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Managing Future Agricultural Production in a Variable and Changing Climate   Steven Crimp, Alison Laing, Bronya Alexander, Phil Bowden, Kerry Bridle, Peter Brown, Howard Cox, Peter deVoil, Jan Edwards, Alex Gartmann, Peter Hayman, Mark Howden, Philip Kokic, Shaun Lisson, Neil McLeod, Jim Meckif, Barry Mudge, Uday Nidumolu, David Parsons, Brendan Power, Michael Robertson, Daniel Rodriguez, Janet Walker, Michael Wurst  17 November 2009
Converting analysis into action Vulnerability =  fn(  Impacts  ,  Adaptation ) Exposure & sensitivity  adaptation options; adaptive capacity & resilience
Effective adaptation will depend on which learning style is appropriate ,[object Object],Low climatic variability High variability Climate trend and increasing variability
Participatory engagement key part of research  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Project Design  Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies
Project partners and activity locations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Project Design  Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies  Group workshops and individual interviews
Farm profit Economic risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Workshops and farmer interviews Alternative farming systems Less risk More profit More of both
Workshops and farmer interviews
Project Design  Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies  Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation
Exploring adaptation options: modelling  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Observed  Simulated ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Modelling – benchmarking and validation
50% chance of exceeding 2.9 ta Modelling – benchmarking and validation  Time Series  Probabilities  Mean/Median Yields as well as distributions and extremes
Decile 3-4 Modelling – benchmarking and validation
Project Design  Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies  Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation Adaption options simulated and evaluated in terms of yield and gross margins Comparisons across regions
Testing adaptation options – individual crops and single scenarios  Baseline No Change Density Fallow Residue Variety 45%   28%   12%   Baseline No Change Density Fallow Residue Variety NSW Farm Victorian  Farm 52%   18%
Testing adaptation options – individual crops/multiple scenarios
Testing adaptation options – gross margins
Alternative scenarios for CC scenarios - Roma Testing adaptation options – whole farm profitability
Project Design  Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies  Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation Adaption options simulated and evaluated in terms of yield and gross margins Comparisons across regions Group workshops and individual interviews  Project evaluation
Conclusions  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you Steven Crimp Phone:  +61 2 6242 1649  or  +61 428482940 Email:  Steven.Crimp@csiro.au  Web:  www.csiro.au

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Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp

  • 1. Managing Future Agricultural Production in a Variable and Changing Climate Steven Crimp, Alison Laing, Bronya Alexander, Phil Bowden, Kerry Bridle, Peter Brown, Howard Cox, Peter deVoil, Jan Edwards, Alex Gartmann, Peter Hayman, Mark Howden, Philip Kokic, Shaun Lisson, Neil McLeod, Jim Meckif, Barry Mudge, Uday Nidumolu, David Parsons, Brendan Power, Michael Robertson, Daniel Rodriguez, Janet Walker, Michael Wurst 17 November 2009
  • 2. Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts , Adaptation ) Exposure & sensitivity adaptation options; adaptive capacity & resilience
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies
  • 6.
  • 7. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews
  • 8.
  • 9. Workshops and farmer interviews
  • 10. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. 50% chance of exceeding 2.9 ta Modelling – benchmarking and validation Time Series Probabilities Mean/Median Yields as well as distributions and extremes
  • 14. Decile 3-4 Modelling – benchmarking and validation
  • 15. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation Adaption options simulated and evaluated in terms of yield and gross margins Comparisons across regions
  • 16. Testing adaptation options – individual crops and single scenarios Baseline No Change Density Fallow Residue Variety 45% 28% 12% Baseline No Change Density Fallow Residue Variety NSW Farm Victorian Farm 52% 18%
  • 17. Testing adaptation options – individual crops/multiple scenarios
  • 18. Testing adaptation options – gross margins
  • 19. Alternative scenarios for CC scenarios - Roma Testing adaptation options – whole farm profitability
  • 20. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation Adaption options simulated and evaluated in terms of yield and gross margins Comparisons across regions Group workshops and individual interviews Project evaluation
  • 21.
  • 22. Thank you Steven Crimp Phone: +61 2 6242 1649 or +61 428482940 Email: Steven.Crimp@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Generated from a series of farmer workshops in WA, VIC and QLD