Using the SEI to Magnify the Voice of the Movie Audience BLA Global 2013
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Magnifying the
Voice of the
Movie Audience
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• There is a special movie review language, tonality and lexicon that needs to be
part of the social evaluation methodology.
• For both of these movies, “anticipatory net positive engagement trends” pre-
release were generally predictive of their post-release revenue performance.
• The volume weighted engagement of World War Z compared to Lone Ranger
was also in alignment with the relative post-release box revenues of the two
movies.
• For both movies’ Facebook fans, engagement with the films was highly
concentrated in the first week after the movie release. Both films lacked a
strong engagement driving impact from actors and characters. These factors
might suggest a lack of sticking-power for these special effects and action
story genre of films? It might be interesting and valuable to do a deeper
analysis of the leading-indicator role that Facebook fans might play in movie
success?
• Overall, there was significantly less engagement-driving content for the Lone
Ranger than World War Z and this might also indicate why the latter has had a
stronger box-office performance. The weaker moving power of movie content
for the Lone Ranger, might also suggest a deeper weakness of audience
boredom with the movie?
NOW SHOWING
THE DATA SPEAKS
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0
100
200
300
400
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700
WWZ TLR
Post Release Revenues and SEI Volume Weighted Engagement
Box Office $MM
SEI Engagement Wtd. Vol.000
Across multiple movies how well will SEI predict box office revenues? A detailed
analysis will help Paramount better assess Movie success rates
For World War Z and The Lone Ranger, the SEI has a strong
correlation to box-office reported revenues
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Trended Engagement for World War Z Versus The Lone Ranger
Social Media analysis can help Paramount make course corrections
in Marketing content and messaging to improve audience
engagement prior to launch
Ten weeks before launch, The Lone Ranger shows a downward trend……Recognizing the
tipping points in message content can lead to incremental pre-release marketing and
modifying trailers in order to improve post-release engagement and revenue.
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If traditional Sentiment metrics where used to assess World War
Z engagement, the results would be misleading
The SEI metric accurately identifies the positive engagement of the World War Z franchise
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Content Engagement Footprint
We have found that each movie has its own content engagement
footprint which identifies the conversations and messages that have
the greatest impact on audience engagement
Across many movie releases and within genre, are there footprint patterns that we can
identify which are highly associated with the movies success?
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Facebook Fans Trended Engagement
• How strong is the Movie’s customer base?
• How fast did the conversations about the movie erode?
• What sort of content can drive a greater sticking power towards customer engagement?
Our Social Media analytics can help Paramount assess the strength of
a new franchise by
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Potential Direction And Next Steps
Short term
• Capture timely audience reaction to trailers and pre-release marketing
in order to make mid-course promotion and marketing adjustments.
• Assess the amount of lead time prior to release where prevailing and
predictive engagement trends become relevant and predictive
Longer term
• Build a database and evaluate patterns, lifts and impacts from key
content which represent the best leading indicators of post-release
engagement and revenue success
• Leverage competitive knowledge to your advantage: what works and
what doesn’t. Develop and evaluate content engagement footprints
and repeatable patterns that differentiate successful and unsuccessful
films.
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Content Drivers for Lone Ranger
Facebook Fans
• Which conversations and messaging have the greatest impact to audiences
engagement?
• How does this differ by channel
• Which pre-lease activities will boost box office receipts?
1.82
1.89
0.003 0.010 0.022 0.016 0.009 0.005- - - - - - -
-
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
Lone Ranger Facebook Fans Engagement Content Drivers
10. Copyright 2013 Next Generation Marketing Insights & Bottom-Line Analytics LLC, All Rights Reserved
1.12
1.65
0.03 0.04 0.05 0.09
0.12
0.23
(0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00)
-
-
-
-
(0.20)
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Lone Ranger All Social Channels Engagement Content Drivers
Content Drivers for Lone Ranger All
Social Channels
• We can identify and prioritize the key content drivers for each individual social
channel.
• While the overall lift from the content was weak, the action and excitement of the
movie was its most important asset.
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Content Drivers for World War Z
Facebook Fans
• The trailer played a significantly more important role for World War Z. Facebook
Fans were more affected by the Reviews but the action-based excitement, not so
much.
1.27
1.82
0.02 0.04 0.13
0.16
0.25
0.30
(0.29)
(0.06)
- -
-
-
-
-
(0.50)
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
World War Z Facebook Fans Engagement Content Drivers
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Content Drivers for World War Z All
Social Channels
• For the broader social audience, the engagement of World War Z as an action
story and the role of the reviews and special effects, were major drivers of
engagement with the movie. The Trailer and Special Effects were also key. The
actors and characters did not play a central role in moving engagement.
0.40
1.90
0.03 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.12
0.23
0.35
0.62
(0.29) (0.06) (0.00) (0.00)
- - -
-
-
-
(0.50)
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
World War Z All Social Channels Engagement Content Drivers
13. Copyright 2013 Next Generation Marketing Insights & Bottom-Line Analytics LLC, All Rights Reserved
WWZ: awesome, great, surprising, good but
comments only showed moderate engagement
World War Z
• Action packed scenes appear to be the key driver of audience
discussions. Brad Pitt was the bonus.
• After the action, much discussion around the book and Max
Brooks vs. the movie with many recommending the book and
showing disappointment with the movie.
• While Brad Pitt drove conversations with his starring in the
movie and the production of it, audiences only showed a
modest engagement and excitement in those discussions.
• Zombies tended to drive the most interest and excitement
among the audiences leading to greater engagement.
– Discussions focused on the zombies' behavior: running, fighting,
attacking, etc. and describing them as nasty, scary, dirty, etc.
– This is an example of how the language of movies has very
different meanings than in other business contexts.
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TLR - an absence of lively chat
The Lone Ranger
• While Johnny Depp generated excitement about TLR, he was slightly controversial.
– Tonto being played by a non-Native American raised an issue, but not in a heated way. Comparisons
to the original Tonto played by Jay Silverheels were provided with the suggestion that a Native
American actor could have been used.
– The bird on his head was considered irrelevant and weird.
– One could consider that the character of Depp as portrayed, was out of line with expectations?
• Armie Hammer failed to spark fan interest and was overshadowed by Depp discussions,
with far fewer mentions with less engagement. The fact that Tonto overshadowed TLR
was, in fact, a reversal of original character roles and this could have played into some
of the negative feelings toward the movie.
• Comparisons were made to the original Lone Ranger series as there may have been
some disappointment with the latest version. Though these comments were not strong
they may have been a source of dissatisfaction among older patrons.
• A few people indicated selecting the movie Despicable Me as an alternative to TLR.
• Audience recommendations were rather tepid in expressive language that generally
generates excitement to see TLR. This might be an indication of general boredom.
• Modest references to Disney were made in a very neutral connotative manner that did
not seem to increase or decrease interest.