Climate-smart food systems Presentation by Sonja Vermeulen at the 3rd Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Montpellier. Read more: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/3rd-global-science-conference-%E2%80%9Cclimate-smart-agriculture-2015%E2%80%9D#.VRurLUesXX4

1. Climate-­‐smart
food
systems
Sonja
Vermeulen
John
R.
Porter
and
Eskild
Bennetzen
Department
of
Plant
and
Environmental
Sciences
University
of
Copenhagen
Montpellier
March
16-­‐18,
2015

2. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN
INPUTS
FARMING & FISHERIES
ECOSYSTEMS
JOBS
CLIMATE
ENERGY
MARKETS & TRADE
DEVELOPMENT
WATER
EDUCATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY
GOVERNANCE
NUTRITION & HEALTH
CIVIL SECURITY
CULTURE
SCIENCE &
TECHNOLOGY
DEMOGRAPHY
FINANCE
SERVICES
GENDER

3. 1
No need for Climate-Smart Food Systems!
Agriculture alone can achieve
all three CSA goals at global level.

4. West et al 2014 Science
Closing yield gaps by 50% will feed ~850 million people.
Half of these potential gains are concentrated in 5% of the harvested area.
Global
producNvity
&
food
security

5. Global
adaptaNon
Challinor et al 2014 Nature Climate Change
Meta-analysis of model results finds that, globally, adaptations (e.g. different cultivars,
agronomy) compensate for crop yield losses due to changes in climatic means.

6. Global
food
system
emissions
FerNlizer
Animal
feed
PesNcides
AGRICULTURE
Food
processing
Packaging
&
transport
RefrigeraNon
Retail
Catering
and
home
food
Landfill
Vermeulen et al 2012 Ann Rev Env Res

7. Global
trends
in
ag
emissions
Bennetzen, Smith and Porter, forthcoming

8. 2
Really so simple?
Or does change in agriculture need
change in food systems?

9. Trade
for
food
security
&
adaptaNon?
South
Sudan
Libya
Prevalence of undernourishment in the population (percent) in 2012-14
It costs as little
as US 25 cents a day
to feed a hungry child
and change her life
forever.
About 805 million
people, or 1 in 9 of the
world’s population,
go to bed hungry
each night.
We can achieve
Zero Hunger in our
lifetimes. In the world
today, we have the
knowledge, tools and
policies to feed
everyone.
***
***
State of Palestine
The map shows the prevalence of undernourishment in the population of developing countries as of 2012-14. The indicator measures
the probability that a randomly selected individual in the population is consuming an amount of dietary energy, which is insufficient to
cover her/his requirement for an active and healthy life.
Source: FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2014. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2014. Strengthening the enabling environment for
Brunei
Darussalam
Comoros
Seychelles
Hunger Map 2014
Yield
gap
hotspots
WFP
e.g. Liu et al Global Environmental Change 2014

10. Trade-­‐offs:
trade
versus
miNgaNon
&
other
environmental
factors
deforestation nitrogen transfers
Lassaletta et al 2014 Biogeochemistry
Schmitz et al 2012 GEC
Also see Lambin & Meyfroidt 2011

11. Achieving
global
emissions
reducNons?
Bennetzen, Smith and Porter, forthcoming

12. Crop Livestock
Trade-­‐offs:
intensificaNon
versus
energy,
ferNlizer
&
food
demand
Bennetzen, Smith and Porter, forthcoming

13. ReducNons
require
demand
restraint
(over-­‐consumpNon,
diets,
waste)
Tilman & Clark 2014 Nature
Also see Bajželj et al 2014
Nutritional quality of diets around the world
Imamura et al 2015 Lancet
BAU
MEDI
FISH
VEG

14. Trade-­‐offs:
sustainability
versus
nutriNon
&
food
prices
Photo: Vivek Prakash
If
prices
go
up
10%,
consump:on
goes
down:
High
income
country
Low
income
country
Cereals
4
%
6
%
Meat
6
%
8
%
In
all
cases
poor
households
are
worst
affected.
Green et al 2013 BMJ

15. 3
Transformation is possible.
Food systems are changing
incredibly fast.
Even ahead of “climate-smart” actions,
there are multiple entry points
for Climate-Smart Food Systems.

16. Consumers’
food
preferences
change
rapidly
–
and
drive
the
whole
system.
e.g. Trends in meat consumption in USA
data from USDA

17. TransformaNon
of
value
chains
accelerates
waste
reducNon.
Photo: MintPhoto: Reuters
data from Parfitt et al 2010 and Reardon et al 2012
2002
15%
e.g. Post-farmgate, pre-consumer rice waste in China
1997
23%
2012
2%

18. Public
health
concerns
on
obesity
provide
a
policy
headstart
for
a
shic
to
sustainable
diets.