2. Contents
• Background
– The problem: Climate, climate change and
agriculture
– The framework: CCAFS
• Theme 1 workplan
• Modelling impacts of climate change
• An example with beans
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
3. Background: climate, climate change
and agriculture
• Agriculture is a niche-dependent activity
– Located in suitable AND subjectively selected
areas
– Affected by variations in climatic and social drivers
• Yet there are shared strengths and
weaknesses, each system is an specific case
• Climate is the least predictabl driver of
agriculture
• Climate will change
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
4. • Population growth
• Non-environmentally
friendly
technologies/practices
LEAD TO GREENHOUSE
GASES EMISSIONS
OUTBREAKS
5.
6. Background: CCAFS
• Stands for Challenge Program on Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security
• Created by the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
“Assessing impacts of climate
change, facilitate adaptation and
alleviate poverty under changing
conditions”
8. Background: CCAFS
• Where is it commited to work? Why?
Prone to drought &
flooding, but with
strong regional
climate institutions
for adapting
Prone to drought
& flooding
(cyclones), and
risk from sea level
rise
10. Theme 1: Adaptation pathways under
progressive climate change
• What does a 2C degree warmer world mean for
agriculture?
• What precipitation trend is expected for the different
regions
• What practices and technologies do exist?
• Which of these can be transferred to facilitate
adaption? How?
• What new need to be developed/adjusted for
adaption
• How to communicate all this?
16. Modelling approaches
• Selection of crops to assess
• Selection of crop models to use
• Collating input climate and agricultural
data
• Design of experiments
• Calibration, validation and crop model
runs
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
17. Developing
adaptation
strategies
• Explore adaptation options
–Genetic improvement
–On-farm management practices
• Test them via modelling
• Build “adaptation packages”
• Assess technology transfer options
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
18. Examples: Modelling bean production
Growing season (days) 90
Killing temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute
temperature (°C)
13.6
Minimum optimum
temperature (°C)
17.5
Minimum absolute
rainfall (mm)
200
Minimum optimum
rainfall (mm)
363
Maximum optimum
rainfall (mm)
450
Maximum absolute
rainfall (mm)
710
Growing season (days) 90
Killing temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute
temperature (°C)
13.6
Minimum optimum
temperature (°C)
17.5
Maximum optimum
temperature (°C)
23.1
Maximum absolute
temperature (°C)
25.6