies
Essential parameter for J0front
à 95…100 Ω/□ are standard today
à Increase to 135 Ω/□ is predicted
à Challenge for tools and front pastes
Mainstream: homogenous gas-phase diffusion
à selective doping: etch back or laser doping
à Ion implant stays niche
Page
21 |

Cell – processes: technology for low J0rear
TRPV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2016 2017
PECVD AlOx + capping layer
2019 2021
ALD AlOx + capping layer
2024
Trend: rear side passivation technologies
Page
22 |
70%
80%
90%
100%
2027
PECVD SiONx
Rear side passivation is mandatory for PERC
à PECVDAlOx will stay mainstream
à ALD will hold up to 10 %
à SiONx will disappear
ITRPV prediction for J0rear were good
• BSF cannot deliver required low J0
• PERC takes over
• competing technologiesin PERC
à PECVDAl2O3 + capping
à Al2O3 ALD + capping
à PECVD SiONx/SiNy etc.
rear
2009 2017
780 à 120 fA/cm²
2017I

Cell – Products: cell technologies / cell efficiency trends
ITRPV2017
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
Average stabilized efficiency values for Si solar
=> p-type PERC outperforms
24%
25%
26%
27%
2016 2017 2019
BSF cells p-type mc-Si
PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-Si
PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-Si
back contact cells n-type mono-Si
2021 2024 2027
BSF cells p-type mono-Si
PERC/PERT cells p-type mono-Si
Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-Sistabilizedcell
efficiency
Trend: market share of cell concepts
2016: PERC ≈15% (in line w/IHS Markit)
BSF
PERC
other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027
Si-herterojunction (SHJ) back contact cells Si-based tandemBSF PERC/PERL/PERT
ITRPV2017
IHSMarkitdata
Si-tandem
PERX is gaining market share (20% 2017)
à BSF share is shrinking
à Back contact + HJ: slow increasing share
à Si tandem: under development
p-type mono PERX will reach n-type performance
mc-Si PERX is about to outperform mono BSF
à n-type IBC + HJ for highest efficiencyapplications
à stabilized >21% p-type mono PERC is in production
PERX
Page
23 |

Outline
3. ITRVP – Results 2016
- Systems
Page
24 |

Module – Materials: foils
Trend: share of encapsulant materials Trend: share of back-sheet materials
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017 2019
EVA (Ethylene Vinyl Acetat)
PDMS (Polydimethyl Silicone) / Silicone
TPU (Thermoplastic Polyurethan)
2021 2024
Polyolefin
PVB (Polyvinyl Butyral)
2027
ITRPV2017
0%
20%
10%
30%
50%
40%
60%
80%
70%
90%
100%
2016 2017
TPT (Tedlar-Polyester-Tedlar)
APA (Polyamid-PET-Polyamid)
KPE (Kynar (PVDF)- PET- EVA)
other
Page 25 | 18 April 2017
2019 2021 2024
TPA (Tedlar-PET-Polyamid)
Polyolefien (PO)
Glas
2027
EVAis mainstream
Polyolefine will increase market share
Glas will gain share as back cover material
TPT will lose share on the long run

Module – Processes: interconnection technology
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2016 2017
lead-containing soldering
2019 2021
lead-free soldering
2024 2027
conductive adhesive
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2016 2017 2019 2021
Cu-ribbon Cu-wires structured foils
Trend: cell interconnection technology
Page
26 |
90%
100%
80%
90%
100%
2024 2027
shingled/overlapping cell
Expanding market share:
lead free soldering + conductive adhesives
Cu will remain most widely used cell connection material
Cu wires will increase market share
Trend: cell connection material

Module – Products: module power outlookITRPV2017
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
2016 2017
acidic textured multi-Si
2019 2021 2024 2027
alcaline textured mono-Si
ITRPV2017
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
ModulePower[Wp]
Trend: cell to module power ratio (CTM)
Page
27 |
104%
Trend: module power of 60 cell (156x156mm²)
390
2016 2017 2019
BSF p-type mc-Si
PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si
PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si
back contact cells n-type mono-Si
2021 2024 2027
BSF p-type mono-Si
PERC/PERT p-type mono-Si
Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) n-type mono-Si
CTM will increase to > 100%
à Acidic texturing has higher CTM 60 cell modules 2017:
Mono p-type PERX: 300 W are standard
Multi p-type PERX: 285 W are common

Module – Products: framed modules and J-Boxes
Trend: share of frameless c-Si modules
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
70%
70%
60%
80%
90%
100%
2019 2021 2024 2027
framed frameless
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
80%
70%
90%
100%
2016 2017
Aluminum
2019 2021 2024
other
2027
Plastic
Trend: share of smart J-Boxes
ITRPV2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017 2019
standard J-Box without additional function
2021 2024 2027
microinverter (DC/AC) DC/DC converter
Al-frames will stay mainstream
à framelessfor niche markets
Standard J-Box remains mainstream
Smart J-Boxesfor niche applications
Page 28 | 18 April 2017

Module – Products: module size
TRPV
2021 2024
quarter cell
2027
full cell
ITRPV2017
2016 2017
Trend: share of cell dimensions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017 2019
half cell
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Trend: share of module size (full cell)
Page
29 |
100%
2019 2021 2024
72-cell 96-cell other
2027
60-cell
Full cell will remain main stream
half cell implementation started!
quarter cells– currently a niche
Big is beautiful:72 cell module share will increase
60 cell modules à mainstream until 2020
201
7
I

Module – Products: module reliability (new)
Trend: warranty conditions and degradation for c-Si modules
Waranty requirements & degradationfor c-Si PV modules
Page
39 |
ITRPV2017
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2016 2017 2019 2021 2024
Performance waranty [years]
Product waranty [years]
Initial degardation after 1st year of operation [%]
Degradation per year during performance waranty [%]
2027
degradation[%]
warranty[years]
Product warranty will remain 10 years
Performance warranty 2024+: 30 years
degradation: Initial /
linear/year
2016: 3.0 % / 0.7%
2017: 2.5 % / 0.68%
2019+: 2.0 % / 0.68%
2021+: 2.0 % / 0.60%

Outline
- Systems
Page
31 |

Systems – Balance of system (BOS) for power plants
TRPV
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
2016 2017 2019
Module Inverter Wiring
2021
Mounting
2024
Ground
2027
ITRPV2017
59%
53%
45% 43% 40% 38%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
12%
11%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2016 2017 2019
Trend: BOS in Europe and US
100%
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
6%
13%
13%
12%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
11%
100%
94%
84%
81%
77%
70%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2021
Mounting
Trend:BOSinAsia
Page
32 |
2024
Ground
2027
Module Inverter Wiring
Still significant cost reductions foreseen Costs in Asia are assumed to be significant lower
12% 87%
12%
11%
75%
13% 11% 11% 70%
11% 64%
8% 12% 10% 10% 58%
10%
9%
55% 11% 9%7%
10% 8%
45% 8%
7% 6% 8%
36% 5%
33% 5%
2017
31% 29%
I

Sstems – Components: system voltage /tracking
2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017 2019
systems with max. system voltage of 1000V
2021 2024 2027
systems with max. system voltage of 1500V
Trend: system voltage Trend: tracker systems in power plant applications
TRPV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017
no tracking (fixed tild)
2019 2021
1-axis tracking
2024 2027
2-axis tracking
Page 33 | 18 April 2017
1500V are the future 1-axis trackers will gain market share
RPVI
T
201
7
I

Systems – Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE)
Trend: LCoE progress – a minimum approach
ITRPV2017
0,077
0,073
0,065 0,063
0,059
0,054
0,051
0,049
0,043 0,042
0,039
0,030
0,036
0,027
0,039 0,037
0,033 0,032
970
911,8
814,8
785,7
746,9
679
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
2016
1000 kWh/KWp
2017 2019
1500 kWh/kWp
2021 2024 2027
2000 kWh/kWp assumed system price Assumedsystemprice[USD/KWp]
LCOE[USD/kWh]
LCoE depends strongly on local conditions
à ~5.7 US$ct/kWh lowest auction bidder in GER 2016** (avg.7.7 $ct)
à ~2.42 US$ct/kWhpossible near Abu Dhabi* today
* http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-in-deal-to-build-1.2GWp-solar-plant-in-Abu-Dhabi
** http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics/danish-bidders-win-cross-border-pv-tender
System prices
à 2016: 970 $ / kWp
à 2027: <680 $ / kWp
LCoE
à 2016: 3.9 ….. 8 $ct/kWh (GER avg. 7.7 $ct**)
à 2027: 2.7 ….. 5 $ct/kWh are realistic
• System live times of 25 years are assumed
Next steps to further reduce LCoE:
à extended service live to 30 years
(supported by performance warranty trend)
à further efficiency improvements
+ cost down measures
Page
34 |

Outline
- Systems
Page
35 |

10-1
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
]
p
W100 ITRPV2017 100
/
2016
D
S
U[c 10 10
e
ri
p
s
el
sa historic price data
e
l LR 22.5%
odu
1
LR 39.0% (2006-2016)
1
m
e
agr
ave 0.1 0.1
10-1
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
VDMA | ITRPV 2017
Outlook: in detail view at PV learning curve
Page 36 | 15 March 2017
103
107
0.1 0.1
averagemodulesalesprice[USD2016/Wp]
LR26.2% - per piece learning
104
105
106
LR22.5%
LR39.0% (2006-2016)
Wp learning only(2010-2016)
LR 6.8% - Wp learning only
per piece learningonly(2010-2016)
2001603-2016: LR=39.0% 105
106
107
1
10
1
10
historicprice data
ITRPV2017
1976-2016: LR=22.5%
ITRPV finding 2010-2016:
Wp learning ~ 7% (continually)
per piece learning ~26% (market influenced)
à Learning was and will alwaysbe
a combination of:
efficiency increase
+ continues cost reduction per piece
= cost reduction of PV generated electricity
But how will PV proceed in future?
Approach: logistic growth

PV market trend until 2050: logistic growth
ITRPV2017
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Annual Market
Scenario 3 “high”: 9.2 TWp/ 14.3 PWh (< 10 % primary energy)
1.200 10.000
VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 37 | 15 March 2017
0
2045 2050
Shipments
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
AnnualMarket[GWp]
GlobalInstallations[GWp]
Europe Asia Americas Africa
Approach: 3 scenarios for 190
different countries in 4 regions
Asia / America /Africa / EU
ITRPV finding:
- Shipments until 2016
slightly above all scenarios
- Annual PV market:
335 GWp/a to 800 GWp/a
à Replacement rate = key to
overcome down cycles
à Evolutionary technology
development works
for all scenarios

Summary
38 |
• Silicon PV will remain a fast (evolutionary) developing
technology
• Further reductions of c-Si PV manufacturing cost are
possible
• Cell efficiency improvements will support significant
LCoE reductions
• Quality and reliability of components and systems are of
highest importance
=> Silicon PV will significantly contribute to future power
supply
=> We are just at the beginning of PV-market development

Thank you
for your attention!
Source: www.siemens.com/presse
39 |
Contact us:
jutta.trube@vdma.org
Full version of 8th edition available at:
www.itrpv.net

© Fraunhofer ISE
SILICON SOLAR CELLS – CURRENT
PRODUCTION AND FUTURE CONCEPTS
Martin Hermle
Fraunhofer Institute for
Solar Energy Systems ISE
19. 05. 2017
PV Manufacturing in Europe
Brussels

© Fraunhofer ISE, M.Hermle 2017
2
PV Module Production Development by Technology
It is still silicon …
Production 2015 (GWp)
Thin film 4.2
Multi-Si 43.9
Mono-Si 15.1
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS (Mono-/Multi- proportion from cell production). Graph: PSE AG 2016

3
SILICON SOLAR CELLS – CURRENT
PRODUCTION AND FUTURE CONCEPTS
 PRESENT
 Current production of silicon solar cells
 Evolution of cell efficiency  The pathway to highest efficiencies
 FUTURE
 Overcoming the limits of silicon
 A new generation of silicon solar cells

4
Present
Screen-printed Al-BSF Solar Cell on p-Type Silicon
 Production data from
Hanwha QCELLS
Fabian Fertig et al “Mass Production of p-Type Cz Silicon Solar Cells ... “
7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017

5
Present
Screen-printed Al-BSF Solar Cell on p-Type Silicon
 Production data from
Hanwha QCELLS
 Efficiency limitation due
to full area Al-BSF rear
side
 What is the next step?
 Make it cheaper?
 Make it better?

6
 Different BOS for
different Countries
 Current Module
price < 0.5 $/W
 Module price only a
small fraction of
system cost in most
countries
Present
System Cost: BOS and Module Costs
 Highly efficient solar cells reduces System Cost and the LCOE
BOS2015CostUSD/kW
1500
1000
500
IRENA (2016), The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025

7
Present
From Al-BSF to PERC
 Replacement of the full
area Al-BSF with a partial
rear contact (PRC)
 Two additional process
steps
 Dielectric passivation
 Local contact opening
(LCO) or Laser fired
contact (LFC)
SDE/Texture
POCl diffusion
Edge Isolation
PSG etching
SiN ARC
SP Ag FS
Drying & Firing
SP Al/Ag RS
Al2O3/ SiN RS
Laser Opening

8
Present
From Al-BSF to PERC
 Q.ANTUM production
data from Hanwha
QCELLS
 Still 0.6 %abs/year
efficiency improvement
 How far can we go?
??

9
From Present to Future
Silicon Solar Cell Production: What is the Efficiency Limit?
 Assuming constant
“learning curve”
 efficiency improvement
~0.6 %abs/year
 What limits the cell
efficiency and which
technologies are needed
in the future ?
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Averagecellconversionefficiency[%]
~ 20 %
??PERC
Al-BSF

10
PERC – What is the Limit
 Continuous increasing is
possible by
 Improving base
lifetime > 1 ms
 Smaller fingers and
smaller selective
emitter regions
 Multi-wire Module
B.Min et al , INCREMENTAL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS…, 31st EUPVSC 2015, Hamburg

11
 Continuous increasing is
possible by
 Improving base
lifetime > 1 ms
 Smaller fingers and
smaller selective
emitter regions
 Multi-wire Module
No material degradation, cleaner
processes/environment
Higher alignment accuracy, increased
metallization costs (e.g. screens)
Higher CTM losses, higher module
manufacturing costs

12
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
 Physical Limitations
 Contact
recombination and
lateral current flow
PERC
~ 20 %
PERC
Al-BSF
~ 23.5 %
 Passivating Contacts

13
Heterojunction Solar Cells
 Lean process flow
 Highly efficient carrier
selective contacts
 High Voc and low Tk
 Parasitic absorption
 Metallization
temperature is limited
from: D.Bätzner Silicon PV 2014
Texture
TCO front
Curing
SP Ag VS
i/p-a-Si
i/n-a-Si
TCO rear
PVD Al rear
Cleaning

14
Passivating Contacts with Oxide and Polysilicon
Tunnel oxide
EC
EF
EV
n-Si Base Polycrystalline
Si(n)-Layer
Post, IEEE Transactions on Electron Devices (1992)
F. Feldmann et al., SOLMAT 120 (2014)
U. Römer, et al. IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics (2015)
D. Yan Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells (2015)
TOPCon Stucture

15
TOPCon Record Cells with Top/Rear Contacts
Material Area Voc Jsc FF η
[mV] [mA/cm2] [%] [%]
n-type Mono 4 cm² (da) 725 42.5 83.3 25.7*
J0e,pass � 11-15 fA/cm²
J0e,metal � 200 fA/cm²
TOPCon: J0,rear � 7 fA/cm²
n-base
p++
* confirmed by Fraunhofer ISE Callab
 World record
efficiency of 25.7%
for both side
contacted solar cells
A.Richter Silicon Solar Cells with Passivating Rear Contacts

16
[mV] [mA/cm2] [%] [%]
n-type Mono 4 cm² (da) 725 42.5 83.3 25.7*
n-type Multi 4 cm² (ap) 673 40.8 79.7 21.9*
Photograph of the n-type
HP mc solar cell
 World record
efficiency of 21.9%
for a mc silicon solar
cell
J. Benick High-efficiency multicrystalline n-type silicon solar
cells 7th Silicon PV, Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017

17
[mV] [mA/cm2] [%] [%]
n-type Mono 4 cm² (da) 725 42.5 83.3 25.7*
n-type Multi 4 cm² (ap) 673 40.8 79.7 21.9*
n-type Mono 100 cm² (ap) 713 41.4 83.1 24.5*
 Process scalable on
lager area
F.Feldmann, Evaluation of TOPCon technology on large
area solar cells EUPVSEC, Amsterdam, 2017

18
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Passivating Contacts – What is the limit
 Intrinsic Auger
recombination,
parasitic absorption
and transport losses
 Back Junction Back
Contact
Passivating
Contacts
PERC
~ 20 %
PERC
~ 23.5 %
Al-BSF
~ 25.0 %

19
Back Junction Back Contact with Passivating Contacts
 Kaneka (Heterojunction) 26.6 % (180 cm² ,da)*
 Sunpower (Passivating contacts) 25.2 % (153 cm2 ,ta)
* NATURE ENERGY 2, 17032 (2017) | DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2017.32

20
Back Junction Back Contact with Passivating Contacts
 Intrinsic Auger
recombination,
imperfect light
trapping and
transport losses
 And now ?
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Passivating
Contacts
PERC
~ 20 %
PERC
~ 23.5 %
Al-BSF
~ 25.0 %
~ 26.0 %
Passivating
Contacts BJBC

21
Future
What is the Limit of Silicon Solar Cells
 Shockley, Queisser (1961)
Limit for Si 33% (AM1.5)
 Limitations by
thermalization and
transmission
 Auger Limit 29.4 %1
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Transmission loss
Bandgap
Usable power
Thermalization loss
Intensity[Wm-2
nm-1
]
Wavelength [nm]
1Richter, Hermle, Glunz, IEEE J. Photovolt. (2013)

22
Future
What is the Limit of Silicon Solar Cells
 Shockley, Queisser (1961)
Limit for Si 33% (AM1.5)
 Limitations by
thermalization and
transmission
 Auger Limit 29.4 %1
1Richter, Hermle, Glunz, IEEE J. Photovolt. (2013)
 End of Silicon Solar Cell Technologies?
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
~ 29 %
Passivating
Contacts
~ 25.0 %
PERC
~ 20 %
PERC
~ 23.5 %
~ 26.0 %
Passivating
Contacts BJBC
Al-BSF

23
Future
Beyond the Single Junction-Limit
 Light management
 Up-conversion
 Down-conversion
 Tandem cells with silicon as
bottom cell
 Perovskite top cell
 III/V top cell
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
AM1.5
1. Cell
2. Cell
3. Cell (Si)
Intensity[Wm-2
nm-1
]
Wavelength [nm]

24
Future
Perovskite / Silicon Tandem Cells
 Perovskite has a wide,
tunable bandgap
appropriate for a top cell
 Solution processability
allows potentially cheap
processes
 23.6 %1 achieved so far
for monolithic 2 terminal
devices
1K. Bush et al. Nature Energy 2, Article number: 17009 (2017)doi:10.1038/nenergy.2017.9

25
Future
III/V / Silicon Tandem
Si (1.12 eV)
GaAs (1.42 eV)
GaInP (1.88 eV)
 III/V solar cells have
already shown excellent
efficiencies
 Deposition by direct
epitaxial growth or
wafer bonding

26
Beyond the Limit
2-terminal GaInP/AlGaAs//Si >30% @1-Sun AM1.5g
 Efficient utilization of spectrum
 Efficiency = 31.3%
 Near term potential above 35 %
R.Cariou et al Monolithic III-V//Si Tandem Solar Cells with
Efficiency > 30% Enabled by Wafer-Bonding 7th Silicon PV,
Freiburg, Germany, April 3, 2017

27
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Beyond the Limit
Silicon Based Tandem Cells
 Silicon Solar Cell
Technology has still a
bright future
Silicon based
Tandem cells
Passivating
Contacts
~ 25.0 %
PERC
~ 20 %
PERC
~ 23.5 %
~ 26.0 %
Passivating
Contacts BJBC
Al-BSF
 R&D is very important to
stay on the efficiency
“learning curve”

28
Conclusion
 Silicon is it the working horse
of Photovoltaic

29
Conclusion
of Photovoltaic
 Conversion efficiency is the
key to further bring down the
levelized costs of electricity and
to survive competition.

30
Conclusion
of Photovoltaic
 New cell structures with high
industrial potential are
available

31
Conclusion
of Photovoltaic
 New cell structures with high
industrial potential are
available
 New fascinating concepts for
an old technology:
Crystalline silicon solar cells 2.0

32
Thank you for your attention!
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
martin.hermle@ise.fraunhofer.de

Epitaxial Wafers:
A game-changing technology on
its way to mass production
ETIP-PV Manufacturing Conference

2
NexWafe: producer of high-quality silicon wafers
Confidential
NexWafe will supply to solar cell manufacturers
superior quality n-type mono-crystalline silicon wafers
as a drop-in replacement for conventional wafers
at competitive price

3
Firm footing, strongly backed
Confidential
Freiburg/Br.
Founded in 2015 as a spin-off of
Fraunhofer ISE
Series A closed in March 2016
Currently expanding pilot production for
EpiWafers

4
Agenda
Confidential
Epitaxial Wafers: A game-changing technology on its way to mass production
Market needs
EpiWafers – properties and advantages
NexWafe’s path to mass production

6
Market needs
Confidential
Source:ITRPVEighthEdition2017
efficiency gain
of up to 25%rel
mono wafers of
“high” and
“highest” quality

7
The PV-industry needs disruptive approaches to cut cost
Confidential
Drivers for future cost reduction
Module manufacturing cost
Reducing wafer cost is key
Minimized material consumptionHigh efficiency solar cells
?!

8
Standard wafer processing: low material usage, high cost
Confidential
High losses limit cost reduction potential severely
1 kg Si 0.4 kg wafer
Chlorosilane
Poly
silicon
Cz Ingot
pulling
Cropping
Squaring
Grinding
Wire
sawing
Wafer
60% loss!
Severe silicon losses - High energy consumption - Capital intensive
High wafer cost

9
EpiWafers – smart and efficient value chain by kerfless wafering
Confidential
Reduced silicon consumption
Dramatically less energy needed
Significantly less CAPEX
Very high cost cutting potential
Chlorosilane
Poly
silicon
Cz Ingot
pulling
Cropping
Squaring
Grinding
Wire
sawing
Wafer
High throughput in-line
silicon deposition

10
EpiWafer
Confidential
Drop-in replacement of conventional wafers for high efficiency cells

11
re-usable Si seed wafer
Epitaxially grown Si wafer
Monocrystalline
“EpiWafer”
Detachment
Kerfless Si
wafer
Epitaxy
re-usable Si seed waferRelease layer
re-usable Si seed wafer
Kerfless EpiWafer process for mass production
Idea: “Clone” a monocrystalline
seed wafer
Closed seed wafer loop and nearly
no kerf allows for low production
cost
Wafer thickness: “standard” 180 µm
or thinner – no problem to produce
80 µm thin wafers

12
Full-square wafer format: Higher solar cell and module power
Better control of wafer parameters: Narrower module efficiency distribution
Wafer thickness down to 80 µm: Disruptive cost reduction and efficiency increase
In-situ growth of pn junction: Cost savings on solar cell production
Optimizing customer value by specific product advantages
Confidential

13
EpiWafer achievements
Confidential
Efficiencies > 20% and lifetimes in ms range proven
C. Gemmel et al., Journal of Photovoltaics, 2016

14
Challenge “mass production”
Confidential
Quality can be perfect…
…but how can we produce
billions of good
EpiWafers??

15
Mass production requires more than bulk lifetime!
Very high throughput, modular scalable
› 1000’s of wafers per hour per machine
› 10.000’s of wafers per hour per factory
High Yield > 95% (mechanical, electronic)
High OEE > 80% (uptime, yield)
Low production cost
› Efficient BOM
› Automation
› Low CAPEX
 Not achievable with batch or single-wafer
processing
Inline - the must-have for mass production
Confidential
Inline processing is a must-have to achieve low production cost

16
Out of the lab into production
Confidential
Mass production based on a mature inline process
building on 20 years of R&D work at Fraunhofer ISE
2017
5 MW production
2018
EpiWafer factory
R&D at Fraunhofer ISE
Production
2012
ProConCVD
5 MW production line in operation 2H 2017
Start of mass production in 2018
https://renewables.seenews.com

17
Efficient and scalable 250 MW factory
Confidential
Two factory parts:
› EpiWafer factory
› Chemical plant for vent gas recycling

18
NexWafe’s EpiWafers – innovation, growth and competitiveness
Confidential
NexWafe brings solar wafer production back to Europe
Most innovative, proprietary and patented PV
technology fundamentally changing the process chain
and the cost of the wafer industry
We ensure long-term competitiveness in Europe by
creating a scalable and highly profitable business
We create jobs in R&D and manufacturing in Europe

19
LET’S BE AMBITIOUS!
Confidential

20
Acknowledgements
Confidential
NexWafe acknowledges funding
by
German Federal Ministry of
Economics and Foreign Affairs
and
EIT InnoEnergy

Confidential
Dr. Stefan Reber
Stefan.Reber@nexwafe.com
NexWafe GmbH
Hans-Bunte-Str. 19
79108 Freiburg
Germany
Phone: +49 761 7661 186-11
www.nexwafe.com
For more information, please contact:

C3PV
From Space Solar Cell to CPV Systems
Gerhard Strobl, Werner Bensch, Stephan Mayer
Bruxelles, 19th May 2017

Agenda
1. AZUR SPACE Solar Power
2. Solar Cells for Satellites and Terrestrial CPV
3. C3PV - System and Business Model
4. Conclusion
2
(c) AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH / AZUR DOCUMENT released for publication (level 1 of 5)
AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH

1 –AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH
Company Overview
3

AZUR SPACE
Company History
4

1964
1974
1988
5
First silicon space solar cell in Germany
First multicrystallinesilicon solar cell for terrestrial
application
Fabrication of high efficiency silicon solar cells
(18% AM0, 20% AM1.5)
2001
2008
2012
2014
2017
First European triple GaAs space solar cell
First triple GaAs space solar cell with 30% efficiency Best
EOL GaAs space solar cell on the market (patented)
Terrestrial CPV solar cells with 44% (500x)
C3PV system (partner programme)
First generation: silicon photovoltaic – mono- and multicrystalline
Third generation: III-V photovoltaic & technology
AZUR SPACE
Technical Milestones in PV

AZUR
(1968/69)
Alphasat
(2013)
Hubble Telescope
(1978/90)
Venus Express
(2005)
Intelsat
(1996/98)
Rosetta Mission
(2000)
Galileo Sats
(2012)
Since 1964AZUR SPACE has powered
6
more than 500 Satellites …

2 – Solar Cells for Satellites and
Terrestrial CPV

III/V Multijunction Solar Cells
§ Large wafer area (up to 150mm)
§ Material engineering forAs, P-based III-V semiconductors
§ More than 40 layers, 3 cells and 2 tunnel diodes etc.
§ Epitaxy on Ge
Silicon η~20% (AM1.5)
8
III/V triple junction
η~ 35% (AM1.5)
>44% (500x)

Terrestrial CPV Solar Cells
„From Space to Earth“
Space 3G30:
Large cell area,
Operation at 1x AM0,
Radiation hardness
Terrestrial CPV 3C44:
Small cells (1,3x1,3mm2 bis 10x10mm2)
Operation at 500-1000x AM1.5 Humidity
protection
9
EFA®
Enhanced
Fresnel Assembly

Solar Cell Production Status at AZUR
> AZUR‘s spacesolarcells (3G30) are the most radiation hard product
in the marketand currently representourmain productline.
> AZUR‘s terrestrialCPV solarcells (3C44)are in volume production.
> AZUR currently has a production capacity of500 000 Wafers / year
which corresponds to 500 MW (assuming CPV cellproductiononly).
> On requestof a possible marketdemand,the production capacity can
easily be expanded.
23.05.2017 10

3 – C3PV -
System and Business Model

C3PV System
Interior View of the Module
30% Efficiency
EFA®
3C44 Cell
C3PV System
3.5kW, 10.8m2
Concept:
12

• Equipped with mostefficientsolarcells on the marketwith 44%
• Module efficiencyabove30% (STC)
• More competive pricethan standard PV (for regions with high direct
insolation)
• Compact3.5kW system with 10.8m2 module area
• High localcontent
C3PV-System
13

Hi-Tech in Europe
1. Fresnel Lenses
2. EFA® - „Enhanced Fresnel Assembly“
(solar cell, by-pass diode, secondary optics mounted on DCB ceramic)
Low-Tech locally
1. Module and tracker production with regional creation of value by local
partners
2. Know-how transfer
3. Tasks of local partners
ð Production
ð Marketing & Sales
ð Installation
ð Maintenance
Hi-Tech in Europe, Low-Tech locally
Supply of components
from Europe
14

C3PV Production Status at AZUR
> EFA® (EnhancedFresnelAssembly) productionline – 50MW
> Module pilot production and demo line (blueprintand training) - 20MW
15

Conclusion
17
> AZUR is world market leader in space solar cells (3G30, 4G32)
and in terrestrial CPV solar cells (3C44).
> AZUR wants to be a strong component supplier providing
customers world-wide with solar cells (bare or assembled) as
part of our core business.
> As far as customers want to manufacture complete CPV
systems (C3PV), AZUR can provide the know-how for local
module and tracker productions within the framework of its
partner programme.
> CPV technology still has a significant cost reduction potential
by future higher quantities in mass production and improved
solar cell efficiency up to 50% (corresponding to a module
efficiency above 35%).

Thank you for your attention !
Co-funded by
the European Union

Technology Game Changers
PV Manufacturing in Europe
PV MANUFACTURING IN EUROPE CONFERENCE (ETIP-PV)
Javier Sanz, CTO Renewable Energies

www.innoenergy.com 2INNOENERGY
Innovation
Projects
Education
InnoEnergy
Business
Creation
250Project partners
across Europe
77Patents filed
78Products and services
supported
3Manufacturing
facilities constructed
147Million euros of InnoEnergy
investment
1.2Billion euros
in project costs
3Billion euros in forecasted sales
162Early start-ups
supported
80Companies
created
33Million euros
of external
investment
raised
1,884Business ideas
captured
500Gamechangers from the
InnoEnergy's Master’s School
11,200Applicants to InnoEnergy's
Master’s School
93%
Graduates who find
a job within six months
of graduating
15%
Average annual salary
earnings over graduates
of similar programmes
140PhD students supported
35PhD graduates
8MOOCs

www.innoenergy.com 3INNOENERGY
Making connections: the power of the network
6 co-location centres
26 shareholders
250 additional partners
Activities in 17 countries

www.innoenergy.com 4EU CONTEXT
Winter package
Re-industrialization of Europe as the Goal:
• Create 900.000 new jobs
• Mobilize 177 B€ of investments annually
• Increment the EU GDP by 1% up to 2030
By 2030:
• Half the power produced must be renewable
• Emissions to be reduced by 40%

www.innoenergy.com 5
TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARE
Source IHS
pC-Si mC-Si CdTe CIGS a-Si
PV KEY TECHNOLOGIES
* Crystalline Silicon dominates bulk market applications
* Large players in the Chemical / Raw Material industry
* Thin Film the “game changer” to come
0 50000 100000 150000
GLC Poly Energy (China)
OCI + Tokuyama (South Korea)
Wacker Chemie (Germany)
Hemlock (USA)
Xinte Energy (Ghina)
REC (Norway)
Daqo (China)
China Silicon (China)
SunEdison (USA)
Largest Polysilicon Producers
Estimated data end 2016 – Source IHS

www.innoenergy.com
PV Value Chain Innovation Assessment
DELPHOS: INNOENERGY KEY TOOL FOR ASSESSING OPPORTUNITIES 6
Link: https://delphos.innoenergy.com/welcome
Framework:
 Focus in Crystalline Si and Thin Film
 Other emerging technologies to be assessed by other means
 Timeframe: 2014-2030
Innovations affecting:
 PV Plant modules
 PV Plant Inverters
 BoS Structures
 Bos Electrical
 Development, Installation and Construction
 Operation, Maintenance and Service
Impact analysis on:
 Cost
 Gross AEP

www.innoenergy.com 7LCOE METHODOLOGY TO DRIVE PV MANUFACTURING INNOVATION
How the innovations impact the LCOE
How the revised parameters affect LCOE
+

www.innoenergy.com 9INNOVATIONS IN c-Si PV MODULE MANUFACTURING
TOKYO

www.innoenergy.com 10INNOVATIONS IN THIN FILM PV CELL & MODULE MANUFACTURING
TOKYO

www.innoenergy.com 11INNOVATIONS IN INVERTER MANUFACTURING
TOKYO

www.innoenergy.com 12INNOVATIONS IN c-Si and TF LEADING MANUFACTURING OPPORTUNITIES

www.innoenergy.com 13IS IT POSSIBLE FOR PV TO BE THE ULTIMATE GAME CHANGER?
0 €/MWh
50 €/MWh
100 €/MWh
150 €/MWh
200 €/MWh
250 €/MWh
Conv c-Si
Ground
HighEff c-Si
Ground
TF Ground Conv c-Si
Roof
HighEff c-Si
Roof
TF Roof
'15 '20 '30 '15 Household grid price
Eurostat
'15 Avg. Platts PEP

www.innoenergy.com 14INNOENERGY PROJECTS AND VENTURES
POWCELL FASCOM Epicomm EnThiPV EFFIC BIPV-Insight
Innovation Projects & Commercializing Entities
Ventures
http://beonenergy.co
m/
http://www.compactsolar.nl http://www.ecoligo.comhttp://endef.comhttp://www.epcsolaire.fr/http://www.gramma-gam.com/http://www.helioslite.com
http://www.nnergix.com
http://www.nanotechnologysolar.comhttp://www.rvesol.com/http://www.solangel-energy.comhttp://www.solarenergybooster.nlhttp://www.solardynamik.eu
http://www.solarisoffgrid.com
https://www.solelia.se/en/
http://www.steady-sun.comhttp://www.swedishalgaefactory.comhttp://www.tandemsun.com/http://textilenergy.com/

www.innoenergy.com
InnoEnergy is supported by the EIT,
a body of the European Union
Javier Sanz – CTO Renewable Energies
javier.sanz@innoenergy.com
+34 935 572 342

3SUN: Innovative Advanced Technology Factory
for PV Module R(e)volution
A. Canino
3SUN
May 19°, 2017

Outline
2
• EGP positioning and key figures
• Modules cost reduction
• Enel Green Power Core Business
• Business model
• 3SUN Strategic Decision in 2015
• Innovative and Reliable Technology
• Industry 4.0

EGP positioning and key figures
3
Key figures
Capacity1 (GW)
Production (TWh)
Key financials (€bn)
EBITDA
Opex
Maintenance capex
Growth capex1
Old
perimeter
10.9
Old
perimeter
37.4
2.0
0.8
0.2
2.7
24.8
Large
hydro
55.0
2.2
Large
hydro
0.6
0.2
0.1Countries of interestCountries of presence
Net installed capacity1
(GW) 6.4 1.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 24.8
2016
2016
35.7
92.4
4.2
1.4
0.4
2.8
1. Old perimeter capacity and growth capex not including USA projects managed through BSO model
(Build Sell and Operate)
Geo Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Large hydro

The outlook for renewables
4
Decoupling between installations and investments
Solar costs down 90% since 2009
Performance improvement coupled
with repowering opportunity
Cost of lithium-ion cells have plunged from
$1,000/kWh in 2007 to $300/kWh now
Commercial, financial and risk management skills
remain key factors to win in a fast changing market
Pervasive and unstoppable.
Leading the change is key to support marginality
Storage
Investments
Wind
Private sector
Solar
Innovation

Costs
ITRPV 2017
5
Dramatic price drop during 2nd half of 2016
à Market driven
à Poly-Si share increased
à High pressure on manufacturers01/2011 à 01/2016 ~64%
01/2016 à 01/2017 ~36%

Global Solar Demand in 2017
IHS 2017
• 79 GW of global installations with upside
potential of 85 GW.
• More than 90% is c-Si or mc-Si
• China maintains its position as the largest end
market*.
• Lower system costs support demand growth
in new regions and emerging markets
6
2017
(*) Finalglobal demand numbers willbe heavily
influenced by policy evolution in China in the
second half of the year

PV Manufacturing in Europe - European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics

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