Emergency management 11 Emergency Management Abstract: In the month of December, 2019 there was outbreak of pneumonia with unknown reason in Wuhan, China. Wuhan is the center of attention because of the respiratory disorder cause by a virus called Corona and also known as Novel COVID – 19. Validate the existence of this virus was also diagnosed in Wuhan. Then it start spreading all over the world due to the social gatherings. It ultimately take thousands of people towards death. Then after its huge destruction a final step of lockdown is taken up by the government of each country. The animal-to-human transmission was presumed as the main mechanism. It was concluded that the virus could also be transmitted from human-to-human, and symptomatic people are the most frequent source of COVID-19 spread. The virus-host interaction and the evolution of the epidemic, with specific reference to the times when the epidemic will reach its peak. Introduction: There is scanty knowledge on the actual pandemic potential of this new SARS-like virus. It might be speculated that SARS-CoV-2 epidemic is grossly underdiagnosed and that the infection is silently spreading across the globe. There are no comparable analogies to corona virus. This virus is not like any of the other epidemiological threats that have emerged in recent decades; it is less fatal but much more contagious. Distribution of cases by the following: · Time: The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported on December 31, 2019. · Place: the epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in a remote region of China, far from Wuhan, we analyzed the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Gansu Province Explanation of the research topic (corona virus): As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly expanding in China and beyond, with the potential to become a world-wide pandemic, real-time analyses of epidemiological data are needed to increase situational awareness and inform interventions. The current most likely hypothesis is that an intermediary host animal has played a role in the transmission. Identifying the animal source of the 2019-nCoV would help to ensure that there will be no further future similar outbreaks with the same virus and will also help understanding the initial spread of the disease. Numerator (cases of corona virus): Deaths divided the total of deaths plus recoveries. In early days because of the exponential increase new cases significantly outpace recoveries. You’re dividing by new cases but the numerator hasn’t had a chance to catch up to the death toll yet to be associated with those cases. If you look at COVID 19 on Feb 17, you get the 2% number only if dividing by total cases. If you look vs recovered cases, it’s 13%. The WHO’s fatality percentage, announced March 17, 2020, is based simply on the number of deaths g.

1. Emergency management
11
Emergency Management
Abstract:
In the month of December, 2019 there was outbreak of
pneumonia with unknown reason in Wuhan, China. Wuhan is the
center of attention because of the respiratory disorder cause by
a virus called Corona and also known as Novel COVID – 19.
Validate the existence of this virus was also diagnosed in
Wuhan. Then it start spreading all over the world due to the
social gatherings. It ultimately take thousands of people towards
death. Then after its huge destruction a final step of lockdown
is taken up by the government of each country. The animal-to-
human transmission was presumed as the main mechanism. It
was concluded that the virus could also be transmitted from
human-to-human, and symptomatic people are the most frequent
source of COVID-19 spread. The virus-host interaction and the
evolution of the epidemic, with specific reference to the times
when the epidemic will reach its peak.
Introduction:
There is scanty knowledge on the actual pandemic potential of
this new SARS-like virus. It might be speculated that SARS-
CoV-2 epidemic is grossly underdiagnosed and that the
infection is silently spreading across the globe. There are no

2. comparable analogies to corona virus. This virus is not like any
of the other epidemiological threats that have emerged in recent
decades; it is less fatal but much more contagious.
Distribution of cases by the following:
· Time: The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) was first reported on December 31, 2019.
· Place: the epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) in a remote region of China, far from Wuhan, we
analyzed the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Gansu Province
Explanation of the research topic (corona virus):
As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is
rapidly expanding in China and beyond, with the potential to
become a world-wide pandemic, real-time analyses of
epidemiological data are needed to increase situational
awareness and inform interventions. The current most likely
hypothesis is that an intermediary host animal has played a
role in the transmission. Identifying the animal source of the
2019-nCoV would help to ensure that there will be no further
future similar outbreaks with the same virus and will also help
understanding the initial spread of the disease.
Numerator (cases of corona virus):
Deaths divided the total of deaths plus recoveries. In early days
because of the exponential increase new cases significantly
outpace recoveries. You’re dividing by new cases but the
numerator hasn’t had a chance to catch up to the death toll yet
to be associated with those cases. If you look at COVID 19 on
Feb 17, you get the 2% number only if dividing by total cases.
If you look vs recovered cases, it’s 13%.
The WHO’s fatality percentage, announced March 17, 2020, is
based simply on the number of deaths globally (the numerator)
and the number of confirmed cases of covid-19 (the
denominator). As of March 20, 2020 the WHO had counted
3,400 deaths among 100,000 cases.
Clinical features of COVID-19:
The virus is now known as the severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is

3. called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Serological and cultural aspects of COVID-19:
Serology plays an important role in confirming clinically
suspected cases of SARS. The culprit, SARS coronavirus
(SARS-CoV), was detected in patient specimens by traditional
cell culture using an unusual cell line for respiratory viruses.
The coronavirus genus, of which SARS-CoV is a member,
consists of large enveloped positive-stranded RNA viruses with
a typical crown-like morphology that cause respiratory and
enteric disease in humans and other animals, including
mammals and birds.
The population at risk of developing disease (COVID-19):
The denominator in this phase contains many cases who have
recently become ill and have not spent a sufficient number of
days ill for them to die of COVID-19.
Typically underestimates the risk of death among confirmed
cases though it may also possibly overestimate it if only a small
number of cases and deaths are observed.
Observed number of cases clearly exceeds the expected number:
As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected
with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9
million people) may require hospitalization. According to a
survey an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed
vital because they work “in essential services and critical
infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-
long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff
and 1.5 million in social care.
Calculation of the attack rates:
Total cases: 255,904
Deaths: 10,495
Recovered: 89,918
The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 183 countries and
territories around the world.
Findings from investigation of the outbreak:
WHO is reassured of the quality of the ongoing investigations
and the response measures implemented all over the world. The

4. evidence is highly suggestive that the outbreak is associated
with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan. The market
was closed on 1 January 2020. According to the preliminary
epidemiological investigation, most cases worked at or were
handlers and frequent visitors to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale
Market. The government reports that there is no clear evidence
that the virus passes easily from person to person.
Written report of the investigation and the findings of COVID-
19:
We reviewed clinical charts, nursing records, laboratory
findings, and chest x-rays for all patients with laboratory-
confirmed 2019-nCoV infection who were reported by the local
health authority. The admission data of these patients was from
Dec 16, 2019, to Jan 2, 2020. Epidemiological, clinical,
laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and
outcomes data were obtained with standardized data collection
forms (modified case record form for severe acute respiratory
infection clinical characterization shared by WHO and the
International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection
Consortium) from electronic medical records.
By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients were identified as
laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan. 20 [49%])
of the 2019-nCoV-infected patients were aged 25–49 years, and
14 (34%) were aged 50–64 years (figure 1A). The median age of
the patients was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0; table 1). In our
cohort of the first 41 patients as of Jan 2, no children or
adolescents were infected. Of the 41 patients, 13 (32%) were
admitted to the ICU because they required high-flow nasal
cannula or higher-level oxygen support measures to correct
hypoxaemia. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%]);
less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including
diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and
cardiovascular disease (six [15%]).
IMPACTS OF COVID-19 FROM DIFFERENT POINT OF

5. VIEWS
As we all know, world is facing the pandemic which puts the
whole world into the crises. Covid19 has spread throughout the
world and becomes a greater threat to the economy of people
more than their health. Corona virus actually threatens the
financial infection to the world’s economy and led it to the
great loss. Even the most developed countries are also facing
the economic crises and financial issues. As it is disease which
spread from person to person communication so for the control
of this viral spread, the developed developing or under
developed countries announce the complete lockdown. This
lockdown has become the reason for the decrease in market
value. The global economy was expected to be grown to 1.2%
this year but due to this pandemic it decreases drastically. All
the trades are closed and this leads to the great crises and
shortage of the resources. As the banks are also facing these
crises just like the whole world, so they can get back their
financial state back. The banks are getting empty as the most of
the financing is spending on the purchasing of medical
equipment and also for meeting the needs of people. When this
covid-19 will be over, it will take a long time to settle the
financial crises back to their position. Educational institutes are
also closed because of this pandemic which is also causing the
greater loss to the education. If we link the social aspect to
finance in this era of crises we get to know that how drastically
every country is facing loss due to no trading and lockdown.
Ethically, in most of the countries, especially in Italy due to
high rate of deaths they saved the ventilators for the young ones
and removed from the elderly people and this kind of behavior
is wrong ethically.
Comment on colleague’s opinion:
The economy of the whole world is highly affected by the
pandemic of corona virus (covid-19). Everyone is taking the
preventive measures and it has become the reason of financial
crises throughout the world. Even the most developed countries
or states are facing economic issues which led them in greater

6. debts.
Emergency Management cycle applies to COVID-19:
Recommend control measures:
1. Control of current outbreak:
This is the first edition of guidance on infection prevention and
control (IPC) strategies for use when infection with a novel
coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is suspected. It has been adapted from
WHO’s Infection prevention and control during health care for
probable or confirmed cases of Middle East respiratory
syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, based on current
knowledge of the situation in China and other countries where
cases were identified and experiences with severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV and MERS-CoV.
• Use mask
• Use sanitizers
• Do not go to the gatherings
• Wash hands at-least for 20 seconds.
2. Prevention of future similar outbreaks:
Such outbreaks like Ebola, the scheme to make zero patient in
the current situation of corona and there are different researches
of the well-known researchers, but the term “patient zero”
comes loaded with meaning and stigma. Many health experts are
against identifying the first documented case of an outbreak, for
fear that it might lead to disinformation about the disease or
even victimization of the person.
Phases of Emergency management cycle:
1) Mitigation:
It is the process through which different kind of activities can
be deducted for the betterment or to be safe from any disease or
the current pandemic COVID-19. This phase of emergency
applies to COVID-19 in the sense like there is no social
gatherings and everyone is promoting social-distancing.
2) Preparation:
Preparation is the phase in which the emergency situation or the
disaster is being solved with the utilization of the resources and

7. to prepare the emergency cabins in the country with every
individual disaster kit to protect everyone from the pandemic.
3) Response:
Response is the third phase in which a response is created
against the disaster and to create such kind of events through
which the new occurring problems to be solved.
4) Recovery:
To plan an emergency cycle one must plan about the last but the
most important phase of the recovery. There should be plans to
protect everyone from the upcoming disasters.
Conclusion:
COVID-19 is an outbreak first witnessed in city of China,
Wuhan. It is an animal to animal virus which is modified and
now attacking the human. It is a respiratory disorder. Its
symptoms include, flu, cough, high fever, joint pains and
irritation in the throat. The main precautions taken by this
SARS-COVID is the social distancing because it is spread with
the respiratory droplets, means if anyone is sneezing coughing
or talking and the saliva is touched by the healthy one can enter
to its body. This pandemic depends upon the immune system. If
a person have a healthy immune system plus having corona
virus symptoms have high rate of recovery or high chances of
recovery, just by isolating themselves. Then there is a
discussion about the pandemic death rate and all the statistical
calculations. The impact of COVID-19 on different fields of our
lives. The lockdown can make economic crises and everyone in
the world is going through the same type of crises now. The
high ratio of deaths are in the china and then in Italy. Today,
there is a good ratio of people recovering from this pandemic if
they are applying the instruction by WHO, otherwise the people
who are not taking any precautionary measures are suffering
from this respiratory disorder. The end result of this disorder is
that it damages the lung and ultimately with the difficulty in
breathing causes the death.
References:

8. Drosten, C. et al. Identification of a novel coronavirus in
patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N. Engl. J.
Med. 348, 1967–1976 (2003)
Emergency Management Cycle. (n.d.). Retrieved from
https://www.hampton.gov/655/Emergency-Management-Cycle
Hu, B. et al. Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related
coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS
coronavirus. PLoS Pathog. 13, e1006698 (2017).
Roser, M., Ritchie, H., & Ortiz-Ospina, E. (2020, March 4).
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research.
Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus