1. Use of climate analogues for impact studies
and designing adaptation options
Flora Mer

3. Climate Analogue Applications to
design adaptation options
1. Explaining differences in crop performance
2. Target varieties and crops under certain
environments
3. Farmer exchanges (Farms of the Future project)
4. Plant genetic resources interdependence
And also:
4. Evaluate outputs of crop models
5. Targeting agricultural trials

4. The principle
Differences in agricultural systems are related to
climates –hence we can transfer technologies (i.e.
germplasm) that work if climates are similar

5. 1. Explaining differences in crop performance
West et al. 2010, based on Monfreda et al. 2008

6. High yields
Cassava yield

7. Temperature similarity
Could we achieve
high yields here?

8. 2. Target crops or varieties
Kontela, Mali is a potential analogue to
Kaffrine, Senegal
Yield data available in the Agtrials
database:
http://www.agtrials.org
The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali
could help us to know the future
sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.
Sorghum yield data
Sorghum
K (kg/ha) N (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield (t/ha)
Variety
CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68
CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10
CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55
CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33
CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54
CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06

9. 3. The Farm of the Future project
Taking the analogue concept to the field
What CCAFS output?
The climate analogue
tool identifies the range
of places whose current
climates correspond to
the future of a chosen
locality
Why is it useful?
Choice of sites for cross-site
farmer visits and
participatory crop and
livestock trials

10. Farm of the future in Tanzania
“Where can we find at present
locations the future expected climate of
a selected Reference Site to transfer
adaptation options to climate change?”

11. Farms of the Future in Tanzania (Lushoto)
Reference site: Yamba

12. Farms of the Future in Tanzania (Lushoto)
How to run the analogue tool?
– Various variable combinations
• Temperature and precipitation
• Only temperature
• Only precipitation
• Combination of bioclimatic variables ( Rtotal, …)
– Various time periods: All year, specific growing season,
rainy season, dry season,…
– Criteria of maps display: Within the 5/10/15 % more
analogous & where 80 /70 % of the climate models used
agree
– Need to take into account socio-economic parameters, soil
parameters,…

13. Farms of the future in Tanzania
Analogue map
Lushoto
CCAFS site
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Njombe
Nyombo
- Analogue run with
– all year
– precipitation and temperature
- Starting point: Yamba
Mbinga
- Map shows the 15% best
analogues to which 80% of the
GCMs agreed

14. Boxplot comparing dissimilarity value between the reference
site and the different potential analogue sites selected
SPREAD is due to climate models

15. Graphs comparing
future climate of the
reference site with
current climate of
target sites selected
 The best analogues site
would be the one with the
more similar future climate to
the future climate of the
reference site
 Farmer exchange from the
reference site to the analogue
site selected

16. Farms of the future in Tanzania
Journey to Yamba’s plausible futures
Analogue study Tour
Villages visited Starting
Lushoto
Mbuzii point
Yamba
Kinole
- SACCOS visit
Morogoro - Market visit
Mwitikilwa
-Market value chain social -Weather station visit
enterprise visit - Bean trial visit
- Input supply Stockists Njombe - Tree nursery visit
visit Nyombo
station
-W eather Sepukila Village:
do trial
- Avoca arieties trial -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and
v
-Banana tility mngt
water conservation technique
fer -Coffee nursery
- Maize -Stoves
Masasi Village:
-Water source
-Fish pond
Mbinga -Biogas
Mtama Village:
- Bee keeping

17. Farm of the future in Ghana
“Where can we find at present
locations the future expected climate of
a selected Reference Site to transfer
adaptation options to climate change?”

18. Farms of the Future in Ghana (Lawra-Jirapa)
Reference site: Doggoh

19. Farms of the Future in Ghana (Lawra-Jirapa)
Reference site: Doggoh
Zoom

20. Farms of the Future in Ghana
- Reference
site: Doggoh,
Lawra Jirapa
- Take
farmers to
villages in
Burkina Faso

21. Farm of the future in Nepal
Participatory systemic analysis of:
•Key environmental challenges and vulnerabilities (adaptation to what)
•Scope of the system under examination (adaptation of what and over what
time frame)
•Local values and visions and aspirations for the future (adaptation from
whose perspective)
•Existing coping strategies and tools, strengths and assets in the
community (building on present strengths)
•Social, cultural, economic and
political barriers and
opportunities for adaptation
Back-casting is then conducted
to develop step-by-step plans Socially and culturally
which build on locally available appropriate exchange
strengths and resources to locations are chosen from
reach community identified climate analogue locations
goals and visions through a participatory
process.
Farmer exchanges facilitate shared
examination of challenges,
opportunities and strategies for
reaching locally defined goals and
visions.

22. Farms of the Future in Nepal
Reference site: Beora

23. Farms of the Future in Nepal
Reference site: Beora

24. Farms of the future
Journey Beora’s plausible futures
Analogue
1st Exchange visit - Nepal
Chitwan - Beora
Blog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/

25. 4. Climate analogues
and the plant genetic resources
interdependency

26. Analogues & the International Treaty of Plant Genetic
Resources for Food and Agriculture (IT-PGRFA)
Tougou,Burkina Faso (x= -2.252, y= 13.691)
Millet: June to October
Forward analysis: Where can we find the present climate of Tougou in the future ?
Share benefits of Plant Genetic Resources?
Dissimilarity Index

27. Analogues & IT-PGRFA
• Help breeders to select future plant varieties and to
identify which species provide important traits useful to
adapt to Climate Change
• Build scenarios with users about opportunities to increase
access to foreign PGRFA in the future
• Identify what kinds of PGRFA are useful from other parts of
the world to meet climate change adaptation needs
• Find the places where it is urgent to conserve plant genetic
resources

28. Conclusions
• We believe the analogue approach as an
interesting tool for analysing impacts and
identifying and supporting adaptation strategies
• By using analogue in different projects, we are
validating our method
• However, we need to continue improving
methods based on calibration and validation
• We’re interested in feedback, suggestions for
improvement, and working with you in the use of
the tool to continue its improvement

29. Adaptation to Progressive
Climate Change 1 one
Thank you.
>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool
Contact us !
– Andy Jarvis (lead scientist)
a.jarvis@cgiar.org
– David Arango (lead developer)
d.arango@cgiar.org
– Flora Mer (FOTF-CIAT contact)
f.mer@cgiar.org
– Julian Ramirez (co-developer)
j.r.villegas@cgiar.orgc
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