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Using stochastic optimization to bring people together
The perfect conference
Brian Lange @ Strata San José 2017
who is this guy?
who is this guy?
who are these folks?
who are these folks?
Today
Today
- Case study: our work with Research
Corporation for Scientific Advancement (RCSA)
Today
- Case study: our work with Research
Corporation for Scientific Advancement (RCSA)
- Some high level explanation of the technique we
used (simulated annealing)
Today
- Case study: our work with Research
Corporation for Scientific Advancement (RCSA)
- Some high level explanation of the technique we
used (simulated annealing)
- Our vision of the role of a data scientist, and
how they interact with the people they’re
serving
Meet Richard*
*(bad) artist’s rendering
By Hbarrison (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Scialog
“Some of the goals of Scialog
conferences are to facilitate the
formation of new collaborative
teams, encourage sharing insights
and catalyze novel lines of research.”
Richard’s needs
Scialog Conferences
Solar Energy
Conversion
Molecules
Come to Life
Time Domain
Astronomy
2010 2011 2012 2015 2016
What’s different about Scialog
What’s different about Scialog
- big picture, cross disciplinary topics
What’s different about Scialog
- big picture, cross disciplinary topics
- small conferences (40–50 junior scientists,
10–15 senior. scientists)
What’s different about Scialog
- big picture, cross disciplinary topics
- small conferences (40–50 junior scientists,
10–15 senior. scientists)
- invite only
What’s different about Scialog
- big picture, cross disciplinary topics
- small conferences (40–50 junior scientists,
10–15 senior. scientists)
- invite only
- unconventional format
What’s different about Scialog
- big picture, cross disciplinary topics
- small conferences (40–50 junior scientists,
10–15 senior. scientists)
- invite only
- unconventional format
How well does this work?
Quantifying connection
Quantifying connection
Quantifying connection
Quantifying connection
Quantifying connection
before after
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- 118 new conversations
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- 118 new conversations
- 17 new collaborations
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- 118 new conversations
- 17 new collaborations
- 100% growth from pre-conference
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- 118 new conversations
- 17 new collaborations
- 100% growth from pre-conference
- 53.6% of attendees formed a new
collaboration with an attendee
measure improve
Mini Breakout Groups - round 1
A D G J
B E H K
C F I L
conference
attendees
Mini Breakout Groups - round 2
A
D G
J
B
E
H KC
F
I
L
Mini Breakout Groups - round 3
A
D
G
J
B
E
H
K
C
F
I
L
Are these good groups?
A
D
G
J
B
E
H
K
C
F
I
L
Is this a good group?
DJ F L
Is this a good group?
DJ F L
Is this a good group?
DJ F L
1
Is this a good group?
DJ F L
1
2
Is this a good group?
DJ F L
4
1
2
Is this a good group?
DJ F L
4
1
2
terribleness: 7
Is this a good group?
J F L
4
1
2
terribleness: 7
Is this a good group?
J F L
2
Is this a good group?
BJ F L
2
Is this a good group?
BJ F L
2
terribleness: 2
14778213400262135041705388361938994140625 possible configurations
14778213400262135041705388361938994140625 possible configurations
1.47 x 1040, or 14 duodecillion
quadrillions of years :(
terribleness
slope
intercept
optimization
DJ F L
4
1
2
terribleness: 7
0
1.75
3.5
5.25
7
JDFL
BJ F L
2
terribleness: 2
0
1.75
3.5
5.25
7
JDFL JBFL
1
BJ C L
4
terribleness: 6
0
1.75
3.5
5.25
7
JDFL JBFL JBCL
1
BJ C E
terribleness:1
0
1.75
3.5
5.25
7
JDFL JBFL JBCL JBCE
4 4
KJ C E
terribleness:8
0
2
4
6
8
JDFL JBFL JBCL JBCE JKCE
slope
intercept
terribleness
slope
intercept
terribleness
🤔
enter:
simulated annealing
simulated annealing
simulated annealing
a type of stochastic optimization
simulated annealing
a type of stochastic optimization
stochastic optimization
algorithm with randomness
introduced to avoid getting caught
in local minima
temperature: 100
A D G J
B E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 350
previous terribleness: 350
temperature: 1001. make a random “move” from current
state
A D G J
B E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 350
previous terribleness: 350
temperature: 100
A
D G JB
E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 380
previous terribleness: 350
1. make a random “move” from current
state
temperature: 100
A
D G JB
E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 380
previous terribleness: 350
1. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
temperature: 100
A
D G JB
E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 380
previous terribleness: 350
1. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
temperature: 100
A
D G JB
E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 380
previous terribleness: 350
1. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature
temperature: 1001. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature A
D G JB
E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 380
previous terribleness: 380
temperature: 1001. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature
5. Stop when temperature is too low.
Otherwise, reduce temperature and
repeat.
A
D G JB
E H K
C F I L
terribleness: 380
previous terribleness: 380
temperature: 901. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature
5. Stop when temperature is too low.
Otherwise, reduce temperature and
repeat.
A
D
G
JB
E H K
C F
I
L
terribleness: 243
previous terribleness: 380
temperature: 901. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature
5. Stop when temperature is too low.
Otherwise, reduce temperature and
repeat.
A
D
G
JB
E H K
C F
I
L
terribleness: 243
previous terribleness: 243
⏩ fast forward
temperature: 31. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature
5. Stop when temperature is too low.
Otherwise, reduce temperature and
repeat.
A
D
G
J
B
E HK
C
FI
L
terribleness: 63
previous terribleness: 63
temperature: 31. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature
5. Stop when temperature is too low.
Otherwise, reduce temperature and
repeat.
A
D
G
J
B
E
H
K
C
FI
L
terribleness: 194
previous terribleness: 63
temperature: 31. make a random “move” from current
state
2. check if the new state is better than the
previous
3. If it is, keep it and skip ahead.
4. If not, there’s a chance we’ll still keep it,
depending on the temperature
5. Stop when temperature is too low.
Otherwise, reduce temperature and
repeat.
A
D
G
J
B
E HK
C
FI
L
terribleness: 63
previous terribleness: 63
Not just for groups of things
Not just for groups of things
- circuit board designs
Not just for groups of things
- circuit board designs
- stock trading rules
Not just for groups of things
- circuit board designs
- stock trading rules
- anything which has a defined state, a “move” (aka
transition to another state), and a measure of goodness
very, very tweakable
very, very tweakable
- make “smarter-than-random” moves
very, very tweakable
- make “smarter-than-random” moves
- change the cooling function (reheat and cool)
very, very tweakable
- make “smarter-than-random” moves
- change the cooling function (reheat and cool)
- save best state so far and restart from it periodically
very, very tweakable
- make “smarter-than-random” moves
- change the cooling function (reheat and cool)
- save best state so far and restart from it periodically
- repeat many times from different random starting
states
very, very tweakable
- make “smarter-than-random” moves
- change the cooling function (reheat and cool)
- save best state so far and restart from it periodically
- repeat many times from different random starting
states
- etc…
DATA SCIENCE
PITFALL
WARNING
very, very tweakable
Icons by Andrea Novoa, Chris Kerr, and Ananth from The Noun Project
- make “smarter-than-random” moves
- change the cooling function (reheat and cool)
- save best state so far and restart from it periodically
- repeat many times from different random starting
states
- etc…
let’s talk more about
terribleness
client needs
client needs
- minimize how “connected” the
people in each group are
client needs
- minimize how “connected” the
people in each group are
- don’t want people to be in the
same group with somebody
twice
client needs
- minimize how “connected” the
people in each group are
- don’t want people to be in the
same group with somebody
twice
- etc…
client needs
- minimize how “connected” the
people in each group are
- don’t want people to be in the
same group with somebody
twice
- etc…
math/code
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
anticipate refining your solution
“what does Richard need?”
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
anticipate refining your solution
“these could be better”
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
anticipate refining your solution
“let’s tweak the optimization
technique”
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
anticipate refining your solution
“much better, what do
you think Richard?”
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
anticipate refining your solution
“pretty good, but
I don’t like ______”
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
anticipate refining your solution
“cool, let’s tweak the
objective function”
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
anticipate refining your solution
“these look great!”
generate ideas
build prototypeevaluation
iterative problem solving
“these are great!”
also an
optimization
algorithm of
sorts…
so, did it work?
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- In 30 out of 39 group discussions (77%), none of the people
in those groups had even heard of each other before
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- In 30 out of 39 group discussions (77%), none of the people
in those groups had even heard of each other before
- In all group discussions, no one had spoken or
collaborated with anyone else in their group
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- In 30 out of 39 group discussions (77%), none of the people
in those groups had even heard of each other before
- In all group discussions, no one had spoken or
collaborated with anyone else in their group
- On average, a group had 2.6 different disciplines (physics,
biology, etc)
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
- In 30 out of 39 group discussions (77%), none of the people
in those groups had even heard of each other before
- In all group discussions, no one had spoken or
collaborated with anyone else in their group
- On average, a group had 2.6 different disciplines (physics,
biology, etc)
- Each group had at least one theorist and one
experimentalist
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
__________ is important to the success of Scialog
0
7.5
15
22.5
30
Very Much Disagree Neutral Very Much Agree
Mini Breakouts
Regular Discussions
Scialog 2015: Molecules Come to Life
“We received 20 collaborative
proposals, the most ever
at a Scialog.”
further iterations
A
D
G
J
B
E HK
C
FI
L
Tissue mechanics and evolution
The physics of genetic networks
In vivo mechanics
Topic groups/preferences
Topic A
Topic B
Topic C
Topic groups/preferences
Desired connections
Nominated topic experts
how might this work at a bigger conference?
- survey including EVERYONE not tenable
- use latent sources like social media
- use RFID or other hardware to infer connections at
the conference
- use a survey with a representative sample and
similarity metrics to project preferences
how might this work at a bigger conference?
- different format
- separate opt-in discussion track
- rather than groups, make email introductions
what to learn from this
optimization isn’t just for
straightforward
mathematical problems
data science isn’t just for
straightforward
mathematical problems
a great data scientist
acts as a translator
iteration drives
improvement on both
methods and data
collection
if you can measure it,
you have the data
to actively improve it
.co@bjlange
thanks!
questions?
brian [at] datascope.co

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