CCAFS Science Meeting presentation by Lisa Goddard - "Climate Variability and Change Information for Building Resilience."

1. ???
Climate Variability
and Change Information
1. Climate models
Projections 21st century
for Building Resilience
Large scale
2. Regionalization
3. Localized Distributions
Lisa Goddard
International Research Institute for Climate & Society
The Earth Institute, Columbia University
goddard@iri.columbia.edu
Acknowledgements: Walter Baethgen, Arthur Greene
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 1

2. Dealing with
Climate Variability
and Change
???
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 2

3. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Dealing with
Climate Variability
and Change
???
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 3

4. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Global Climate Change Projections
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis for Climate Change
Sept. 8, 2008 EESC W4400x
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html

5. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Climate Variability & Change Globally
Annual Mean Temperature
Temperature
65% Most of the variability in the
globally-averaged temperature
is contained in the slowly
varying “climate change”
component.
13%
(Greene, Goddard & Cousin, EOS, 2010)
21%
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 5

6. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Climate Variability & Change Locally
e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJF
Temperature Precipitation
~0% 21%
17% 8%
80% 69%
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 6

7. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Climate Variability & Change Locally
e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJF
Temperature Precipitation
~0% 21%
17% 8%
80% 69%
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 7

8. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Precipitation Trends: of total variance
20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 8

9. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Precipitation Decadal Variability: of variance
20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 9

10. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Precipitation Decadal Variability: % of variance DECOMPOSITION
20th Century Gridded Observations – Jul-Aug-Sep Seasonal Means
12%
40%
46%
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 10

11. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
(Greene, et al. 2012)
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 11

12. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Decadal Variability
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 12

13. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Total Variability of crop/livestock production
with current climate & current technology
(a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn
or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)
How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate
technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?
How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate
institutional arrangements, policies?
How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?
How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate
information at seasonal, longer-term scales?
There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will
not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools
(e.g., financial such as insurance)
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 13

14. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Total Variability of crop/livestock production
with current climate & current technology
(a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn
or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)
How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate
technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?
How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate
institutional arrangements, policies?
How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?
How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate
information at seasonal, longer-term scales?
There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will
not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools
(e.g., financial such as insurance)
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 14

15. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Total Variability of crop/livestock production
with current climate & current technology
(e.g. a farmer can get 5 to 8 tons/ha of corn
or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)
How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate
technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?
How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate
institutional arrangements, policies?
How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?
How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate
information at seasonal, longer-term scales?
There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will
not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools
(e.g., financial such as insurance)
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 15

16. Take Away Points
1 – Consider climate at all timescales
… for establishing resilience, for informing management,
and for planning
2 – Test current systems/options to current climate risk
3 – Strive for “informed uncertainty”
(won’t get that straight from models)
4 – Incorporate mechanisms to deal with residual risk
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 16

17. 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 17

18. Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Precipitation Trends: of variance
20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 18

19. Temperature Trends: Percent of total variance
20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 19