From 6 to 8 December, CCAFS theme 1 organized a workshop staged on the Addis Ababa campus of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). The workshop titled 'Developing climate-smart crops for 2030 world' involved over 40 participants from 16 countries, broadly divided along either side of the breeding / modeling continuum.
1. Modeling Approach
Scenario source selection
â Quality check: simulations with hindcasts vs historical climate
â Present, 2030 pessimistic, 2030 optimistic?
=> Establishment of operational scenario database
Global study
â Simple model (GLAM)
â Spatialized gridded approach
â No detail of varietal differences
=> Global mapping of crop response to CC
Zoom-ins: virtual experiments
â GxExM model (SAMARA, RIDEV, CROPGROâŠ)
â Model calibration for key varietal types
â Identification of trait (crop parameter) ranges
â Zooming in on TPEs for each crop (Total of 10-12?)
â Sensitivity analyses: trait variation vs environment
Ideotype composition for adapted crops
2. Need 3 types of crop models
Consensus tools to translate environment scenarios
â Accurate impact prediction to guide policy
â Seasonal forecasting, robust standards for yield insurance
â Set rational long-term priorities in research
GxExM models to assist in technology generation
â TPE characterization
â Ideotype concepts for breeding strategies
â Extrapolation of technologies
Heuristic model application in phenotyping
â Intelligent phenotyping: Extract G from GxExMxN(oise)
â Extract « hidden traits » from simple plant observations
â Genotypic reaction norms (behavioural traits)
3. Crop Type RIDEV ORYZA EcoMeristem SAMARA
Rice Flooded-irrigated
Rainfed-lowland
Crop Sorghum
Upland
Grain
model Feature
Bio-EtOH (FF)
Trait
skills Phenology Photoperiodism
Thermal response
Microclimate resp.
Architecture Phyllochron
Organ size & Nb
Green = available Tillering
Orange = coming Yield GY
GYC
Stem sugar
Biomass
Water stresses Drought
Water logging
Submergence
Thermal stresses Cold sterility
Heat sterility
Avoidance: TC
Avoidance: TOF
Salinity Salt tolerance
CO2 response TE, Amax
Canopy heating
Resource use WUE
NUE
RUE
4. Environmental challenges (1) Irrigated rice cropping
calendars in the Sahel
Migration of agro-climatic zones Saint-Louis
âą Latitudinal & altitudinal migration
âą Cropping calendars, crop phenology
â Change in comparative advantage of Rosso
crop/system
â Change in comparative advantage of
different land uses
â Change in pressure on agro-ecologies and Matam
natural resource base
=> Trust in adaptation capacity of markets
and stake holders
=> Anticipate, inform, assist Tillaberi
Let policies ease the transition
Sorghum varietal
Zoning for W Africa
5. 15
High yielding,
dwarf, early,
sweet type
2 Plant Height 2.0 m LAI
Virtual varieties (sorghum):
10
Impact of trait modification
Tillers
1 Ic 5
GY
Sugars
7 2 traits changed:
plant height &
0 06 photoperiodism
20
90d increased
5 (4.8 m, + 40 d)
15
Effect of tallness + lateness 4
âą Biomass + 44% 3 10
âą Grain yield â 45%
âą more tillers, more mortality 2
âą LAI 3 => 7
5
âą Sugar reserves much smaller 1
0 0
130d
6. SAMARA: Short phyllochron improves vigor but not GY 50
60
50 70
Culms/hill
60
70
GY
70
60
50 50
60
LAI 70
S PI F M
Internode
SAHEL108 in WS 2010 at AfricaRice, NSC
Senegal (source limited situation) 70
Phyllochron 50 °Cd: fast-DR
Phyllochron 60 °Cd: ânormalâ 60
Phyllochron 70 °Cd: slow-DR 50