2016-10-05 CIAT, Cali - Colombia. USAID delegation

1. Carlos Navarro
J. Tarapues, J. Ramirez, A. Jarvis
Major global dataset:
CCAFS-Climate

2. Concepts Homogenization
• General Circulation Model (GCM): is a type of climate
model. It employs a mathematical model of the general
circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. These
models are the basis for model predictions of future
climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC.
• Downscaling: is a general concept that embraces various
methods for increasing the spatial resolution and reduce
some of the biases in order to improve the usability of
climate scenarios.
• Bias correction: correct the climate input data provided
by GCM for systematic statistical deviations from
observational data. They generally adjust the long-term
mean by adding the average difference between the
simulated and observed data over the historical period to
the simulated data, or by applying an associated
multiplicative correction factor.

3. Climate and Agriculture
Needs
Limitations

4. • Multiple variables
• Very high spatial
resolution
• Mid-high temporal (i.e.
monthly, daily) resolution
• Accurate weather
forecasts and climate
projections
• High certainty. Both for
present and future
–T°
• Max,
• Min,
• Mean
–Prec
–HR
– Radiation
– Wind
– …….
Lessimportance
Morecertainty
Climate and Agriculture
Agriculture, a niche business

5. Global scale 
Regional or local scale 
Resolutions
• Horizontal resolution 100 to
300 km
GCMs are the only way
we can predict the future
climate
GCM “Global Climate Model”

6. Problems
Needs
Options
• Statistical or dynamical
downscaling methods.
• Bias correction
methods.• Correct biases
• Provide high
resolution and
contextualized data
• Systematic errors or biases.
• Low resolution (> 50 Km).
• Incomplete knowledge of
climate system processes.
• High deviations from
observational data.
Why Do We Need Downscaling?

7. Hawkins, 2012
GCM Biases and Calibration

8. http://ccafs-climate.org

9. Ramírez-Villegas and Challinor, 2012
AI GCM: GCM data “as is”, SD GCM: statistically
downscaled GCM, PS GCM: pattern scaled GCM,
WG GCM: GCM data through a weather
generator, SC Variables: systematic changes in
target key variables, Unclear: not specified clearly
in study, ARPEGE: the ARPEGE Atmospheric GCM
Downcaling by serveral methods in CCAFS-
Climate

10. Sessions
126,768
Users
66,682
Page Views
466,120
Pages/Session
3.68
Avg. Session Duration
00:04:44
Bounce Rate
42.11%

11. Significant impact by
putting climate change
information into the hands
of non-climate scientists
and next users which
represent up to 19% of all
CCAFS-Climate users.
> 400 Publications

12. CORDEX Dynamical Downscaled Data
Undefined periods
Prec, Tmax, Tmin, Bioclim + otrhers
0.44deg (~50km)
At least 2 CORDEX Domains
2014
ETA Dynamical Downscaled Data
4 GCM - 2 SCENARIOS,
4 future periods.
0.33deg (~40km)
South America
4 RCP
106 GCM (about 25 models per RCP)
4 future periods
5 climatological variables
4 spatial resolutions (the highest at 1 Km2)
Full set of CMIP5 Delta Method
Downscaled Data
CMIP5 Raw and Processed Daily Data with several bias-correction
Methodologies (Online processing)
2015-2016
DSSAT (.wtg)
APSIM (json)
Others (ascii)
2030’s, 2050’s, 2070’s, 2080’s
Prec, Tmax, Tmin, Rsds
Raw Resolution
Extractions online in
formats of interest to
Crop Modelers
We are focused now in
increase its use amongst
crop modelers

13. http://ccafs-climate.org/data_bias_corrected/

14. http://www.ccafs-climate.org/weather_stations

15. Climate Wizard
integration
• A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the
difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information.
http://climatewizard.ciat.cgiar.org/
Applied climate change analysis
• Provides non-climate specialists with simple
analyses and innovative graphical depictions
for conveying.
• Provides both the data for impacts research, as
well as the basic information that is needed to
understand the IPCC climate projections within
specific geographic areas throughout the
world. Provides projections for policy and
practice.
• It can get relatively complicated (such as when
you visualize changing probabilities of extreme
events) or it can be simple such as looking at
maximum temperatures during a month of
interest

16. WOCAT Integration
The World Overview of Conservation
Approaches and Technologies
API development:
• Developer for
WOCAT
Sustainable Land
Management
Database
• API to query
climate change
projections from
ClimateWizard

17. GCMs
Effective
adaptation
options
MarkSim
DSSAT
Statistical Downscaling
Dynamical downscaling:
Regional Climate Model
EcoCrop
Statistical
Downscaling
MaxEnt
Based on niches
Probability
Environmental gradient
Based on process
We use calibrated GCM to quantify the impacts
and adaptation options through crops models

18. Gourdji et al. (in prep.)
Percent change in yields by 2030s and RCP4.5
Using crop models to look at crop yields
under future climate

19. Vallejo and Ramirez-Villegas, BID Report (2016)
Rainfed
agriculture
vulnerability
hotspots
… and to identify vulnerability hotspots

20. So take a look…Conservation plans, niche
models, crop models, and
biodiversity evaluation require
high resolution inputs.
Downscaling produces precise
tools that allow local rather
than regional or global
predictions of climatic
changes.
CCAFS-Climate is a web service
to query Downscaled data, Bias
Corrected data and weather
information for a broad of user,
not only scientist.
Conclusions

21. Carlos Navarro-Racines
c.e.navarro@cgiar.org