El comercio electrónico y su impacto en la economía y las telecomunicaciones Jason Whalley - Miembro de la International Telecommunications Society, Senior Lecturer. University of Strathclyde, Escocia

1. 6/23/2009
Outline
• E-commerce: definitions & scope
• E-commerce: drivers and impacts
• E-commerce & telecoms: an uneasy relationship
• Telecoms: fixed
• Telecoms: mobile
• Summary
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2. 6/23/2009
What is electronic commerce?
• Steinauer, Wakid&Rasberry A typology of definitions
(1997): Commerce
conducted through the
electronic exchange of Business to
consumer with
digitally encoded transaction
information. Business-to-consumer
Business-to-business
• Chaffey (2009): all
electronically mediated Electronic commerce infrastructure
information exchanges EFT + credit cards transactions
between an organisation
Source: OECD (1997) Measuring electronic
and its external commerce. OCDE/GD(97)185. Paris, France
stakeholders. 3
There are many different forms
of e-commerce
A matrix of e-commerce activity
Firms Consumers Non-profit
Firms B2B B2C B2G
Consumers C2B C2C C2G
Non-profit G2B G2C G2G
Source: Priessl, B. (2000) Employment effects of electronic commerce: concepts and
measurement problems,paper presented to the Euro CPR. March Venice.
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3. 6/23/2009
Through electronic commerce,
organisations can…
…Enter new markets
…Redefine their business processes
…Improve customer service
…Exploit resources located elsewhere
…Develop new business models
…etc
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Potential efficiency gains for
electronic transactions
Completion
Digital ++ Physical +
Routines ++ ++/++ ++/+
Preparation
Negotiations + +/++ +/+
Source: Verhoest, P., Leyten, J. & J. Whalley (1999) Costs and control in electronic
commerce: a reconnaissance flight, Communications & Strategies, 2nd Quarter
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4. 6/23/2009
ICT contribution to labour
productivity (1995-2004)
Source: OECD (2008: 27) The future of the internet economy: a
statistical profile, Paris, France. 7
Businesses selling/purchasing
over the Internet, 2007
Source: OECD (2008: 25) The future of the internet economy: a
8
statistical profile, Paris, France.
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5. 6/23/2009
Changing value chains
Intermediaries link buyers with sellers. Some have been side-stepped (dis-
intermediation), whilst others have appeared (re-intermediation).
LOCATE TRANSACT SUPPLY S
B
- manufacturers E
U - advertisers - financial & - wholesalers
- retailers credit services - maintenance L
Y - assemblers & - clearing & - insurance
cataloguers settlement - shippers & L
E - testers & - POS forwarders
evaluators - legal - warrantee & E
R services guarantee
providers R
Source: Hawkins, R. (1998) Creating a Positive Environment for Electronic Commerce in
Europe. SPRU: Brighton, UK
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A more diverse and complex
industrial landscape is emerging
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6. 6/23/2009
Value chains are being
reconfigured
• IP is altering the cost structure, and creating opportunities
• Reconfiguration requires focus: customer relationship, innovation or
infrastructure management (Hagel& Singer, 1999)
Source: Li & Whalley (2002: 462)
Deconstruction of the telecommunications
industry: from value chain to value networks,
Telecommunications Policy, Vol.26
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Complex relationships within the
new ICT ecosystem are emerging
6 symbiotic relationships in the
simplified model of the new ICT
• Fransman (2007)
ecosystem – Divides the ICT ecosystem into: final
consumers, content & applications,
network operators & network
element providers
– Identifies six sets of relationships
between these four layers
– Highlights that the relationships are
multi-dimensional (information,
financial, product & innovation)
– Places ICT within its broader context
– Demonstrates the inherent
instability of the ecosystem
Source: Fransman (2007) Innovation in the new ICT 12
ecosystem, Communications & Strategies, 4th quarter
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7. 6/23/2009
An uneasy relationship
Telecommunications
infrastructure Enables
Encourages
development of
Economic
activity
E-commerce requires Encourages
infrastructure, but Electronic
challenges how it is commerce
funded
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From a fixed to mobile
telecommunications industry
Source: ITU (2008: 2) Trends in telecom regulation, Geneva, Switzerland
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8. 6/23/2009
Broadband
Labour productivity and broadband in
Broadband selected EU countries (2001-2004)
• Is linked to competitiveness
• Gives rise to a range of
socio-economic benefits (e-
health, e-education etc)
• With its adoption being
driven by a range of factors
(such as age, income,
education etc)
Source: OECD (2008: 27) The future of the internet
economy: a statistical profile, Paris, France.
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Broadband
More a developed than developing country phenomena: A
broadband gap exists
Source: ITU (2008: 4) Trends in telecom regulation, Geneva, Switzerland
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9. 6/23/2009
What drives the numbers of
broadband adopters?
Source: Derived fromWhalley &Howick (2008) Understanding the drivers of broadband adoption: the case of rural and
remote Scotland, Journal of the Operational Research Society, available at www.palgrave-journals.com/jors
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Next generation networks
NGN
• IP-based, core networks
• Deliver capacity at reduced
costs cf. previous
technologies/network layouts
• Enable bundling and service
innovation
• But currently there is no
‘killer application’
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Source: http://www.btplc.com/21CN
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10. 6/23/2009
Does speed + services = profits
Source: Carter, C. (2007) Future broadband: Policy approach to Next Generation Access, OFCOM,
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London
It’s a mobile world
Source: ITU (2008: 3) Trends in telecom regulation, Geneva, Switzerland
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11. 6/23/2009
Mobiles facilitate the exchange of
information
Information is at the heart of
markets
• Absence, uncertainty & asymmetry
shape how markets develop and
whether trade takes place
• Mobiles can connect buyers with
sellers
• Mobiles save on some activities,
encouraging others
Source: Jagun, Heeks& Whalley (2008) The impact of mobile telephony on
developing country micro-enterprises: a Nigerian case study, Information
technologies and international development, Vol.4 (4) Fall/Winter 21
3 Group
• A 3G ‘pure play’ new
entrant
– Initial ‘value added’
based strategy swiftly
abandoned
– Replaced by a volume
and price sensitive
strategy
– Some data services have
proved to be popular
– Launched mobile Skype
in 2009
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12. 6/23/2009
The 3 Group has experienced
declining APRU…
12-month trailing average revenue per active user to 31 Dec 2008
Total Non-voice
Prepaid Postpaid Blended % ARPU % of total
total variance APRU
cf. 31 Dec
2007
UK & £15.77 £38.91 £33.37 -14% £11.25 33.5%
Ireland
Italy €13.42 €43.50 €25.34 -14% €8.03 31.7%
Australia A$37.04 A$69.67 A$66.54 -3% A$20.76 31.2%
Sweden & SEK122.01 SEK396.77 SEK379.18 -12% SEK137.74 36.3%
Denmark
Austria €15.11 €34.34 €33.04 -22% €12.00 36.3%
3 Group €14.92 €43.88 €33.50 -16% €11.00 32.8%
average
Source: Hutchison Whampoa (2009) Annual Report 2008, available at www.hutchison-whampoa.com 23
…but it is not alone.
Source: Global Mobile (2009) Despite maturing markets, certain operators succeed in
increasing ARPU in 3Q08, Vol.16 (2) 24
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13. 6/23/2009
iPhone
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…but who benefits?
Operators introducing the
iPhone have witnessed: Elsewhere
• Increased APRU Apple
• Reduced churn • Has created a lucrative but
evolving business model
• Increases in market share
• Has created a reference product,
which whilst not perfect is hard
But to beat
• Separating out the iPhone Application developers
effects from other factors is • Some have benefited from the
low cost/high volume market
hard to do in practice
• Lock-in through linking mobile &
fixed versions of
products/software
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14. 6/23/2009
Global average monthly residential
mobile broadband price, 4Q08
Source: Global Mobile (2009) Operators adjust strategy to increase popularity of mobile
broadband, Vol.16 (8)
27
Monthly fee for 1GB mobile
broadband contract, 3Q08
Source: Global Mobile (2009) Operators in Western Europe differentiate on price and
download limits in mobile broadband push, Vol.16 (2) 28
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15. 6/23/2009
Mobile banking
Source: Coyle, D. (2007) Introduction, The transformational potential of m-transactions,
Vodafone Public Policy No 6 29
Pioneers are to be found in
emerging markets
Well known examples include: Issues:
• Which business model?
• Ensuring inter-operability
between systems
• Shaping the regulatory and
liability framework
• Building and maintaining trust in
and acceptance of the
service/technology
• Encouraging the use of micro-
payments
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16. 6/23/2009
Summary
Electronic commerce
• Is associated with many socio-economic benefits
• Exacerbates the existing challenges faced by telecom
companies
• Questions ‘traditional’ funding mechanisms used in the
telecoms industry
• Encourages the search for ‘killer applications’
• Highlights the uneasy (fraught) relationship between
infrastructure and content
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Contact details
Dr Jason Whalley
E: jason.whalley@strath.ac.uk
T: +44 (0) 141 548 4546
F: +44 (0) 141 552 6686
W: www.strath.ac.uk/mansci
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