Presented at the Independent Science and Partnership Council of the CGIAR’s Science Forum, Beijing, 17-19 October 2011

1. How can sustainability science
achieve impact for wicked problems
such as climate change?
Bruce Campbell and Sonja Vermeulen
CGIAR Research Program on Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS), CCAFS Coordinating Unit,
University of Copenhagen, Denmark

2. Outline of the talk
• What are wicked problems? The example of
agriculture under climate change
• What do we know about tackling wicked
problems?
• How can these principles and tools be applied
to management of science in the CGIAR?

3. complicated
complex
simple

4. The modern dilemma
• Growing recognition that
– Natural resource systems and social systems are
complex, unpredictable and highly dynamic
– Different people and groups have different values,
viewpoints and priorities that are equally valid
• Yet we continue to search for standard
solutions that achieve steady states

5. Wicked problems: where society cannot agree
on either the problem definition or the solution

6. How is climate change a
“wicked problem”?
controversy
system complexity
institutional complexity

7. Can wicked problems be tamed?

8. What to focus on when dealing
with wicked problems
• Teams
• Politics
• Behaviors

9. Teams for wicked problems
• Work on all parts
of the problem
• Diverse approaches
& skills
• Iterative debate
• Enough common
ground for
progress

10. Competition
Authority
Cooperation
Politics of
wicked
problems:
where the
power lies

11. Behavior change for wicked problems

12. So if the CGIAR is
going to help
solve wicked
problems,
what needs to
be done more?
Sunday morning ideas
Monday morning action

13. Principles for wicked problem science
• ‘Good enough is best’ principle
• ‘Consensus beats reality’ principle
• ‘Trust beats certainty’ principle
• ‘The three-thirds’ principle
• ‘No neutral gear’ principle
Adapted from Fullana et al, 2011

14. 1. ‘Good enough is best’ principle
•Don’t close off possibilities too early
•Learn by doing: apply solutions with
stakeholders when they still have lots
of problems

15. Example: ICRISAT’s CODEWA project
CC impacts cannot be predicted in a
way relevant to smallholders
Best strategy = promote risk evasion
strategies based on crop varieties
Top-down climate proofing of varieties
Bottom-up selection & diversification

16. Example: ICRISAT’s CODEWA project
1st year
2nd year
3rd year
Researcher influence
on experiments
none
1 variety
complete training
Seed selection and multiplication
by farmers

17. 2. ‘Consensus beats reality’ principle
• Don’t build technologies and toolkits
in isolation
• Use impact pathways, with realistic
theories of change and partnerships,
as “living documents” for the entire
team

18. Example: CIFOR’s success with REDD
Incentive
scheme for
forest carbon
Incentive
scheme for
forest carbon
Collaborative
Part’ship on Forests
Collaborative
Part’ship on Forests
Scientific
evidence
Scientific
evidence
High citation
journal paper
High citation
journal paper Forest DayForest Day
Media packs,
UNFCCC guides
Media packs,
UNFCCC guidesClear & shared
messages
Clear & shared
messages
Simply REDD
Moving Ahead with REDD
Simply REDD
Moving Ahead with REDD

19. 3. ‘Three thirds’ principle
• Radically rethink allocation of
resources between research and
stakeholder engagement
• Invest wisely in the right partnerships
based on shared objectives and
complementary skill sets

20. Example: Meridian report

21. 4. ‘No neutral gear’ principle
• Drop the language of “win-win-win”
and be frank about trade-offs,
winners and losers
• Get serious about social diversity and
power

22. Example: Commission on Sustainable
Agriculture and Climate Change
Reduce losses and waste in the food system by 50%
safety / waste
trade-off
safety / waste
trade-off
different access for
different farmers
different access for
different farmers

23. Final reflection: is the rôle of science in a
wicked world to drive or to catalyze
development?

24. May the force be with you

25. Recommended reading
Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning
http://www.metu.edu.tr/~baykan/arch467/Rittel+Webber+Dilemm
as.pdf
Tackling Wicked Problems
www.apsc.gov.au/publications07/wickedproblems.pdf