The document discusses water scarcity issues facing the Middle East and North Africa region, noting that the region has only 4.5% of the world's population but produces half of the world's oil, yet receives only 2% of the world's rainfall. Rapid population growth is exacerbating water shortages in the region, as water withdrawals have tripled in the last 50 years and per capita water availability is projected to fall by half by 2050 under the pressures of climate change. This growing water crisis poses major challenges for national and regional food security, economic development, and political stability.

1. “The absence or shortage of drinking
water has killed ten times more people
than all armed conflicts.”
Opening speech, World Water Forum, Mexico, 2006

2. Water and Geopolitics in the
MENA Region
Dr Peter Caddick-Adams, TD, PhD, FRHistS

4. MENA – an elastic concept
CONCEPT
Iran, Turkey, Sudan?
- Sahal region? Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti?

5. C al-Majalla, a leading
Arabic language weekly
news magazine.
Main headline reads:
The Waters of the
Middle East: Scenarios
of Wars to Come

6. UN World Water Development Reports (WWDR)
WWDR1: Water for WWDR2: Water, a WWDR3: Water in
People, Water for Shared Responsibility a Changing World
Life (2003) (2006) (2009)

7. UN World Water Development Report 4 (2012)

8. HEADLINES
• About half of the countries in MENA are
consuming more water on average than they
are receiving in rainfall
• Per capita water availability in MENA is
projected to fall by half of what it currently is
by 2050
• Eighty-five percent of the water in the MENA
region is used for irrigation

10. • With rapid population growth, water withdrawals have tripled
over the last 50 years.
• This trend is explained largely by the rapid increase in irrigation
development stimulated by food demand in the 1970s and by
the continued growth of agriculture-based economies.
• In 2030, 47% of world population will be living in areas of high
water stress.
• Most population growth will in regions that are already
experiencing water stress and in areas with limited access to
safe drinking water and adequate sanitation facilities.

11. • The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is already the
most water-scarce area of the world.
• In recent years the amount of water available per person has
declined dramatically.
• Current estimates for climate change indicate a drop in rainfall
precipitation of 20 - 40% plus an increase in temperatures -
meaning increased evaporation
• Based on these available indicators, the MENA region will see a
lot more people trying to manage with a lot less water.

12. Impact of water scarcity on food
production:
• 85% of the water in the MENA region is used for irrigation
from which increasing urban demands can be met.
• Whilst more efficient irrigation practices can be adopted,
industry and human consumption are competing for the finite
amounts of water used for agriculture in many parts of the
region.
• This poses huge national, transnational and geopolitical
problems and potential conflict for the whole MENA region.

13. • With less groundwater available for agriculture, the region is
going to be much more dependent on imports for food.
• As the region's dependence on trade gets higher and higher,
there are economic risks, for example the MENA region already
imports about 50% of its grain.
• Increases in the prices of grain and other staples will have a big
impact on consumers, where population growth rates are
amongst the highest in the world.
• This will create volatility in an already politically volatile region.

14. Annual Renewable Water Resources in MENA (2000)

15. • Middle Eastern nations are home to only 4.5% of the world's
population, but are the source of up to half the world's oil
supply.
• Yet, these nations receive only 2% of the world's rainfall and
possess only 0.4% of the world's recoverable water sources.
• The total water supply of the Arab nations is less than 150
billion cubic meters.
• With the population in this area expected to rise from 250
million in 2004 to 600 million by 2030, Arab per capita water
supplies are expected to decrease by half: from 150 to 75
cubic meters per year

19. Alphabet Soup
• UNESCO - International Hydrological Programme (IHP)
• UNESCO - Institute for Water Education (IWE - Delft, Holland)
• UNESCO – World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP)
• UN/UNESCO-sponsored university professorships
• Sponsored training, research & assessment centres/institutes
• AWC - Arab Water Council (est. 2004)
• AWA - Arab Water Academy (Abu Dhabi, est. 2008) – partners
incl World Bank, Islamic Dev Bank, USAID, International
Center for Biosaline Agriculture (Dubai)
• CEDARE - Centre for Environment & Development in the Arab
Region & Europe (Cairo)
• ACSAD – Arab Center for the Study of Arid Zones & Dry Lands

20. Regional history
ALWAYS dominated
by water
Fertile crescent
Cradle of
civilisation

21. Where can WE fit in?
• In the MENA region water scarcity is high and
being used at unsustainable rates.
• Obscured by variable demand/climate change
• Water efficiency generally low
• Competing governmental dept /regional
policies
• Lack of public funds
• Centralization of decision-making

22. • BUT: high energy costs: water production uses double
amount of energy in winter (one m3 = $1.45 incl. energy &
transport)
• Desalination produces 40 to 180 million tons of CO2 a year.

23. Where can WE fit in?
• Status of local officials threatened
• Water efficiency generally low
• Even averse change happens incrementally
• Education of water users –
domestic/industrial/agricultural
• Recycling of water
• Recharging of groundwater
• Local institutions too weak to manage water
policy.

24. Where can WE fit in?
• Water transference (aqueducts/towed
containers)
• Upstream/downstream transnational clashes
– independent arbiters (bananas vs. wheat)
• Understanding local clan/tribal systems
• Water tariffs
• Easier to monitor from outside

25. Where can WE fit in?
• MENA has already allocated significant
investment in developing water resources.
• The region has supported advances in
hydrological engineering for better utilization
of surface & ground water resources.
• But, MENA generally gives more attention to
engineering than to water policy and demand
management.

26. Where can WE fit in?
• Advise on reduction of water allocation to
agriculture
• Change cropping systems
• Increase the use of non conventional water -
(saline, treated waste, marginal and industrial
water)
• Improve technology of desalinating water and
its efficient use and recycling.

27. Where can WE fit in?
• Provide an interdisciplinary understanding of
the global water system, using projections,
expert opinion and analysis of available
information.
• Support scenario building at local, national,
transnational & regional levels to stimulate
the interchange of experiences, mutual
learning and reciprocal capacity-building
among stakeholders.

28. Simple Risk Assessments