THE BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX INCREASES 1% IN JANUARY — INDEX 8% HIGHER THAN IN JANUARY 2011 Despite reduced demand and unseasonably mild weather across Europe for most of January, the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose 1% in the month as oil prices increased by $4 US Dollars. The possibility of military engagement should Iran attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz in response to international embargoes put upward pressure on oil prices.

1. Bord Gáis Energy Index
JANUARY 2012

2. Bord Gáis Energy Index
JANUARY 2012
THE BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX INCREASES 1% IN JANUARY
— INDEX 8% HIGHER THAN IN JANUARY 2011 —
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100) OVERALL SUMMARY:
Energy
12 Month
Rolling Average
Despite reduced demand and unseasonably
Index Graph
Data
31 October 2009 87.80
31 January 2009 92.10
Bord Gáis Energy Index
30 November 2009 87.15 12 Month Rolling Average mild weather across Europe for most of
180
28 February 2009 87.77
31 December 2009 88.29
31 March 2009
30 April 2009
76.86
77.63 31 January 2010 88.92 January, the Bord Gáis Energy Index rose
1% in the month as oil prices increased by
31 May 2009 84.37 28 February 2010 90.20
30 June 2009 90.81
31 March 2010 92.51
31 July 2009 88.62
31 August 2009
30 September 2009
88.35
85.76
30 April 2010
31 May 2010
95.31
97.49
$4 US Dollars. The possibility of military
31 October 2009 92.39
30 June 2010 99.22 engagement should Iran attempt to
140
30 November 2009 94.82
31 December 2009
31 January 2010
100.00
99.62
31 July 2010
31 August 2010
101.09
102.82
close the Straits of Hormuz in response
28 February 2010 103.17
30 September 2010 104.97 to international embargoes put upward
Points
31 March 2010 104.57
31 October 2010 106.66
30 April 2010
31 May 2010
111.22
110.49 30 November 2010 108.89 pressure on oil prices.
30 June 2010 111.64
31 December 2010 111.88
31 July 2010 111.05
31 August 2010 109.16 31 January 2011 114.76
100
30 September 2010 111.50 28 February 2011 117.91
31 October 2010 112.64
31 March 2011 121.41
30 November 2010 121.67
31 December 2010 135.86 30 April 2011 124.45
31 January 2011 134.21 31 May 2011 126.97
28 February 2011 140.96
30 June 2011 128.88
31 March 2011 146.51
30 April 2011 147.76 31 July 2011 131.18
31 May 2011 140.73 31 August 2011 133.64
60
30 June 2011 134.54
30 September 2011 135.59
31 July 2011 138.57
31 August 2011 138.69 31 October 2011 137.54
30 September 2011 134.89
Jan-09 31 November 2011
Apr-09 Jul-09 139.53
Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
31 October 2011 136.14
31 November 2011 143.88 31 December 2011 140.15
31 December 2011 143.22 31 January 2012 141.01
31 January 2012 144.43
1 Mth 1% 3 Mth 5% 12 Mth 8%
In January, uncertainty around the health of the global economy continued following the release of lower than expected Q4
GDP numbers for some major economies, reduced growth forecasts for 2012, and numerous ratings downgrades for many
European countries. Despite this, improved economic sentiment started to emerge tentatively as some major economies
appear to be producing more goods, jobs are being created and confidence is growing. This improved sentiment was
underpinned by comments from the ECB President indicating that there are now tentative signs that the euro zone economy
is stabilising and from the US Federal Reserve Chairman that the US economy is expanding moderately. This sentiment is
feeding through to oil prices.
Oil Index OIL
Oil prices continued to be supported by the
180
Oil Graph
Data
ongoing tensions between the West and
31 January 2009
28 February 2009
65.78
67.03 Iran over its nuclear programme. Following
the EU’s decision to ban oil imports from
31 March 2009 68.43
30 April 2009 70.72
Iran’s from 1 July 2012, there was increased
31 May 2009 85.34
30 June 2009 90.70
140
31 July 2009 92.57
31 August 2009
30 September 2009
89.31
86.74
speculation that Iran would retaliate by
31 October 2009 93.84
attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz,
Points
30 November 2009 96.36
31 December 2009
31 January 2010
100.00
94.62 an important transit point through which
approximately a fifth of the world’s daily oil
28 February 2010 104.90
31 March 2010 112.38
30 April 2010 121.16
requirement passes. The possibility of supply
100
31 May 2010 111.65
30 June 2010 112.54
31 July 2010
31 August 2010
110.19
108.17 v
disruptions of oil to the globe put upward
30 September 2010
31 October 2010
111.13
109.88 pressure on prices.
30 November 2010 121.18
Despite ongoing negotiations between
31 December 2010 130.36
31 January 2011 135.62
60 Greece and its investors and fears of a credit
28 February 2011 149.07
31 March 2011 152.09
30 April 2011 156.15
31 May 2011
30 June 2011
149.41
142.55 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 event if an agreement is not reached, in
31 July 2011
31 August 2011
149.27
146.57
general, economic releases in January were
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
30 September 2011
31 October 2011
140.51
144.47 Data Source: ICE positive. On top of the political tensions,
positive investor sentiment also supported
31 November 2011 151.05
31 December 2011 152.25
31 January 2012 155.87
oil prices as tentative signs of improving
1 Mth 2% 3 Mth 7% 12 Mth 15%
economic growth took shape. As a result, oil
price rose 2% in January.

3. Bord Gáis Energy Index
JANUARY 2012
Natural Gas Index
Natural
Gas Graph
250 NATURAL GAS
Data
31 January 2009 195.04
The January average Day-ahead gas price
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
156.23
99.24 was lower than its December equivalent
by 3%. Despite very cold weather at the
30 April 2009 92.78
31 May 2009
30 June 2009
31 July 2009
87.00
87.56
76.34
200 end of January across Ireland, Britain and
31 August 2009 69.43
30 September 2009
31 October 2009
61.72
77.55
continental Europe, temperatures during
Points
30 November 2009 83.21
the month were generally mild and gas
150
31 December 2009 100.00
demand was relatively low for the time of
31 January 2010 125.88
28 February 2010 114.44
the year.
31 March 2010 101.67
30 April 2010 106.04
31 May 2010 130.73
30 June 2010 145.29
31 July 2010 157.48
Low demand resulted in UK storage
100
31 August 2010 145.96
30 September 2010
31 October 2010
132.67
148.57 facilities being at around 73% full at the end
30 November 2010
31 December 2010
167.11
204.87 of January compared to 38% the previous
year. High storage levels after 4 months of
31 January 2011 188.31
28 February 2011 179.74
50
31 March 2011 194.03
30 April 2011
31 May 2011
181.39
184.99
winter put downward pressure on prices.
30 June 2011
31 July 2011
183.36
179.36
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Reduced gas demand was also seen in
31 August 2011
30 September 2011
172.82
180.07 *Index adjusted for currency movements. Europe as evidenced by data released by
Societe General, stating that European gas
31 October 2011 180.16
Data Source: Spectron Group
31 November 2011 191.53
31 December 2011 189.94
31 January 2012 184.35 demand slumped 9.5% in 2011.
1 Mth -3% 3 Mth 2% 12 Mth -2% Colder conditions toward the end of the
month caused an increase in storage
withdrawals and a spike in natural
gas prices.
Coal Index
COAL
260
European coal prices fell 8% in January. Low
Coal Graph
Data
31 January 2009
28 February 2009
102.58
93.02 demand for coal in Europe due to relatively
31 March 2009 82.80
mild winter weather (reducing demand
205
30 April 2009 78.58
for coal to generate electricity to produce
31 May 2009 76.19
30 June 2009 76.68
power to heat homes) and already high
31 July 2009 81.48
31 August 2009 84.15
30 September 2009 83.00
inventory stocks, as well as an oversupply
Points
31 October 2009 86.26
150
30 November 2009 88.54
31 December 2009
31 January 2010
100.00
105.77
of alternative for power generation such
28 February 2010
31 March 2010
95.28
95.51 as natural gas, put downward pressure
on prices. High wind levels in January,
30 April 2010 108.11
31 May 2010 125.06
particularly in Germany, also meant that
30 June 2010 132.03
95
31 July 2010 121.85
31 August 2010 123.28
30 September 2010
31 October 2010
121.29
121.83
power plants that run on coal and other
30 November 2010
31 December 2010
150.34
159.48
fossil fuels received less running time and
31 January 2011 148.31
stock piles of coal were not depleted.
40
28 February 2011 149.34
31 March 2011 153.91
30 April 2011
31 May 2011
148.29
145.75
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 In addition to reduced European demand,
lower Chinese and Indian buying as well
30 June 2011 144.90
31 July 2011 147.62
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
as projected negative economic growth in
31 August 2011 149.65
30 September 2011 156.20 Data Source: ICE
31 October 2011 145.04
31 November 2011
31 December 2011
142.82
145.65
Europe in 2012 also weighed on the market.
31 January 2012 134.66
Coal price did receive some support from a
1 Mth -8% 3 Mth -8% 12 Mth -9%
stronger euro versus the US Dollar (making
coal cheaper for European buyers and
potentially boosting demand), and higher
Electricity Index oil and German power prices.
Electricity 180 ELECTRICITY
Graph Data
31 January 2009 127.36
Irish wholesale electricity prices were 2%
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
117.38
89.56
lower in January compared to December.
30 April 2009
31 May 2009
88.58
82.33 Unseasonably mild weather for most of
the month and consistently high winds put
30 June 2009 91.74
31 July 2009
31 August 2009
30 September 2009
83.00
89.26
87.28
140 downward pressure on wholesale prices.
Points
31 October 2009 91.82
30 November 2009 93.65
31 December 2009
31 January 2010
100.00
105.32
High wind levels meant that the electricity
28 February 2010
31 March 2010
98.50
90.42 produced by more expensive thermal
100 plants was substituted with cheaper
30 April 2010 93.24
31 May 2010 105.19
30 June 2010 104.88
31 July 2010
31 August 2010
106.05
105.66
electricity from wind farms over extended
30 September 2010
31 October 2010
109.05
112.69 periods in January. The consistent nature of
the wind generation also meant that fossil
30 November 2010 115.75
31 December 2010 136.21
fuel generators were started less often
31 January 2011 123.78
60
28 February 2011 120.12
31 March 2011 129.24
30 April 2011
31 May 2011
127.27
118.10
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
which helped to keep wholesale prices low.
30 June 2011 112.46
31 July 2011 112.53
31 August 2011 118.86 Data Source: SEMO
30 September 2011 117.61
31 October 2011 114.14
31 November 2011 123.77
31 December 2011 119.63
31 January 2012 117.47
1 Mth -2% 3 Mth 0% 12 Mth -5%

4. Bord Gáis Energy Index
JANUARY 2012
FX Rates
31 January 2009
EUR/USD
1.283 31 January 2009
EUR/GBP
0.887 FX RATES
1.60
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
1.272
1.323
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
0.886
0.925
Increasing hopes that Greece and
30 April 2009 1.321 30 April 2009 0.894
31 May 2009 1.412 31 May 2009 0.874 its creditors were getting close to an
1.40
30 June 2009 1.405 30 June 2009 0.853
31 July 2009 1.424 31 July 2009 0.853 agreement in the latter part of January,
that would allow it to receive a second
31 August 2009 1.434 31 August 2009 0.881
30 September 2009 1.464 30 September 2009 0.914
31 October 2009 1.474 31 October 2009 0.896
round of international aid, stabilised the
1.20
30 November 2009
31 December 2009
1.498
1.433
30 November 2009
31 December 2009
0.913
0.888 euro and improved market sentiment
31 January 2010 1.389 31 January 2010 0.867
28 February 2010 1.360 28 February 2010 0.893 toward the region. This improved
1.00
31 March 2010 1.353
30 April 2010 1.327
31 March 2010
30 April 2010
0.891
0.868 sentiment was also reflected in what was
31 May 2010
30 June 2010
1.230
1.226
31 May 2010
30 June 2010
0.846
0.819
perceived to be successful debt sales by
31 July 2010 1.305 31 July 2010 0.831 European countries which resulted in
0.80
31 August 2010
30 September 2010
31 October 2010
1.269
1.362
1.392
31 August 2010
30 September 2010
0.827
0.866 falling European borrowing costs.
31 October 2010 0.869
Despite the euro hitting a 16 month
30 November 2010 1.304 30 November 2010 0.837
31 December 2010 1.337
0.60
31 December 2010 0.857
31 January 2011
28 February 2011
1.370
1.379
31 January 2011
28 February 2011
0.854
0.849
low of 1.27 versus the US Dollar on the
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
31 March 2011
30 April 2011
1.419
1.483
31 March 2011 0.883 16th of January following downgrade
announcements, the euro appreciated by
30 April 2011 0.888
31 May 2011 1.437
31 May 2011 0.874
30 June 2011 1.451
31 July 2011 1.438
30 June 2011
31 July 2011
0.903
0.875
1% in the month. Improved confidence in
31 August 2011
30 September 2011
1.441
1.345
31 August 2011 0.885
the prospects of global economic stability
1 Mth
31 October 2011 1%
1.395 3 31 October -6%0.8615 12 Mth -4%
Mth 2011
30 September 2011
0.860
EURUSD may have also encouraged investors to
31 November 2011 1.3446
0.8562
reverse some of the safe haven flows into
31 November 2011
31 December 2011 1.2961
1 Mth
31 January 2012 0%
1.3084 3 31Mth -4%
December 2011 0.8334
12 Mth -3% EURGBP
31 January 2012 0.8302 US Dollar denominated assets. The euro
was unchanged versus the Pound Sterling
in January.
MARkET OUTLOOk:
There are a number of variables at play which have the potential to increase or decrease commodity fuel prices in the
coming months. The outcome of the ongoing discussions between Greece and its bondholders on cutting the nation’s
debt burden has the potential to stabilise or destabilise the fragile European and global economy. Despite some positive
economic releases and improving investor sentiment, confidence is at this stage very tentative and will be influenced heavily
by releases which will provide further evidence about the true state of the global economy in the months ahead.
Continuing cold weather in continental Europe has the potential to deplete heavy stocks of coal and gas and this could put
some upward pressure on prices. Finally, Iran’s reaction to the embargoes being imposed and the West’s attitude toward
its nuclear programme has the potential to escalate tensions in a region that is vital to global oil supplies.
RE-wEIGHTING OF BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX:
Following the SEAI’s 2009 review of energy consumption in
Ireland, released in Q4 2010, there was a 9.3% drop in overall Oil 64.93%
energy consumption. The most notable drop of 1.39% was in oil
consumption in the form of gasoline and diesel. This reflects the
economic downturn experienced at the time. The share of natural Gas
gas and electricity increased by 0.63% and 0.57% respectively. An 13.52%
increase in the use of renewables and peat, at the expense of coal in
electricity generation was also observed. As a result the Bord Gáis
Energy Index has been reweighted to reflect the latest consumption Electricity Coal
data. This has had a minimal effect on the overall shape of the Index, 18.40% 3.16%
but may indicate future trends.
For more information please contact: Fleishman-Hillard — Aidan McLaughlin — 085 749 0484
Bord Gáis Energy — Christine Heffernan — 087 050 5555
Disclaimer:
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not be correct, current, accurate or complete. While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility
is accepted by or on behalf of Bord Gáis Eireann, the SEMO, ICE Futures Europe, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland
or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this report. No
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