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Insights into the Customer Journey

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Modeling the Customer Journey insights using Structural Equation Modelling. This provides a battery of insights into the causal relationships that exist for Brand X's marketing eco-system.

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Insights into the Customer Journey

  1. 1. Insights into the Consumer Journey (A Structural Equation Modelling Approach)
  2. 2. Our Approach: Structural Equation Modelling Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is an advanced statistical technique that allows us to understand the causal and co-varying relationships that exist between metrics within a traditional sales funnel concept. Using SEM, we are able to test a series a pre-defined hypotheses, some of which were based on findings from a media effectiveness modelling project. These were: 1. TV has not been very effective in driving sales volume for Brand X – it might be that the TV messages and recall do not cut through to awareness. 2. Digital media does not drive brand awareness for Brand X as well as overall offline and mass-media channels. 3. Intrinsic (experiential) brand attributes drive familiarity for brand X. This is thought to be a key factor affecting product usage and considered a gateway to new customer acquisition. 4. Extrinsic (externally perceived) product attributes drive purchase intent (consideration) for Brand X. 5. Brand consideration drives Likelihood to recommend to family and friends, an indicator of brand loyalty; and is generally thought of as a key gateway to product purchase. 6. Positively engaged Earned social media comments operate lower down the sales funnel and are more directly linked to purchase compared to paid social media adverts and banners. [extended model not included in this deck]. 2
  3. 3. Symbols used in SEM SEM uses symbols to denote relationships between metrics. Observed Variable (i.e. we have survey data for this) Regression: Causal relationship Regression: Co-varying relationship This is an interaction that may or may not be synergistic Unobserved or “latent” Variable (a collection or cluster of observed variables with similar effects & influence) 3
  4. 4. Radio Communications Recall Newspaper Communications Recall Brand Awareness Familiarity From Path to Structural Equation Model SEM uses Path Diagrams to illustrate relationships between data metrics. The model below is a very simple illustration of how Radio and Print media are causally connected to brand familiarity. This relationship is ‘mediated’ by brand awareness. Radio and Print are also inter-connected and vary together in similar patterns. We call this a pattern of covariance between Radio and Print recall. Introducing an unobserved metric converts a path model into a structural equation model. Here we structurally link a latent (unobserved) variable that is made up of three survey based brand attributes to familiarity. Co-varying Causal Intrinsic brand attributes Cares for my skin Comforting Leaves skin fresh 4
  5. 5. The Sales Funnel Concept we modelled using SEM is a representation of the customer journey Creative Message Liking Media Communications Recall Spontaneous Brand Awareness Brand Familiarity Brand Purchase Consideration Data based on total sample (see appendix 2) In this model we have attempted to understand the chain of transmission from media message liking through media communications recall, awareness, familiarity and measure of purchase intent (consideration) and loyalty (likelihood to recommend) Consumer Journey Model Brand Experiential and Image and Attributes 5 Likelihood to Recommend to family & friends
  6. 6. SPONTANEOUS AWARENESS TV/CINEMA RADIO PRINT INTERNET DISPLAY OUTDOOR SAMPLING & TRIAL TV msg 1 TV msg 3 Message Liking/Activity BRAND FAMILIARITY PURCHASE CONSIDERATION LIKELIHOOD TO RECOMMEND TO FAMILY & FRIENDS TV msg 4 TV msg 5 TV msg 6 IN-STORE Kylie’s corner Total Media Recall Communications Recall Brand Awareness Protection I Trust Keep you drier Keep you smelling fresh Gentle on your skin Makes you feel more comfortable Designed for best Protection Has attractive Packs Suits your lifestyle Fashionable Brand TV msg 2 SOCIAL MEDIA MOBILE MXIT Brand Familiarity Brand Consideration Brand Recommendation 0.11 0.09 0.14 0.12 0.07 0.04 0.19 0.54 0.67 0.74 0.66 0.66 0.70 0.33 0.40 0.26 0.32 0.18 0.32 0.47 0.14 0.41 0.20 0.14 EMOTIONAL EXTRINSIC 0.87 0.84 0.86 0.83 0.85 0.79 0.82 0.72 0.78 Outdoor = Billboards, Posters and Taxi Rank advertising Print = Magazines, newspapers, broadsheets, promo pamphlets Sampling & Trial = Stokvels, Clinics, School sampling, sampling and school presentations 0.71 Model n = 3381 (Includes 2012, 2013 & 2014 Femcare Sample) MODEL FIT RMSEA: 0.041 (Good) Sales Funnel SEM: Consumer Journey In-store promotion Advertising on the shelf Stand alone display 0.30 0.13 0.43 Good Quality Better Price 0.20 ECONOMIC & VALUE 0.67 0.34 Effectively absorbs fluid 0.13 Always doing new things 0.85 0.66 0.62 0.88
  7. 7. Key Insights • TV message liking has been relatively weak in driving communication recall for TV across all campaigns. – The two most recent TV campaigns (Messages 5 & 6) have been the least effective in driving communications recall for TV. This is consistent with findings from MMM (econometrics). – Overall TV’s recall has been weak in driving total media recall. – This has been a common theme across both MMM and SEM and indicates brand X needs to improve the copy effect. • Outdoor media is the strongest driver of total media recall. • In-store merchandising activity, namely shelf advertising and stand-alone display drive s in-store recall and strong brand recall. There is a co-variance [synergy] between shelf advertising and stand-alone display. • Overall traditional media has been more effective in driving total media recall than digital media channels. • Total media recall drives spontaneous brand awareness which drives product trial and usage (familiarity with brand X) • Emotional brand attributes such as it 'keeps you drier', 'gentle on skin' and 'effectively absorbs fluid' are strongly associated with brand familiarity. 7
  8. 8. Key Insights • Brand Familiarity is a driver of purchase consideration for brand X. Brand X’s outward appeal (Extrinsic) in terms of innovation, pack design and fashion drive purchase consideration. These factors are the gateway elements to purchase consideration and purchase. • There is a strong link [covariance] between total media recall and the salient ‘Extrinsic’ concept. This could due to the inclusion of in-store advertising which focused on ensuring a presence on shelves with bright colours. • Purchase consideration is a core driver of likelihood to recommend to family and friends, a key measure of loyalty. Another important driver of ‘Likelihood to recommend’ is the concept of ‘Economy and Value’ which is largely driven by quality and to a lesser degree perceptions of price. The ‘Economic’ concept is strongly linked to the Emotional concept. 8
  9. 9. Masood Akhtar Managing Partner, (EMEA) Bottom Line Analytics Global E: ma@bottomlineanalytics.com M: +44 7970 789 663 www.bottomlineanalytics.com