A Eitzinger - Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Kenyan Coffee Sector

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Kenyan Coffee Sector

CIAT – International Center for Tropical Agriculture ,[object Object],[object Object],DAPA: Decision and Policy Analysis What we do: Spatial Analysis, climate change, Impact analysis models. Project-Team: A. Eitzinger, Dr. Peter Laderach, O. Ovalle, J. Ramírez and Dr. A. Jarvis

Content ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Introductions ,[object Object],[object Object],A Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Kenyan Coffee Sector

Research questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],B Pics by Neil Palmer (CIAT)

Methods and data generation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C

Historical climate generation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C

Future climate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C ,[object Object],[object Object]

Global circulation models (GCM) ,[object Object],C

bioclimatic variables ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C

Generation of future climate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C Current climate + Climate-Change = Future climate

Suitability prediction ,[object Object],C MAXENT is generally considered to be the most accurate model (Elith et al. 2006) and was selected for the analyses of the present study after an initial iteration of analysis in the study region using all four models. Current climate Future climate Relation Projection Evidence data of coffee crops today Prediction of Future evidence of Coffee crops 19 bioclim variables Key of investigation

Methodology – the process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C

Results of analysis: Regional changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],D

Results of analysis: Regional changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],D

Results of analysis: Regional changes ,[object Object],[object Object],D

Results of analysis: Regional changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],D

Results of analysis: Regional changes ,[object Object],D

Results of analysis: Relation of suitability & altitude ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],D

Results of analysis: model agreement ,[object Object],D

Results of analysis: stepwise regression ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],D

Results of analysis: site-specific changes ,[object Object],D

Results of analysis: site-specific changes D Bungoma Embu Kericho Kiambu Kirinyaga Kisii Machakos Meru Murang'a Nithi Nyamira Nyeri Trans-Nzoia

Conclusions and recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],E

Conclusions and recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],E

Conclusions and recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],E

Conclusions and recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],E

DAPA – Decision and Policy Analysis group of CIAT: A. Eitzinger, Dr. P.Laderach O. Ovalle, J. Ramírez and Dr. A. Jarvis Thank you!

A Eitzinger - Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Kenyan Coffee Sector

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