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Insights into the Consumer Journey
(A Structural Equation Modelling Approach)
Our Approach: Structural Equation Modelling
Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is an advanced statistical technique that allows us to understand
the causal and co-varying relationships that exist between metrics within a traditional sales funnel
concept. Using SEM, we are able to test a series a pre-defined hypotheses, some of which were based
on findings from a media effectiveness modelling project. These were:
1. TV has not been very effective in driving sales volume for Brand X – it might be that the TV
messages and recall do not cut through to awareness.
2. Digital media does not drive brand awareness for Brand X as well as overall offline and mass-media
3. Intrinsic (experiential) brand attributes drive familiarity for brand X. This is thought to be a key
factor affecting product usage and considered a gateway to new customer acquisition.
4. Extrinsic (externally perceived) product attributes drive purchase intent (consideration) for Brand X.
5. Brand consideration drives Likelihood to recommend to family and friends, an indicator of brand
loyalty; and is generally thought of as a key gateway to product purchase.
6. Positively engaged Earned social media comments operate lower down the sales funnel and are
more directly linked to purchase compared to paid social media adverts and banners. [extended
model not included in this deck].
Symbols used in SEM
SEM uses symbols to denote relationships between metrics.
(i.e. we have
survey data for
This is an
that may or
may not be
(a collection or
From Path to Structural Equation Model
SEM uses Path Diagrams to illustrate relationships between data metrics. The model below is a very simple
illustration of how Radio and Print media are causally connected to brand familiarity. This relationship is
‘mediated’ by brand awareness. Radio and Print are also inter-connected and vary together in similar patterns.
We call this a pattern of covariance between Radio and Print recall.
Introducing an unobserved metric converts a path model into a structural equation model. Here we
structurally link a latent (unobserved) variable that is made up of three survey based brand attributes to
The Sales Funnel Concept we modelled using SEM is a
representation of the customer journey
Data based on total sample (see appendix 2)
In this model we have
attempted to understand the
chain of transmission from
media message liking through
media communications recall,
awareness, familiarity and
measure of purchase intent
(consideration) and loyalty
(likelihood to recommend)
Consumer Journey Model
family & friends
TV msg 1
TV msg 3
TV msg 4
TV msg 5
TV msg 6
TV msg 2
0.14 0.41 0.20
0.87 0.84 0.86 0.83 0.85
0.79 0.82 0.72 0.78
Outdoor = Billboards, Posters and Taxi Rank advertising
Print = Magazines, newspapers, broadsheets, promo pamphlets
Sampling & Trial = Stokvels, Clinics, School sampling, sampling and school presentations
Model n = 3381 (Includes 2012, 2013 & 2014 Femcare Sample)
MODEL FIT RMSEA: 0.041 (Good)
Sales Funnel SEM: Consumer Journey
on the shelf
Good Quality Better Price
• TV message liking has been relatively weak in driving communication recall for TV across all campaigns.
– The two most recent TV campaigns (Messages 5 & 6) have been the least effective in driving communications recall
for TV. This is consistent with findings from MMM (econometrics).
– Overall TV’s recall has been weak in driving total media recall.
– This has been a common theme across both MMM and SEM and indicates brand X needs to improve the copy effect.
• Outdoor media is the strongest driver of total media recall.
• In-store merchandising activity, namely shelf advertising and stand-alone display drive s in-store recall and strong brand
recall. There is a co-variance [synergy] between shelf advertising and stand-alone display.
• Overall traditional media has been more effective in driving total media recall than digital media channels.
• Total media recall drives spontaneous brand awareness which drives product trial and usage (familiarity with brand X)
• Emotional brand attributes such as it 'keeps you drier', 'gentle on skin' and 'effectively absorbs fluid' are strongly associated
with brand familiarity.
• Brand Familiarity is a driver of purchase consideration for brand X. Brand X’s outward appeal (Extrinsic) in terms of
innovation, pack design and fashion drive purchase consideration. These factors are the gateway elements to purchase
consideration and purchase.
• There is a strong link [covariance] between total media recall and the salient ‘Extrinsic’ concept. This could due to the
inclusion of in-store advertising which focused on ensuring a presence on shelves with bright colours.
• Purchase consideration is a core driver of likelihood to recommend to family and friends, a key measure of loyalty. Another
important driver of ‘Likelihood to recommend’ is the concept of ‘Economy and Value’ which is largely driven by quality and
to a lesser degree perceptions of price. The ‘Economic’ concept is strongly linked to the Emotional concept.
Managing Partner, (EMEA)
Bottom Line Analytics Global
M: +44 7970 789 663