Unicef Training September New York September 2009

The Social Dimensions of Climate Change Learning Module
Youth and Climate Change - UNICEF, 9 September 2009
-

Carina Bachofen and Edward Cameron
Social Development Department, The World Bank

LEARNING MODULE
Introduction to the World Bank Social Development Department

The Social Development Department at the World Bank aims to empower
poor and marginalized women and men through a process of transforming
institutions for greater inclusion, cohesion and accountability.

๏ Social Policy Analysis
๏ Local Governance and Community Driven Development
๏ Conﬂict Crime and Violence
๏ Indigenous Peoples and Involuntary Resettlement

LEARNING MODULE
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change at the World Bank

๏ Social justice as over-arching theme
๏ Governance and social accountability in climate action
๏ Equity, rights, and livelihood security in CC mitigation & adaptation
๏ Learning module and micro-documentary contest
๏ Rights, forests and climate change
๏ Local institutions, area-based development & CC
๏ Emerging work on IPs, gender, conﬂict, and urban

Our goal:
Socially inclusive, climate-resilient policies & operations in client countries

LEARNING MODULE
GOALS and STRUCTURE

To LEARN: To LEAD:
We must We need to
change our shape urgent
understanding policy
of climate responses to
change climate change

Why study the social dimensions of climate change?

Analysis and diagnostics - reshapes climate change as a
human and social issue; helps to determine thresholds and
targets; brings new disciplines into the debate

Process - key to authoritative advocacy; providing access to
processes; inﬂuencing the nature of processes; vital for
building constituencies and securing agreement

Outcomes - critical in shaping global policy architecture and
responses; instruments and application at the local level

Social justice - addresses inequalities; reduces
vulnerabilities; builds resilience

the social dimensions of climate change learning module
climate change and youth

Our goals for today: Learn and Lead

Learn:
Climate change 101
Climate change and people


Climate Change 101 the IPCC conclusions
Unequivocal

Accelerating

Human Induced (anthropogenic)

2°C is the temperature rise
identiﬁed as a serious natural
systems tipping point

450ppm is the CO2 equivalent in
the atmosphere required

80% reductions in GHG emissions
will be required by 2050


Climate Change 101 how the world warms

Orbital Variations Takes thousands of years to register

Tectonic Activity Again too slow

Volcanoes No sign of a sustained pattern of eruptions

Solar Variability Solar variations produce a small effect

Does not produce the rapid temperature rises of the
Internal Variability
past century

The Warming; the Nature of the warming; and the
Human induced Pace of the warming can only be explained by human
induced factors.


Climate Change 101 human contributions

Power
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Land use
Agriculture
Waste
Other energy


Climate Change 101 responsibility
Only 17 countries account for 1% or more of Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2),
global greenhouse gas emissions thousand metric tons of CO2

Together, these 17 countries are responsible for
more than 85% of global emissions

1990 2004

Sources: United Nations Statistics Division /
European Environment Agency / UNFCCC


Climate Change 101 climate related disasters
Some 262 million people were affected
by climate disasters annually from
2000 to 2004.

In the OECD, one person in every
ﬁfteen hundred was affected by
climate disaster (1:1500)

In the developing world the number
was one in nineteen (1:19)

% of people affected by
A risk differential of 79!
climate disasters 2000 - 2004

Developing World
OECD

Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2007 / 2008


What are the social dimensions of climate change?

Climate change may be the deﬁning social justice issue of our generation.

๏ Poverty, hunger and livelihoods

๏ Destroying settlements and infrastructure and inducing migration

๏ Impacts on human health and fatalities
๏ Exacerbating inequalities

๏ Undermining the realization of rights
๏ Conﬂict, crime and violence


IPCC projected natural impacts

Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to
unique systems and biodiversity, increase in ﬂooding and storm surges

complex social responses
Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conﬂict; damage to infrastructure;
decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts

equity
Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations

human rights and other implications

Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination;
property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children

Vulnerability according to the IPCC:
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation
in which a system is exposed, it's sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007a, p21)


An additional stress on an already stressed system

We are taking things out 20% faster than we can put them back in.
20% of ﬁsh stocks are already depleted.
1 billion people lack access to safe water, while 430 million people
suffer from water stress. This will increase by ﬁve times by 2050
We have lost 20% of our forests in the past 100 years (from 5 billion
hectares to 4 billion).


Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to
which a system is subjected, such as:

๏ Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)
๏ Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)
๏ Reduced agricultural productivity
๏ Increased water insecurity
๏ Increased health risk
๏ Large-scale singularities
๏ Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)


An additional sensitivity on an already sensitive system

30,000 children under the age of ﬁve die every day from hunger and
easily prevented diseases.
90% of the world’s poor depend on forests for their income
30% of the population - more than 800 million people - is
malnourished


An additional sensitivity on an already sensitive system

70% of the people who live in extreme poverty, are women and girls.
Two-thirds of children denied primary education are girls, and 75 per
cent of the world’s 876 million illiterate adults are women.
More than 60% of the population live on less than $2 per day. 1.2
billion people live on less than $1 per day.


Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate
change impacts, such as:

๏ Access to information, decision making
and justice
๏ Dependence on the environment for
livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and
medicine
๏ Geographical context
๏ Financial / socio-economic status
๏ Governance / political economy issues
๏ Gender, age, abilities
๏ Indigenous Peoples
๏ Cultural norms


Adaptation - “Refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or
offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in
climate. It involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability of communities, regions, or
activities to climatic change and variability” (IPCC 2001).

Adaptive Capacity - The resources that can be mobilized to build resilience
๏ Various types of assets (social, physical, natural, ﬁnancial, human, cultural capital)
๏ Technological
๏ Knowledge
๏ Governance


Resilience
Resilience occurs where adaptive capacity is
strong, inequalities are addressed, and exposure
minimized. It reﬂects the ability to deal with
change and continue to develop.

Just as vulnerable communities are threatened with collapse from climate impacts, a resilient
community can anticipate and plan for a sustainable future.


Equity
Vulnerable and marginalized communities are typically least responsible for the cause and
least able to deal with the consequences of climate change.

“These groups, by lacking a voice and inﬂuence in climate change policy making, are
unlikely to account for their particular experience. This is likely to exacerbate their position
of marginalization or vulnerability further” (Pollack, 2008, p17).


Critical in shaping global policy architecture and responses; instruments and application at the
local level; addresses inequalities; reduces vulnerabilities; builds resilience

Improved outcomes, adaptive capacity and resilience

Technological; knowledge; political; various types of assets (social, physical, natural, ﬁnancial,
human, cultural capital)

Enhanced capital and resources
Implementation of governance principles across governance scales leads to enhanced capital and
resources

Improved governance
Key to authoritative advocacy for vulnerable populations; providing access to processes;
inﬂuencing the nature of processes; vital for building constituencies and securing agreement

Change analysis and diagnosis

Case Study 1: The Maldives


Case Study 2: Bolivia


Case study analysis
Question 1: Each student in the group takes ﬁve minutes to read one case study
from The Maldives and Bolivia.
When you have ﬁnished reading the case studies, present the case to
your colleagues, explaining why your chosen country is vulnerable.


Are you vulnerable too?
Question 2: Think about your own vulnerability to climate change. How vulnerable
is your home country? What vulnerabilities are present here in the
United States and in New York City?


Where are we now?

Lead (1) - Shaping policy
responses:
From Kyoto to Copenhagen
Climate building blocks


Kyoto
Missed opportunities and failed promises
A new beginning in Bali
Changing our perspective
All roads lead to Copenhagen
Beyond Copenhagen


Climate policy building blocks

๏ Mitigation

๏ Reduced Emissions from
Deforestation and Degradation
(REDD)

๏ Adaptation

๏ Technology

๏ Finance


Mitigation

๏ Sources

๏ Sinks / Reservoirs

๏ Sequestration

๏ Substitutes


Renewable Energy: Co-beneﬁts

๏ GHG Reductions

๏ Economic returns for those who innovate

๏ Employment and local development

๏ Increased security of supply

๏ Reduced emissions of other pollutants and
health beneﬁts


Biofuels: Negative Social Impacts

๏ Questionable GHG reductions potential

๏ Deforestation

๏ Land acquisition and displacement

๏ Impact on food (production, access, prices)

๏ Political instability, corruption and violence


REDD Agenda ISSUES / ETHICS
Reducing Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation

๏ Deforestation is responsible for at least 25%-30% of
anthropogenic climate change each year

๏ Forests help to slow climate change by acting as a sink / reservoir
for GHG emissions

๏ Assign a price for carbon to cover environmental services and
create incentives for forest conservation and management

๏ Effective forest governance is key to success but remains elusive


Adaptation

๏ Planned versus
autonomous adaptation

๏ First Generation

๏ Second Generation

๏ Third Generation (?)


What Adaptation Strategy?
Case 1: Engineering - protecting the land or the person?

๏ Protects vital infrastructure ๏ Deals with exposure but what about
sensitivity?
๏ Protects vital utilities
๏ May not target the most vulnerable
๏ Coastal zone management
๏ May not address key system impacts
๏ Seawalls, ﬂood defences, etc.. (ecological and social)


What Adaptation Strategy?
Case 2: Health policy - hard or soft adaptation?

๏ Health impacts critical to understanding ๏ Costly (capital and operational)
social dimensions of climate change
๏ Serious resource constraints
๏ Health policy directly addresses a variety of
climate impacts ๏ Requires long-term vision

๏ Contributes to MDGs and spurs economic
development

๏ Draws upon existing ﬁnancial resources


Technology

๏ Research and innovation

๏ Investment and political will

๏ Development and deployment

๏ Access and supporting structures


Finance

๏ How much is required?

๏ New and additional?

๏ How to generate funding?

๏ How to disburse / target funding?


Potential Sources of Climate Finance:
Equitable, efficient and effective?

Current estimates put the cost of dealing with climate
change at between $4bn and $109bn per year
(low end from Stern 2006 / high end from UNDP 2007)

CDM and Carbon Offset Markets
Auctioning of Emissions Rights
Emissions Cap and Trade
Tax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)
GHG Levy
Aviation / Shipping tax
General taxes and specific funds
Carbon Taxes
GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1% by developed countries)
Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)

Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the
Bali Brunch, April 2009


Global:
UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap

Regional:
EU and other initiatives

National:
Policies at the state level

Local / Sub-national:
Initiatives at provincial, community and household level


What can you do?

Lead (2) - The Four Cs:
Citizen
Consumer
Communicator
Change Agent


Question 3: What can you do?
What practical steps can you take a s a
Citizen, Consumer, Communicator and
Change Agent to address climate change?


Climate change - what path shall we take?


Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:

CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS

EQUITY INEQUITY

RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY


Governance
improved policies, processes and outcomes

“The great tragedy of sustainable development is that we have not
invented a politics to go with the concept”.
James MacNeill, former Secretary General of the Brundtland Commission


www.worldbank.org/sdcc


www.1010uk.org


Its your world
Its your responsibility
Its your time to LEAD!


Thank you for your attention

Carina Bachofen - cbachofen@worldbank.org
Edward Cameron - ecameron@worldbank.org


Unicef Training September New York September 2009

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