Joined presentation by Bruno Gremez of CT&F and Bankmed at DIFC about impacts of oil developments on the region and the opportunities it offers Dubai as a trading hub.

1. Global oil glut
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016
Global Oil Supply
Global Oil Demand
Source: International Energy Agency

2. Emerging market demand is still increasing

3. Saudi Arabia’s policy paying off?

4. Iraq oil production
Iraq oil production has increased from 2,6 million b/d in 2011 to 4,1 million b/d in 2015
Source: US Energy International Administration

5. Iran oil production
Iran oil production has already increased from 2,8 million b/d in 2015 to 3,6 million b/d in April 2016

6. Global oil trading
The global oil trading industry has shown healthy profits driven by increased price volatility

7. Impact of low oil prices on the UAE
Local banks show reduced appetite to finance oil trading, following defaults and / or restructuring as a
result of a lack of discipline / un-hedged positions.

8. Main commodity trading hubs
§ Switzerland and Singapore are the main commodity (oil) trading hubs in resp. Europe and Asia;
§ Both have built up their centers of competence over several decades, and have reached some
critical mass;
§ Critical mass is the main driver to attract firms and professionals offering the ancillary services
needed by the trading industry: finance, insurance, legal advise, operations, inspection, etc;
§ There is a very large pool of experienced commodity trade (finance) professionals in both
markets;
§ Tax and legal frameworks are relatively attractive;
§ Commodity trading is a leveraged industry that needs dedicated specialized financing;
§ Local banks have developed a strong expertise: a significant number of Swiss and European
banks are actively facilitating and financing trading out of Switzerland; the largest Asian and
Singaporean banks are very active in commodity trade finance next to European banks present
locally.

9. Dubai: the next trading hub?
Strengths
• Ideal geographical loca2on between
Europe and Asia
• Great infrastructure (airport, office space,
residen2al space, ports, etc) and exis2ng
regulatory framework (DIFC, DMCC)
Weaknesses
• No local bank dedicated to commodity
trade finance; few interna2onal banks
present
• Developing, but s2ll limited, pool of
professionals with exper2se in the
industry
Opportuni>es
• Growing trading flows around the MENA
region (to/from Africa, Indian sub-
con>nent, etc)
• Developing a commodity trade center of
competence aQracts highly qualified
professionals
Threats
• Poli>cal instability of the region
• Dubai must remain cost-compe>>ve
between Switzerland and Singapore