This document provides a housing market analysis for Fairfax County for December 2008 data. It includes sales numbers, median sales prices, inventory levels, and other key metrics for various cities and areas within the county. The analysis shows that while total sales were up in December 2008 compared to the previous year, median sales prices and average sale prices were down between 18-26% year-over-year. Inventory levels were also down across most areas.
1. Fairfax County
Housing Market Analysis
December 2008 Data
Prepared by Senior Consultant, Rosemary deButts (MIRM)
FULTON RESEARCH
AND CONSULTING, INC.
11350 Random Hills Road
Suite 330
Fairfax, VA 22030
540.338.2212 Direct
1.703.673.9950 Fax
www.fultonresearch.com
rdebutts@fultonresearch.com
2. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Executive Summary
Black font represents a positive indicator, red is negative
City Sales Month's Supply Inventory Median Sales Price Average DOMP
Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07
Fairfax 1,170 34% 33% 4.7 ‐16% ‐41% $320,000 0% ‐26% 95 0% ‐10%
Alexandria 207 25% 28% 5.0 ‐17% $302,000 ‐8% ‐28% 108 10% 0%
Annandale 51 ‐9% 11% 5.5 40% $290,700 ‐1% ‐33% 99 5% ‐23%
Burke 56 51% 60% 3.3 ‐35% $290,000 ‐9% ‐26% 69 ‐31% ‐37%
Centreville 98 34% 51% 3.8 ‐42% $275,000 0% ‐18% 79 ‐8% ‐19%
Chantilly 22 38% 69% 4.3 7% $264,000 ‐4% ‐16% 65 ‐32% ‐32%
Fairfax 113 18% ‐2% 6.0 4% $380,000 ‐3% ‐18% 97 29% 0%
Falls Church 122 47% 54% 4.0 ‐24% $312,500 ‐2% ‐30% 101 15% 20%
Great Falls 13 63% ‐48% 12.3 ‐42% $1,070,000 ‐3% ‐18% 147 ‐31% ‐22%
Herndon 118 28% 76% 3.3 ‐9% $242,000 1% ‐41% 86 ‐22% ‐17%
Lorton 56 65% 155% 4.1 ‐34% $333,000 ‐10% ‐2% 89 ‐17% ‐15%
McLean 50 61% 4% 7.0 38% $590,000 ‐26% ‐19% 102 ‐23% ‐4%
Oakton 15 150% 36% 5.8 ‐47% $700,000 119% 8% 135 75% 80%
Reston 80 29% 11% 3.7 ‐49% $274,000 ‐4% ‐25% 79 ‐6% ‐28%
Springfield 113 38% 69% 4.4 7% $305,000 2% ‐25% 96 12% ‐18%
Vienna 56 93% 2% 5.3 9% $563,920 ‐16% ‐2% 109 10% 15%
Source: MRIS
Twelve Month Trend (as shown by blue lines on the following pages); positive indicators shown in dark blue type
Total Sales UP December's sales were 107% higher than January
Detached Sales UP Increased 47.1% in December after five consecutive months of declines
Attached Sales UP Up 69% year over year but dowm 13.2% from high in June
Condo Sales UP Increased six of twelve months in 2008
Median Sales Price Down Down 26% and not this low since sometime in 2003
Avg Close Price: Detached Down Down 25% year over year and ‐$77,000 since the 2008 high in March
Avg Close Price: Attached Down Down 27% and ‐$105,277 on a year over year basis
Avg Close Price: Condos Down Declined 19% just since January (‐$52,617)
Close Price to List Price % Flat 2008 average equals 92%; ratio exceeded 90% all year
Supply of Inventory (MSI) DOWN The MSI has not been this low (4.7 months) since March of 2007
Days on Market (DOMP) DOWN No change from November but fell below 100 days in seven months of 2008
Short Sales, Foreclosure Solds Up December's sales were 213% higher than the low point in January
Short Sales, Foreclosure Listings Up Represented 19.4% of the total county‐wide listings in December
Page 2 of 17
3. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Notes concerning the data in this analysis
1. Some cities are combined to conserve space: Fairfax Station and Clifton are included in Fairfax statistics; Oak Hill is part of Herndon; Kingstowne is part of
Alexandria; Baileys Crossroads, Arlington, and Merrifield addresses are part of Annandale; Mason Neck and Fort Belvoir are included in Lorton; and Dunn
Loring is included in Vienna statistics.
2. As of October 31, 2008, list price refers to quot;original list pricequot;.
3. House types excluded from this analysis include quot;bed & breakfastquot;, quot;mobilequot;, quot;otherquot;, quot;garage/park spacequot;, quot;house of worshipquot;, quot;dwelling w/rentalquot;, quot;double
widequot;, quot;vacation homequot;, or quot;vacation rentalquot;.
4. Year‐to‐Date price stratification analysis added November 30, 2008.
5. Sales and listings with foreclosure/short sale designations as a percentage of total sales and total listings analysis added November 30, 2008.
6. As of December 31, 2008, listings includes the quot;activequot;, quot;contingency/kick outquot;, quot;contingency/no kickoutquot;, and quot;app regquot; statuses. Listings
excludes the quot;contractquot;, quot;expiredquot; and quot;withdrawnquot; statuses.
7. As of December 31, 2008, an analysis of the foreclosures and short sales by subdivision was added.
Page 3 of 17
5. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
YTD Existing Home Sales Price Stratification
Close Price 2007 2008
3,500
< $200K 219 1,122
3,046
$200s 1,606 2,351 2,912
3,000
$300s 3,046 2,609
2,609
$400s 2,912 1,643
2,500 2,351
$500s 2,052 1,032
2007
Total YTD Sales
2,052
$600s 1,306 626
2,000 2008
$700s 781 398 1,643
1,606
$800s 478 219
1,500 1,306
$900s 302 101
1,122
1,032
$1Ms 748 332
1,000 781
> $2M 110 71
626
478
398
500 302
219 219
101
2007 vs. 2008 Variance
0
< $200K 412.3%
< $200K $200s $300s $400s $500s $600s $700s $800s $900s
$200s 46.4%
Source: MRIS
$300s ‐14.3%
$400s ‐43.6% The largest percentage growth in sales in 2008 compared to the same time in 2007 has been among listings priced less than
$200,000 (+400%). In fact, every price category has declined except for those listings priced below $300,000.
$500s ‐49.7%
$600s ‐52.1%
$700s ‐49.0%
$800s ‐54.2%
$900s ‐66.6%
$1Ms ‐55.6%
> $2M ‐35.5%
0 #DIV/0!
Page 5 of 17
6. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 34.5% 1,600
1,487
1,500
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 32.7% 1,355
1,392
1,400 1,326
12 Month High: Jun 08 1,487 1,257
1,300
1,170
12 Month Low: Jan 08 565 1,158
Monthly Sales
1,200 1,064
2008 Average 1,115
1,100 998
2007 Average 1,131
1,000
900
736
Sales in December were 107% higher than 800 870
they were in January and the 12‐month 700 565
trend is up. After 3 consecutive months of 600
declines, the total sales jumped 35% over 500
November's results.
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Total Sales
225
High Sales: Alexandria 207 207
200
Low Sales: Great Falls 13
175
Monthly Sales
Alexandria typically records the most sales 150
122
in a given month. In December, 113 113
125 118
98
Alexandria's sales represented 18% of the
100 80
total. The more affluent areas of Great
75 56 56 56
51
Falls, McLean and Oakton typically post the 50
50
fewest sales. 22
15
13
25
0
Source: MRIS
Page 6 of 17
7. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Median Sales Price (Last Twelve Months)
$440,000
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 0.0%
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐25.6% $420,000 $412,000
12 Month High: Jun 08 $412,000 $399,900 $397,000
$400,000
12 Month Low: Dec 08 $320,000
Average Close Price
$405,000
2008 Average $373,238 $395,000 $399,000 $379,950
$375,000
$380,000
2007 Average $454,782
$360,000 $350,000
Median sales prices are trending way down
in Fairfax County. There was no change in
$340,000
December from the low posted in
$320,000
November and the on a year‐over‐year
$320,000 $326,000
basis, the MSP was down 26%. Median $320,000
prices in the low $300s have not occurred $300,000
since the 2003 time frame.
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Median Sales Price
$1,200,000
$1,070,000
$1,100,000
High MSP: Great Falls $1,070,000
$1,000,000
Low MSP: Herndon $242,000
$900,000
Avg Close Price
$800,000 $700,000
$700,000
$590,000 $563,920
$600,000
$500,000
$380,000 $333,000
$290,700 $305,000
$400,000 $302,000 $312,500
$290,000 $264,000 $274,000
$275,000 $242,000
$300,000
$200,000
Source: MRIS
Page 7 of 17
8. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly SFD Sales (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 47.1% 850
764
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 31.9%
750 726
12 Month High: Jun 08 764 664
663
12 Month Low: Jan 08 259 650
Monthly Sales
555
2008 Average 529 562
499
550
2007 Average 491 508
450
Total sales of detached units are trending 382
423
337
up even after five consecutive months of
350
declines. The first quarter was dismal in 259
2008. 250
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Monthly SFD Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐4.7%
$640,000
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐25.1%
$619,781
12 Month High: Mar 08 $619,781 $616,866
$620,000 $615,443 $610,536 $608,025
12 Month Low: Sep 08 $514,060 $605,511
2008 Average $588,470 $608,892
$600,000
Average Close Price
$605,275
2007 Average $715,423
$580,000
The Average Close Price for detached units $568,828
is trending down. After two months of $560,000
increases, December had a 5% decline. $546,253
Prices have fallen 14% since the high in $540,000
$542,165
March (‐$77,616) and 25.1% from last
December (‐$181,317). $520,000
$514,060
$500,000
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Source: MRIS
Page 8 of 17
9. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly SFA Sales (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 23.1% 550
479
491
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 69.0% 456
12 Month High: Jun 08 491 437 421
450 426
402
12 Month Low: Jan 08 155
Monthly Sales
386
2008 Average 380 346
350
2007 Average 345 328
235
Sales in December 2008 of attached units
250
were up 69% compared to last December
and down 13.2% from the 12‐month high 155
reached in June. 150
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Monthly SFA Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐5.9%
$425,000
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐26.6%
12 Month High: Mar 08 $383,648
$400,000 $383,648
12 Month Low: Dec 08 $290,957
2008 Average $343,579 $372,631
$370,587
$375,000
Average Close Price
$380,614
2007 Average $428,453 $352,208
$369,217
$350,000
$336,270
Thre trend is down for the average close
$341,149
price for attached units in Fairfax County. $325,000 $311,913
The average price in December was 27% $309,087
less than in last December (‐$105,227). $300,000 $304,672
$290,957
$275,000
$250,000
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Source: MRIS
Page 9 of 17
10. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly CON Sales (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 29.1% 275
246
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 11.0%
250
229
12 Month High: Jun 08 246
212
225 213
12 Month Low: Jan 08 124
Monthly Sales
198
2008 Average 182 200
182
179
2007 Average 228 178
175
144
141
Condo sales are trending up in Fairfax with 150 132
124
six months of increases. The first and last
125
quarters of 2008 posted total sales less than
200 units but the May ‐September period 100
were strong.
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Monthly CON Average Close Price (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 8.6%
$300,000
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐18.5%
12 Month High: Jan 08 $282,899 $282,899
$278,340
12 Month Low: Nov 08 $213,994 $274,541
$275,000
2008 Average $254,837
$264,805
Average Close Price
2007 Average $311,697 $272,992
$257,564
$255,014
Like all product types, condo prices declined $250,000 $253,776
about 19% in 2008 (‐$52,617). Prices $239,457
$232,418
declined seven out twelve months in 2008.
$232,243
$225,000
$213,994
$200,000
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Source: MRIS
Page 10 of 17
11. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Month's Supply of Inventory (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐15.9%
15.0
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐40.7%
12 Month High: Jan 08 12.5 12.5
13.0
12 Month Low: Dec 08 4.7
2008 Average 6.9
11.0 10.2
2007 Average 6.8
MSI
9.0
FRC considers the market to be in 8.0
7.3
equilibrium (there is enough supply to
6.4
7.0
satisfy demand) when the MSI is at 4 to 5
5.4 5.7
5.5 5.5
5.7 5.4
months. After reaching a high of 12.5
4.7
months in January, the figure hovered 5.0
around 5.5 months from June to November.
With December's low figure, the trend is 3.0
down (a good thing) and puts Fairfax's
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
market in equilibrium.
Month's Supply of Inventory
14.0
High MSI: Great Falls 12.3 12.3
12.0
Low MSI: Burke,Herndon 3.3
10.0
Herndon had the lowest MSI in September,
October, November and December with 8.0 7.0
only + or ‐ 3 months supply of available 6.0 5.8
5.5 5.3
6.0 5.0
inventory. Great Falls and McLean, with 4.4
4.3 4.1
4.0
3.8
their high priced inventory, have the largest 3.7
3.3 3.3
4.0
available supply. Eight of the fifteen areas
are in equilibrium though. 2.0
0.0
Source: MRIS
Page 11 of 17
12. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Average Close Price to Average List Price %
95%
12 mo High CP/LP %: Apr 08 93.8%
12 mo Low CP/LP %: Nov 08 90.7% 93.8%
94%
12 Month Average 92.0% 93.1%
92.9% 92.9%
2008 Average 92.0%
93% 92.4%
2007 Average 93.8%
CP to LP %
92% 91.5% 92.1% 91.7%
This indicator measures the willingness of
91.0%
90.8%
sellers to negotiate price. The 12 month 91% 91.2%
trend for the last quarter of 2008 was up,
90.7%
but following five months of declines 90%
culminating in the exceptionally low
November ratio, the trendline is now 89%
headed down slightly. The average was
92.0% for the year. 88%
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Average Close Price to Average List Price %
97.0% 96.1%
High CP/LP %: Lorton 96.1%
Low CP/LP %: Great Falls 87.4% 95.0% 94.1%
93.5%
93.2%
93.0%
Lorton's sellers had the highest Close Price 93.0% 92.3%
to List Price ratio in Decvember while those 91.4% 91.3%
91.1%
in Great Falls accepted offers for only 87% 91.0%
89.8%
89.7% 89.4%
of their asking price, on average, up from
88.8%
76% in November. 89.0% 87.9%
87.4%
87.0%
85.0%
Source: MRIS
Page 12 of 17
13. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly DOMP (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 0.0%
140
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐10.4%
123
12 Month High: Feb 08 123
119 117
12 Month Low: Jun 08 86 120
12 Month Average: 102 108
Monthly DOMP
103
2008 Average 102
2007 Average 87 96
94
100 95 95
94
89
The twelve‐month DOMP average was been
below 100 days for seven of the last twelve 86
80
months. The twelve month trend is down
even though both December had no change
over November.
60
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Monthly DOMP
170
147
High DOMP: Falls Church 147
150
Low DOMP: Centreville 65 135
Monthly DOMP
130
Nine of the fifteen markets had average
109
108
days on market less than 100 days in 110 102
101
99 97 96
December. 89
86
90 79 79
69
65
70
50
Source: MRIS
Page 13 of 17
14. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Sales Designated as Foreclosures, Short Sales, REO Properties, Pre‐Foreclosures
350
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐21.6% 328
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 375.9%
300
12 Month High: Nov 08 328
12 Month Low: Jan 08 82
250 257
221
Total FC/SS
12 Month Average: 179
197
199
2008 Average 102 200 188
2007 Average 30 158
169
150 129
These figures include listings with REO
properties, short sales, foreclosures and pre‐ 82
100 120
foreclosures designations. The trend is 96
steeply up over the last year but down last 50
month. The November figure was almost
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
double the October's foreclosure sales and
December' figure is 213% higher than the
year's low point in January. Month's Supply of Foreclosure Inventory
7.0
6.0 6.0
High FCSS MSI: Annandale/FFX 6.0 5.8
6.0
5.2
Low FCSS MSI: Great Falls 0.0 5.0
4.8 4.8
5.0 4.3 4.2
Total FC/SS
3.9
Based on the number of listings and sales in 4.0
3.0
December, Annandale and Fairfax have the 2.9
3.0 2.3
largest month's supply of the listings 2.1
available with these foreclosure type 2.0
designations. Great Falls has the fewest.
1.0
0.0
0.0
Caution : Realtors are not required to add these
designations so these charts merely show trends.
Also, these are NOT foreclosures recorded in the
Source: MRIS
circuit court.
Page 14 of 17
15. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Listings with Foreclosure, Short Sale, etc. Designations as of January 1, 2009
High Listings FCSS: Alexandria 191
250
Low Listings FCSS: Great Falls 7
191
200
The number of listings with foreclosure type
Total FC/SS
150 124
designations jumped 10% in December to a 114
111
101
new high of 1,055 listings. Alexandria 94
100 72 72
accounts for 18.1% of the county's total
foreclosure/short sale listings. 46 44
50 29
21 19
10
7
0
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings
High Sales FCSS: Alexandria 191
250
Low Sales FCSS: Great Falls 7
191
200
Alexandria and Centreville had the highest
number of sales with these designations in
Total FC/SS
150 124
December while the more affluent areas 114
111
101
like Great Falls and Oakton had the fewest. 94
100 72 72
46 44
50 29
21 19
10
7
0
Source: MRIS
Page 15 of 17
16. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Foreclosure and Short Sale Designations as Percentage of Total Listings
High FCSS Listings %: Nov 08 19.9%
25.0%
Low FCSS Listings %: Jul 08 7.5%
19.9% 19.4%
20.0%
The percentage of total listings with
Percentage of Total
foreclosure and short sale designations is
13.3%
15.0%
trending up, particularly with the 25% hike
Listings
in November.
9.6%
8.3%
10.0% 7.7% 7.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Foreclosure and Short Sale Designations as Percentage of Total Sales
40.0%
High FCSS Sales%: Nov 08 37.7%
37.7%
Low FCSS Sales %: Apr 08 10.4% 35.0%
Percentage of Total Sales
30.0%
The 12‐month trend for the percentage of
total sales with foreclosure and short sale
25.0% 22.0%
designations is headed up. It ranged from
10% to 15% for eight months but accounted 17.6%
20.0%
15.9%
for almost 38% of the total sales in 12.9% 14.5%
14.5%
13.0% 13.5%
November. The percentage fell to 22% in 15.0% 13.4%
11.9%
December. 10.4%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Source: MRIS
Page 16 of 17
17. Fairfax County Housing Market Analysis
Foreclosure and Short Sales Foreclosure and Short Sale Listings
by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008 by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008
City Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Sales City Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS
Listings
SPRINGFIELD NORTH SPRINGFIELD 6 RESTON RESTON 20
RESTON RESTON 6 ALEXANDRIA SEQUOYAH 19
ALEXANDRIA SEQUOYAH 5 SPRINGFIELD SPRINGFIELD 16
BURKE BURKE CENTRE 4 BURKE BURKE CENTRE 13
HERNDON PARK AVENUE SQUARE 4 ANNANDALE FAIRFAX HERITAGE 12
CENTREVILLE SINGLETONS GROVE 4 SPRINGFIELD NORTH SPRINGFIELD 12
HERNDON REFLECTION LAKE 4 FALLS CHURCH WOODLAKE TOWERS 11
CENTREVILLE SULLY STATION 4 HERNDON REFLECTION LAKE 10
SPRINGFIELD SPRINGFIELD 3 ALEXANDRIA MT VERNON VALLEY 8
CENTREVILLE FAIRCREST 3 ALEXANDRIA VILLAGES THE 8
CENTREVILLE LONDON TOWNE 3 CENTREVILLE MEADOWS THE 8
LORTON LAUREL HILL 3 CENTREVILLE LONDON TOWNE 8
BURKE LAKE BRADDOCK 3 HERNDON BRYSON AT 7
Partial list: Three or more sales per subdivision FAIRFAX FAIRFAX RIDGE 7
CENTREVILLE COUNTRY CLUB 7
FALLS CHURCH WEST LAWN 7
CENTREVILLE FAIRCREST 7
CENTREVILLE CENTRE RIDGE 6
LORTON LAUREL HILL 6
CENTREVILLE HERITAGE ESTATES 6
BURKE LAKEPOINTE 6
FALLS CHURCH BEL AIR 6
ALEXANDRIA BUCKNELL MANOR 6
ALEXANDRIA VIRGINIA HILLS 6
Partial list: Six or more listings per subdivision
Source: MRIS
Page 17 of 17
