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Civil Beat Poll August 2012 Honolulu Mayor Results
- 1. Honolulu Mayor 1 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Vote_Screen Already voted 29% Definitely voting 70% Might vote 1% Total 100% Mayor Cayetano 51% Carlisle 19% Caldwell 24% None 1% Unsure 4% Total 100% Mayor_Decide Two weeks 18% Past month 20% Month+ 61% Unsure 1% Total 100%
- 2. Honolulu Mayor 2 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% (Cayetano Supporters Only: Sample Size = 561; Margin of Error +/- 4.1%) Cayetano_Second Carlisle 24% Caldwell 23% Neither 47% Unsure 6% Total 100% (Carlisle Supporters Only: Sample Size = 210; Margin of Error +/- 6.8%) Carlisle_Second Cayetano 7% Caldwell 70% Neither 19% Unsure 3% Total 100% (Caldwell Supporters Only: Sample Size = 263; Margin of Error +/- 6.0%) Caldwell_Second Cayetano 12% Carlisle 66% Neither 15% Unsure 7% Total 100% Rail Support 39% Oppose 55% Unsure 6% Total 100%
- 3. Honolulu Mayor 3 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Ads A lot 22% A little 37% None 37% Unsure 4% Total 100% Debates A lot 40% A little 33% None 23% Unsure 4% Total 100% News A lot 42% A little 37% None 17% Unsure 4% Total 100% Endorsements A lot 10% A little 28% None 58% Unsure 4% Total 100% Own_Research A lot 58% A little 28% None 9% Unsure 5% Total 100%
- 4. Honolulu Mayor 4 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0%
- 5. Honolulu Mayor 5 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Obama Approve strongly 45% Approve somewhat 20% Disapprove somewhat 13% Disapprove strongly 20% Unsure 2% Total 100% Obama_Condensed Approve 65% Disapprove 33% Unsure 2% Total 100%
- 6. Honolulu Mayor 6 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Gender Male 46% Female 54% Total 100% Age 18-29 4% 30-39 5% 40-49 12% 50-64 37% 65+ 42% Total 100% Ethnicity Caucasian 37% Japanese 22% Filipino 8% Hawaiian 10% Chinese 9% Hispanic/Latino 1% Other/Mixed 13% Total 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive 21% Moderate 40% Conservative 25% Unsure 14% Total 100% Party Democrat 47% Republican 19% Independent 27% Unsure 7%
- 7. Honolulu Mayor 7 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Total 100%
- 8. Honolulu Mayor 8 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Education No degree 3% High School Degree 25% College Degree 41% Graduate Degree 31% Total 100% Religion Catholic 27% Evangelical 11% Mormon 2% Other Christian 23% Buddhist 10% Other 5% None 20% Total 100% Military_Family Yes 14% No 86% Total 100% Union_Househod Yes 31% No 69% Total 100%
- 9. Honolulu Mayor 9 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Relationship_Status Married 63% Civil Partnership 4% Single 13% Divorced/Separated 10% Widowed 11% Total 100% Income_Household $50,000 or less 31% $50,000-$100,000 40% $100,000 or more 29% Total 100% County_CD Oahu 1 71% Oahu 2 29% Total 100%
- 10. Honolulu Mayor 10 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Vote_Screen Crosstabulation % within Vote_Screen Vote_Screen Already Definitely voted voting Might vote Mayor Cayetano 50% 51% 69% Carlisle 22% 18% 13% Caldwell 25% 24% None 2% 1% 6% Unsure 3% 5% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Mayor_Decide Crosstabulation % within Mayor_Decide Mayor_Decide Two weeks Past month Month+ Unsure Mayor Cayetano 45% 50% 58% 71% Carlisle 25% 20% 19% 14% Caldwell 30% 29% 23% 14% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor_Decide * Mayor Crosstabulation % within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell Mayor_Decide Two weeks 14% 22% 21% Past month 19% 20% 24% Month+ 66% 57% 55% Unsure 1% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100%
- 11. Honolulu Mayor 11 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Rail Crosstabulation % within Rail Rail Support Oppose Unsure Mayor Cayetano 7% 85% 27% Carlisle 41% 4% 8% Caldwell 48% 6% 30% None 1% 1% 6% Unsure 3% 3% 29% Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * Mayor Crosstabulation % within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None Unsure Rail Support 5% 85% 78% 25% 27% Oppose 92% 12% 14% 50% 35% Unsure 3% 2% 7% 25% 38% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 12. Honolulu Mayor 12 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Ads Crosstabulation % within Ads Ads A lot A little None Unsure Mayor Cayetano 48% 46% 59% 39% Carlisle 25% 21% 14% 13% Caldwell 24% 28% 21% 13% None 0% 1% 1% 11% Unsure 4% 4% 4% 24% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Debates Crosstabulation % within Debates Debates A lot A little None Unsure Total Mayor Cayetano 52% 51% 52% 37% 51% Carlisle 20% 17% 22% 17% 19% Caldwell 26% 27% 19% 9% 24% None 1% 2% 0% 9% 1% Unsure 2% 3% 6% 28% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * News Crosstabulation % within News News A lot A little None Unsure Mayor Cayetano 47% 54% 57% 35% Carlisle 21% 18% 19% 9% Caldwell 29% 22% 19% 12% None 1% 2% 1% 9% Unsure 2% 4% 4% 35% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 13. Honolulu Mayor 13 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Endorsements Crosstabulation % within Endorsements Endorsements A lot A little None Unsure Mayor Cayetano 41% 37% 60% 36% Carlisle 18% 22% 18% 7% Caldwell 35% 33% 18% 16% None 1% 2% 1% 11% Unsure 4% 5% 2% 30% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Own_Research Crosstabulation % within Own_Research Own_Research A lot A little None Unsure Mayor Cayetano 56% 45% 45% 38% Carlisle 17% 22% 28% 15% Caldwell 24% 28% 19% 11% None 1% 1% 3% 2% Unsure 2% 4% 6% 34% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 14. Honolulu Mayor 14 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Obama Crosstabulation % within Obama Obama Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove strongly somewhat somewhat strongly Unsure Mayor Cayetano 39% 48% 64% 73% 40% Carlisle 23% 16% 19% 16% 4% Caldwell 35% 25% 15% 5% 12% None 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% Unsure 1% 8% 2% 5% 40% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Obama * Mayor Crosstabulation % within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None Unsure Obama Approve strongly 34% 53% 66% 50% 15% Approve somewhat 19% 17% 21% 25% 38% Disapprove somewhat 16% 13% 8% 6% 6% Disapprove strongly 29% 17% 5% 13% 21% Unsure 2% 0% 1% 6% 21% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 15. Honolulu Mayor 15 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation % within Obama_Condensed Obama_Condensed Approve Disapprove Unsure Mayor Cayetano 42% 70% 40% Carlisle 21% 17% 4% Caldwell 32% 9% 12% None 2% 1% 4% Unsure 4% 4% 40% Total 100% 100% 100% Obama_Condensed * Mayor Crosstabulation % within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None Unsure Obama_Condensed Approve 53% 70% 86% 75% 52% Disapprove 45% 30% 13% 19% 27% Unsure 2% 0% 1% 6% 21% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 16. Honolulu Mayor 16 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Gender Crosstabulation % within Gender Gender Male Female Mayor Cayetano 51% 51% Carlisle 20% 18% Caldwell 23% 25% None 2% 1% Unsure 4% 4% Total 100% 100% Mayor * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ Mayor Cayetano 33% 46% 55% 49% 54% Carlisle 25% 16% 20% 20% 18% Caldwell 28% 26% 18% 27% 23% None 4% 2% 1% 2% Unsure 15% 8% 5% 4% 3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure Mayor Cayetano 39% 50% 67% 44% Carlisle 21% 17% 17% 22% Caldwell 36% 28% 10% 22% None 0% 1% 2% 4% Unsure 3% 4% 4% 8% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 17. Honolulu Mayor 17 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Party Crosstabulation % within Party Party Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Mayor Cayetano 40% 62% 62% 49% Carlisle 21% 22% 14% 13% Caldwell 33% 12% 19% 20% None 1% 2% 1% 3% Unsure 4% 3% 4% 16% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Party * Mayor Crosstabulation % within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None Unsure Party Democrat 38% 54% 65% 44% 39% Republican 23% 22% 9% 25% 11% Independent 34% 20% 21% 19% 26% Unsure 6% 5% 5% 13% 24% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Education High School College Graduate No degree Degree Degree Degree Mayor Cayetano 31% 56% 50% 52% Carlisle 10% 20% 19% 17% Caldwell 31% 19% 25% 28% None 7% 2% 2% 0% Unsure 21% 3% 4% 3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 18. Honolulu Mayor 18 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Ethnicity Ethnicity Hispanic/ Other/ Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Latino Mixed Mayor Cayetano 56% 46% 53% 51% 41% 75% 48% Carlisle 23% 12% 21% 12% 17% 13% 24% Caldwell 18% 34% 18% 31% 32% 13% 21% None 0% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% Unsure 3% 6% 4% 1% 9% 6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Religion Crosstabulation % within Religion Religion Other Catholic Evangelical Mormon Christian Buddhist Other None Mayor Cayetano 55% 47% 46% 52% 52% 55% 46% Carlisle 20% 25% 19% 16% 10% 14% 21% Caldwell 21% 20% 31% 28% 29% 25% 26% None 2% 1% 5% 2% 1% Unsure 1% 8% 4% 4% 5% 4% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 19. Honolulu Mayor 19 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No Mayor Cayetano 53% 51% Carlisle 16% 19% Caldwell 21% 25% None 3% 1% Unsure 7% 4% Total 100% 100% Mayor * Union_Househod Crosstabulation % within Union_Househod Union_Househod Yes No Mayor Cayetano 46% 53% Carlisle 17% 19% Caldwell 32% 22% None 2% 1% Unsure 3% 5% Total 100% 100% Mayor * Relationship_Status Crosstabulation % within Relationship_Status Relationship_Status Civil Married Partnership Single Divorced/Separated Widowed Mayor Cayetano 52% 62% 42% 51% 50% Carlisle 19% 27% 15% 16% 21% Caldwell 25% 5% 31% 31% 19% None 0% 4% 1% 5% Unsure 4% 5% 9% 1% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- 20. Honolulu Mayor 20 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Income_Household Crosstabulation % within Income_Household Income_Household $50,000 or $50,000- $100,000 less $100,000 or more Mayor Cayetano 51% 52% 46% Carlisle 16% 19% 21% Caldwell 21% 25% 32% None 3% 1% Unsure 8% 3% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * County_CD Crosstabulation % within County_CD County_CD Oahu 1 Oahu 2 Mayor Cayetano 51% 52% Carlisle 18% 23% Caldwell 26% 19% None 2% 1% Unsure 4% 5% Total 100% 100%