The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000

1. Work in Progress:
A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University

2. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013

3. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
7 original programs
DAE, EFG, ITI, LS,
ME, PR, PE; 1978
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013

4. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
AG
1986
HC
1990
AP, CF, IO
1991
7 original programs
DAE, EFG, ITI, LS,
ME, PR, PE; 1978
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013

5. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
AG
1986
HC
1990
AP, CF, IO
1991
IFM
1993
CH
1996
ED
2001
POL
2006
EEE
2007
DEV
2012
HE 2001?
LE 2002?
> 1,300
RAs & FRFs
7 original programs
DAE, EFG, ITI, LS,
ME, PR, PE; 1978
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013

6. y = 0.2307x3 - 1367x2 + 3E+06x - 2E+09
R² = 0.9997
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
22500
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NBER Working Papers: Cumulative 1978 to 2013
According to this “model,” the 50,000th NBER Working Paper will appear in January 2030.
But will it? Will the “model” change?

7. 0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mean Number of Programs Fraction with > 1 Program
Mean Number of Programs
Fraction with
> 1 program
NBER Programs per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014

8. 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NumProg PE PE with progs to 1993
NBER Programs per PE Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
Only programs existing by 1993
The NBER Working Paper series has become less specialized and more varied over time.

9. 1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Number of Authors
Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014

10. 1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Number of Authors PE LS EFG
Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014

11. 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5
Fraction NBER Authors per Working Paper
by Number of Authors: 2013
Note: Conditional on at least one NBER author per working paper (mean = 60.4%).

13. Work in Progress:
A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University