The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary
1. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 1
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
--If the Democratic Senate primary were held today, would you vote for
Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or former Congressman Ed Case?
[NOTE: Order of presentation of candidate names was randomized]
QDemMatchup
Hirono 46%
Case 46%
Unsure 8%
Total 100%
2. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 2
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
DemMatchup * US Crosstabulation
% within US
US
Right Wrong Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 54% 27% 61%
Case 39% 63% 23%
Unsure 7% 10% 16%
Total 100% 100% 100%
US * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup
DemMatchup
Hirono Case Unsure
US Right 69% 50% 45%
Wrong 20% 46% 39%
Unsure 12% 5% 16%
Total 100% 100% 100%
3. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 3
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
DemMatchup * Hawaii Crosstabulation
% within Hawaii
Hawaii
Right Wrong Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 60% 26% 58%
Case 33% 64% 31%
Unsure 7% 10% 11%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Hawaii * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup
DemMatchup
Hirono Case Unsure
Hawaii Right 68% 37% 44%
Wrong 24% 58% 48%
Unsure 8% 4% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100%
4. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 4
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
Oahu Only:
DemMatchup * Rail Crosstabulation
% within Rail
Rail
Support Oppose Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 55% 35% 48%
Case 38% 58% 27%
Unsure 7% 6% 25%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Oahu Only:
Rail * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup
DemMatchup
Hirono Case Unsure
Rail Support 58% 41% 40%
Oppose 33% 54% 32%
Unsure 10% 5% 27%
Total 100% 100% 100%
5. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 5
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
DemMatchup * Marriage Crosstabulation
% within Marriage
Marriage
Yes No Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 56% 32% 36%
Case 37% 58% 49%
Unsure 7% 10% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Marriage * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup
DemMatchup
Hirono Case Unsure
Marriage Yes 67% 44% 41%
No 25% 46% 41%
Unsure 8% 11% 17%
Total 100% 100% 100%
6. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 6
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
DemMatchup * Economy Crosstabulation
% within Economy
Economy
Jobs/Economy Debt/SS/Medi Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 53% 41% 44%
Case 37% 52% 43%
Unsure 9% 7% 13%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Economy * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup
DemMatchup
Hirono Case Unsure
Economy Jobs/Economy 42% 30% 40%
Debt/SS/Medi 45% 58% 40%
Unsure 13% 12% 19%
Total 100% 100% 100%
12. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 12
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
DemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation
% within Race_Ethnicity
Race_Ethnicity
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
DemMatchu Hirono 44% 47% 44% 62% 37% 38% 49%
p Case 50% 42% 43% 29% 57% 63% 44%
Unsure 6% 11% 13% 9% 6% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemMatchup * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High
School College Graduate
No Degree Degree Degree Degree
DemMatchup Hirono 42% 50% 45% 45%
Case 45% 40% 47% 47%
Unsure 13% 10% 8% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
DemMatchup * Religion Crosstabulation
% within Religion
Religion
Other
Evangelic Christia Buddhis
Catholic al Mormon n t Shinto Jewish Other None
DemMatch Hirono 46% 30% 42% 43% 62% 80% 60% 35% 48%
up Case 47% 58% 42% 47% 28% 20% 40% 62% 45%
Unsure 7% 12% 15% 10% 10% 3% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
13. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 13
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
DemMatchup * Military_Family Crosstabulation
% within Military_Family
Military_Family
Yes No
DemMatchup Hirono 40% 47%
Case 50% 45%
Unsure 10% 8%
Total 100% 100%
DemMatchup * Annual Household Income Crosstabulation
% within Annual Household Income
Annual Household Income
$50,000 or $50,000- $100,000
less $100,000 or More
DemMatchup Hirono 53% 45% 38%
Case 38% 48% 54%
Unsure 9% 7% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100%
14. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 14
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
Second Congressional District Only:
DemMatchup * Congress Crosstabulation
% within Congress
Congress
Marx Gabbard Hanneman Kiaaina Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 58% 46% 49% 56% 38%
Case 39% 48% 46% 44% 40%
Unsure 3% 7% 5% 23%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Oahu Only:
DemMatchup * Mayor Crosstabulation
% within Mayor
Mayor
Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell Unsure
DemMatchup Hirono 32% 50% 54% 33%
Case 61% 39% 41% 41%
Unsure 7% 11% 5% 25%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
15. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 15
731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%
--In a [General Election] contest between Mazie Hirono and Linda Lingle, who
would you vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only]
QHironoLingle
Hirono 65%
Lingle 28%
Unsure 7%
Total 100%
HironoLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup
DemMatchup
Hirono Case Unsure
HironoLingle Hirono 94% 38% 50%
Lingle 4% 55% 19%
Unsure 2% 7% 31%
Total 100% 100% 100%
--In a [General Election] contest between Ed Case and Linda Lingle, who would
you vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only]
QCaseLingle
Case 68%
Lingle 18%
Unsure 14%
Total 100%
CaseLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation
% within DemMatchup
DemMatchup
Hirono Case Unsure
CaseLingle Case 68% 70% 52%
Lingle 12% 25% 15%
Unsure 20% 5% 33%
Total 100% 100% 100%