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Evidence-Based Management

                What is it?
        Why do we need it?
 How does it look like in practice?

      PhD Consortium of the 7th International
      Conference of the Dutch HRM network
Evidence-Based Management
Postgraduate Course




         What is it?
         Where does it come from?
         Why do we need it?
         What is stopping us?
         How does is look like in practice?
Postgraduate Course




        1. Evidence based management:
                      What is it?
Four propositions
Postgraduate Course




       Research produced by management scholars could be useful to
          organizations

       Drawing on available evidence (including research produced by
          academics) is likely to improve decisions

       Managers and organizations do not appear to be strongly aware
          of nor use research findings

       We need to increase awareness of and access to research
          findings
What is EBMgt?
Postgraduate Course




         Evidence-based management is about making
         decisions through the conscientious, explicit,
         and judicious use of four sources of information:
         practitioner expertise and judgment, evidence
         from the local context, a critical evaluation of
         the best available research evidence, and the
         perspectives of those people who might be
         affected by the decision.

         (Briner, Denyer, Rousseau, 2009)
What is EBMgt?
Postgraduate Course




               The problem is that management is not as evidence-
                     based as it should be nor as it could be
What is EBMgt?
Postgraduate Course




           It is not a completely new idea – managers and
               organizations use evidence all the time
           EBMgt is different because it‟s about:
                 Increasing the types of evidence we use
                 Using it more thoughtfully and carefully
                      (conscientious, judicious, explicit)

           Its only purpose is to help us make better
               decisions through more and more systematic
               use of evidence
Who says it’s a problem?
Postgraduate Course




           People in many other fields (medicine, social
               work, criminology, politicians) say it‟s a
               problem in their fields
           Not everyone in management but some of
               people think it‟s a problem
                 Some academics and researchers
                 Some managers and organizations
                 Some professional associations
                 Some commentators and journalists
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Origins of EBMgt
Postgraduate Course



      Management not the only field where there are these
      concerns. What field is this?
               “a research-user gap”
               “practitioners do not read academic journals”
               “the findings of research into what is an effective intervention are
                not being translated into actual practice”
               “academics not practitioners are driving the research agenda”
               “the relevance, quality and applicability of research is
                questionable”
               “practice is being driven more by fads and fashions than
                research”
               “many practices are doing more harm than good”
               “the collective wisdom from research is being lost”
Evidence-Based Practice
Postgraduate Course




          1991        Medicine
          1998        Education
          1998        Probation service
          1999        Housing policy
          1999        Social care
          2000        Nursing
          2000        Criminal justice
          ????        Management?
Academic interest in EBMgt
Postgraduate Course



          Similar ideas around for a long time
          2003 – Systematic reviews of evidence
          2006 – Rousseau EBMgt Presidential Address and
          Pfeffer & Sutton book
          2007-2009 – Rousseau EBMgt Collaborative
          2008-2011 – Several conferences
          2011 – Center for Evidence-Based Management
          (CEBMa) in Amsterdam
          2011 – EBMgt Handbook
          But many researchers not interested at all in EBMgt
Manager & practitioner interest in EBMgt


   Some HRM and professional bodies express
    interest (SHRM, SIOP, VOV Learning Network)
   Some Universities running courses for
    practitioners (e.g., Amsterdam, Ghent)
   Some publications for practitioners
   But managers are:
     Used to working in a different way
     Under pressure to adopt fads and fashions
     Have high expectations of evidence
Managers used to working in a
         different way:

 Need to act quickly: Speed more
 important than accuracy
 Organizational politics
 Formal authority and hierarchies
 Over-emphasize experience
 Rewarded for getting things done not
 doing what works
Sometimes we are evidence-based

 Try to gather data and information
 Invest time and effort in trying to
 understand and apply it
 Question our and others‟ assumptions and
 logic
 Are sceptical about what appear to be fads
 Resist the temptation to act quickly
Sometimes we are not so
          evidence-based
 Act on gut feeling (though intuition can be
  important for some decisions)
 Copy other people who appear successful
  (benchmarking)
 Think there is one ideal way (best practice)
 Let the „solution‟ frame and define our „problem‟
  and create need (kitchen gadgets)
 Want to fit in and be as cool as everyone else
  (fashion)
Postgraduate Course




         2. Evidence based management:
                      Where does it come from?
Medicine: Founding fathers
Postgraduate Course




                      David Sackett                 Gordon Guyatt


                         McMaster University Medical School, Canada
Problem I: too much information
Postgraduate Course




    More than 1 million articles in 40.000 medical journals per
        year (= 1995; now probably more than 2 million). For a
        specialist to keep up this means reading 25 articles every
        day (for a GP more than 100!)


    Most of the new insights and treatment
        methods don‟t reach the target group
Problem II: persistent convictions
Postgraduate Course




                 if you’re
                                  breathe into a bag
               hyperventilating
Problem III: jumping to conclusions
Postgraduate Course




           people who have an        give them a drug that
           irregular heartbeat are          reduces the
           much more likely to die           number of
             of coronary disease          irregular beats
Postgraduate Course




             Examples of mechanistic reasoning
                       gone wrong:

       Oestrogen replacement therapy to reduce cardiac events and stroke
           in post-menopausal women.
       Treatment of measles with antibiotics.
       Rest for recovery.
       Placing babies on their fronts to prevent Sudden Infant Death
           Syndrome (SIDS).
       Debriefing after psychological trauma
Problem IV
Postgraduate Course




          David Sackett
               Half of what you learn in medical school will be
               shown to be either dead wrong or out-of-date
               within 5 years of your graduation; the trouble is that
               nobody can tell you which half.

               The most important thing to learn is how to learn
               on your own.

               (Remember that your teachers are as full of bullshit
               as your parents)
Evidence based decision
Postgraduate Course




      David Sackett
      “Good doctors use both individual clinical expertise and
      the best available external evidence, and neither alone is
      enough. Without clinical expertise, practice risks
      becoming tyrannized by evidence, for even excellent
      external evidence may be inapplicable to or inappropriate
      for an individual patient. Without current best
      evidence, practice risks becoming rapidly out of date, to
      the detriment of patients.”
Management: Founding Mother
Postgraduate Course
Management: Founding Fathers
Postgraduate Course




             Jeffrey Pfeffer   Robert Sutton
Postgraduate Course




         2. Evidence-based management:
                      Why do we need it?
EBMgt: some basic assumptions
Postgraduate Course




       Research produced by management scholars could be useful to
          organizations

       Drawing on available evidence (including research produced by
          academics) is likely to improve decisions

       Organizations do not appear to be strongly aware of nor use
          research findings

       EBMgt is a potentially useful way of thinking about how we can
          incorporate research evidence into decision-making
Postgraduate Course




                          Reason 1:
                  Errors and Biases of Human
                           Judgment
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course



     Seeing order in randomness
     Mental corner cutting
     Misinterpretation of incomplete data
     Halo effect
     False consensus effect             Confirmation bias
     Reinterpreting evidence            Authority bias
     Group think                        In-group bias
     Self serving bias                  Recall bias
     Sunk cost fallacy                  Anchoring bias
     Cognitive dissonance reduction     Inaccurate covariation detection
                                         Distortions due to plausibility
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




     Seeing order in randomness
     Mental corner cutting
     Misinterpretation of incomplete data
     Halo effect
                                         Confirmation bias
     False consensus effect
                                         Authority bias
     Reinterpreting evidence
                                         In-group bias
     Group think
                                         Recall bias
     Self serving bias
                                         Anchoring bias
     Sunk cost fallacy
                                         Inaccurate covariation detection
     Cognitive dissonance reduction
                                         Distortions due to plausibility
Seeing order in randomness
Postgraduate Course




          We are predisposed to see order, pattern and causal
          relations in the world.


          Patternicity: The tendency to find meaningful patterns in
          both meaningful and meaningless noise.
Seeing order in randomness
Postgraduate Course




   We are pattern seeking primates: association learning
Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London
Postgraduate Course
Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London
Postgraduate Course
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




    A Type I error or a false positive, is
        believing a pattern is real when it is not
        (finding a non existent pattern)


    A Type II error or a false negative, is
        not believing a pattern is real when it is
        (not recognizing a real pattern)
                                                           Dr. Michael Shermer
                                                     (Director of the Skeptics Society)
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




          A Type I error or a false positive: believe that the
              rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is
              just the wind (low cost)
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




        A Type II error or a false negative: believe that the
            rustle in the grass is just the wind when it is a
            dangerous predator (high cost)
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




                      Pattern detection problem

       Assessing the difference between a Type I and
       Type II error is highly problematic (especially in
       split second „life and death‟ situations), so the
       default position is to assume
       all patterns are real.
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




           Jennifer Whitson, University of Texas Austin, corporate environments
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




              Erroneous beliefs plaque both experienced
         professionals and less informed laypeople alike.




                      stress           peptic ulcer
Oct 2005
        Peptic ulcer – an infectious disease!

This year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine goes to Barry Marshall and Robin
Warren, who with tenacity and a prepared mind challenged prevailing dogmas. By
using technologies generally available (fibre endoscopy, silver staining of
histological sections and culture techniques for microaerophilic bacteria), they
made an irrefutable case that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori is causing disease.
By culturing the bacteria they made them amenable to scientific study.


In 1982, when this bacterium was discovered by Marshall and Warren, stress and
lifestyle were considered the major causes of peptic ulcer disease. It is now

firmly established that Helicobacter pylori
causes more then 90% of duodenal ulcers.
The   link    between   Helicobacter   pylori
infection and peptic ulcer disease has been
established   through   studies   of   human
volunteers, antibiotic treatment studies and
epidemiological studies.
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




        Doctors, teachers, lawyers and managers hold many
          erroneous beliefs, not because they are ignorant or
      stupid, but because they seem to be the most sensible
           conclusion consistent with the available evidence.


         They hold such beliefs because they seem to be the
    irresistible products of their own professional experience.

       They are the products, not of irrationality, but of flawed
                               rationality
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course




          Managers seem to be extremely good at generating
              ideas, theories, and explanations that have the ring of
              plausibility. They may be relatively
              deficient, however, in evaluating and testing those
              ideas once they are formed.
          This requires that we think critically about
              experience, question our assumptions, and challenge
              what we think we know

          (Show me the evidence!)
Postgraduate Course




           3. Evidence-based management:
                      What is stopping us?
Quick fixes (1)
Postgraduate Course




    What is the quick fix? A „solution‟ which
              Focuses on style and presentation not content
              Is not evaluated
              Is always slower than we hoped
              Usually doesn‟t work
              Is followed by another quick fix
              Everybody forgets and becomes subject to
               organizational amnesia
Quick fixes (2)
Postgraduate Course



          So why do we do quick fixes?

                     Can be career-enhancing for managers
                      (e.g., issue selling, kick-ass CEOs)
                     Speed is often valued over accuracy
                     Heavily sold and marketed
                     Are we all looking for quick and easy
                      solutions?

          So who needs or wants academic research?
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Management Fads (1)
Postgraduate Course




          The nearly-forgotten fads
                     Scientific Management/Taylorism
                     Business Process Reengineering
                     Management by results
                     Excellence
                     Total Quality Management
                     Learning Organizations
                     Knowledge Management
Management Fads (2)
Postgraduate Course


          The fads that haven‟t been forgotten (yet)
                     Talent management
                     Management development
                     Executive coaching
                     Emotional intelligence
                     Employee engagement
                     Myers Briggs Type Indicator
                     Belbin Team Roles
          General concern about the destructive impact of fads
          from both practitioners and researchers
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*
       FADS SEEM TO BE ATTRACTIVE,
       COMPELLING AND IRRESISTIBLE

   Promise to deliver a lot and fast
   Appear simple
   New and shiny
   Will make everything alright and help contain
    anxieties around intractable problems
   Help user feel effective and cutting edge
   Bits of some fads may work in some contexts

So who needs or wants academic research?

*Evidence-based management not a fad!
•78
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dDwtNzI3




           •80
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Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Postgraduate Course



     Seeing order in randomness
     Mental corner cutting
     Misinterpretation of incomplete data
     Halo effect
     False consensus effect            Confirmation bias
     Reinterpreting evidence           Authority bias
     Group think                       In-group bias
                                        Recall bias
                                        Anchoring bias
                                        Inaccurate covariation detection
                                        Distortions due to plausibility
Under pressure to adopt fads
Postgraduate Course




         “And there we see the power of any big managerial
         idea (or fad). It may be smart, like quality, or
         stupid, like conglomeration. Either way, if everybody's
         doing it, the pressure to do it too is immense. If it turns
         out to be smart, great. If it turns out to be
         stupid, well, you were in good company and most likely
         ended up no worse off than your competitors. Your
         company's board consists mostly of CEOs who were
         probably doing it at their companies. How mad can they
         get?
Under pressure to adopt fads
Postgraduate Course




         The true value of conventional management wisdom is
         not that it's wise or dumb, but that it's conventional. It
         makes one of the hardest jobs in the world, managing
         an organization, a little easier. By following it, managers
         everywhere see a way to drag their sorry behinds
         through another quarter without getting fired. And isn't
         that, really, what it's all about?”


         (Colvin, 2004, Fortune)
Postgraduate Course




         4. Evidence based management:
        How does it look like in practice?
Four sources
Postgraduate Course
Postgraduate Course




                      JAMA, 1992
Push vs Pull
Postgraduate Course




           Push: teaching (management) principles
           based upon a convergent body of
           research and telling students what to do.

           Pull: teaching (managers) how to
           find, appraise and apply the outcome of
           research (evidence) by themselves
The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP
Postgraduate Course




        1. Formulate an answerable question

        2. Search for the best available evidence

        3. Critically appraise the evidence

        4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial
             expertise and organisational concerns and apply

        5. Monitor the outcome
The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP
Postgraduate Course




        1.      Formulate an answerable question
        2. Search for the best available evidence

        3. Critically appraise the evidence

        4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial
             expertise and organisational concerns and apply

        5. Monitor the outcome
Answerable question
Postgraduate Course




          I am a consultant, my client a large health-care
          organization. The board of directors has plans for a
          merger with a smaller healthcare organization.
          However, it‟s been said that the organizational culture
          differs widely between the two organizations. The board
          want‟s to know if this can impede a successful outcome.
Answerable question: PICO(C)
Postgraduate Course




         P = Population or problem

         I = Intervention or successfactor

         C = Comparison

         O = Outcome

         C = Context
Answerable question: PICOC
Postgraduate Course




      P: What kind of Population are we talking about? Middle managers,
           back-office employees, medical staff, clerical staff?


      O: What kind of Outcome are we aiming for? Employee productivity,
           return on investment, profit margin, competitive position, innovation
           power, market share, customer satisfaction?


      P/C: And how is the assumed cultural difference assessed? Is it the
           personal view of some managers or is it measured by a validated
           instrument?
The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP
Postgraduate Course




        1. Formulate an answerable question

        2.    Search for the best available evidence
        3. Critically appraise the evidence

        4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial
             expertise and organisational concerns and apply

        5. Monitor the outcome
Where do we search?
Postgraduate Course
Where do we search?
•Postgraduate School
The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP
Postgraduate Course




        1. Formulate an answerable question

        2. Search for the best available evidence

        3. Critically appraise the evidence
        4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial
             expertise and organisational concerns and apply

        5. Monitor the outcome
Critical appraisal
Postgraduate Course




           How to read a research article?
Critical appraisal
Postgraduate Course




              1. Study designs

              2. Levels of evidence

              3. Bias / confounding

              4. Effect sizes

              5. External validity
Research designs
Postgraduate Course




              Which study for which question?




                The “best” evidence depends on the question type !
Levels of evidence
Postgraduate Course
The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP
Postgraduate Course




        1. Formulate an answerable question

        2. Search for the best available evidence

        3. Critically appraise the evidence

        4. Integrate the evidence with your
             managerial expertise and organisational
             concerns and apply
        5. Monitor the outcome
Organization concerns
Postgraduate Course



          Always ask yourself to what extent the evidence
                  is applicable in your situation:

         1. Is your organization / division / population so different from
            those in the study that its results cannot apply?

         2. How relevant is the study to what you are seeking to
            understand or decide?

         3. What are your organization‟s potential benefits and harms from
            the intervention?

         4. Is the intervention feasible in your setting?
The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP
Postgraduate Course




        1. Formulate an answerable question

        2. Search for the best available evidence

        3. Critically appraise the evidence

        4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial
             expertise and organisational concerns and apply

        5.    Monitor the outcome
Monitor the outcome
Postgraduate Course




         posttest?
         pretest?
         control group?
Do a trial!
Postgraduate Course
Postgraduate Course




             (*). Why should academics be
                  interested in EBMgt?
Postgraduate Course




      (5). Evidence based management:
                       What can you do
                      as a PhD student?
Barriers
Postgraduate Course
Barriers
Postgraduate Course




                      Best available evidence
                                =
                        systematic reviews
Postgraduate Course
Postgraduate Course
Postgraduate Course
Postgraduate Course




                      Better than a single study:
                          a replication study
                Better than a replication study:
              a systematic review / meta analysis

        If there were 100 RCT‟s, 99 of which gave a „negative‟
        result (where, say, the new intervention appeared to be
        harmful), while one had a „positive‟ result (were the
        intervention appeared helpful), it would obviously be a
        mistake to consider only the single positive RCT.
TYPES OF LITERATURE REVIEW

Explicit systematic: Explicit use of rigorous method - can vary as
   least as much as the range of methods in primary research
Implicit systematic: rigorous method but not stated
False systematic: described as systematic but with little evidence of
   explicit rigorous method
Argument/thematic: a review that aims to explore and usually
   support a particular argument or theme with no pretension to use
   an explicit rigorous method (though thematic reviews can be
   systematic)
Expert or ad hoc review: informed by the skill and experience of the
   reviewer but no clear method so open to hidden bias.
Rapid evidence assessment: a rapid review that may or may not be
   rigorous and systematic. If it is systematic then in order to be
   rapid it is likely to be limited in some explicit aspect of scope.
   (Gough 2007)


                        •115
LITERATURE REVIEWS IN
MANAGEMENT
How many here have had training in reviewing literature?
Are we really “standing on the shoulders of giants”?
Do you recognize these sort of unqualified statements?
 • “Previous studies have shown that…”
 • “It has been demonstrated that…”
But how many studies? Demonstrated how? Did other
   studies find something else?
Very few systematic reviews in management




                    •116
WHAT QUALITIES SHOULD
LITERATURE REVIEWS HAVE?
WHAT QUALITIES SHOULD
LITERATURE REVIEWS HAVE?
Comprehensive?            Focused?
Reader-friendly?          Exploratory?
Informative?              Inclusive? (of different types
Balanced?                    of evidence)
Insightful?               Transparent?
Critical?                 Accurately referenced?
Rigorous?                 Objective?
Accessible?               Replicable?
User led?                 Interesting?
Up-to-date?               Standardized?


                   •118
WHAT IS A SYSTEMATIC
REVIEW?
It‟s research on existing research
With a clear, explicit and replicable methodology
   • Clear review question
   • Search strategy
   • Quality criteria
Allows us to draw reliable conclusions about what we know
     and do not know about a given question or problem




                     •119
Systematic review
Postgraduate Course




       The intention behind a systematic review is to identify as fully
       as possible all the scientific studies of relevance to a particular
       subject and to assess the validity and authority of the evidence
       of each study separately. As the name indicates, a systematic
       review takes a systematic approach to identifying studies and
       has the methodological quality critically appraised by multiple
       researchers independently of each other, as a consequence of
       which the review is transparent and reproducible and can be
       monitored. The use of statistical analysis techniques in a
       systematic review to pool the results of the individual studies
       numerically in order to achieve a more accurate estimate of
       the effect is termed a “meta-analysis”.
THE QUESTIONS SRs ANSWER

  For any given specific problem:
What do we know?
What do we not know?
What are we not sure about?
How do we know we know or don‟t know or are not sure
  that…?
What is the basis for our claims? (e.g., How much evidence?
  What quality?)




                     •122
Stages of a SR                  SYSTEMATIC
                                   REVIEW
                                1. problem
                                   formulation;
                                2. locating
Practice-                          studies;       What do   Informs
            Existing research                       we      practice
relevant          studies       3. study          know?
                                   selection                 Informs
question                                          What we     future
                                   and
                                   evaluation;     do not   research
                                                   know?    questions
                                4. analysis
                                   and
                                   synthesis;
                                5. reporting of
                                   the results
Stages of a systematic review
Postgraduate Course




     1. Formulate a focussed review question
     2. Search for the best available evidence

     3. Select relevant studies

     4. Critically appraise the evidence

     5. Synthesise the findings

     6. Report what is known
WHAT SORT OF QUESTIONS
CAN BE ADDRESSED IN A SR?
       Each would require much more specificity
Does team-building work?
Can you improve emotional intelligence?
Do increases in EI lead to performance improvements?
Does management development improve the performance of managers?
Does employee engagement predict organizational performance?
Is 360 degree feedback effective?
Can potentially great leaders be identified?
Is coaching effective?


                         •125
Does team-building work?

How would you make this question more
specific
PICOC & CIMO
Postgraduate Course




       P = Population               C = Context

       I = Intervention or factor   I = Intervention or factor

       C = Comparison               M = Mechanism

       O = Outcome                  O = Outcome

       C = Context
WHAT SORT OF QUESTIONS
CAN BE ADDRESSED IN A SR?
Does team-building work?
•   What is meant by „team‟? And what is not included as a „team‟?
•   What kind of teams?
•   In which particular contexts or settings?
•   What is „team building‟? And what is not „team building‟?
•   What does „work‟ mean?
•   „Work‟ compared to any other team intervention? No intervention?
•   What outcomes are relevant?
•   What are the mechanisms, processes and theory which might
    account for possible effects of team building on outcomes?
•   What time periods are relevant for observing any possible effects?
•   What about possible negative effects or harm?
•   What types of data from what sorts of designs would in principle
    provide good quality, medium quality and poor quality evidence?


                          •128
Which study for which question?
Postgraduate School



                                                          Qualitative             Observational   Controlled
      Research question                                                 Surveys
                                                           studies                  studies        studies

      Effectiveness: does it work?, does A work
      better than B?                                                                   +            ++
      Process: how does it work, why does it work?          ++            +
      Context: in what circumstances does it
      work, for whom?                                       ++            +            +
      Safety: will it do more good than harm?                +                         +            ++
      Acceptability: will the target group accept the
      intervention / new method of working?                 ++            +                          +
      Cost effectiveness: does it reduce costs? is A
      cheaper than B?                                                                               ++
      Appropriateness: is this the right intervention /
      method for this target group?                         ++           ++
      Satisfaction: is the target group satisfied with
      the new method of working?                            ++           ++            +
Stages of a systematic review
Postgraduate Course




     1. Formulate a focussed review question

     2. Search for the best available evidence
     3. Select relevant studies

     4. Critically appraise the evidence

     5. Synthesise the findings

     6. Report what is known
MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT
SEARCH STRATEGY
What sources of evidence?
What sources will you include or exclude and why?
How iterative can you be?
 • Test the question doing some simple searches
 • Does the question work?
 • Does the search strategy work?




                     •131
Search strategy
Postgraduate School




                Two types of search strategies




                 Snowball method   Building blocks method
Snowball method
Postgraduate School




        Starting from one book or article, you search
           for other literature on the same topic.
             Snowballing to older publications by finding out which
             publications were used by the author (see bibliography of
             book or article).
             Snowballing to more recent publications by finding out
             how often that book or article has been cited by other
             authors (see Web of Knowledge).
Snowball method
Postgraduate School



                      ISI Web of Knowledge
Building blocks method
Postgraduate School




            Keyword 1                 Keyword 2               Keyword 3                Keyword 4


             Synonyms or               Synonyms or              Synonyms or              Synonyms or
              related terms            related terms            related terms            related terms
         • ….                       • ….                     • ….                     • ….
         • ….                 OR • ….                  OR • ….                  OR • ….

         • ….                       • ….                     • ….                     • ….
         • ….                       • ….                     • ….                     • ….


                              AND                      AND                      AND
Postgraduate School
Building blocks method
Postgraduate School
Building blocks method
Postgraduate School
Stages of a systematic review
Postgraduate Course




     1. Formulate a focussed review question

     2. Search for the best available evidence


     3. Select relevant studies
     4. Critically appraise the evidence

     5. Synthesise the findings

     6. Report what is known
Stages of a systematic review
Postgraduate Course




     1. Formulate a focussed review question

     2. Search for the best available evidence

     3. Select relevant studies


     4. Critically appraise the evidence
     5. Synthesise the findings

     6. Report what is known
Standard appraisal questions
•Postgraduate School




       1. Did the study adress a clearly focused issue?
       2. Is the sample size justified?
       3. Is the design appropriate to the stated aims?
       4. Are te measurements likely to be valid and reliable?
       5. Are the statistical methods described?
       6. Did untoward events occur during the study?
       7. Were the basic data adequately described?
       8. Do the numbers add up?
       9. Was the statistical significance assessed?
       10. What do the findings mean?
       11. Are important effects overlooked?
       12. What implications does the study have for your practice?
Stages of a systematic review
Postgraduate Course




     1. Formulate a focussed review question

     2. Search for the best available evidence

     3. Select relevant studies

     4. Critically appraise the evidence


     5. Synthesise the findings
     6. Report what is known
Once a body of evidence has been
collated….
How relevant is this to what we are seeking to
 understand or decide?

How representative is this of the population that
 concerns us?

How reliable, how well-founded theoretically,
 empirically is it?

  „These are tough but necessary tests for evidence based policy and
                        practice‟ Solesbury 2004
Stages of a systematic review
Postgraduate Course




     1. Formulate a focussed review question

     2. Search for the best available evidence
     3. Select relevant studies

     4.    Critically appraise the evidence


     5. Synthesise the findings
     6. Report what is known
What does synthesis mean in MOS?

Analysis,
 • “…is the job of systematically breaking down something into its
   constituent parts and describing how they relate to each other – it is
   not random dissection but a methodological examination”

 • Is the aim is to extract key data, ideas, theories, concepts [arguments]
   and methodological assumptions from the literature?

Synthesis,
 • “…is the act of making connections between the parts identified in
   analysis. It is about recasting the information into a new or different
   arrangement. That arrangement should show connections and
   patterns that have not been produced previously”


                                                   (Hart, 1998: p.110)
Summarizing evidence

What does the evidence say?
Consistency of evidence?
Quality of evidence
Quantity of evidence (avoiding double
 counting)




               •146
The example of management and
leadership development
Does leadership development work?

What do we know?

What is the „best‟ research evidence available?

How can this evidence be „put together‟?

What are the strengths and weaknesses of different
  approaches to synthesis?
What methods of synthesis are available? (1/2)
  Aggregated synthesis              Meta analysis
  Analytic induction                Meta ethnography
  Bayesian meta analysis            Meta narrative mapping
                                    Meta needs assessment
  Case Survey
                                    Meta synthesis
  Comparative case study            Metaphorical analysis
  Constant targeted comparison      Mixed method synthesis
  Content analysis                  Narrative synthesis
  Critical interpretive synthesis   Quasi statistics
                                    Realist synthesis
  Cross design synthesis
                                    Reciprocal analysis
  Framework analysis                Taxonomic analysis
  Grounded theory                   Thematic synthesis
  Hermeneutical analysis            Theory driven synthesis
  Logical analysis
What methods of synthesis are available? (2/2)

 Synthesis by aggregation
  • extract and combine data from separate studies to increase the
    effective sample size.
 Synthesis by integration
  • collect and compare evidence from primary studies employing
    two or more data collection methods.
 Synthesis by interpretation
  • translate key interpretations / meanings from one study to
    another.
 Synthesis by explanation
  • identify causal mechanisms and how they operate.


                                    •(Rousseau, Manning, Denyer, 2008)
Van Buren & Erskine, 2002 (building on
Kirkpatrick)
Organizations reported collecting data on:
78% reaction (how participants have reacted to the
  programme)
32% learning (what participants have learnt from the
  programme)
9% behaviour (whether what was learnt is being applied
  on the job)
7% results (whether that application is achieving results)
Stages of a systematic review
Postgraduate Course




     1. Formulate a focussed review question

     2. Search for the best available evidence

     3. Select relevant studies

     4. Critically appraise the evidence

     5. Synthesise the findings


     6. Report what is known
Postgraduate School




                      What do you do with this?
Does management and leadership
development work

Overall, the results suggest a medium to
 large effect size for learning and
 behaviour (largely based on self
 report)
Absence of evidence of impact of
 business impact
Do the results of synthesis create clarity -
or confusion, conflict and controversy?

    “A wide variety of program outcomes are
      reported in the literature – some that are
   effective, but others that are failing. In some
  respects the lessons for practice can be found
  in the wide variance reported in these studies.
   The range of effect sizes clearly shows that it
        is possible to have very large positive
  outcomes, or no outcomes at all” (p. 240/241)


                   (Collins and Holton, 1996: 240/241)
Do the results of synthesis create clarity -
or confusion, conflict and controversy?
    “Organizations should feel comfortable that their
   managerial leadership development programmes will
  produce substantial results, especially if they offer the
  right development programs for the right people at the
       right time. For example, it is important to know
   whether a six-week training session is enough or the
     right approach to develop new competencies that
      change managerial behaviours, or it is individual
        feedback from a supervisor on a weekly basis
     regarding job performance that is most effective?”

                     (Collins and Holton, 1996: 240/241)
systematic review
Postgraduate Course




                      Example
Flexible working conditions and their effects on
employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010)

Background: Flexible working conditions are increasingly popular in
  developed countries but the effects on employee health and
  wellbeing are largely unknown.
Objectives: To evaluate the effects (benefits and harms) of flexible
  working interventions on the physical, mental and general health
  and wellbeing of employees and their families.
Search strategy: Our searches (July 2009) covered 12 databases
  including the Cochrane Public Health Group Specialized Register,
  CENTRAL; MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; PsycINFO; Social
  Science Citation Index; ASSIA; IBSS; Sociological Abstracts; and
  ABI/Inform. We also searched relevant websites, hand searched
  key journals, searched bibliographies and contacted study
  authors and key experts.




                        •157
Flexible working conditions and their effects on
employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010)

Selection criteria: Randomized controlled trials (RCT), interrupted
  time series and controlled before and after studies (CBA), which
  examined the effects of flexible working interventions on
  employee health and wellbeing. We excluded studies assessing
  outcomes for less than six months and extracted outcomes
  relating to physical, mental and general health/ill health measured
  using a validated instrument. We also extracted secondary
  outcomes (including sickness absence, health service usage,
  behavioral changes, accidents, work-life balance, quality of life,
  health and wellbeing of children, family members and co-workers)
  if reported alongside at least one primary outcome.
Data collection and analysis: Two experienced review authors
  conducted data extraction and quality appraisal. We undertook a
  narrative synthesis as there was substantial heterogeneity
  between studies.



                        •158
Flexible working conditions and their effects on
      employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010)
Main results: Ten studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Six CBA studies reported on
  interventions relating to temporal flexibility: self-scheduling of shift work (n = 4),
  flexitime (n = 1) and overtime (n = 1). The remaining four CBA studies evaluated a
  form of contractual flexibility: partial/gradual retirement (n = 2), involuntary part-time
  work (n = 1) and fixed-term contract (n = 1). The studies retrieved had a number of
  methodological limitations including short follow-up periods, risk of selection bias
  and reliance on largely self-reported outcome data. Four CBA studies on self-
  scheduling of shifts and one CBA study on gradual/partial retirement reported
  statistically significant improvements in either primary outcomes (including systolic
  blood pressure and heart rate; tiredness; mental health, sleep duration, sleep quality
  and alertness; self-rated health status) or secondary health outcomes (co-workers
  social support and sense of community) and no ill health effects were reported.
  Flexitime was shown not to have significant effects on self-reported physiological
  and psychological health outcomes. Similarly, when comparing individuals working
  overtime with those who did not the odds of ill health effects were not significantly
  higher in the intervention group at follow up. The effects of contractual flexibility on
  self-reported health (with the exception of gradual/partial retirement, which when
  controlled by employees improved health outcomes) were either equivocal or
  negative. No studies differentiated results by socio-economic status, although one
  study did compare findings by gender but found no differential effect on self-
  reported health outcomes.

                                  •159
Flexible working conditions and their effects on
employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010)

Authors’ conclusions: The findings of this review
  tentatively suggest that flexible working interventions
  that increase worker control and choice (such as self
  scheduling or gradual/partial retirement) are likely to
  have a positive effect on health outcomes. In contrast,
  interventions that were motivated or dictated by
  organizational interests, such as fixed-term contract
  and involuntary part-time employment, found equivocal
  or negative health effects. Given the partial and
  methodologically limited evidence base these findings
  should be interpreted with caution. Moreover, well-
  designed intervention studies are needed to delineate
  the impact of flexible working conditions on health,
  wellbeing and health inequalities.

                    •160

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Evidence-Based HR Management & Systematic Reviews

  • 1. Evidence-Based Management What is it? Why do we need it? How does it look like in practice? PhD Consortium of the 7th International Conference of the Dutch HRM network
  • 2. Evidence-Based Management Postgraduate Course  What is it?  Where does it come from?  Why do we need it?  What is stopping us?  How does is look like in practice?
  • 3. Postgraduate Course 1. Evidence based management: What is it?
  • 4. Four propositions Postgraduate Course  Research produced by management scholars could be useful to organizations  Drawing on available evidence (including research produced by academics) is likely to improve decisions  Managers and organizations do not appear to be strongly aware of nor use research findings  We need to increase awareness of and access to research findings
  • 5. What is EBMgt? Postgraduate Course Evidence-based management is about making decisions through the conscientious, explicit, and judicious use of four sources of information: practitioner expertise and judgment, evidence from the local context, a critical evaluation of the best available research evidence, and the perspectives of those people who might be affected by the decision. (Briner, Denyer, Rousseau, 2009)
  • 6. What is EBMgt? Postgraduate Course The problem is that management is not as evidence- based as it should be nor as it could be
  • 7. What is EBMgt? Postgraduate Course  It is not a completely new idea – managers and organizations use evidence all the time  EBMgt is different because it‟s about:  Increasing the types of evidence we use  Using it more thoughtfully and carefully (conscientious, judicious, explicit)  Its only purpose is to help us make better decisions through more and more systematic use of evidence
  • 8. Who says it’s a problem? Postgraduate Course  People in many other fields (medicine, social work, criminology, politicians) say it‟s a problem in their fields  Not everyone in management but some of people think it‟s a problem  Some academics and researchers  Some managers and organizations  Some professional associations  Some commentators and journalists
  • 10. Origins of EBMgt Postgraduate Course Management not the only field where there are these concerns. What field is this?  “a research-user gap”  “practitioners do not read academic journals”  “the findings of research into what is an effective intervention are not being translated into actual practice”  “academics not practitioners are driving the research agenda”  “the relevance, quality and applicability of research is questionable”  “practice is being driven more by fads and fashions than research”  “many practices are doing more harm than good”  “the collective wisdom from research is being lost”
  • 11. Evidence-Based Practice Postgraduate Course 1991 Medicine 1998 Education 1998 Probation service 1999 Housing policy 1999 Social care 2000 Nursing 2000 Criminal justice ???? Management?
  • 12. Academic interest in EBMgt Postgraduate Course Similar ideas around for a long time 2003 – Systematic reviews of evidence 2006 – Rousseau EBMgt Presidential Address and Pfeffer & Sutton book 2007-2009 – Rousseau EBMgt Collaborative 2008-2011 – Several conferences 2011 – Center for Evidence-Based Management (CEBMa) in Amsterdam 2011 – EBMgt Handbook But many researchers not interested at all in EBMgt
  • 13. Manager & practitioner interest in EBMgt  Some HRM and professional bodies express interest (SHRM, SIOP, VOV Learning Network)  Some Universities running courses for practitioners (e.g., Amsterdam, Ghent)  Some publications for practitioners  But managers are:  Used to working in a different way  Under pressure to adopt fads and fashions  Have high expectations of evidence
  • 14. Managers used to working in a different way:  Need to act quickly: Speed more important than accuracy  Organizational politics  Formal authority and hierarchies  Over-emphasize experience  Rewarded for getting things done not doing what works
  • 15. Sometimes we are evidence-based  Try to gather data and information  Invest time and effort in trying to understand and apply it  Question our and others‟ assumptions and logic  Are sceptical about what appear to be fads  Resist the temptation to act quickly
  • 16. Sometimes we are not so evidence-based  Act on gut feeling (though intuition can be important for some decisions)  Copy other people who appear successful (benchmarking)  Think there is one ideal way (best practice)  Let the „solution‟ frame and define our „problem‟ and create need (kitchen gadgets)  Want to fit in and be as cool as everyone else (fashion)
  • 17. Postgraduate Course 2. Evidence based management: Where does it come from?
  • 18. Medicine: Founding fathers Postgraduate Course David Sackett Gordon Guyatt McMaster University Medical School, Canada
  • 19. Problem I: too much information Postgraduate Course  More than 1 million articles in 40.000 medical journals per year (= 1995; now probably more than 2 million). For a specialist to keep up this means reading 25 articles every day (for a GP more than 100!)  Most of the new insights and treatment methods don‟t reach the target group
  • 20. Problem II: persistent convictions Postgraduate Course if you’re breathe into a bag hyperventilating
  • 21. Problem III: jumping to conclusions Postgraduate Course people who have an give them a drug that irregular heartbeat are reduces the much more likely to die number of of coronary disease irregular beats
  • 22. Postgraduate Course Examples of mechanistic reasoning gone wrong:  Oestrogen replacement therapy to reduce cardiac events and stroke in post-menopausal women.  Treatment of measles with antibiotics.  Rest for recovery.  Placing babies on their fronts to prevent Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS).  Debriefing after psychological trauma
  • 23. Problem IV Postgraduate Course David Sackett Half of what you learn in medical school will be shown to be either dead wrong or out-of-date within 5 years of your graduation; the trouble is that nobody can tell you which half. The most important thing to learn is how to learn on your own. (Remember that your teachers are as full of bullshit as your parents)
  • 24. Evidence based decision Postgraduate Course David Sackett “Good doctors use both individual clinical expertise and the best available external evidence, and neither alone is enough. Without clinical expertise, practice risks becoming tyrannized by evidence, for even excellent external evidence may be inapplicable to or inappropriate for an individual patient. Without current best evidence, practice risks becoming rapidly out of date, to the detriment of patients.”
  • 26. Management: Founding Fathers Postgraduate Course Jeffrey Pfeffer Robert Sutton
  • 27. Postgraduate Course 2. Evidence-based management: Why do we need it?
  • 28. EBMgt: some basic assumptions Postgraduate Course  Research produced by management scholars could be useful to organizations  Drawing on available evidence (including research produced by academics) is likely to improve decisions  Organizations do not appear to be strongly aware of nor use research findings  EBMgt is a potentially useful way of thinking about how we can incorporate research evidence into decision-making
  • 29. Postgraduate Course Reason 1: Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
  • 30. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course  Seeing order in randomness  Mental corner cutting  Misinterpretation of incomplete data  Halo effect  False consensus effect  Confirmation bias  Reinterpreting evidence  Authority bias  Group think  In-group bias  Self serving bias  Recall bias  Sunk cost fallacy  Anchoring bias  Cognitive dissonance reduction  Inaccurate covariation detection  Distortions due to plausibility
  • 31. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course  Seeing order in randomness  Mental corner cutting  Misinterpretation of incomplete data  Halo effect  Confirmation bias  False consensus effect  Authority bias  Reinterpreting evidence  In-group bias  Group think  Recall bias  Self serving bias  Anchoring bias  Sunk cost fallacy  Inaccurate covariation detection  Cognitive dissonance reduction  Distortions due to plausibility
  • 32. Seeing order in randomness Postgraduate Course We are predisposed to see order, pattern and causal relations in the world. Patternicity: The tendency to find meaningful patterns in both meaningful and meaningless noise.
  • 33. Seeing order in randomness Postgraduate Course We are pattern seeking primates: association learning
  • 34.
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  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London Postgraduate Course
  • 44. Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London Postgraduate Course
  • 45. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course  A Type I error or a false positive, is believing a pattern is real when it is not (finding a non existent pattern)  A Type II error or a false negative, is not believing a pattern is real when it is (not recognizing a real pattern) Dr. Michael Shermer (Director of the Skeptics Society)
  • 46. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course  A Type I error or a false positive: believe that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is just the wind (low cost)
  • 47. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course  A Type II error or a false negative: believe that the rustle in the grass is just the wind when it is a dangerous predator (high cost)
  • 48. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Pattern detection problem Assessing the difference between a Type I and Type II error is highly problematic (especially in split second „life and death‟ situations), so the default position is to assume all patterns are real.
  • 49. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Jennifer Whitson, University of Texas Austin, corporate environments
  • 50. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Erroneous beliefs plaque both experienced professionals and less informed laypeople alike. stress peptic ulcer
  • 51. Oct 2005 Peptic ulcer – an infectious disease! This year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine goes to Barry Marshall and Robin Warren, who with tenacity and a prepared mind challenged prevailing dogmas. By using technologies generally available (fibre endoscopy, silver staining of histological sections and culture techniques for microaerophilic bacteria), they made an irrefutable case that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori is causing disease. By culturing the bacteria they made them amenable to scientific study. In 1982, when this bacterium was discovered by Marshall and Warren, stress and lifestyle were considered the major causes of peptic ulcer disease. It is now firmly established that Helicobacter pylori causes more then 90% of duodenal ulcers. The link between Helicobacter pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease has been established through studies of human volunteers, antibiotic treatment studies and epidemiological studies.
  • 52. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Doctors, teachers, lawyers and managers hold many erroneous beliefs, not because they are ignorant or stupid, but because they seem to be the most sensible conclusion consistent with the available evidence. They hold such beliefs because they seem to be the irresistible products of their own professional experience. They are the products, not of irrationality, but of flawed rationality
  • 53. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course  Managers seem to be extremely good at generating ideas, theories, and explanations that have the ring of plausibility. They may be relatively deficient, however, in evaluating and testing those ideas once they are formed.  This requires that we think critically about experience, question our assumptions, and challenge what we think we know  (Show me the evidence!)
  • 54. Postgraduate Course 3. Evidence-based management: What is stopping us?
  • 55. Quick fixes (1) Postgraduate Course What is the quick fix? A „solution‟ which  Focuses on style and presentation not content  Is not evaluated  Is always slower than we hoped  Usually doesn‟t work  Is followed by another quick fix  Everybody forgets and becomes subject to organizational amnesia
  • 56. Quick fixes (2) Postgraduate Course So why do we do quick fixes?  Can be career-enhancing for managers (e.g., issue selling, kick-ass CEOs)  Speed is often valued over accuracy  Heavily sold and marketed  Are we all looking for quick and easy solutions? So who needs or wants academic research?
  • 57. •57
  • 58. •58
  • 59. •59
  • 60. •60
  • 61. •61
  • 62. •62
  • 63. •63
  • 64. •64
  • 65. Management Fads (1) Postgraduate Course The nearly-forgotten fads  Scientific Management/Taylorism  Business Process Reengineering  Management by results  Excellence  Total Quality Management  Learning Organizations  Knowledge Management
  • 66. Management Fads (2) Postgraduate Course The fads that haven‟t been forgotten (yet)  Talent management  Management development  Executive coaching  Emotional intelligence  Employee engagement  Myers Briggs Type Indicator  Belbin Team Roles General concern about the destructive impact of fads from both practitioners and researchers
  • 67. •67
  • 68. •68
  • 69. •69
  • 70. •70
  • 71. •71
  • 72. •72
  • 73. •73
  • 74. •74
  • 75. •75
  • 76. •76
  • 77. * FADS SEEM TO BE ATTRACTIVE, COMPELLING AND IRRESISTIBLE  Promise to deliver a lot and fast  Appear simple  New and shiny  Will make everything alright and help contain anxieties around intractable problems  Help user feel effective and cutting edge  Bits of some fads may work in some contexts So who needs or wants academic research? *Evidence-based management not a fad!
  • 78. •78
  • 79. •79
  • 80. dDwtNzI3 •80
  • 81. •81
  • 82. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course  Seeing order in randomness  Mental corner cutting  Misinterpretation of incomplete data  Halo effect  False consensus effect  Confirmation bias  Reinterpreting evidence  Authority bias  Group think  In-group bias  Recall bias  Anchoring bias  Inaccurate covariation detection  Distortions due to plausibility
  • 83. Under pressure to adopt fads Postgraduate Course “And there we see the power of any big managerial idea (or fad). It may be smart, like quality, or stupid, like conglomeration. Either way, if everybody's doing it, the pressure to do it too is immense. If it turns out to be smart, great. If it turns out to be stupid, well, you were in good company and most likely ended up no worse off than your competitors. Your company's board consists mostly of CEOs who were probably doing it at their companies. How mad can they get?
  • 84. Under pressure to adopt fads Postgraduate Course The true value of conventional management wisdom is not that it's wise or dumb, but that it's conventional. It makes one of the hardest jobs in the world, managing an organization, a little easier. By following it, managers everywhere see a way to drag their sorry behinds through another quarter without getting fired. And isn't that, really, what it's all about?” (Colvin, 2004, Fortune)
  • 85. Postgraduate Course 4. Evidence based management: How does it look like in practice?
  • 87. Postgraduate Course JAMA, 1992
  • 88. Push vs Pull Postgraduate Course Push: teaching (management) principles based upon a convergent body of research and telling students what to do. Pull: teaching (managers) how to find, appraise and apply the outcome of research (evidence) by themselves
  • 89. The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate an answerable question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Critically appraise the evidence 4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply 5. Monitor the outcome
  • 90. The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate an answerable question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Critically appraise the evidence 4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply 5. Monitor the outcome
  • 91. Answerable question Postgraduate Course I am a consultant, my client a large health-care organization. The board of directors has plans for a merger with a smaller healthcare organization. However, it‟s been said that the organizational culture differs widely between the two organizations. The board want‟s to know if this can impede a successful outcome.
  • 92. Answerable question: PICO(C) Postgraduate Course P = Population or problem I = Intervention or successfactor C = Comparison O = Outcome C = Context
  • 93. Answerable question: PICOC Postgraduate Course P: What kind of Population are we talking about? Middle managers, back-office employees, medical staff, clerical staff? O: What kind of Outcome are we aiming for? Employee productivity, return on investment, profit margin, competitive position, innovation power, market share, customer satisfaction? P/C: And how is the assumed cultural difference assessed? Is it the personal view of some managers or is it measured by a validated instrument?
  • 94. The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate an answerable question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Critically appraise the evidence 4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply 5. Monitor the outcome
  • 95. Where do we search? Postgraduate Course
  • 96. Where do we search? •Postgraduate School
  • 97. The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate an answerable question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Critically appraise the evidence 4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply 5. Monitor the outcome
  • 98. Critical appraisal Postgraduate Course How to read a research article?
  • 99. Critical appraisal Postgraduate Course 1. Study designs 2. Levels of evidence 3. Bias / confounding 4. Effect sizes 5. External validity
  • 100. Research designs Postgraduate Course Which study for which question? The “best” evidence depends on the question type !
  • 102. The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate an answerable question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Critically appraise the evidence 4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply 5. Monitor the outcome
  • 103. Organization concerns Postgraduate Course Always ask yourself to what extent the evidence is applicable in your situation: 1. Is your organization / division / population so different from those in the study that its results cannot apply? 2. How relevant is the study to what you are seeking to understand or decide? 3. What are your organization‟s potential benefits and harms from the intervention? 4. Is the intervention feasible in your setting?
  • 104. The 5 steps of ‘pull’ EBP Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate an answerable question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Critically appraise the evidence 4. Integrate the evidence with your managerial expertise and organisational concerns and apply 5. Monitor the outcome
  • 105. Monitor the outcome Postgraduate Course  posttest?  pretest?  control group?
  • 107. Postgraduate Course (*). Why should academics be interested in EBMgt?
  • 108. Postgraduate Course (5). Evidence based management: What can you do as a PhD student?
  • 110. Barriers Postgraduate Course Best available evidence = systematic reviews
  • 114. Postgraduate Course Better than a single study: a replication study Better than a replication study: a systematic review / meta analysis If there were 100 RCT‟s, 99 of which gave a „negative‟ result (where, say, the new intervention appeared to be harmful), while one had a „positive‟ result (were the intervention appeared helpful), it would obviously be a mistake to consider only the single positive RCT.
  • 115. TYPES OF LITERATURE REVIEW Explicit systematic: Explicit use of rigorous method - can vary as least as much as the range of methods in primary research Implicit systematic: rigorous method but not stated False systematic: described as systematic but with little evidence of explicit rigorous method Argument/thematic: a review that aims to explore and usually support a particular argument or theme with no pretension to use an explicit rigorous method (though thematic reviews can be systematic) Expert or ad hoc review: informed by the skill and experience of the reviewer but no clear method so open to hidden bias. Rapid evidence assessment: a rapid review that may or may not be rigorous and systematic. If it is systematic then in order to be rapid it is likely to be limited in some explicit aspect of scope. (Gough 2007) •115
  • 116. LITERATURE REVIEWS IN MANAGEMENT How many here have had training in reviewing literature? Are we really “standing on the shoulders of giants”? Do you recognize these sort of unqualified statements? • “Previous studies have shown that…” • “It has been demonstrated that…” But how many studies? Demonstrated how? Did other studies find something else? Very few systematic reviews in management •116
  • 118. WHAT QUALITIES SHOULD LITERATURE REVIEWS HAVE? Comprehensive? Focused? Reader-friendly? Exploratory? Informative? Inclusive? (of different types Balanced? of evidence) Insightful? Transparent? Critical? Accurately referenced? Rigorous? Objective? Accessible? Replicable? User led? Interesting? Up-to-date? Standardized? •118
  • 119. WHAT IS A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW? It‟s research on existing research With a clear, explicit and replicable methodology • Clear review question • Search strategy • Quality criteria Allows us to draw reliable conclusions about what we know and do not know about a given question or problem •119
  • 120.
  • 121. Systematic review Postgraduate Course The intention behind a systematic review is to identify as fully as possible all the scientific studies of relevance to a particular subject and to assess the validity and authority of the evidence of each study separately. As the name indicates, a systematic review takes a systematic approach to identifying studies and has the methodological quality critically appraised by multiple researchers independently of each other, as a consequence of which the review is transparent and reproducible and can be monitored. The use of statistical analysis techniques in a systematic review to pool the results of the individual studies numerically in order to achieve a more accurate estimate of the effect is termed a “meta-analysis”.
  • 122. THE QUESTIONS SRs ANSWER For any given specific problem: What do we know? What do we not know? What are we not sure about? How do we know we know or don‟t know or are not sure that…? What is the basis for our claims? (e.g., How much evidence? What quality?) •122
  • 123. Stages of a SR SYSTEMATIC REVIEW 1. problem formulation; 2. locating Practice- studies; What do Informs Existing research we practice relevant studies 3. study know? selection Informs question What we future and evaluation; do not research know? questions 4. analysis and synthesis; 5. reporting of the results
  • 124. Stages of a systematic review Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate a focussed review question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Select relevant studies 4. Critically appraise the evidence 5. Synthesise the findings 6. Report what is known
  • 125. WHAT SORT OF QUESTIONS CAN BE ADDRESSED IN A SR? Each would require much more specificity Does team-building work? Can you improve emotional intelligence? Do increases in EI lead to performance improvements? Does management development improve the performance of managers? Does employee engagement predict organizational performance? Is 360 degree feedback effective? Can potentially great leaders be identified? Is coaching effective? •125
  • 126. Does team-building work? How would you make this question more specific
  • 127. PICOC & CIMO Postgraduate Course P = Population C = Context I = Intervention or factor I = Intervention or factor C = Comparison M = Mechanism O = Outcome O = Outcome C = Context
  • 128. WHAT SORT OF QUESTIONS CAN BE ADDRESSED IN A SR? Does team-building work? • What is meant by „team‟? And what is not included as a „team‟? • What kind of teams? • In which particular contexts or settings? • What is „team building‟? And what is not „team building‟? • What does „work‟ mean? • „Work‟ compared to any other team intervention? No intervention? • What outcomes are relevant? • What are the mechanisms, processes and theory which might account for possible effects of team building on outcomes? • What time periods are relevant for observing any possible effects? • What about possible negative effects or harm? • What types of data from what sorts of designs would in principle provide good quality, medium quality and poor quality evidence? •128
  • 129. Which study for which question? Postgraduate School Qualitative Observational Controlled Research question Surveys studies studies studies Effectiveness: does it work?, does A work better than B? + ++ Process: how does it work, why does it work? ++ + Context: in what circumstances does it work, for whom? ++ + + Safety: will it do more good than harm? + + ++ Acceptability: will the target group accept the intervention / new method of working? ++ + + Cost effectiveness: does it reduce costs? is A cheaper than B? ++ Appropriateness: is this the right intervention / method for this target group? ++ ++ Satisfaction: is the target group satisfied with the new method of working? ++ ++ +
  • 130. Stages of a systematic review Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate a focussed review question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Select relevant studies 4. Critically appraise the evidence 5. Synthesise the findings 6. Report what is known
  • 131. MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT SEARCH STRATEGY What sources of evidence? What sources will you include or exclude and why? How iterative can you be? • Test the question doing some simple searches • Does the question work? • Does the search strategy work? •131
  • 132. Search strategy Postgraduate School Two types of search strategies Snowball method Building blocks method
  • 133. Snowball method Postgraduate School Starting from one book or article, you search for other literature on the same topic. Snowballing to older publications by finding out which publications were used by the author (see bibliography of book or article). Snowballing to more recent publications by finding out how often that book or article has been cited by other authors (see Web of Knowledge).
  • 134. Snowball method Postgraduate School ISI Web of Knowledge
  • 135. Building blocks method Postgraduate School Keyword 1 Keyword 2 Keyword 3 Keyword 4 Synonyms or Synonyms or Synonyms or Synonyms or related terms related terms related terms related terms • …. • …. • …. • …. • …. OR • …. OR • …. OR • …. • …. • …. • …. • …. • …. • …. • …. • …. AND AND AND
  • 139. Stages of a systematic review Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate a focussed review question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Select relevant studies 4. Critically appraise the evidence 5. Synthesise the findings 6. Report what is known
  • 140. Stages of a systematic review Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate a focussed review question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Select relevant studies 4. Critically appraise the evidence 5. Synthesise the findings 6. Report what is known
  • 141. Standard appraisal questions •Postgraduate School 1. Did the study adress a clearly focused issue? 2. Is the sample size justified? 3. Is the design appropriate to the stated aims? 4. Are te measurements likely to be valid and reliable? 5. Are the statistical methods described? 6. Did untoward events occur during the study? 7. Were the basic data adequately described? 8. Do the numbers add up? 9. Was the statistical significance assessed? 10. What do the findings mean? 11. Are important effects overlooked? 12. What implications does the study have for your practice?
  • 142. Stages of a systematic review Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate a focussed review question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Select relevant studies 4. Critically appraise the evidence 5. Synthesise the findings 6. Report what is known
  • 143. Once a body of evidence has been collated…. How relevant is this to what we are seeking to understand or decide? How representative is this of the population that concerns us? How reliable, how well-founded theoretically, empirically is it? „These are tough but necessary tests for evidence based policy and practice‟ Solesbury 2004
  • 144. Stages of a systematic review Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate a focussed review question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Select relevant studies 4. Critically appraise the evidence 5. Synthesise the findings 6. Report what is known
  • 145. What does synthesis mean in MOS? Analysis, • “…is the job of systematically breaking down something into its constituent parts and describing how they relate to each other – it is not random dissection but a methodological examination” • Is the aim is to extract key data, ideas, theories, concepts [arguments] and methodological assumptions from the literature? Synthesis, • “…is the act of making connections between the parts identified in analysis. It is about recasting the information into a new or different arrangement. That arrangement should show connections and patterns that have not been produced previously” (Hart, 1998: p.110)
  • 146. Summarizing evidence What does the evidence say? Consistency of evidence? Quality of evidence Quantity of evidence (avoiding double counting) •146
  • 147. The example of management and leadership development Does leadership development work? What do we know? What is the „best‟ research evidence available? How can this evidence be „put together‟? What are the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to synthesis?
  • 148. What methods of synthesis are available? (1/2) Aggregated synthesis Meta analysis Analytic induction Meta ethnography Bayesian meta analysis Meta narrative mapping Meta needs assessment Case Survey Meta synthesis Comparative case study Metaphorical analysis Constant targeted comparison Mixed method synthesis Content analysis Narrative synthesis Critical interpretive synthesis Quasi statistics Realist synthesis Cross design synthesis Reciprocal analysis Framework analysis Taxonomic analysis Grounded theory Thematic synthesis Hermeneutical analysis Theory driven synthesis Logical analysis
  • 149. What methods of synthesis are available? (2/2) Synthesis by aggregation • extract and combine data from separate studies to increase the effective sample size. Synthesis by integration • collect and compare evidence from primary studies employing two or more data collection methods. Synthesis by interpretation • translate key interpretations / meanings from one study to another. Synthesis by explanation • identify causal mechanisms and how they operate. •(Rousseau, Manning, Denyer, 2008)
  • 150. Van Buren & Erskine, 2002 (building on Kirkpatrick) Organizations reported collecting data on: 78% reaction (how participants have reacted to the programme) 32% learning (what participants have learnt from the programme) 9% behaviour (whether what was learnt is being applied on the job) 7% results (whether that application is achieving results)
  • 151. Stages of a systematic review Postgraduate Course 1. Formulate a focussed review question 2. Search for the best available evidence 3. Select relevant studies 4. Critically appraise the evidence 5. Synthesise the findings 6. Report what is known
  • 152. Postgraduate School What do you do with this?
  • 153. Does management and leadership development work Overall, the results suggest a medium to large effect size for learning and behaviour (largely based on self report) Absence of evidence of impact of business impact
  • 154. Do the results of synthesis create clarity - or confusion, conflict and controversy? “A wide variety of program outcomes are reported in the literature – some that are effective, but others that are failing. In some respects the lessons for practice can be found in the wide variance reported in these studies. The range of effect sizes clearly shows that it is possible to have very large positive outcomes, or no outcomes at all” (p. 240/241) (Collins and Holton, 1996: 240/241)
  • 155. Do the results of synthesis create clarity - or confusion, conflict and controversy? “Organizations should feel comfortable that their managerial leadership development programmes will produce substantial results, especially if they offer the right development programs for the right people at the right time. For example, it is important to know whether a six-week training session is enough or the right approach to develop new competencies that change managerial behaviours, or it is individual feedback from a supervisor on a weekly basis regarding job performance that is most effective?” (Collins and Holton, 1996: 240/241)
  • 157. Flexible working conditions and their effects on employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010) Background: Flexible working conditions are increasingly popular in developed countries but the effects on employee health and wellbeing are largely unknown. Objectives: To evaluate the effects (benefits and harms) of flexible working interventions on the physical, mental and general health and wellbeing of employees and their families. Search strategy: Our searches (July 2009) covered 12 databases including the Cochrane Public Health Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL; MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; PsycINFO; Social Science Citation Index; ASSIA; IBSS; Sociological Abstracts; and ABI/Inform. We also searched relevant websites, hand searched key journals, searched bibliographies and contacted study authors and key experts. •157
  • 158. Flexible working conditions and their effects on employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010) Selection criteria: Randomized controlled trials (RCT), interrupted time series and controlled before and after studies (CBA), which examined the effects of flexible working interventions on employee health and wellbeing. We excluded studies assessing outcomes for less than six months and extracted outcomes relating to physical, mental and general health/ill health measured using a validated instrument. We also extracted secondary outcomes (including sickness absence, health service usage, behavioral changes, accidents, work-life balance, quality of life, health and wellbeing of children, family members and co-workers) if reported alongside at least one primary outcome. Data collection and analysis: Two experienced review authors conducted data extraction and quality appraisal. We undertook a narrative synthesis as there was substantial heterogeneity between studies. •158
  • 159. Flexible working conditions and their effects on employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010) Main results: Ten studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Six CBA studies reported on interventions relating to temporal flexibility: self-scheduling of shift work (n = 4), flexitime (n = 1) and overtime (n = 1). The remaining four CBA studies evaluated a form of contractual flexibility: partial/gradual retirement (n = 2), involuntary part-time work (n = 1) and fixed-term contract (n = 1). The studies retrieved had a number of methodological limitations including short follow-up periods, risk of selection bias and reliance on largely self-reported outcome data. Four CBA studies on self- scheduling of shifts and one CBA study on gradual/partial retirement reported statistically significant improvements in either primary outcomes (including systolic blood pressure and heart rate; tiredness; mental health, sleep duration, sleep quality and alertness; self-rated health status) or secondary health outcomes (co-workers social support and sense of community) and no ill health effects were reported. Flexitime was shown not to have significant effects on self-reported physiological and psychological health outcomes. Similarly, when comparing individuals working overtime with those who did not the odds of ill health effects were not significantly higher in the intervention group at follow up. The effects of contractual flexibility on self-reported health (with the exception of gradual/partial retirement, which when controlled by employees improved health outcomes) were either equivocal or negative. No studies differentiated results by socio-economic status, although one study did compare findings by gender but found no differential effect on self- reported health outcomes. •159
  • 160. Flexible working conditions and their effects on employee health and wellbeing (Joyce et al, 2010) Authors’ conclusions: The findings of this review tentatively suggest that flexible working interventions that increase worker control and choice (such as self scheduling or gradual/partial retirement) are likely to have a positive effect on health outcomes. In contrast, interventions that were motivated or dictated by organizational interests, such as fixed-term contract and involuntary part-time employment, found equivocal or negative health effects. Given the partial and methodologically limited evidence base these findings should be interpreted with caution. Moreover, well- designed intervention studies are needed to delineate the impact of flexible working conditions on health, wellbeing and health inequalities. •160