As presented at the Minnesota Desire2Learn regional User Forum, among other places.

1. Online Course
Completion Rates
Barry Dahl
Desire2Learn Community Manager

2. Desire2Learn Community

3. This Webinar A
• Completion Rates for
Online Courses F Our B
• What are the Grade?
expectations, and D C
why? Or
• How are we doing? Incomplete?

4. What’s the Buzz?

5. Weekly News Articles

6. CCRC Reports: Washington & Virginia
http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/Publication.asp?UID=872

7. CCRC Reports: Washington & Virginia
Washington State community and technical colleges in the fall of 2004.
Students were tracked for nearly five years, until the spring of 2009
“students were more likely to fail or withdraw from
online courses than from face-to-face courses”
“were slightly but significantly less likely to attain an
educational award or transfer to a four-year institution”
http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/Publication.asp?UID=872

8. Say What?
• “slightly but significantly less likely”
• Translation … “I’m really, really sure
that there is a very small difference.”

9. CCRC Makes Big Headlines
http://californiawatch.org/dailyreport/online-community-
college-students-more-likely-fail-withdraw-11581

10. CCRC Makes Big Headlines
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2011/07/19/study_finds_higher_dr
opout_rates_for_community_college_students_who_take_online_courses

11. Can’t Sleep? Read Some Comments
http://chronicle.com/article/Why-Are-So-Many-Students-Still/127584/

12. The Author Asks
“But isn't it time that we had an honest national conversation
about online learning? With countless studies
showing success rates in online courses of only
50 per cent—as opposed to 70-to-75 percent for
comparable face-to-face classes— isn't it time we asked
ourselves some serious questions? Such as: Should every
course be taught online? And should we allow every student—
or any student who wishes to—to take online courses?”

13. 1 of 126 Comments
• Online education will be big in America, because
that's what we do: we take sublime and
beautiful European classics and turn them into
pablum. We took Belgian ales and made Miller
Lite, we turned Neapolitan pizza into Dominoes,
Pasta became Spaghetti O's, and fresh French
baguettes became Wonder bread.
• We'll do the same with school, because that's
what we do.
http://chronicle.com/article/Why-Are-So-Many-Students-
Still/127584/#comment-210104173

14. Where’s the Data?

15. U of Central Florida
• Center for Distributed Learning
– On the average, fully online courses have
slightly lower success rates and higher
withdrawal rates than either their face-to-face
or Web-enhanced counterparts
– http://cdl.ucf.edu/research/rite/dl-impact-
evaluation/#Success

16. U. North Texas – Spring 2007
• Definitions make a difference:
• Completion: finished the course –
received a grade other than a W or I.
(A,B,C,D,F)
• Success: is defined as earning a grade of
A, B, or C for an undergraduate course.

17. U. North Texas – Spring 2007
Undergraduates (n=7,730)
Success 74%
online
Success 80%
on-campus
Completion 93%
online
Completion 95%
on-campus
0% 50% 100%

18. UIS (Springfield) Online Course Data
Completion %
Compare
Summer '07
To 96%
Spring '07
On Campus
Fall '06
Summer '06
Spring '06
Fall '05
90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%
http://online.uis.edu/info/completion.html

19. Bellevue CC Online Course Success
http://www.sbctc.edu/docs/data/stdt_success_retention_
in_online_courses_bcc.pdf

20. What are the
Expectations?

21. Expectations of Success Rates?
On-ground Success
25%
75%
A,B,C D,F,W

22. Expectations of Success Rates?
On-ground Success Online Success
Equal?
25% 25%
75% 75%
A,B,C D,F,W A,B,C D,F,W

23. Expectations of Success Rates?
On-ground Success Online Success
75%
WHY?
25%
75%
25%
A,B,C D,F,W A,B,C D,F,W

24. Why, indeed. For example…
• Do we expect that every math
instructor will have the same
success rates?

25. Why, indeed. For example…
• Do we expect that the
accounting program and the
art program will have the same
success rates?

26. Why, indeed. For example…
• Do we expect that the urban
community college and the
rural community college will
have the same success rates?

27. LSC – 3 yrs – Developmental Courses
Passing Grades: A,B,C
67.8%
70%
60.9%
65% 58.5%
60%
55%
50%
Online Day Night

28. Demographics Differences?
Gender On-Campus Gender Online
50% 68%
50%
32%
Male Female Male Female

29. More Differences?
On-Campus Ages Online Ages
35% 49%
65% 51%
24 & ↓ 25 & ↑ 24 & ↓ 25 & ↑

30. First-time Learners?
Each term, how many
students are sitting in
a F2F (traditional)
classroom for the very
first time?
• Est. < 1%

31. First-time Learners?
Each term, how many Each term, how many
students are sitting in online students are
a F2F (traditional) “sitting” in an online
classroom for the very classroom for the
first time? very first time?
• Est. < .01% • Est. >= 40%

32. Instructors?
• Do we expect that the new online
instructors will have the same
success rates as experienced
online instructors?

33. Typical “Learning Curve”
90% Success Rates – New Online Instructors
80%
Instructor 1
Intsructor 2
70% Instructor 3
60%
Term 1 Term 2 Term 3 Term 4 Term 5

34. Fair Comparison?
On-Ground Online
Success
Rates
= Success
Rates

35. Fair Comparison?
=

36. Fair Comparison?
Course
Withdrawal = Academic
Non-success

37. A Perspective from David Diaz
• “However, I believe that many online students
who drop a class may do so because it is the
right thing to do. In other words, because of the
requirements of school, work, and/or family life
in general, students can benefit more from a
class if they take it when they have enough time
to apply themselves to the class work.”
http://technologysource.org/article/online_drop_rates_revisited

38. A Perspective from David Diaz
• “Thus, by dropping the class, they may be
making a mature, well-informed decision that is
consistent with a learner with significant
academic and life experience. This explanation
would be consistent with their demographics
while calling into question the idea that these
students are academically unsuccessful or
possess inferior academic abilities.”
http://technologysource.org/article/online_drop_rates_revisited

39. What to do
About It?

40. Potential Good Practices
• To help improve completion/success rates, consider
the following:
– Required new student orientation
– Additional support mechanisms beyond the instructor
– Early intervention when they start falling behind
– Formalizing your expectations for online learners and
online faculty

41. More Potential Good Practices
• To help improve completion/success rates, consider
the following:
– Require interaction - no electronic correspondence
courses (Expectations)
– Mid-term course evaluations
– Shorter class lengths (8 wks or less)
– Provide better “consumer” information pre-enrollment
– Professional Development Opportunities

42. One Example
Shorter Course Lengths

43. Why Don’t Adult Students Persist?
• From the Maricopa CC System:
– 10% due to academic reasons such as course too
hard or too heavy a load.
– 65% due to life interruptions (includes the normal
things of family or job issues, illness, etc. etc.)
Source: Ron Bleed, CIO of Maricopa CC (retired)

44. Example of Life Interruption
Psychology Psychology Psychology 12 Weeks
Invested,
12 Credits
HumanitiesHumanities Humanities Paid For,
No Credits
Earned,
Biology Biology Biology
With Little
Incentive
History History History To Return
4 weeks 8 weeks 12 weeks

45. Alternate Outcome
12 Weeks
Invested,
Psychology
12 Credits
Paid For,
Humanities 9 Credits
Earned,
With Greater
Biology Incentive
To Return
History - No
4 weeks 8 weeks 12 weeks

46. Alternate Outcome #2
12 Weeks
Invested,
Psychology
12 Credits
Paid For,
Humanities 6 Credits
Earned,
With Much
Biology - No Incentive
To Return
History - No
4 weeks 8 weeks 12 weeks

47. LSC – FY2010 – All Online Courses
26.2% 3.00 2.93
30% 20.7% 2.90
2.80 2.75
20%
2.70
10% 2.60
2.50
0%
D,F,W GPA
8-week 16-week 8-week 16-week

48. A Final Thought
Focus on What’s
Important

49. Change the Perspective
Online Students
25%
75%
Successful Non-successful

50. Change the Perspective
Those who need Online Students
online learning
for access 25%
75% 40%
Successful Non-successful

51. Change the Perspective
Online Students
25%
40%
75%
Is this
more likely?
Successful Non-successful

52. Q&A
Online Course
Completion Rates
Barry Dahl
Desire2Learn Community Manager