Presented by Michael Dingkuhn at the CCAFS Workshop on Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World, ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 6-8 December 2011.

1. Modeling Approach
Michael Dingkuhn
Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World Workshop
ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
6-8 December 2011

2. Modeling Approach
Scenario source selection
– Quality check: simulations with hindcasts vs historical climate
– Present, 2030 pessimistic, 2030 optimistic?
=> Establishment of operational scenario database
Global study
– Simple model (GLAM)
– Spatialized gridded approach
– No detail of varietal differences
=> Global mapping of crop response to CC
Zoom-ins: virtual experiments
– GxExM model (SAMARA, RIDEV, CROPGRO…)
– Model calibration for key varietal types
– Identification of trait (crop parameter) ranges
– Zooming in on TPEs for each crop (Total of 10-12?)
– Sensitivity analyses: trait variation vs environment
Ideotype composition for adapted crops

3. Need 3 types of crop models
Consensus tools to translate environment scenarios
– Accurate impact prediction to guide policy
– Seasonal forecasting, robust standards for yield insurance
– Set rational long-term priorities in research
GxExM models to assist in technology generation
– TPE characterization
– Ideotype concepts for breeding strategies
– Extrapolation of technologies
Heuristic model application in phenotyping
– Intelligent phenotyping: Extract G from GxExMxN(oise)
– Extract « hidden traits » from simple plant observations
– Genotypic reaction norms (behavioural traits)

4. Crop Type RIDEV ORYZA EcoMeristem SAMARA
Rice Flooded-irrigated
Rainfed-lowland
Crop Sorghum
Upland
Grain
model Feature
Bio-EtOH (FF)
Trait
skills Phenology Photoperiodism
Thermal response
Microclimate resp.
Architecture Phyllochron
Organ size & Nb
Green = available Tillering
Orange = coming Yield GY
GYC
Stem sugar
Biomass
Water stresses Drought
Water logging
Submergence
Thermal stresses Cold sterility
Heat sterility
Avoidance: TC
Avoidance: TOF
Salinity Salt tolerance
CO2 response TE, Amax
Canopy heating
Resource use WUE
NUE
RUE

5. Environmental challenges (1) Irrigated rice cropping
calendars in the Sahel
Migration of agro-climatic zones Saint-Louis
• Latitudinal & altitudinal migration
• Cropping calendars, crop phenology
– Change in comparative advantage of Rosso
crop/system
– Change in comparative advantage of
different land uses
– Change in pressure on agro-ecologies and Matam
natural resource base
=> Trust in adaptation capacity of markets
and stake holders
=> Anticipate, inform, assist Tillaberi
Let policies ease the transition
Sorghum varietal
Zoning for W Africa

6. 15
High yielding,
dwarf, early,
sweet type
2 Plant Height 2.0 m LAI
Virtual varieties (sorghum):
10
Impact of trait modification
Tillers
1 Ic 5
GY
Sugars
7 2 traits changed:
plant height &
0 06 photoperiodism
20
90d increased
5 (4.8 m, + 40 d)
15
Effect of tallness + lateness 4
• Biomass + 44% 3 10
• Grain yield – 45%
• more tillers, more mortality 2
• LAI 3 => 7
5
• Sugar reserves much smaller 1
0 0
130d

7. SAMARA: Short phyllochron improves vigor but not GY 50
60
50 70
Culms/hill
60
70
GY
70
60
50 50
60
LAI 70
S PI F M
Internode
SAHEL108 in WS 2010 at AfricaRice, NSC
Senegal (source limited situation) 70
Phyllochron 50 °Cd: fast-DR
Phyllochron 60 °Cd: ‘normal’ 60
Phyllochron 70 °Cd: slow-DR 50

8. Merci