1. Cul$va$ng
Success
in
Ethiopia:
The
contras$ng
stripe
rust
situa$ons
in
2010
and
2013
2010
2013
Kubsa
–
Devastated
by
stripe
rust
Digalu
-­‐
>5t/ha
crop
B.
Abeyo,
D.
Hodson,
B.
Hundie,
G.
Woldeab,
B.
Girma,
A.
Badebo,
Y.
Alemayehu,
T.
Jobe,
A.
Tegegn
and
W.
Denbel
Kakaba
-­‐
>6t/ha

2. PresentaBon
Outline
• Wheat
producBon
in
Ethiopia
• Recurrent
rust
epidemics
• In
2010,
Ethiopia
witnessed
the
worst
stripe
rust
epidemics
in
recent
history
• In
2013,
There
were
the
real
fears
of
another
major
stripe
rust
epidemic
-­‐
but
this
did
not
transpire
• Side
by
side
comparison
of
2010
vs
2013
for
some
key
factors
• Are
the
rust
/
wheat
investments
in
Ethiopia
paying
dividends?

3. Wheat
ProducBon
in
Ethiopia
v Major
staple
&
strategic
food
security
crop
v Largest
producer
in
SSA
v 1.7
million
ha
v 4
million
MT
(2013/14
forecast
CSA)
v 5
million
HHs
–
small-­‐scale
farmers
v AdaptaBon
v AlBtude:
1500
-­‐
2800
masl
v Mainly
rainfed
with
rain
fall:
≥
500
mm
v Temp:
15
-­‐
280C
v Wheat
in
field
somewhere
in
Ethiopia
throughout
the
year
Framers
field
around
Eteya,2013

4. Area
&
ProducBon
Trends
0.00
500,000.00
1,000,000.00
1,500,000.00
2,000,000.00
2,500,000.00
3,000,000.00
3,500,000.00
4,000,000.00
4,500,000.00
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Ethiopia
Wheat
Area
and
Produc$on
(1961-­‐2013)
Area
Harvested
(ha)
ProducBon
(tonnes)
Source:
FAOSTAT,
CSA

5. Recurrent
Rust
Epidemics:
A
key
constraint
for
Ethiopian
farmers
YEAR
DISEASE
CULTIVARS
GENE
1988
Stripe
Rust
Dashen
Yr9
1993
Stem
Rust
Enkoy
Sr36
2010
Stripe
Rust
Kubsa,
Galema
Yr27
2013
Stem
Rust
Digalu
SrTmp

6. 2010
Stripe
Rust
Epidemic
in
Ethiopia
v Kubsa
&
Galema’s
resistance
broke
due
to
a
Yr27
virulent
race
v Ethiopia
experienced
the
largest
stripe
rust
epidemic
in
recent
history
v Over
600,000
ha
of
wheat
affected
v An
esBmated
60
million
Ethiopian
Birr
(US$3.2
million)
were
spent
on
fungicides
v Large
producBon
losses
were
observed

7. 2010
2013
Extended
wet
seasons,
well
distributed
rains,
cool
temperatures
(=
happy
wheat
+
happy
stripe
rust
!)
June-­‐Sept
Rainfall
Anomalies
(green/blue
=
higher
than
normal
seasonal
rainfall)
The
Favourable
Environment
–
Both
2010
&
2013

8. Stripe
Rust
“Suitable
Days”
(Temp
>2
<21
˚C,
Precip
>
0)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Number
of
Days
Gondar:
Suitable
Days
avg
2010
2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Number
of
Days
Debre
Marcos:
Suitable
Days
avg
2010
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Number
of
Days
Addis:
Suitable
Days
avg
2010
2013
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Number
of
Days
Robe:
Suitable
Days
avg
2010
2013
Both
2010
&
2013:
Above
average
“suitable
days”
for
stripe
rust

9. IniBal
Outbreaks
• When
&
where
did
stripe
rust
first
appear?
2010:
Assasa
Plain,
August
(early
occurrence)
2013:
Assasa
Plain,
August
(early
occurrence)

10. IniBal
Outbreaks
• When
&
where
did
stripe
rust
first
appear?
2010:
Assasa
Plain,
August
(early
occurrence)
2013:
Assasa
Plain,
August
(early
occurrence)
Extremely
similar
wind
dispersal
paYerns
Aug-­‐Sept
2010
&
2013
Aug
wind
Sept
wind

11. Season
Outcomes:
2010
&
2013
2010
2013
Total
Survey
n
=
1084
fields
Total
Survey
n
=
1292
fields

12. Season
Outcomes:
2010
&
2013
2010
2013
Stripe
Rust
Hotspots
-­‐
From
Survey
Data
Total
Survey
n
=
1084
fields
Total
Survey
n
=
1292
fields

13. ContrasBng
Season
Outcomes:
2010
&
2013
2010
2013
600,000
ha
affected
3
regions
(Oromia,
Amhara,
SNNPR)
Pockets
of
stripe
rust
present
(Tigray
&
SNNPR)
58%
of
survey
sites
infected
(Total
survey
n=
1084)
27%
of
survey
sites
infected
(Total
survey
n=
1292)
>180,000
ha
sprayed
Amount
spent
on
fungicides
>60
million
Birr
(US$3.2
million)
C.
15,000-­‐20,000
ha
sprayed
Timely,
effecBve
fungicide
control
On-­‐farm
losses
60%
to
100%
Negligible
on-­‐farm
losses
Significant
na$onal
losses
(>10%
of
total
producBon)
A
record
wheat
harvest
forecast
(>4
Million
Mt)

14. PotenBal
ProducBon
Impacts
RelaBve
yield
gain
2010
&
2013:
•
compared
to
3
year
avg.
(2006-­‐09)
2010
2013
2010:
High
Yield
Depression
Zone
(%
yield
gain
<5%
[many
–ve])
2010:
Stripe
Rust
Hotspots
+
High
Yield
Depression
Zone
Source:
CSA,
2011,
2013

15. NaBonal
Cereal
Yield
Gains
vs
Previous
Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Teff
Barley
Wheat
Maize
Sorghum
2.77
5.03
0.66
15.51
13.67
%
y
i
e
l
d
G
a
i
n
2010
%
Yield
Gain
(vs
2009)
2010
%
Gain
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Teff
Barley
Wheat
Maize
Sorghum
11.09
5.49
12.18
5.39
11.49
%
y
i
e
l
d
g
a
i
n
2010
&
2013
%
Yield
Gain
(vs
previous
year)
2010
%
Gain
2013
%
Gain
All
cereals
–
except
wheat
–
performed
well
in
2010
All
cereals
–
especially
wheat
–
performed
well
in
2013
Source:
CSA,
2011,
2013

16. Influencing
Factors:
Resistant
CulBvars
S
/
MS
R
/
MR
Unknown
Known
CulBvars
–
On-­‐farm
Survey
Data
2010
2013

17. Influencing
Factors:
Resistant
CulBvars
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
S
R
Unknown
391
101
535
240
562
490
2010
2013
Number
of
surveyed
farmer
fields
reporBng
known
culBvars

18. CulBvar
Summary
• Between
2010
and
2013
there
were
dramaBc
shixs
from
yellow
rust
suscepBble
to
yellow
rust
resistance
• 2013/14:
CulBvar
Digalu
esBmated
to
be
grown
on
>500,000
ha
(approx.
30%
of
wheat
area)
R/MR
Unknown
S/MS
S/MS
Unknown
R/MR
EsBmates
of
Areas
Planted
(Yellow
rust
resistant
vs
suscepBble)
2010
2013

19. Other
ContribuBng
Factors
Factors
2010
2013
Farmer
Awareness
on
Fungicide
Use
LOW
HIGH
Fungicide
availability
No.
Or
limited
amount
in
reserve.
Yes.
Sa$sfactory
amount
in
reserve.
Informa$on
Exchange
Limited
amongst
stakeholders
Good
informa$on
exchange
Belg
(minor)
season
survey
NO
YES
Early
Main
Season
Survey
NO
YES
Farmer
Awareness
on
Rusts
NO
/
LIMITED
HIGH
/
AWARE
Early
Warning
System
NO
YES
Integrated
(mul$ple)
Stakeholder
Response
NO
/
LIMITED
YES
(EIAR,
MoA,
ATA,
Extension
Directorate,
CIMMYT,
FAO,
…..)

20. Lessons
learned
/
recommendaBons
Many
posiBve
lessons
were
learned
from
the
2010
epidemic
&
2013
season.
•
Strategic
recommendaBons:
– Farmer
/
extension
capacity
building
–
rust
idenBficaBon
and
control
– Need
a
strategic
fungicide
reserve
(registered
chemicals)
– Con$nued
&
strengthened
early
warning
systems
and
$mely
surveillance
– Con$nued
rapid
seed
mul$plica$on
&
promo$on
– Strengthened
pipeline
of
new
diverse
APR
sources
of
resistance
(+
ayenBon
to
other
diseases
e.g.,
Septoria)
– Crop
diversifica$on
–
break
wheat
monoculture

21. Conclusion
• 2013
was
a
high
risk
year
for
stripe
rust
• PosiBve
acBons,
post
2010
epidemic,
certainly
contributed
to
making
2013/14
a
record
wheat
producBon
year
for
Ethiopia.
Key
factors
were:
– Rapid
spread
of
rust
resistant
culBvars
that
dramaBcally
reduced
the
vulnerability
of
the
Ethiopian
wheat
crop
– Timely
and
coordinated
surveillance
efforts,
coupled
to
good
informa$on
exchange
amongst
different
stakeholders,
resulted
in
effec$ve
control
and
awareness
campaigns
that
targeted
emerging
stripe
rust
outbreaks
• Wheat
/
rust
investments
in
Ethiopia
are
paying
dividends!
• BUT,
no
room
for
complacency……..

22. ….Stem
Rust!!!
• Widespread
cul$va$on
of
Digalu
gave
vulnerability
to
stem
rust
• Incursion
of
race
TKTT_
(not
a
Ug99
race)
[analysis
CDL,
Minnesota,
GRRC,
Denmark]
• Breakdown
of
SrTmp
• Rapid
disease
development
:
first
detecBon
early
Oct
;
full
blown
epidemic
mid
Nov!
• Localized
epidemic
on
20-­‐40,000
ha
(10-­‐20%
of
total
wheat
area)
in
southern
Ethiopia
• 100%
crop
loss
in
worst
affected
areas

23. “Rust
never
sleeps”
-­‐
but
nor
do
Ethiopian
wheat
scien$sts!
The
commitment
to
improve
the
country’s
wheat
crop
con$nues
th
Digalu
crop
killed
by
stem
rust
Digalu
crop
sprayed
with
Tilt

24. Acknowledgements
• B&MGF
• USAIDEIAR
• EIAR
• DRRW
(Cornel
Uni.)
• EAAPP
(World
Bank)
• CIMMYT
• ICARDA
• MoA
• FAO
• ATA
• Seed
Enterprises
• USDA-­‐ARS
CDL
Mn
• GRRC,
Denmark
• Cambridge
University,
UK
• THE
FARMERS
OF
ETHIOPIA!