Mohammed Asaduzzaman, Mitigation in Bangladesh's National Climate Change Action Plan (presentation from Mitigation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

1. Low Carbon Development in
Bangladesh:
Agriculture & BCCSAP 2009
M. Asaduzzaman
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies
Dhaka
Presented at Climate Change Adaptation and
Mitigation in Agriculture Science Workshop
Playa del Carmen, Mexico
December 1, 2010

2. Trend in Rice Output by Season
Over time boro, Aus Aman Boro Rice
dry period 35
irrigated rice has 30
gained 25
prominence in
Million mt
20
area & output–
15
rainfed aus has
10
lost out. Aman,
5
part rainfed-part
irrigated, area & 0
19
19 5
19 7
19 9
19 1
19 3
19 5
19 7
20 9
20 1
20 3
20 5
20 7
output remain
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
/8
/8
/8
/9
/9
/9
/9
/9
/0
/0
/0
/0
/09
largely static

3. Despite Growth Seasonal Rice
Output Remains Volatile
Total-p Aman-p Boro-p
40
Seasonal rice
Percent change year on year
30
outputs are 20
volatile - 10
aman output 0
growth may -10
often be -20
negative
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09

4. Mechanisation and ownership of
equipments in agriculture
Marginal Small Medium Large
100%
80%
Percent farms
60%
40%
20%
0%
Tractors PT DTW STW LLP

5. Irrigation trends by mode
DTW STW LLP Manual Traditional Major Canal Total
Mainly mechanised
6000
ground water
irrigation helped 5000
dry period
cultivation – diesel
4000
Area (k ha)
operated shallow 3000
tube wells are the
2000
mainstay of the
system. Surface 1000
irrigation with low
0
lift pumps are more
19 91
19 92
19 93
19 94
19 95
19 96
19 97
19 98
19 99
20 00
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
/07
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
site-specific
19

6. Fuel choice by Mode of irrigation
Diesel Electric
5000
4000
3000
Th ha
2000
1000
0
DTW STW LLP Total

7. Direct Energy Use in Rice
Production
• Lifting water for irrigation and mechanised tillage are
main activities using energy – diesel and electricity
in case of former and diesel in the second case
• Harvesting is manual – husking is manual,
mechanised and also through small and large rice
mills which uses biomass, electricty and diesel for
boilers and motors
• Long distance transport with motorised means is
common for marketing
• Apart from production, knowledge of energy use in
other cases is limited – yet even here energy use
may be inefficient as is the case in say irrigation

8. Indirect Use of Energy in Crop
Production
Urea is the main Urea TSP SSP DAP MOP Total
fertiliser in use – 4000
mainly from 3500
domestic 3000
production using 2500
Th mt
natural gas. 2000
Others are 1500
mainly imported. 1000
Sales of urea 500
show the most 0
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
prominent
upward trend

9. Irrigation efficiency of Diesel-
operated STW (ha/machine)
Inefficiency in
12
irrigation may be
quite widespread 10
as the graph 8
indicates
6
although part may
be explained by 4
soil quality and 2
other such factors 0

10. Policy Environment
• Spread of irrigation, fertiliser use and
mechanised tillage all facilitated over time by
policies to encourage their use
• Inputs subsidy – fertiliser, diesel and
electricity for irrigation
• Previously diesel prices were not subsidised
but fixed by Government resulting in lower
prices relative to rice due to rising rice prices
and thus encouraging its increasing use - for
electricity the prices were subsidised and
nominally fixed lowering its relative price
over time as next two slides show
• On the other hand, substantial reduction in
public expenditure on research, extension
and marketing in recent past as shown later

11. Price movement of Diesel
45 180
40 160
35 140
Index Jan 2002 = 100
30 120
25 100
Taka
20 80
15 60
10 40
5 20
0 0
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Wholesale Coarse Rice (Tk/kg)
Diesel (Tk/liter)
Diesel / Wholesale Rice (Jan 2002=100)

12. Movement in electricity prices
Electricty price Rice price Index
25 140
120
20
100
Index (2002=100)
15 80
Price
10 60
40
5
20
0 0
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY2007
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

13. Investment Trends in R&D,
Extension and Marketing
ALL NOMINAL ALL REAL DAM-N DAM-R DAE-N DAE-R
3000 7000
2500 6000
5000
2000
Million Taka
Mn Taka
4000
1500
3000
1000
2000
500
1000
0
0
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008-
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
-0 0
-0 1
-0 2
-0 3
-0 4
-0 5
-0 6
-0 7
-0 8
-0 9
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

14. Climate Change and Bangladesh
• Impact of climate change in
general and on agriculture, role of
agriculture in GHG emission, and
response of Bangladesh to these
issues have to be seen against
these backdrops

15. Losses in Agricultural GDP due to
Climatic Factors Now and in Future
Cost of present climate
variability - 7.4% output/yr
mainly due to lower boro
output. SW coast to be
worst affected.
Future CC lowers output
further by nearly 4%/yr.
GDP loss - US$ 26 bn for
ag & US$ 121 for national
over 2005-50 due present
variability. CC to add more
losses of US$7.7 and 26 bn.

16. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy
and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009
• A consequence of 1/CP13
• BAP
• 4 inviolate principles -
– Food security
– Water security
– Energy security
– Livelihood (incl health) security
• Six pillars, 34 programme areas
• One pillar is low carbon development
• Should be read along with food security
theme and Research and Knowledge
Management themes

18. Research Principles
• From food security view point emphasis on
development and popularisation of various stress-
tolerant varieties
• From low carbon view point, lowering emission in
agriculture
• From livelihood view point, stress on protection of
employment, income and livelihood particularly of
poor, women and those in ecologically fragile areas
• From water security view point, water use must be
absolute minimum without waste
• From energy security view point, minimum energy
needs must be fulfilled
• Each can be done separately; but not a desirable
solution
• Challenge is to satisfy each condition

19. Challenges
• Mitigation in agriculture without adaptation will
threaten food security
• Adaptation without mitigation will raise cost
of production and food will be costlier
• Mitigation & adaptation get intertwined and
must be addressed in this situation
simultaneously
• Both require that water use be economized
through choice of crops, new agronomic
practices, development of drought-tolerant or
escaping varieties, etc so that while energy
use is lowered food production does not fall

20. Immediate Research Needs
• Development of stress tolerant varieties-some
such as shorter duration, drought tolerance,
heat tolerance to lower energy needs and GHG
emission
• Development of CC-smart cropping systems
• Extension and diffusion issues
• Reexamination of subsidy issues to lower
wasteful water, energy use
• Stabilise rainfed rice output so that irrigated rice
dependence for food security lessened &
energy needs and emission lowered
• Lowering irrigation water needs
• Lowering of indirect energy needs

21. Capacity-building needs
• Capacity and technology needs assessment
to be done
• Capacity of National Agricultural research
System to be a priority, particularly for
research with complex and intertwined goals
• Development and transfer of cost-effective
technology
• And of course financing the whole research
and related activities
• Given the slow pace of CC negotiations, a
new or parallel paradigm of global
cooperation needs to be established

22. THANK YOU