A record-setting Q4 retail Peak Season caused capacity crunches across freight markets. As supply chains recover from the holiday surge, the “commercial driver shortage” debate is trending once again. Get a preview of driver labor market insights from an upcoming research study. Presenters: Christina Bottis, CMO, Coyote Logistics Sean Fahey, SVP of Yield Management, Coyote Logistics Rob Sentz, Chief Innovation Officer, EMSI Tom Hodgins, VP of Operations, Centerline

1. DIVING INTO
THE DRIVER
SHORTAGE
Q22021 TRUCKLOAD
MARKET UPDATE

2. Panelists

3. Q1 2021 Performance To-Date
&
Q2 2021 Forecast

4. Sales to
Inventory Ratio
Census Bureau
Industrial
Production
Federal Reserve
Board
Imports
Bureau of Economic
Analysis
Consumption
Bureau of Economic
Analysis
Economic Indicators

5. Q1-to-Date & Q2 Forecast
Coyote Curve
(TL Spot Market Rates)
Cass Linehaul Index
(TL Contract Market Rates)
ACT U.S. Net Class 8 Tractor Orders
(Secondary Axis)
Cycle 3
Q3 2013 – Q1 2017
Cycle 1
Q2 2018 - Q1 2010
Cycle 2
Q1 2010 – Q3 2013
Cycle 5
Q1 2020 – Q1 2023 (f)
Cycle 4
Q1 2017 – Q1 2020
49.7%
Q4 Final
37.6%
as of 2/25
7.7%
as of 1/31

6. Spot Rates
Coyote Curve Index
• Peaked at 49.7% in Q4
(index record)
• Trending down to 37.6%
Q1-to-date
• Heading towards deflation
Q2 2021 Coyote Curve Forecast: Recap
Contract Rates
Cass Index
• Trending up to 0.3% through
Q4
• Y/Y inflationary in Q1 through
January (+7.7%), driven by
recent spot market activity
Truck Orders
ACT Research Class 8 TL Orders
• 2 consecutive quarters of Y/Y
inflation
• As these enter the market later
in 2021, will contribute to
deflationary spot market

7. The trucking labor market

8. Logistics is the
11th largest
employment
sector…

9. … but trucking
(especially
long haul) is
the most
advertised job
in America.

10. The logistics
industry
accounts for
3 of the top 10.
Despite being the 11th largest employment sector,
logistics (trucking in particular) posts more jobs
than any other job in America.

11. Logistics is one of the most important
employment sectors to our economy.
Over the past 2 years
(good year + bad year)
these 7 areas have shown
consistent demand and
growth in both postings &
openings.
They manifest talent
shortage.
1. Logistics
2. Healthcare
3. Tech
4. Business functions
5. Education
6. Skilled trades
7. Public safety
*looking at demand and growth in job postings

12. Truckers are aging out & not being replaced.
• ~ 57% of all
truckers are over 45
• 23% are over 55
45%
23%
32%
TRUCKERS AGE
Over 45 Over 55 Under 45

13. Warehousing
has far more
hires per job
posting.
Trucking must
post 3-9 ads
per hire.
Source: Emsi comparison of QWI and Job Postings Analytics

14. Obstacles to becoming a driver:
Supply/demand
labor dynamic
vs. wage growth
1
Difficult life on
the road
2
Lack of
pathways to
growth
3 Barriers to entry
4

15. The COVID-19
paradox: Furloughed workers
aren’t looking for
new work
1
Tons of government
benefits keep
people out of the
market
2
Kids at home are
making it hard for
many people to go
back to work
3
Fear: many people
don’t want to
engage in the labor
market
4
High unemployment
+
Low labor force
participation
+
Lots of job postings &
open positions

16. • Read additional truckload market resources
• Watch the Q2 webinar on demand
• Download the full Driver Shortage research study
Visit: resources.coyote.com