The Only Metric That Matters By Josh Elman, Partner at Greylock Partners Tune into Josh Elman's keynote for the Branchout 2017 stage, and see if you're paying attention to the only mobile growth metric that truly matters.

1. The Only Metric That
Matters
Josh Elman
Partner
@JoshElman

2. We’re all here to build products that matter.

3. We want to make an impact
on our users’ lives.

4. We start with a launch. That
means zero users. Hopefully
they come (or we bring them).

5. We start hearing stories.
Anecdotes.
The plural of anecdote is data.

6. We have so much data now..
..it can be overwhelming

7. There are lots of data points…
“250 million PVs
in the last 30
days”
“Our D7 retention is
60%. D30 is 22%. Is that
good?”
“We have over
1 million
downloads”
“ We just topped
200,000 sign ups ”
“ We have a 50%
DAU/MAU ratio ”

8. So where
do you
start?

9. Just focus on one thing:
Are people using your product?

10. OK, but how can I tell?
Purpose: Why do they use your product?
Core Action: What is the key behavior?
Cycle: Do they use it at the frequency you
expect?
1
2
3
Key metric: How many times users
perform the core action on the expected
cycle

11. LinkedIn Circa 2005
Purpose
Find and be found.
Core Action & Cycle
Find: search for other members
2-3x a week
Be found: respond to inquiries
when you receive them 1-2x a
year

12. Yelp
Purpose
Find local businesses/services.
And review them.
Core Action & Cycle
Searchers: search for
businesses 2-3x a week.
Reviewers: write a new review
1x/month

13. Facebook
Purpose
Stay connected with friends.
Core Action & Cycle
Check in with friends and see
what they are up to.
Sharing 2-3x/day

14. Discord
Purpose
Connect and communicate with
friends around playing PC
games.
Core Action & Cycle
Open the app to see who wants
to play games and get on a live
channel.
3-4x/week (depends on how
often you play)

15. Airbnb
Purpose
Book a place to stay.
Core Action
Search and book trip options.
Cycle
3-5x / year

16. Your “core users” are your best users
1 Top of Mind: They come directly, not because of a
reminder, notification, or special deal
Track: % users with direct traffic / engagement
2 Recurring: Do they come back again and again
Track: % users who return weekly/monthly
3 Referring: Do they share it with others?
Track: k-factor, and % users who are referrers

17. Are people really, really
using your product?

18. Step 1: Analyze month over month usage
# days visited in month 1
%whovisitedNdaysinmonth2

19. 0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
1# 2# 3# 4# 5# 6# 7# 8# 9# 10# 11# 12# 13# 14# 15# 16# 17# 18# 19# 20# 21# 22# 23# 24# 25# 26# 27# 28# 29# 30# 31# 32#
Reten%on'Rate'based'on'#'%mes'used'in'month'1'
Step 2: Determine threshold for core
CoreCasualCold

20. Step 3: Understand activation buckets
Curious New
Core
Cold
Casual
40%
20%
40%
8%
10%
4%
50%
1%
90%
95%
40%

21. Step 4a: Find out why — from your data
Following more
than 30 accounts
1/3 - mutual follows
2/3 - one-way
follows

22. Step 4b: Find out why — talk to them
1) What prompted you to sign up and try out our product
in the first place?
2) What did not meet your expectations or what was
hard to figure out?
3) Why did you come back to give the product another
try?
4) What worked the second time that got you using it
more frequently?
Ask these questions:

23. Cherish your core users. They
are your superheroes.

24. I have a few core
users.
I want more!

25. Problem 1
Not enough people show up.

26. Clone your core users through virality
Word-of-mouth
Virality
Demonstration
Virality
Infectious
Virality

27. Problem 2
People sign up, but no one stays.

28. Onboard users all the way to the core.

29. Learn Flow: Teach your users your product as they
sign up. Take your time. They are there to learn. Don’t
rush it.
Teaches users
what the product
does
Shows a human
curated list of the
best content
Encourages new
users to engage
and create content

30. Welcome Week: If users don’t do it the first day,
nudge them to come back and keep going
Use email to educate new
users on the product.

31. Social Pressure: If friends are on the system, use
them to welcome, teach, and connect with the new
folks

32. Problem 3
People stay, but only for
a little while.

33. Go back to the core
analysis and extend it
over quarters.
Understanding churn is
critical to your long term
success.

34. One metric to rule them all..
How many people are really
using your product?

35. Thank you.
Josh Elman
@joshelman
@JoshElman
#branchout17
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