3. Sustainable Development
• Sustainability is a ‘direction’ not a fixed goal
– is development that meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs
– is focused on long term objectives
• Sustainable development integrates economic, social
and environmental objectives
– People are at the centre of sustainable
development
– they are the AGENTS FOR CHANGE
Brundtland Report 1987
4. Sustainable Development
The challenge facing the world today is not just about
redistribution of resources to ensure greater levels of social
equity, but also to reorganise the extraction, use and disposal of
those resources in order to ensure longer term survival of the
ecosphere which sustains life. This great challenge poses three
key questions:
• What does sustainability and in particular, sustainable
development mean in a South African and Tourism context?
• What is the relationship between inequality and unsustainability?
unsustainability?
• What are the relationships between human life and all life forms
and how has this relationship evolved over time?
5. 5 most NB docs of our time:
• The Challenge of Slums – UN Habitat
Report
• 1998 Human Development Report
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• Oil Depletion Analysis Centre reports on
Oil Peak
Series of slides taken from
paper by Swilling, M. 2007
6. Urbanization
• Approximately half the world’s population is now urban
• Urban areas are gaining an estimated 60 million people a year
– over a million a week
• Most of the increase in urbanization will occur in less
developed countries
Swilling, M. 2007
7. Future Urbanization
Most of the urbanization that will exist in 2030 has not
yet occurred. Urban pop. of developing nations will
double by 2030 at which time…
time
60% of the world’s people will be urbanites
Swilling, M. 2007
Source: York Times Almanac 2004
8. PLANET OF SLUMS
one billion
people worldwide
live in slums
One third of the total urban population!
6% of urban pop in developed countries live in slums 78% of
urban pop in the least developed
countries live in slums
The Challenge of Slums –
Kabira, Nairobi
UN-HABITAT Report
Swilling, M. 2007
9. 1998 Human Development
Report
Richest 20% of the world:
world:
• account for 86% of total consumption expenditure,
expenditure,
the poorest 20% account for 1.3%
….. and consume:
• 45% of all meat and fish, the poorest fifth 5%;
• 58% of total energy, the poorest fifth less than 4%
• 74% of all telephone lines, the poorest fifth 1.5%
• 84% of all paper, the poorest fifth 1.1%
• 84% of the world’s vehicles, the poorest fifth less
than 1%
Swilling, M. 2007
15. Stern Report
“Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around
the world – access to water, food production, health, and the
environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger,
water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms.
Using results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if
we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be
equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and
forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account,
the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.
In contrast, the costs of action – reducing green-
green-
house gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of
climate change – can be limited to around 1% of
…
global GDP each year.
16. urbanvill
Cape Town 2100 - Raise in Seawater Levels of 15m
Cape Town 2010 - Current Seawater Levels
Klapmunts Cove
Durbanville Bay
Stellenbergbaai
Table Island
Helderberg Punt
Sir Lowry’s Bay
Peninsula Island
Hawston Bay
18. Colin Campbell Prediction
(Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, http://www.oilpeak.net )
If Saudi Arabia has
OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS
peaked, the world
2004 Scenario
has peaked
30
25
Billion Barrels a year (Gb/a)
20
M.East
15
Other
10
Russia
5
Europe
US-48
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL
Swilling, M. 2007
19. Oil Price $ 70 per Barrel
- June 2007
Oil Price
60
50
Brent Crude $/b
40
30
20
10
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Swilling, M. 2007
20. Millenium Eco-Assessment
Eco-
1360 experts from 95 countries
• 60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosystems
examined are being degraded or used
unsustainably, including fresh water,
capture fisheries, air and water
purification, and the regulation of regional
and local climate, natural hazards and
pests. Costs of unsustainable resource use
are rising, but get displaced from one
group to another (in particular the poor)
and to future generations.
Swilling, M. 2007
21. Millenium Eco-Assessment
Eco-
• “The consumption of ecosystem services, which
is unsustainable in many cases, will continue to
grow as a consequence of a likely three- to six-
three- six-
fold increase in global GDP by 2050 even while
global population growth is expected to slow
and level off in mid-century. … An effective set
mid-
of responses to ensure the sustainable
management of ecosystems requires substantial
changes in institutions and governance,
economic policies and incentives, social and
behaviour factors, technology, and knowledge.”
(p.17)
Swilling, M. 2007
22. Deforestation
50% of the forests that originally covered the Earth have
been cleared - 36 million acres are destroyed each year
Swilling, M. 2007
Source: World Resources Institute
23. Desertification
Desertification threatens the livelihood
of over 1 billion people in more than 110 countries
Swilling, M. 2007
Source: United Nations
24. Loss of Biodiversity
More than 11,000 species
of animals and plants are
known to be threatened
with extinction –
a rate unmatched for
65 million years
Swilling, M. 2007
Source: Population Reference Bureau
25. Species Distribution
Species Distribution
180
160
140
120
100
Species
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
26. Species Distribution
Species Distribution
180
160
140
120
100
Species
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
27. Species Distribution
Species Distribution
180
160
140
120
100
Species
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
28. Dependence and
vulnerability
(WRI 2002-2004)
2002-
• Annual value of global agricultural
production = $1.3 trillion
• Percentage of global agricultural
lands showing soil degradation =
65%
• No. of people directly dependent on forests
for survival = 350 million
• Decline in global forest cover since
pre-
pre-agricultural times = 50%
Swilling, M. 2007
29. Dependence and
vulnerability
(WRI 2002-2004)
2002-
• No. of people dependent primarily on fish
for protein = 1 billion
• % of global fisheries overfished or
fished at their biological limit = 75%
• % of world population living in water-
water-
stressed river basins = 41%
• 20% of normal global river flow
extracted for human use & 60% of
major river basins are strongly or
moderately fragmented by dams
Swilling, M. 2007
30. GROWTH IS NOT EQUIVALENT TO DEVELOPMENT
THRESHOLD HYPOTHESIS :
For every society there seems to be a period in
which economic growth –conventionally
understood and measured- brings about an
improvement in the quality of life, but only up
to a point - the threshold point- beyond
which, if there is more economic growth, quality
of life may begin to deteriorate (M Max-Neef)
This hypothesis became robust as a
consequence of a number of country studies:
31. Economic Gravity Shifts to
Asia
GDP
BRICs Have a Larger US$GDP Than the G6
GDP (2003 US$bn) The Largest Economies in 2050
in Less Than 40 Years
(2003 US$bn)
50000
100,000
45000
By 2040:
BRICs
90,000
BRICS 40000
G6
80,000 overtake
2025: BRICs
35000
the G6
economies
70,000
over half as 30000
60,000 large as the G6
25000
50,000
20000
40,000
15000
30,000
10000
20,000
10,000 5000
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Ch US In Jpn Br Russ UK Ger Fr It
GS BRICs Model Projections. GS BRICs Model Projections.
32. Making sense of it all….
………….from footprinting……….
………to sustainability
61. Supply Chain Survey
Employ Equity Total BEE/E Aff. Procure HR Practice Labour Compl. BCEA CSI H&S Compl. Eco Issues
60.34% 33.82% 18.13% 73.24% 84.58% 64.34% 12.08% 43.31% 15.91%
Supplier Total
Em ploy Equity
100%
80%
Eco Issues Total BEE/E
60%
40%
20%
H&S Com pl. Aff. Procure
Supplier Score
0%
CSI HR Practice
BCEA Labour Com pl.
Spier Supply Chain Survey, 2006
62. Evolution of Corp. Change
1. Minimalist 2. Philanthropic
- Project specific
- Basic Stakeholder Support - Related to Specific issues relevant
- Addressing aspects that are generally to the particular organisation
HR orientated - Donations and gifts
- Tokenistic - Seeks to change
3. Encompassing 4. Social Activist
- Looks beyond the immediate business
stakeholder group to broader - Approach is the foundation of the
community business
- Embedded in company values and - Business is a catalyst for change
management style - Seeks to effect change on others
- Seeks to lead change
Table adapted from text in Locke, 2003.
Adapted from Locke, 2003
63. Should Tourism Businesses
Respond?
• No … “Big Science” will find the solution
• No … Government will provide the policy
framework and we will work to that
• No … we cant afford to change
• No … we will loose our market positions if
we focus on items which are not core
• No … it is contrary to good business
principles, this is a fad, it will pass
64. Should Tourism Businesses
Respond?
• Yes … “Big Science” may find the solution
but at a cost!
• Yes … Government may provide the policy
but will our clients accept this?
• Yes … we cant afford not to change
• Yes … we will loose our market positions if
we do not shift our focus
• Yes … we need to seek out the new
business principle or get left behind
65. A few of key principles
• What you do not measure, you cannot
change
• Always seek out the business case for a
shift
• Think longer term, beyond that current
budget cycle
• Consider partnerships and seek out those
businesses grappling with similar issues
66. The business case
There is a social case for enhancing the
development impact of business.
• Business remains business, but marginal
change of a massive sector could be
significant.
67. Corporate Citizens?
“In South Africa, critical issues posing sever threats to
development such as HIV/Aids, land redistribution,
government capacity to manage development processes,
housing, access to credit and education underlies the
reality that undertaking business in Southern Africa
demands a new approach to social responsibility. The
traditional idea that a philanthropic business foundation, or
even joint business approaches to development through
large collective donations, will suffice as a development
strategy, is rapidly becoming displaced. Corporate
Citizenship is about the integration of strategies into the
core business in a way that compliments national and civil
society development agendas, while adding value
simultaneously to shareholders and stakeholders.”
African Institute for Corporate Citizenship
68. A business case for change
• Social license to operate
• Enhanced corporate governance and staff morale
• Customer satisfaction and market appeal
• Government procurement, preferred partner,
recognition
• Enhancement of brand and unique selling point
• Access to responsible financing
• Minimisation of risk
• Keeping regulation at bay
• Saving costs
Tools & Tips 2005
69. Business Case for ED
Laundry 1 ED Laundry Saving
Dec 45 000 25 000
Jan 45 000 25 000
Feb 45 000 25 000
Mar 45 000 25 000
Apr 45 000 25 000
May 35 000 22 000
Jun 30 000 17 000
Jul 32 000 19 000
Aug 30 000 17 000
Sep 35 000 19 000
Oct 40 000 24 000
Nov 45 000 27 000
472 000 270 000 202 000
Set Up 75 000
Sundry 10 000
Total Cost 472 000 355 000 117 000
Jobs 2 7 5
Salary 1 700 2 000
Months 12 12
Com Flow 40 800 168 000 127 200
70. Sustainability Principles
• Sense of Justice:
– meeting fundamental human needs (subsistence, protection, affection,
understanding, participation, idleness, creativity, identity and freedom)
with appropriate satisfiers
– rights-based democratic governance and participation
rights-
• Sense of Limits:
– transition to renewable energy alternatives and energy efficiency
– zero waste via re-use of waste outputs as productive inputs
re-
– connectivity via sustainable transport, with a major focus on public
transport
– home building, sustainable construction materials and building methods
– sustainable water use and re-use of treated sewerage
re-
• Sense of Place:
– health, well-being and soulfulness
well-
– safe places within integrated communities (with special reference to
children and women)
DBSA/Sustainability Institute,2006
71. Sustainability Principles
• Sense of History:
– valuing cultural diversity, sense of community, participatory
culture, healing and memory
• Sense of Craft:
– growing the local economy, greater equity and fair trade
– local and sustainable food supplies, markets, & agricultural value
chains (especially organic food)
– human skills, knowledge development and continuous learning
• Sense of Nature:
– reverence for life, enhancing biodiversity and the preservation of
natural habitats
– working with rather than against eco-systems
eco-
DBSA/Sustainability Institute,2006
