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The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (public edition)
1.
The
3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
2.
The Context: ASEAN grows
fast, large demand on energy The world economy is moving from a post-crisis bounce-back phase of the recovery to slower but Southeast Asia move faster – how does it affect global demand growth? Energy Efficiency is the most effective way of meeting future demand - but are the current plans effective enough? Coal and Natural gas production are greater than current consumption – but are they enough for future demand? Vietnam will join Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand dominate the regional energy future – but where will their policy decisions lead us? ©ACE, February 2011
3.
The 3rd Outlook: Energy
Efficiency as Alternative Scenario The 1st on 2007,The 2nd on 2009, The 3rd on 2011 Joint output by ACE, IEEJ, and National ESSPA Teams Two (2) Scenarios: 1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario Base on GDP Growth Targets of the 10 Member States 2. Alternative Policy Scenario Base on Energy Saving Goals and Action Plans of 10 Member States in primary energy demand and CO2 emissions ©ACE, February 2011
4.
Socio Assumption: GPD and
Population Growth Rate* Country GDP Pop Growth GDP Projections is Brunei Darussalam 2.6% 2.1% slightly lower than on Cambodia 6.9% 1.3% the previous outlook Indonesia 6.3% 1.1% due to global Lao PDR 7.5% 1.7% economic crisis, but Malaysia 5.0% 1.6% ASEAN keep going Myanmar 9.0% 1.7% above the world Philippines 4.9% 1.4% average Singapore 3.9% 0.7% Thailand 4.1% 0.3% Vietnam 7.5% 0.9% ASEAN 5.2% 1.1% *Source: 10 ASEAN Member States ©ACE, February 2011
5.
Oil Price Assumption: Base
on Japan CIF The world is facing the high oil price, double than today in 2030 ©ACE, February 2011
6.
Alternative Policy Scenario: 1.
EE&C Targets Brunei Darussalam 25% EI from 2005 level by 2030 Cambodia 10% TFEC all sector Indonesia 1%/year TFEC from BaU Lao PDR 10% TFEC all sector Malaysia 10% TFEC Industrial, Commercial and Residential from 2011 to 2030 1.39 ktoe TFEC Transportation by 2030 Myanmar 5% TPEC by 2020 and 8% by 2030 compare to BaU Improve 16% Energy Efficiency in all end-use Philippines 10% TFEC all sector Singapore 20% EI by 2020 and 35% by 2030 from 2005 level Cap 63 Mt-CO2 by 2020 Thailand 25% total energy by 2030 compare to BaU Vietnam 3%-5% TFEC by 2010 and 5%-8% by 2010-2015 ©ACE, February 2011
7.
Alternative Policy Scenario: 2.
RE and Biofuels Targets Brunei Darussalam 10 MV PV by 2030 No target Cambodia 1.5 MV PV, 87 kW Biomass, 500 kW Micro-hydro No target Indonesia Energy Mix by 2025: 5% Geothermal, 2.6% hydro, +5% biofuels 0.03% wind, 0.74% biomass Lao PDR Hydro project No target Malaysia By 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 5% for road transport MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal Solid Waste Myanmar 15%-20% RE in Electricity Generating 8% for road transport Philippines New by 2030: 1,500 MW Geothermal, 2,100 MW Displace 15% of diesel and Hydro, 950 MW, 71 MW PV, 102 MW Biomass 20% of gasoline Singapore 5% PV in Energy Mix No targets Thailand 6,329 MW of RE 12.2% for transport Vietnam By 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Hydro, 400 MW No targets Biomass ©ACE, February 2011
8.
Alternative Policy Scenario: 3.
Nuclear Energy Targets Brunei Darussalam No target Cambodia No target Indonesia 1.4% nuclear of energy mix by 2025 Lao PDR No target Malaysia 2,000 MW by 2023 Myanmar No target Philippines 2,000 MW by 2025 Singapore No target Thailand Develop 5,000 MW from 2020 to 2028 Vietnam 1,000 MW by 2020, increase to 10,1000 MW by 2030 ©ACE, February 2011
9.
Final Energy Consumption: By
Sector Grow at an annual rate of 4.4% from 2007 to 2030 reaching almost 1,018 MTOE in BaU, with the transport sector as the fasted, driven by the increasing per capita income. But, in APS, grow at a lower annual rate of 3.6% with the total potential saving will be around 17.2% ©ACE, February 2011
10.
Final Energy Consumption: By
Fuel Type Oil will remains as the most used fuel ≈ 45% share by 2030, both in BaU and APS. But, applying APS, there are 18.6% saving potential for oil, 20.3% coal, 17.4% electricity , and 12.6% natural gas. ©ACE, February 2011
11.
Primary Energy Supply: RE
shines, but Fossil Fuels stay dominant Coal keeps growing as the highest, driven by the demand increase in Industry and Power Generation, but Transport will brings Oil stay dominant. Geothermal rise in Indonesia and Philippines, hydropower in Great Mekong, and Nuclear in Thailand and Vietnam. APS can reduce 18.5% from BaU by 2030. ©ACE, February 2011
12.
Power Generation: Coal and
Gas will continue to form bulk of supply Projected to increase 4x by 2030 with Coal and Gas will continue as the backbone of regional electricity generation. Oil share will decrease significantly due to diversification program for alternative fuels and renewable portfolio standard implemented. ©ACE, February 2011
13.
CO2 Emission: High Growth,
ASEAN should reduce a lot High annual escalation of Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, driven the high projection CO2 emission growth (5.7% per year). Applying APS can reduce about 697 Mt-C, 24% lower than 895Mt-C in BaU. ©ACE, February 2011
14.
Energy Intensity: Increase regional
living standard Improvement in fuel mix where natural gas comes more dominant as the feedstock for power generation and improvements in energy efficiency, bring EI decrease almost 50% by 2030 (APS). Advanced economies with high living standards have relatively increase energy use per population to at 3.4% per year (BaU) ©ACE, February 2011
15.
Country Energy Share: Vietnam
will join dominate energy future The share of Indonesia’s primary energy supply is decreased during 1990 to 2007 due to the rapid increase of the requirement of Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. But by 2030, as experience and still projected to has high economic growth, Vietnam will join as dominant with annual growth rate of 6.3%. ©ACE, February 2011
16.
Energy Efficiency: Recent plans,
would make a difference but need more Energy saving goals set by the government of the 10 ASEAN Member States; energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy including biofuels and nuclear, would able to reduce final energy consumption. Effectively apply in Indonesia: reduce 25%, Thailand 22%, Malaysia 21% and Brunei 20%. ©ACE, February 2011
17.
Renewable Energy: Rise but
not fast enough Although the number of Others (covers mostly biomass use by the final sector and supply of renewable energy such as bio-fuels, wind, solar, etc)is keep rising, but it will have a slower growth rate of 1.7% per annum. By 2030, its predicted only 13.4% share in Total Primary Energy Consumption, compare 23.5% in 2007. ©ACE, February 2011
18.
Implications: Challenge facing energy
security As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals, primary energy consumption and CO2 emission (dominant oil, gas and coal) in region will increase three folds – increasing pressure on energy security and global environmental stability. If current levels of energy production do not increase – region will have to source out from outside. Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low emission technology, and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in Power Generation – reduce carbon intensity and contribute to energy security. ©ACE, February 2011
19.
Policy Recommendations: Regional stands
facing energy security Encourage more aggressive energy efficiency and conservation measures i.e modal shift in transportation sector, high efficient clean coal technology, CDM projects, etc. Formulating mechanisms/regulations to remove subsidies to fossil fuel energy and provision of incentives to encourage further development of renewable energy, hydrocarbon resource potential as well as nuclear energy. Establishing energy management systems and energy efficiency standards. Strengthening regional cooperation especially in sharing best practices in energy development and utilization. ©ACE, February 2011
20.
benisuryadi@aseanenergy.org
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