GAS AND COAL PRICES INCREASE BUT A DROP IN OIL PRICES PUSH ENERGY INDEX DOWN 3% - INDEX 21% HIGHER THAN SEPTEMBER 2010 - The Bord Gáis Energy Index (BGEI) recorded an increase in the price of both gas and coal for the month of September, however, the overall Index fell 3% to 135 in September 2011, as fears of a second global recession saw the price of brent crude oil tumble $12 per barrel over the course of the month. However, the fall in oil prices was significantly offset in Europe by a 7% depreciation of the Euro versus the US Dollar, which resulted in a net 4% decline in oil prices in Euro terms. Despite the drop, the index is still 21% higher than it was in September 2010 when it stood at 111. Commenting on the Bord Gáis Energy Index for September, Michael Kelleher, Energy Trading Analyst at Bord Gáis Energy, said: “The threat of a global economic slowdown due to the Greek debt crisis, concerns around a number of European banking institutions and weak economic data recorded in the US, sparked the steady fall of oil prices in September. The Index will continue to be influenced by macro-economic issues and concerns of a second global recession in three years. Futures markets indicate the possibility of a further fall in oil prices over the coming months, which have averaged €111.50 in 2011 to date. Natural gas prices are likely to continue to rise during the cold winter as these prices are linked to oil prices from the preceding three to nine months. Cold weather may push up the cost of electricity due to increased demand.” The following are the key trends recorded for the month of September: Oil: The oil element of the Index was down 4% to 141. Oil fell steadily as fears of a second global economic slowdown escalated. Oil prices fell further following reports predicting Libyan oil production of 500,000 barrels per day by the end of October. The fall in oil prices was offset in Europe by a 7% depreciation of the Euro versus the US Dollar. Natural Gas: The natural gas element of the Index was up 4% to 180. The first half of the month saw prices continue to rise as high as 60p/therm as a result of the traditional September maintenance of fields, pipelines, Qatari LNG facilities and various other parts of the natural gas infrastructure. Unseasonably warm temperatures in the latter half of the month resulting in weaker demand caused a decline in natural gas prices to 46p/therm. Coal: The coal element of the Index was up 4% to 156. The market saw sporadic European demand for the commodity due to relatively high stock levels across the continent which was primarily being met by Colombian, Russian and US cargoes. Coal has now traded in a narrow $122 to $126 range for five straight months. Electricity: The electricity element of the Index was down 1% to 118. Electricity prices fell in September despite the increase in fuel prices, which were offset by an increase in wind output on the Irish

1. Bord Gáis Energy Index
SEPTEMBER 2011
G28968 BGE Energy Index Sep 2011 LK.indd 1 10/10/2011 10:48

2. Bord Gáis Energy Index
SEPTEMBER 2011
GAS AND COAL PRICES INCREASE BUT A DROP IN OIL PRICES PUSH
ENERGY INDEX DOWN 3%
- INDEX 21% HIGHER THAN SEPTEMBER 2010
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100) OVERALL SUMMARY:
The Bord Gáis energy index fell 3% to
Bord Gáis Energy Index 12 Month Rolling Average
180 135 in September finishing the month
below its 12 month rolling average for
the first time in 2 years.
140 Fears of a second global recession
in three years saw oil tumble $12 per
Points
barrel over the month.
100 However, the fall in prices was
significantly offset in Europe by a 7%
depreciation of the Euro versus the
60 US Dollar. This resulted in a net 4%
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 decline in oil prices in Euro terms.
1 Mth -3% 3 Mth 0% 12 Mth 21%
Similarly a 1% increase in UK gas prices translated to a 4% increase in Euro terms due to a weakening of
the Euro currency versus Sterling.
The Greek debt crisis, concerns around a number of European banking institutions and weak economic
data out of the US all contributed to fears of another global recession.
Oil Index OIL
Oil prices fell steadily during
180 September as fears of a second global
recession continued.
The EU authorities’ failure to take
140
decisive action to deal with the
Points
sovereign debt crisis in Greece and
weak economic data out of the US
100 pointed towards a second global
slowdown in three years.
Oil production in Libya restarted after
60 falling to almost zero in February
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
*Index adjusted for currency movements. when rebels began their assault
Data Source: ICE
on the Gaddafi regime. Reports
predicting production of 500k barrels
1 Mth -4% 3 Mth -1% 12 Mth 26%
per day by the end of October further
depressed oil prices as the threat of a
fall in demand loomed.
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3. Bord Gáis Energy Index
SEPTEMBER 2011
Natural Gas Index
NATURAL GAS
250
The traditional September
maintenance of fields, pipelines,
200 LNG infrastructure and various
other parts of the natural gas
Points
infrastructure in advance of the
150 winter peak demand pushed prices
higher in front half of the month.
This was followed by unseasonably
100
warm temperatures at the end of
the month pushing prices lower on
50 weak demand.
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: Spectron Group
The commodity traded as high as
60 p/therm and as low as 46 p/
1 Mth 4% 3 Mth -2% 12 Mth 18% therm during the month eventually
averaging 54 p/therm.
Coal Index
COAL
260
Coal prices remained relatively
stable in September. The commodity
205 has now traded in a narrow $122 to
$126 range for five straight months.
Points
150 September saw sporadic European
demand for the commodity due to
relatively high stock levels across the
95 continent which was primarily being
met by Colombian, Russian and US
40 cargoes.
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
1 Mth 4% 3 Mth 8% 12 Mth 29%
Electricity Index
ELECTRICITY
180
Electricity prices fell slightly in
September. This was despite the
increase in fuel prices which were
140 offset by an increase in wind output
on the Irish grid this month.
Points
This reduced the need for more
expensive thermal plant to meet
100 demand.
60
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
Data Source: SEMO
1 Mth -1% 3 Mth 5% 12 Mth 8%
G28968 BGE Energy Index Sep 2011 LK.indd 3 10/10/2011 10:48

4. Bord Gáis Energy Index
SEPTEMBER 2011
FX Rates
EURUSD EURGBP
FX RATES
1.60 The Euro closed September at $1.34,
its lowest level versus the US Dollar
1.40 since January. This off set some of
the fall in oil prices and all of the fall
1.20 in coal prices for Irish consumers.
The Euro finished the month at its
1.00
lowest level versus Sterling since
March making natural gas relatively
0.80 more expensive for Irish consumers.
0.60 The Bord Gáis Energy Index would
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
have fallen 7% in September, but due
to the fluctuations in the Euro versus
1 Mth -7% 3 Mth -7% 12 Mth -1% EURUSD both the US Dollar and Sterling, the
index fell only 3%.
1 Mth -3% 3 Mth -5% 12 Mth -1% EURGBP
MARKET OUTLOOK:
Oil futures markets indicate the possibility of a fall in oil prices over the coming months. Oil prices have
averaged $111.50 in 2011 to date. Natural gas prices in continental Europe for the coming winter are linked to
oil prices from the preceding 3 to 9 months. This opens the possibility of a rise in gas prices should another
cold winter outturn or a problem arise with the natural gas infrastructure in the UK. As the cold, dark winter
months approach, more inefficient thermal plant may be required to meet the higher electricity demand
levels, this may lead to an increase in prices over the coming months. The Bord Gáis Energy Index will also
be influenced by macro economic issues and the possibility of the world economy slipping into another
recession.
RE-WEIGHTING OF BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX:
Following the SEAI’s 2009 review of energy consumption in
Ireland, released in Q4 2010, there was a 9.3% drop in overall Oil 64.93%
energy consumption. The most notable drop of 1.39% was in oil
consumption in the form of gasoline and diesel. This reflects the
economic downturn experienced at the time. The share of natural Gas
gas and electricity increased by 0.63% and 0.57% respectively. 13.52%
An increase in the use of renewables and peat, at the expense of
coal in electricity generation was also observed. As a result the
Bord Gáis Energy Index has been reweighted to reflect the latest Electricity Coal
consumption data. This has had a minimal effect on the overall 18.40% 3.16%
shape of the Index, but may indicate future trends.
For more information please contact: Fleishman-Hillard - Aidan McLaughlin - 085 749 0484
Bord Gáis Energy - Christine Heffernan - 087 050 5555
Disclaimer:
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not be correct, current, accurate or complete. While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility
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or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this report. No
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