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The Carbon Trust

Bridging the Valley of Death in Low Carbon
Innovation



Dr Robert Trezona, Head of Research and Development

9 March 2009
The Carbon Trust is a private company
with a public good mission


  A not-for-dividend company set up in 2001 by UK
  government




  Our mission:
  To accelerate the move to a low carbon economy, by
  developing commercial low carbon technologies and helping
  organisations reduce their carbon emissions

  ÂŁ150m turnover; 180 employees
Low carbon entrepreneurship requires
 progress on four different “journeys”

             Proof of          Proof of          Proof of         Proof of        Proof of       Proof of
Technology   principle         concept           viability        scalability    value           quality
journey      (Basic            (Applied          (Early demon-    (Full demon-    (Marketable     (Warranted
             research)         research)         stration)        stration)      product)         product)



                                                             +
                                                                                 Grow
             1 or 2        Form venture         Bring in first     Recruit       operational     30+
Company      individuals   (or new unit)        outsider           specialists   staff           employees
journey      (sweat        (Friends &           (Angel or seed)    (Venture      (IPO,           (Profit)
             equity)       family)                                 Capital)      revenues)



             No                Markets          Market Field      Early adopt-   Rational        Technology
Market       interaction       identified       trial             ers & niches   economic        & market
             (Technology                                                         purchase        evolution
journey                        (Indifference)   (Recognition)     (Benefit
             push)                                                quantified)    (Market pull)   (Feedback)



                  General                        General          Specific        General         General
Regulation        Regulation                     Regulation       Regulation      Regulation      Regulation
                  neutral or                     neutral          positive        positive        neutral or
journey           negative                                                                        positive
The “valley of death” is caused by costs
increasing faster than risks decrease
INDICATIVE
                                                                                   “valley of death”
                                      100                                                                                                   1.2




                                                                                                                                                  Probability successful business not established
                                       90
                                                                                                                                            1
Indicative investment required [ÂŁm]




                                       80
                                                Level of risk
                                       70
                                                                                                                                            0.8
                                       60

                                       50                                                                                                   0.6
                                                           Chance of success
                                       40
                                                           per unit investment
                                                                                                                                            0.4
                                       30

                                       20
                                                        Required investment                                                                 0.2
                                       10

                                         0                                                                                                  0

                                                 Basic          Applied     Early Demo      Full Demo      Marketable   Warranted
                                                 Research       Research                                    product     product     Successfu
                                                 (Proof of      (Proof of     (Proof of     (Proof of       (Proof of   (Proof of   l business
                                                  principle)     concept)      viability)   scalability)    value)       quality)




                                      Source: Carbon Trust analysis; Mahler Ventures Ltd
Directed Research and Technology
Acceleration tackle these issues

   Public competitions for                                            Convening industry to
                                     “valley of death”
    technology venturing                                             address common issues

    “Directed                                                         “Technology
      Research”                                                         Acceleration”
    • Equity                                                          • Work across a
      investments into                                                  whole sector to
      R&D projects                                                      spread risk and
    • Identify                                                          leverage assets
      opportunity and                                                 • Use public funds
      select teams                                                      to demonstrate
    • Create                                                            key technologies
      commercial                                                      • Feed outputs
      vehicle and                                                       directly to policy
      capitalise it                                                     formation

      Basic         Applied     Early Demo    Full Demo      Marketable   Warranted
      Research      Research                                  product     product      Successfu
      (Proof of     (Proof of   (Proof of     (Proof of       (Proof of   (Proof of    l business
       principle)    concept)    viability)   scalability)    value)       quality)
The Carbon Trust
www.carbontrust.com

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Carbon Trust-Bridging the Valley of Death in Low Carbon Innovation - Robert Trezona Carbon Trust Stanford Mar909

  • 1. The Carbon Trust Bridging the Valley of Death in Low Carbon Innovation Dr Robert Trezona, Head of Research and Development 9 March 2009
  • 2. The Carbon Trust is a private company with a public good mission A not-for-dividend company set up in 2001 by UK government Our mission: To accelerate the move to a low carbon economy, by developing commercial low carbon technologies and helping organisations reduce their carbon emissions ÂŁ150m turnover; 180 employees
  • 3. Low carbon entrepreneurship requires progress on four different “journeys” Proof of Proof of Proof of Proof of Proof of Proof of Technology principle concept viability scalability value quality journey (Basic (Applied (Early demon- (Full demon- (Marketable (Warranted research) research) stration) stration) product) product) + Grow 1 or 2 Form venture Bring in first Recruit operational 30+ Company individuals (or new unit) outsider specialists staff employees journey (sweat (Friends & (Angel or seed) (Venture (IPO, (Profit) equity) family) Capital) revenues) No Markets Market Field Early adopt- Rational Technology Market interaction identified trial ers & niches economic & market (Technology purchase evolution journey (Indifference) (Recognition) (Benefit push) quantified) (Market pull) (Feedback) General General Specific General General Regulation Regulation Regulation Regulation Regulation Regulation neutral or neutral positive positive neutral or journey negative positive
  • 4. The “valley of death” is caused by costs increasing faster than risks decrease INDICATIVE “valley of death” 100 1.2 Probability successful business not established 90 1 Indicative investment required [ÂŁm] 80 Level of risk 70 0.8 60 50 0.6 Chance of success 40 per unit investment 0.4 30 20 Required investment 0.2 10 0 0 Basic Applied Early Demo Full Demo Marketable Warranted Research Research product product Successfu (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of l business principle) concept) viability) scalability) value) quality) Source: Carbon Trust analysis; Mahler Ventures Ltd
  • 5. Directed Research and Technology Acceleration tackle these issues Public competitions for Convening industry to “valley of death” technology venturing address common issues “Directed “Technology Research” Acceleration” • Equity • Work across a investments into whole sector to R&D projects spread risk and • Identify leverage assets opportunity and • Use public funds select teams to demonstrate • Create key technologies commercial • Feed outputs vehicle and directly to policy capitalise it formation Basic Applied Early Demo Full Demo Marketable Warranted Research Research product product Successfu (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of (Proof of l business principle) concept) viability) scalability) value) quality)