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Using Metrics
as a Map
@catswetel
cat.swetel@praxisflow.com
7 Oct 2016 12:20-12:50pm in Pentland West
#lascot16
“Cat Swetel is one of
the few A.I.s to have
passed both the Turing
and Bechdel tests.”
-- Will Evans
“Cat Swetel is one of the
most effective and
capable producers of
carbon dioxide in a North
America. Possibly the
world.”
-- Jeff Kosciejew
Who is Cat?
“Cat Swetel does
fine at some stuff.”
-- Steve
AGENDA
Some awesome
lagging indicators
Using different views to tell
different stories or different
versions of the same story
Leading indicators????
Relationships
@CATSWETEL
Popular
Agile
metrics
pic: @codinghorror
read the replies: bit.ly/10xfingers
“Everything’s made up
and the points don’t
matter.”
-Drew Carey
Assumptions:
● Our customers care about time
○ Calendar days
○ Global markets and teams
● Our customers care about value
● We have data (per unit of value)
○ Start date
○ End date
○ Date delivered
● The problem is usually (almost
always) the system, not the
people
“Everything’s made up
and the points don’t
matter.”
-Drew Carey
What’s the value of
metrics?
● Tell stories, build
shared context
● Make decisions in
context
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time
Units of time per unit of value
e.g.
this story took 5 days
this ticket took 8 hours
this feature took 2 weeks
End Date - Start Date = Cycle Time
Where does it begin and end?
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
@CATSWETEL
“Never triangle-face!
I hate triangle face!
It scares me!”
--Danny McBride in Your Highness
@CATSWETEL
Run chart?
Control chart?
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
Cycle time? Is there any old way?
Probably at project level or maybe in ops
there will be SLAs. This is a way under
utilized metric. IMO
Frequency
Cycle Time Distribution
@CATSWETEL
Weibull Curve
You can still buy Weebles!
amzn.to/1WCxdze
@CATSWETEL
Weibull Curve
Great example from Eli
Goldratt’s Critical Chain:
How long does it take you
to get to work?
@CATSWETEL
85% Probability
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
with probability
@CATSWETEL
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
WTF?!
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
Cycle time? Is there any old way?
Probably at project level or maybe in ops
there will be SLAs. This is a way under
utilized metric. IMO
Frequency
Cycle Time Distribution
@CATSWETEL
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
WTF?!
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
Cycle time? Is there any old way?
Probably at project level or maybe in ops
there will be SLAs. This is a way under
utilized metric. IMO
Frequency
Cycle Time Distribution
@CATSWETEL
But what if it doesn’t look like that? What if
it looks like a camel?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Multimodal
@CATSWETEL
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Multimodal
Why?
● Different work item types
● Different work flows
● External dependency
● …etc
@CATSWETEL
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Multimodal
Beware the blob.
@CATSWETEL
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
85% Probability
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
probability??
95%
probability
50%
probability
@CATSWETEL
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
with throughput, max and min
@CATSWETEL
Throughput
Units of value per unit of time
e.g.
stories per sprint
tickets per day
features per month
@CATSWETEL
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
WTF?!
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
WTF?!
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
????????????
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
9 9
11
6
4
6 4
10
13
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
throughput
@CATSWETEL
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
9 9
11
6
4
6 4
10
13
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
throughput
@CATSWETEL
Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY
not a real control chart with control limits based
on sigmas
9 9
11
6
4
6 4
10
13
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
throughput + probability
95%
probability
50%
probability
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
95%
probability
50%
probability
30
16
Good for managing customer expectations
Good for CCPM
@CATSWETEL
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
95%
probability
50%
probability
30
16
@CATSWETEL
“What’s the likelihood we’ll hit this date?”
“How quickly can you get this to me?”
Cycle Time Scatter Plot
95%
probability
50%
probability
30
16
What is the cost of more certainty?
@CATSWETEL
Foreshadowing....
What is the cost of more certainty?
LAGGING vs LEADING
INDICATORS
@CATSWETEL
Lagging Indicators
@CATSWETEL
Predictive metrics!
Is there such a thing common in agile teams today?
Ummmm not really
DONE
REVIEW
DOING
TO DO
TUE WED THU FRI MON TUE WED
@CATSWETEL
Leading Indicator: Cumulative Flow Diagram
@CATSWETEL
Leading Indicator:
Cumulative Flow Diagram
@CATSWETEL
Leading Indicator:
Cumulative Flow Diagram
?
Little’s Law
average # of items in
a system
average
arrival rate
average time spent
in the system= *
average time spent
in the system =
average # of items in
a system /
average
throughput
@CATSWETEL
Little’s Law
average # of items in
a system
average
arrival rate
average time spent
in the system= *
average time spent
in the system =
average # of items in
a system /
average
throughput
@CATSWETEL
Little’s Law
average # of items in
a system
average
arrival rate
average time spent
in the system= *
average time spent
in the system =
average # of items in
a system /
average
throughput
@CATSWETEL
“Every time you violate an assumption of Little’s Law
your process becomes less predictable.”
--Dan Vacanti in Actionable Agile Metrics
Data is all about
stories and
relationships
@CATSWETEL
The (useful) Agile metrics you might not
know:
Cycle time, throughput, WIP
Know the bounds (time and space)
Different views change and often enrich
the story
The value of metrics is in the
relationships
Using Metrics
as a Map
@catswetel
cat.swetel@praxisflow.com

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Lean Agile Scotland: Using Metrics as a Map

  • 1. Using Metrics as a Map @catswetel cat.swetel@praxisflow.com 7 Oct 2016 12:20-12:50pm in Pentland West #lascot16
  • 2. “Cat Swetel is one of the few A.I.s to have passed both the Turing and Bechdel tests.” -- Will Evans “Cat Swetel is one of the most effective and capable producers of carbon dioxide in a North America. Possibly the world.” -- Jeff Kosciejew Who is Cat? “Cat Swetel does fine at some stuff.” -- Steve
  • 3. AGENDA Some awesome lagging indicators Using different views to tell different stories or different versions of the same story Leading indicators???? Relationships @CATSWETEL
  • 5. “Everything’s made up and the points don’t matter.” -Drew Carey Assumptions: ● Our customers care about time ○ Calendar days ○ Global markets and teams ● Our customers care about value ● We have data (per unit of value) ○ Start date ○ End date ○ Date delivered ● The problem is usually (almost always) the system, not the people
  • 6. “Everything’s made up and the points don’t matter.” -Drew Carey What’s the value of metrics? ● Tell stories, build shared context ● Make decisions in context
  • 7. Cycle Time Scatter Plot @CATSWETEL
  • 8. Cycle Time Units of time per unit of value e.g. this story took 5 days this ticket took 8 hours this feature took 2 weeks End Date - Start Date = Cycle Time Where does it begin and end? @CATSWETEL
  • 9. Cycle Time Scatter Plot @CATSWETEL
  • 10. “Never triangle-face! I hate triangle face! It scares me!” --Danny McBride in Your Highness
  • 12. Cycle time? Is there any old way? Probably at project level or maybe in ops there will be SLAs. This is a way under utilized metric. IMO Frequency Cycle Time Distribution @CATSWETEL
  • 13. Weibull Curve You can still buy Weebles! amzn.to/1WCxdze @CATSWETEL
  • 14. Weibull Curve Great example from Eli Goldratt’s Critical Chain: How long does it take you to get to work? @CATSWETEL
  • 15. 85% Probability Cycle Time Scatter Plot with probability @CATSWETEL
  • 16. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas WTF?! @CATSWETEL Cycle Time Scatter Plot
  • 17. Cycle time? Is there any old way? Probably at project level or maybe in ops there will be SLAs. This is a way under utilized metric. IMO Frequency Cycle Time Distribution @CATSWETEL
  • 18. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas WTF?! @CATSWETEL Cycle Time Scatter Plot
  • 19. Cycle time? Is there any old way? Probably at project level or maybe in ops there will be SLAs. This is a way under utilized metric. IMO Frequency Cycle Time Distribution @CATSWETEL
  • 20. But what if it doesn’t look like that? What if it looks like a camel? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Multimodal @CATSWETEL
  • 21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Multimodal Why? ● Different work item types ● Different work flows ● External dependency ● …etc @CATSWETEL
  • 22. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Multimodal Beware the blob. @CATSWETEL
  • 23. @CATSWETEL Cycle Time Scatter Plot 85% Probability
  • 24. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas Cycle Time Scatter Plot probability?? 95% probability 50% probability @CATSWETEL
  • 25. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas Cycle Time Scatter Plot with throughput, max and min @CATSWETEL
  • 26. Throughput Units of value per unit of time e.g. stories per sprint tickets per day features per month @CATSWETEL
  • 27. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas WTF?! @CATSWETEL Cycle Time Scatter Plot
  • 28. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas WTF?! @CATSWETEL Cycle Time Scatter Plot ????????????
  • 29. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas 9 9 11 6 4 6 4 10 13 Cycle Time Scatter Plot throughput @CATSWETEL
  • 30. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas 9 9 11 6 4 6 4 10 13 Cycle Time Scatter Plot throughput @CATSWETEL
  • 31. Cycle time new way….and with PROBABILITY not a real control chart with control limits based on sigmas 9 9 11 6 4 6 4 10 13 Cycle Time Scatter Plot throughput + probability 95% probability 50% probability @CATSWETEL
  • 32. Cycle Time Scatter Plot 95% probability 50% probability 30 16 Good for managing customer expectations Good for CCPM @CATSWETEL
  • 33. Cycle Time Scatter Plot 95% probability 50% probability 30 16 @CATSWETEL “What’s the likelihood we’ll hit this date?” “How quickly can you get this to me?”
  • 34. Cycle Time Scatter Plot 95% probability 50% probability 30 16 What is the cost of more certainty? @CATSWETEL
  • 35. Foreshadowing.... What is the cost of more certainty?
  • 38. Predictive metrics! Is there such a thing common in agile teams today? Ummmm not really DONE REVIEW DOING TO DO TUE WED THU FRI MON TUE WED @CATSWETEL Leading Indicator: Cumulative Flow Diagram
  • 41. Little’s Law average # of items in a system average arrival rate average time spent in the system= * average time spent in the system = average # of items in a system / average throughput @CATSWETEL
  • 42. Little’s Law average # of items in a system average arrival rate average time spent in the system= * average time spent in the system = average # of items in a system / average throughput @CATSWETEL
  • 43. Little’s Law average # of items in a system average arrival rate average time spent in the system= * average time spent in the system = average # of items in a system / average throughput @CATSWETEL “Every time you violate an assumption of Little’s Law your process becomes less predictable.” --Dan Vacanti in Actionable Agile Metrics
  • 44. Data is all about stories and relationships @CATSWETEL
  • 45. The (useful) Agile metrics you might not know: Cycle time, throughput, WIP Know the bounds (time and space) Different views change and often enrich the story The value of metrics is in the relationships
  • 46. Using Metrics as a Map @catswetel cat.swetel@praxisflow.com