SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 4
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
OceanForest Investment Partners
                              Security In An Insecure World
                              After 2008’s sharp decline and last year’s stock market recovery, many had hoped that
                              2010 would see a return to relative normalcy and stability. And certainly, the year
                              started on a positive note, as stocks turned in a very strong first quarter performance.

                              Then, in rapid succession came:

                              • The intensification of the budget crisis in Greece in February, with the risk of
                                contagion across Europe

Brent Woyat,                  • Concerns that European budget cuts would slow down economies, with spill-over
CIM, CMT                        effects globally; this is especially problematic in light of the need to compete with a
Portfolio Manager               devalued Euro

                              • Growing fears about a housing bubble in China
Suite 102-2168 Marine Drive
West Vancouver, BC            • The April 22 sinking of a BP oil drilling rig that had exploded and caught on fire
V7V 1K3                         in the Gulf of Mexico
Tel: 604.921.9222
brent.woyat@raymondjames.ca • The May 6 “flash crash” in which U.S. markets plummeted in a matter of minutes
                              without explanation

                              Looking at these events, it’s tempting to ask what the next catastrophe will be. In fact,
                              based on these last six months, historians may view this as “the calamity decade,” even
                              though we’re only 5% into it.

                              In talking to clients about how portfolios should be positioned in light of this, I like
                              to point to the principles of Benjamin Graham, who is considered the father of value
                              investing.

                              Starting in 1926, Graham taught at Columbia University and wrote on investments
                              for 30 years, bringing a new level of rigor to security analysis. His views and approach
                              shaped a generation of money managers, among them Warren Buffett; he enrolled at
                              Columbia with the explicit goal of studying under Graham and joined his firm after
                              graduation. In fact, Buffett describes Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor, as the
                              best book on investing ever written.

                              Recently, financial journalist Jason Zweig unearthed a 1963 talk by Graham, which he
                              posted on his website. Titled “Securities in an Insecure World,” Graham’s talk reminds
                              us of guiding principles that investors always need to bear in mind. In chaotic times
                              like those of late, I particularly focus on three of Graham’s principles.
OceanForest Investment Partners
Principle 1: Invest in stocks and bonds only so far as you can live with fluctuations in prices.

The first principle is based on the idea that investors have to understand their own ability to live with volatility.

Graham went on to say that he believed that by following sound policies, almost any investor should be able to eat well
without losing any sleep—even in the insecure world of 1963, shortly after the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Principle 2: The price you pay when you buy stocks is key.

There are many factors that determine how investments perform over time, but few are more important than paying
a reasonable price when you buy. After all, people who bought companies like Cisco, Intel, and Microsoft 10 years ago
have lost half their money—not because these aren’t exceptional companies, but because the price they paid was too high.

In his talk, Benjamin Graham said that investors should always have an allocation to stocks, bonds, and cash. The
minimum level for stocks should be 25% and the maximum 75%. The amount should be determined by value
considerations, owning more common stocks when the market seems low in relation to value and less when the market
appears expensive.

Principle 3: Long-term goals demand long-term thinking.

Benjamin Graham’s student Warren Buffett has said that it only takes two things to make money—having a sound plan
and sticking to it—and that of those two, it’s the sticking to it part that most investors struggle with.

Markets like we’ve seen of late create understandable stress and can lead to short-term decisions. There was a recent article
in the New York Times titled “Resisting the Urge to Sell Low” that talks about the cost to investors of acting impulsively.

At the risk of repeating a time worn cliché, our experience bears out the view espoused by Graham and Buffett that the
only way to invest successfully over time is to maintain discipline and a long-term focus—to have the right plan and
then to stick to it.

Hard as it can be at times, I’ve found the only approach to investing that works over time is to keep that long-term
view, modifying portfolios as circumstances warrant but never losing sight of the fact that long-term goals demand
long-term thinking.


Portfolio Strategy
As eluded to above, the markets are rarely in a state of equilibrium. Generating a steady rate of return with little volatility
does not exist. On the contrary, the markets were highly volatile in the second quarter, mainly on the downside with
the Canadian market down -6.17% and the U.S. market down -11.86%.

Second quarter weakness also resulted in negative returns year-to-date for the major market indexes. As of June 30th
the S&P/TSX Index was down -3.85% while the S&P 500 Index was down -7.57% since the end of 2009.
OceanForest Investment Partners
Global macro risks are higher than they were a few months ago due to the fiscal tightening in Europe, the UK, Japan
and now the US economies. The crisis in Greece has prompted G20 leaders around the world to accelerate their austerity
plans in an effort to reduce their runaway spending and exploding budget deficits.

Governments have now embarked on a course of cutting public spending and raising taxes which has investors fearing
we are entering a period of slower global economic growth. Stock prices have been correcting lower, discounting a
lower rate of growth than was built into the markets just a few months ago. The sentiment has made a wide swing
from being optimistic of a V-shaped recovery to being overly pessimistic that we are entering a double-dip recession.

As growth slows, cyclical stocks in particular, which have led the recovery so far, appear overpriced and due for a decline.
In the most recent strategy report from Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) their research highlights that certain sectors
carry above average downside risk.

For example, Materials, Capital Goods and Hotels, performed very well coming off the market bottom but are currently
underperforming and look unattractive at this juncture in the economic cycle. Valuation levels are at the top of the
range suggesting considerable downside risk is likely depending on how much of a slowdown we see around the world.

On the positive side, there are several areas that still look attractive such as Consumer Staples, Telecom, Technology
and Advertising. Defensively positioned sectors and groups will benefit from an economic slowdown as investors seek
earnings stability, reliable dividend streams, and liquidity.

Corporate balance sheets remain very healthy as strong cash flows have enabled companies to accumulate large cash
positions to the point where U.S. non-financial companies have over $1.8 trillion in cash on their balance sheets, a 40-
year high. This cash will either be used to make new investments, begin hiring new employees or will be returned to the
shareholders by raising dividend payouts or buying back their own stock. While corporations have been getting their
houses in order, unfortunately, governments have gone in the other direction with out-of-control spending.

Turning to the technical picture, in August 2009 our tactical asset allocation model turned bullish and still remains in
a positive mode even through the recent market correction that began in April. As long as our model stays positive we
will maintain a bullish posture and our strategic equity weighting in the various investment mandates.

Not until our tactical model turns bearish will we begin reducing the equity exposure down to the lower end of the
range stated in our statement of investment policy.

We are still giving the markets the benefit of the doubt that we are simply midway through a cyclical bull market that
began at the March 2009 lows. The strong recovery bounce off of the bear market lows was clearly unsustainable and
appears to be undergoing a correction. We saw a similar situation back in 2004 where the market experienced a major
four month correction with equities trading in a sideways range before starting the second up leg in the bull market.

Although the markets have had a pretty rough go of it lately, the returns in our investment mandates were respectable.

During the quarter our most conservative Enhanced Income portfolio was down -0.10% but was up 2.24% year-to-date.
The balanced Global Growth and Income portfolio was down -3.07% in the quarter but flat year-to-date, down -0.25%.
The all equity Dividend Growth portfolio was down -4.52% in the quarter and -2.43% year-to-date.
OceanForest Investment Partners
Our U.S. Dollar portfolios fared worse than the Canadian Dollar portfolios. The Global Market Leaders Balanced
mandate was down -5.75% in the quarter but managed to recover slightly with a return of -2.93% so far this year. The
Global Market Leaders all equity portfolio was down -10.34% in the quarter and -7.56% year-to-date.

In all of our portfolio mandates the sell-off in May caused most of the damage but we also saw another wave of selling
in the last couple of weeks of June.

During the quarter, there were several positions that held up well. The best performer was Biovail with a gain of almost
20% due to a merger announcement with Valeant Pharmaceutical out of the U.S. Cenovus Energy was up 8.85% as
investors have begun to warm up to the stock after the spin-off from Encana last fall.

We’ve noticed strong demand in the Telecom Sector with Telus being a beneficiary gaining 7.7%. There’s some renewed
interest in the company’s new Optik TV and High Speed Internet services offering as a result of billions of dollars
invested in the recent upgrade of their fiber optic network.

Other notable winners in the quarter include China Mobile, up 6.7%, Encana, up 5.4%, Saputo, up 3.5% and George
Weston, up 3.4%.

All of our portfolios are designed to generate as much tax efficient income as possible in a low interest rate environment
by investing in corporate bonds, preferred shares, dividend paying stocks, income trusts and REITs.

In closing, let me reiterate my appreciation for the continuing opportunity to work together. As always, I welcome your
calls and questions and would be happy to talk at any time.

Sincerely,

Brent Woyat, CIM, CMT
Portfolio Manager

OceanForest Investment Partners




Statistics, factual data, and other information contained in this report were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot
represent that they are accurate or complete. This report is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal
investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James
Ltd. Raymond James Ltd., member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Fross & Fross 2010 Outlook Presentation
Fross & Fross 2010 Outlook PresentationFross & Fross 2010 Outlook Presentation
Fross & Fross 2010 Outlook PresentationRobert & Thomas Fross
 
15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue Extract
15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue Extract15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue Extract
15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue ExtractSean Corrigan
 
Top 10 market themes 2017
Top 10 market themes 2017Top 10 market themes 2017
Top 10 market themes 2017Susana Gallardo
 
Chapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocks
Chapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocksChapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocks
Chapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocksCurrencyHacked
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisisfluoxetina
 
Stop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment Experience
Stop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment ExperienceStop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment Experience
Stop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment ExperienceAndreas Scott, CFP®
 
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure Branded
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure BrandedPursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure Branded
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure BrandedTheresa M. Mahoney
 
December 11 Quarterly
December 11 QuarterlyDecember 11 Quarterly
December 11 QuarterlyMark_Krygier
 
Recessions.Perspective
Recessions.PerspectiveRecessions.Perspective
Recessions.Perspectivehankmoore
 
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013Fasanara Capital ltd
 
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?osubucs
 
Rational Investing
Rational InvestingRational Investing
Rational Investinglsutter
 
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?Susan Langdon
 
Hyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly CommentaryHyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly Commentaryhyrejam
 
A new era in fx risk management
A new era in fx risk managementA new era in fx risk management
A new era in fx risk managementcaplogic-ltd
 

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Fross & Fross 2010 Outlook Presentation
Fross & Fross 2010 Outlook PresentationFross & Fross 2010 Outlook Presentation
Fross & Fross 2010 Outlook Presentation
 
Agcapita July 2009 Update
Agcapita July 2009 UpdateAgcapita July 2009 Update
Agcapita July 2009 Update
 
86 Years of Bulls and Bears
86 Years of Bulls and Bears86 Years of Bulls and Bears
86 Years of Bulls and Bears
 
15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue Extract
15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue Extract15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue Extract
15-12-29 MMM Oct Issue Extract
 
Top 10 market themes 2017
Top 10 market themes 2017Top 10 market themes 2017
Top 10 market themes 2017
 
Chapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocks
Chapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocksChapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocks
Chapter 5 the defensive investor and common stocks
 
2017 09-04 rafi
2017 09-04 rafi2017 09-04 rafi
2017 09-04 rafi
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisis
 
Stop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment Experience
Stop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment ExperienceStop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment Experience
Stop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment Experience
 
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure Branded
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure BrandedPursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure Branded
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience Brochure Branded
 
December 11 Quarterly
December 11 QuarterlyDecember 11 Quarterly
December 11 Quarterly
 
Recessions.Perspective
Recessions.PerspectiveRecessions.Perspective
Recessions.Perspective
 
Q2 2013 Newsletter
Q2 2013 NewsletterQ2 2013 Newsletter
Q2 2013 Newsletter
 
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
 
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
Modern Investing: Is it Different this Time?
 
Rational Investing
Rational InvestingRational Investing
Rational Investing
 
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
 
Hyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly CommentaryHyre Weekly Commentary
Hyre Weekly Commentary
 
Advice for the wise december 2011
Advice for the wise   december 2011Advice for the wise   december 2011
Advice for the wise december 2011
 
A new era in fx risk management
A new era in fx risk managementA new era in fx risk management
A new era in fx risk management
 

Ähnlich wie OFIP Q2 2010 - Security In An Insecure World

Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013
Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013
Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013bwoyat
 
OFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways Market
OFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways MarketOFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways Market
OFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways Marketbwoyat
 
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18Patrick Thuemmel
 
Global Insight- Quality Check
Global Insight- Quality CheckGlobal Insight- Quality Check
Global Insight- Quality CheckDavid Apted
 
201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10
201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10
201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10maxweath
 
Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013Putnam Investments
 
OFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For Optimism
OFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For OptimismOFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For Optimism
OFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For Optimismbwoyat
 
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis  27 aug 2010After the storm- Global Financial Crisis  27 aug 2010
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010Gaurav Sharma
 
Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014
Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014
Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014bwoyat
 
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016Barrie Kent
 
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016Barrie Kent
 
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutionsRobert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutionsPutnam Investments
 
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'emSeptember 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'emMark_Krygier
 
2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vf
2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vf2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vf
2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vfAndrew Kessler
 
Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook
Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook
Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook Investoida
 
The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016Jim Tyson
 
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008Viết Nội Dung
 

Ähnlich wie OFIP Q2 2010 - Security In An Insecure World (20)

Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013
Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013
Brent woyat q3 2013 pimg commentary nov2013
 
OFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways Market
OFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways MarketOFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways Market
OFIP Q1 2010 - The Great Sideways Market
 
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
 
Global Insight- Quality Check
Global Insight- Quality CheckGlobal Insight- Quality Check
Global Insight- Quality Check
 
201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10
201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10
201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10
 
Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Global Income Trust Q&A Q2 2013
 
OFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For Optimism
OFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For OptimismOFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For Optimism
OFIP Q3 2010 - A Case For Optimism
 
Financial Synergies | Q3 2017 Newsletter
Financial Synergies | Q3 2017 NewsletterFinancial Synergies | Q3 2017 Newsletter
Financial Synergies | Q3 2017 Newsletter
 
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis  27 aug 2010After the storm- Global Financial Crisis  27 aug 2010
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010
 
Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014
Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014
Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014
 
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
 
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
True-Insight-Issue-3-2016
 
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutionsRobert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
 
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'emSeptember 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
 
Cracks in the_crystal_ball
Cracks in the_crystal_ballCracks in the_crystal_ball
Cracks in the_crystal_ball
 
2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vf
2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vf2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vf
2010 Financial Markets Outlook_2010_With Cover_2010 vf
 
Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook
Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook
Allianz GI - 2023 Outlook
 
The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016
 
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vietcapital 2008
 
Monthly Perspectives - Volatility - June 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Volatility - June 2016Monthly Perspectives - Volatility - June 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Volatility - June 2016
 

Mehr von bwoyat

Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014
Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014
Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014bwoyat
 
Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014
Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014
Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014bwoyat
 
Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013
Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013
Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013bwoyat
 
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerously
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living DangerouslyOFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerously
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerouslybwoyat
 
OFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back Now
OFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back NowOFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back Now
OFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back Nowbwoyat
 
OFIP Q2 2011 - Money And Opportunity
OFIP Q2 2011 - Money And OpportunityOFIP Q2 2011 - Money And Opportunity
OFIP Q2 2011 - Money And Opportunitybwoyat
 
OFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom Japan
OFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom JapanOFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom Japan
OFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom Japanbwoyat
 

Mehr von bwoyat (7)

Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014
Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014
Brent woyat q1 2014 pimg commentary may2014
 
Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014
Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014
Brent woyat q4 2013 pimg commentary feb2014
 
Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013
Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013
Brent woyat q4 2012 pimg commentary jan2013
 
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerously
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living DangerouslyOFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerously
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerously
 
OFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back Now
OFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back NowOFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back Now
OFIP Q3 2011 - The US Is Coming Back Now
 
OFIP Q2 2011 - Money And Opportunity
OFIP Q2 2011 - Money And OpportunityOFIP Q2 2011 - Money And Opportunity
OFIP Q2 2011 - Money And Opportunity
 
OFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom Japan
OFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom JapanOFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom Japan
OFIP Q1 2011 - Critical Lessons Fom Japan
 

OFIP Q2 2010 - Security In An Insecure World

  • 1. OceanForest Investment Partners Security In An Insecure World After 2008’s sharp decline and last year’s stock market recovery, many had hoped that 2010 would see a return to relative normalcy and stability. And certainly, the year started on a positive note, as stocks turned in a very strong first quarter performance. Then, in rapid succession came: • The intensification of the budget crisis in Greece in February, with the risk of contagion across Europe Brent Woyat, • Concerns that European budget cuts would slow down economies, with spill-over CIM, CMT effects globally; this is especially problematic in light of the need to compete with a Portfolio Manager devalued Euro • Growing fears about a housing bubble in China Suite 102-2168 Marine Drive West Vancouver, BC • The April 22 sinking of a BP oil drilling rig that had exploded and caught on fire V7V 1K3 in the Gulf of Mexico Tel: 604.921.9222 brent.woyat@raymondjames.ca • The May 6 “flash crash” in which U.S. markets plummeted in a matter of minutes without explanation Looking at these events, it’s tempting to ask what the next catastrophe will be. In fact, based on these last six months, historians may view this as “the calamity decade,” even though we’re only 5% into it. In talking to clients about how portfolios should be positioned in light of this, I like to point to the principles of Benjamin Graham, who is considered the father of value investing. Starting in 1926, Graham taught at Columbia University and wrote on investments for 30 years, bringing a new level of rigor to security analysis. His views and approach shaped a generation of money managers, among them Warren Buffett; he enrolled at Columbia with the explicit goal of studying under Graham and joined his firm after graduation. In fact, Buffett describes Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor, as the best book on investing ever written. Recently, financial journalist Jason Zweig unearthed a 1963 talk by Graham, which he posted on his website. Titled “Securities in an Insecure World,” Graham’s talk reminds us of guiding principles that investors always need to bear in mind. In chaotic times like those of late, I particularly focus on three of Graham’s principles.
  • 2. OceanForest Investment Partners Principle 1: Invest in stocks and bonds only so far as you can live with fluctuations in prices. The first principle is based on the idea that investors have to understand their own ability to live with volatility. Graham went on to say that he believed that by following sound policies, almost any investor should be able to eat well without losing any sleep—even in the insecure world of 1963, shortly after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Principle 2: The price you pay when you buy stocks is key. There are many factors that determine how investments perform over time, but few are more important than paying a reasonable price when you buy. After all, people who bought companies like Cisco, Intel, and Microsoft 10 years ago have lost half their money—not because these aren’t exceptional companies, but because the price they paid was too high. In his talk, Benjamin Graham said that investors should always have an allocation to stocks, bonds, and cash. The minimum level for stocks should be 25% and the maximum 75%. The amount should be determined by value considerations, owning more common stocks when the market seems low in relation to value and less when the market appears expensive. Principle 3: Long-term goals demand long-term thinking. Benjamin Graham’s student Warren Buffett has said that it only takes two things to make money—having a sound plan and sticking to it—and that of those two, it’s the sticking to it part that most investors struggle with. Markets like we’ve seen of late create understandable stress and can lead to short-term decisions. There was a recent article in the New York Times titled “Resisting the Urge to Sell Low” that talks about the cost to investors of acting impulsively. At the risk of repeating a time worn cliché, our experience bears out the view espoused by Graham and Buffett that the only way to invest successfully over time is to maintain discipline and a long-term focus—to have the right plan and then to stick to it. Hard as it can be at times, I’ve found the only approach to investing that works over time is to keep that long-term view, modifying portfolios as circumstances warrant but never losing sight of the fact that long-term goals demand long-term thinking. Portfolio Strategy As eluded to above, the markets are rarely in a state of equilibrium. Generating a steady rate of return with little volatility does not exist. On the contrary, the markets were highly volatile in the second quarter, mainly on the downside with the Canadian market down -6.17% and the U.S. market down -11.86%. Second quarter weakness also resulted in negative returns year-to-date for the major market indexes. As of June 30th the S&P/TSX Index was down -3.85% while the S&P 500 Index was down -7.57% since the end of 2009.
  • 3. OceanForest Investment Partners Global macro risks are higher than they were a few months ago due to the fiscal tightening in Europe, the UK, Japan and now the US economies. The crisis in Greece has prompted G20 leaders around the world to accelerate their austerity plans in an effort to reduce their runaway spending and exploding budget deficits. Governments have now embarked on a course of cutting public spending and raising taxes which has investors fearing we are entering a period of slower global economic growth. Stock prices have been correcting lower, discounting a lower rate of growth than was built into the markets just a few months ago. The sentiment has made a wide swing from being optimistic of a V-shaped recovery to being overly pessimistic that we are entering a double-dip recession. As growth slows, cyclical stocks in particular, which have led the recovery so far, appear overpriced and due for a decline. In the most recent strategy report from Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) their research highlights that certain sectors carry above average downside risk. For example, Materials, Capital Goods and Hotels, performed very well coming off the market bottom but are currently underperforming and look unattractive at this juncture in the economic cycle. Valuation levels are at the top of the range suggesting considerable downside risk is likely depending on how much of a slowdown we see around the world. On the positive side, there are several areas that still look attractive such as Consumer Staples, Telecom, Technology and Advertising. Defensively positioned sectors and groups will benefit from an economic slowdown as investors seek earnings stability, reliable dividend streams, and liquidity. Corporate balance sheets remain very healthy as strong cash flows have enabled companies to accumulate large cash positions to the point where U.S. non-financial companies have over $1.8 trillion in cash on their balance sheets, a 40- year high. This cash will either be used to make new investments, begin hiring new employees or will be returned to the shareholders by raising dividend payouts or buying back their own stock. While corporations have been getting their houses in order, unfortunately, governments have gone in the other direction with out-of-control spending. Turning to the technical picture, in August 2009 our tactical asset allocation model turned bullish and still remains in a positive mode even through the recent market correction that began in April. As long as our model stays positive we will maintain a bullish posture and our strategic equity weighting in the various investment mandates. Not until our tactical model turns bearish will we begin reducing the equity exposure down to the lower end of the range stated in our statement of investment policy. We are still giving the markets the benefit of the doubt that we are simply midway through a cyclical bull market that began at the March 2009 lows. The strong recovery bounce off of the bear market lows was clearly unsustainable and appears to be undergoing a correction. We saw a similar situation back in 2004 where the market experienced a major four month correction with equities trading in a sideways range before starting the second up leg in the bull market. Although the markets have had a pretty rough go of it lately, the returns in our investment mandates were respectable. During the quarter our most conservative Enhanced Income portfolio was down -0.10% but was up 2.24% year-to-date. The balanced Global Growth and Income portfolio was down -3.07% in the quarter but flat year-to-date, down -0.25%. The all equity Dividend Growth portfolio was down -4.52% in the quarter and -2.43% year-to-date.
  • 4. OceanForest Investment Partners Our U.S. Dollar portfolios fared worse than the Canadian Dollar portfolios. The Global Market Leaders Balanced mandate was down -5.75% in the quarter but managed to recover slightly with a return of -2.93% so far this year. The Global Market Leaders all equity portfolio was down -10.34% in the quarter and -7.56% year-to-date. In all of our portfolio mandates the sell-off in May caused most of the damage but we also saw another wave of selling in the last couple of weeks of June. During the quarter, there were several positions that held up well. The best performer was Biovail with a gain of almost 20% due to a merger announcement with Valeant Pharmaceutical out of the U.S. Cenovus Energy was up 8.85% as investors have begun to warm up to the stock after the spin-off from Encana last fall. We’ve noticed strong demand in the Telecom Sector with Telus being a beneficiary gaining 7.7%. There’s some renewed interest in the company’s new Optik TV and High Speed Internet services offering as a result of billions of dollars invested in the recent upgrade of their fiber optic network. Other notable winners in the quarter include China Mobile, up 6.7%, Encana, up 5.4%, Saputo, up 3.5% and George Weston, up 3.4%. All of our portfolios are designed to generate as much tax efficient income as possible in a low interest rate environment by investing in corporate bonds, preferred shares, dividend paying stocks, income trusts and REITs. In closing, let me reiterate my appreciation for the continuing opportunity to work together. As always, I welcome your calls and questions and would be happy to talk at any time. Sincerely, Brent Woyat, CIM, CMT Portfolio Manager OceanForest Investment Partners Statistics, factual data, and other information contained in this report were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that they are accurate or complete. This report is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. Raymond James Ltd., member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.