This slide summarizes the duration and performance of bull- and bear-market cycles for listed U.S. equity REITs since the early 1970s. The real estate market cycle seems to last about 18 years on average--an observation made in 1930, if not earlier. The last three bear markets have each lasted about 1-2 years; the last two bull markets have been 14 2/3 years (12/74-8/89) and 16 1/4 years (10/90-1/07), with listed U.S. equity REIT returns averaging close to 20% per year. The current REIT bull market started 8 1/2 years ago. Note that not every month during a real estate bull market is positive: in fact, about one-third of months have been negative during previous bull markets. In fact, during the long bull market of 10/90-1/07, listed U.S. equity REITs suffered a severe mid-cycle downturn in 12/97 – 11/99 as investors pulled out so they could participate in the dot-com bubble. Questions? Contact me at bcase@nareit.com.

1. Monthly data as of July 2017
Source: NAREIT® analysis of data from FTSE NAREIT All Equity REIT Index.
Comparison of Equity REIT Bull and Bear Cycles
Starting / Ending
Dates
Duration Overall Total Return
Annualized Total
Return
Positive / Negative
Months
September 1972 –
December 1974
27 months -37.0% -18.5% 63% negative
December 1974 –
August 1989
176 months +1,339.5% +19.9% 69% positive
August 1989 –
October 1990
14 months -23.9% -20.9% 86% negative
October 1990 –
January 2007
195 months +1,239.5% +17.3% 64% positive
Sub-periods
10/90 –
12/97
86 months +284.3% +20.7% 64% positive
12/97 –
11/99
23 months -23.7% -13.2% 75% negative
11/99 –
1/07
86 months +357.0% +23.6% 74% positive
January 2007 –
February 2009
25 months -68.3% -42.4% 60% negative
February 2009 -
present
101 months
so far
+406.5%
so far
+21.3%
so far
63% positive
so far
Bull market phase Bear market phase
0