1. Where we have been and
where we are going
Vic Laurie
http://vlaurie.com

3. Making predictions is hard
- especially about the future
Attributed to many sources including
Niels Bohr and Yogi Berra

4.  A lot of discussion goes on about “what is a
PC?”
 A PC is a computing device used by normal,
average people
 Not a mainframe or a server or a business
machine
 Personal computing is what you do with a PC
 Computing devices are inextricably
intertwined in modern life

5.  Central role of hardware
 PCs became possible only with the invention of solid state
components and integrated circuits
 Ever cheaper, smaller, and faster components
 Internet
 Fast, world-wide connections
 Information revolution
 Cloud computing
 Software - less of a driver
 Word 95 compared to Word 2013
 Sound and graphics
 Bloatware
 The rise of the app

8. 7 million+ volumes

10.  One guess is 2.5 petabytes (2500 GB)

11.  Point and click
 Mouse
 Keyboard
 Graphical User Interface (GUI)
 Douglas Englebart at Stanford Research
Institute (1963)
 In 1968, Englebart demonstrated text editing, video
conferencing, hypertext and windowing
 Not until the late 1980’s did the GUI and mouse
become common

12.  The new construct of mobility
 Anytime-anywhere-computing
 Breaking away from the iron grip of Windows
 Simpler consumer devices
 Replacement of the point-and-click paradigm
 New interfaces
 The conversion of the Internet into a social
place – a worldwide community
 “Big data” –an emergent phenomenon
 Loss of privacy
 Surprising new kinds of information

15.  Apple iPhone and iPad
 A watershed event
 The consumer unchained from Wintel
 Google Android systems
 Flexible and versatile operating system
 Open source
 Widespread availability of broadband Internet
 Spread of high-speed cellular networks
 Rise of cloud computing

19. End of boxed software
Subscription model
 Software as a service (SaaS)
Proprietary stores
Aggregators
Rise of the “app”

20.  Some overlap with the idea of a “program”
 Typically smaller with limited purpose
 Frequently use the Internet for some function
 Skip the browser
 Run full-screen without conventional menus

21. Future Way to Read News?

22.  Touch
 Voice
 Siri
 Gesture
 Eye tracking
 Thought

23.  Leap Motion

24.  What is new in Windows 8.1?
 More emphasis on the cloud – SkyDrive embedded
 Some interface changes
 More frequent upgrades
 What will Windows 9 be like?
 More mobile
 More cloud
 Desktop gone?

25.  New materials
 Miniaturization and low power devices
 Wearable computing
 Smart watches
 Google glass
 Internet of things
 75 billion devices connected by 2020 - Cisco
 Medical devices

29.  Line between personal computing and life
activities is blurred and disappearing
 Computing devices present in a multitude of
everyday activities
 Smart appliances
 Automobile software
 Future cars will be networked, personalized, and
connected to the cloud … and collecting personal data
about our preferences and our whereabouts —Dan Tynan
at PCWorld

31. Users choose a recipe and the appliance will know how to make it

32.  New security devices
 Fingerprint, retinal, face recognition
 Merging of PC and TV
 Interactive shopping
 Personal assistants
 Inexpensive basic computer kits
 Raspberry Pi

34.  3-D printing
 Foldable displays
 OLED (organic light-emitting diode)
 Parallel processing
 Graphical processors (GPU)
 Semantic search
 Neural networks and AI
 Biological materials for PC components
 3-D displays
 Robots

35.  Instead of bits, use “quantum states” (qubits)
 Very difficult technical problems but
technology is advancing rapidly
 Would increase computing power enormously
 Small commercial device already exists (D-
Wave)

39.  The Microsoft model of one operating system
everywhere and for everything is broken
 Different devices for different purposes
 Consumers and home PC users no longer have
to use the same kind of computers suitable to
business and big organizations

40.  Light-weight and portable
 Long battery life
 Most applications and files in the cloud
 Updates automatic and silent
 Security managed in the background
 Automatic backups
 Touch, voice, and gesture interface
 On-screen keypad with external keyboard
optional

41.  Will security get better?
 Is there any privacy?
 Is the cloud secure enough?
 Is the cloud reliable?

42.  Social
 Economic
 Political
 Societal attitudes, politics, and vested economic
interests often slow or even block the
application of new ideas and discoveries.

43.  Some basic facts about how to use computers
taught to all schoolchildren
 Security
 Some basic facts about how technology works
as part of school curriculum
 Teach how to evaluate information

44.  We can say for sure - Things we never thought
of will come along
 There will be no end of surprises
 But this presentation is at
The End