Nuclear submarines have been proposed as shelters that could provide survival for hundreds of people in the event of various global catastrophes. They are designed to be robust and survive underwater independently for months or years. Existing military submarines could be converted to serve as shelters relatively cheaply by adding supplies. Nuclear submarines could protect against threats like nuclear war, pandemics, and asteroid impacts by moving to safe locations and being difficult to detect underwater. While not suitable for all risks, nuclear submarines represent a cheaper option than other proposed shelters like space colonies or bunkers.
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Nuclear submarines as global risk shelters
1. Alexey Turchin, Brian Green
Nuclear submarines
as global catastrophic
risk shelters
Foundation Science for Life Extension
alexeiturchin@gmail.com
2. Seth Baum
Isolated refuges for surviving global catastrophes
http://sethbaum.com/ac/2015_Refuges.html
Nuclear submarines are
designed to be robust
survivors
Surface independence criteria:
• 0.5 - 5 years autonomy
• At least 400 meters below surface
• Could move throughout the ocean
3. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
designed to be robust
survivors
Military-grade survivability:
• Protection from pressure and shock waves
• Hiddenness
• Air independence
• Radiation protection
4. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
the cheapest solution
SSBN are cheaper than space colonies:
• They are already exist
• 1 trillion dollars spent on refining submarine
technology
• Collectively thousands of years of experience
• Rate of accidents becomes very low
5. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines
designed to survive
nuclear war
Subs were designed with nuclear war survival in mind
• Blast and EMP protection
• Radiation protection
• Able to move to Southern hemisphere, where will be less
radiation
• Able to go to the equator, where will be less ice in case of the
nuclear winter
• Able to survive under ice
• Not easy targets
6. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
the cheapest solution
SSBNs could serve as refuges while continuing to
perform other functions:
• Worldwide, there are 20 subs in the sea everyday
• Women are already in crews
• Addition of seeds, books and data could convert
them into refuges with small investment
7. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines
are better than bunkers
• They can move and not easy targets
• Could move to the safest place
• No looters or “infected friends”
• No need for air and water tubes on surface
• No heat dissipation problem
• Could go deeper because ocean is colder (no thermal
gradient problem)
• Already have nuclear power
• Information isolation: no Internet on board
8. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are
better than Mars colony
• They already exist
• They are proved to be safe
• They are cheaper even in best realisation ерт
smallest Mars colony
• Mars colony autonomy is impossible without self-
replicating robots, which creates new risks
• Mars colony is easy target in case of war
9. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines have
their own energy source
• 25-50 years of operation for contemporary
reactors
• No heat dissipation problem
• No need for fuel or air
• Could be replaced by water turbines, generating
electricity from currents
10. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines:
own supplies
• Oxygen generation from water
• Water desalination
• Plankton filtering is possible as source of food
11. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines
could provide survival for
different catastrophes:
• Nuclear war with large radiological contamination and
nuclear winter
• Biological war or pandemic, especially slow and hidden
• Asteroid impacts and nuclear winter
• Short term but intense global warming
• Mutiny of a drone army
• Gamma ray burst
• Supervoclanic event
12. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines will
not help for too large
high-tech catastrophe
• Unfriendly AI
• Grey goo of nanobots
• LHC catastrophe creates mini blackhole
13. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
14. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Food for 5 years could be
stored in missile shafts
• Unfriendly AI
• Grey goo of nanobots
• LHC catastrophe creates mini blackhole
15. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Ohio-class SSBN
has crew of 155
• Minimal survivable population is around 100
• Eggs and sperm could be frozen
• Starting in 2010, women joined US submarine
crews
16. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Submarine needs a
remote island to dock
• Submarines are good for surviving a short-term,
intense event
• Islands are good for long-term survival of medium
intensity event
• Islands could be good starting points for human
recovery
17. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Levels of realisation of
the project:
• Cheap: add some books and seeds to already
existing subs,1 mln USD, 6 month survival.
• Medium: convert decommissioned Ohio-class
submarine in “Yellow submarine”, 1 bn USD, 5 years
survival.
• High: create fleet of the ark-submarines from
scratch, 200 bn USD (still cheaper than ISS) - 20
years survival.
18. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Funding
• Negative price is possible: Navy could pay
from its advertising budgets for small scale
realisation
• Billionaires: Personal refuge + yacht +
recreational home + wildlife observation
• Space programs: Nuclear submarines could be
test environment for long-term survival in space
19. Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe."
Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Conclusion
• Nuclear submarines could be effective refuges from several types of global
catastrophes
• Existing military submarines could be upgraded for this function with relatively
low cost
• Contemporary submarines could provide several months of surface
independence
• A specially designed fleet of nuclear submarines could potentially survive years
or even decades under water
• Nuclear submarine refuges could be a step towards the creation of space
refuges
20. The Map of Shelters and Refuges from Global Risks (Plan B of X-risks Prevention)
On the ground
Distance from typical habitats
Underground On the sea Under the sea
Antarctic
bases
Number of shelters:
more than 10
Number of people: hun-
dreds
Independent survivabil-
ity: 1-5 years
Ability to re-create civi-
lization: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
pandemics, nuclear winter,
fallout
Uncontacted
tribes
Number of shelters:
around 10
Number of people: tho-
sands
Independent survivabil-
ity: thousands years
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: medium
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
some types of pandemics
Remote
villages
Number of shelters: thou-
sands or more
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: almost indefinite
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
pandemics
Random
survivors
Number of shelters: de-
pends of type of catastrophe
Number of people: un-
known
Independent survivabil-
ity: months
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: low
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
stochastic events
Air planes
Tesla cars
with biosafety
system
Number of shelters: many
thousands
Number of people: thou-
sands
Independent survivabil-
ity: days
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: medium
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
pandemic
Price: included
Mines, caves
and subways
Number of shelters: thou-
sands
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: days
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
explosions and acute fallout
Bomb shelters
and commercial shelters
Number of shelters: many
thousands
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: days, may be weeks
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
explosions and acute fallout
Cold war com-
mand centers and
underground cities
Number of shelters: around 10
Number of people: unknown, may-
be hundreds
Independent survivability: years
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: could be targeted in
war
Best protection against: explo-
sions, fallout, pandemics
Ships
Number of shelters: many
thousands
Number of people: millions
Independent survivabil-
ity: 1 year for some, may be
more
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
explosions, pandemics
Islands
Number of shelters:
thousands
Number of people: mil-
lions
Independent survivabil-
ity: indefinite
Ability to re-create civi-
lization: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
pandemics
Nuclear
submarines
Number of shelters: 10-
100
Number of people: thou-
sands
Independent survivabil-
ity: around 1 year
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: high
Vulnerability: medium
Best protection against:
explosions and acute fallout
International
space station
Number of shelters: 1
Number of people: 6
Independent survivabil-
ity: 3 monthes- 1 years
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: low
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against:
short, but covering all earth
surface catastrophe (air-
borne pandemics)
Time
Refugesthatarecurrentlyinexistence;Typesofrisks:nuclearwar,
multi-pandemics,supervolcanicexplosion
Ship wrecks,
rafts
Number of shelters: de-
pends of a type of a catas-
trophe
Number of people: un-
known, maybe hundreds
Independent survivabil-
ity: months
Ability to re-create civili-
zation: low
Vulnerability: high to natu-
ral causes
Best protection against:
pandemics
Distributed net of
survivalists
Includes hoards with food
Trained people
Number of shelters: depends of
type of catastrophe
Number of people: thousands?
Independent survivability: months
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against: stochastic
events, pandemics, nuclear war
In near space Remote space
Doomsday vault
facilities which will help to rec-
reate civilization by preserving
important knowledge, instru-
ments, seeds, resources, but
not people
Number of shelters: now one
Number of people: thousands?
Independent survivability:
months
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against: sto-
chastic events, pandemics, nuclear
war
Converting
ALL existing
nuclear
submarines
in temporary
asylums in
short notice
(~6 months)
“Preppers”
People, who prepare to smaller
catastrophe and stock food
Number of people: 3 million people
in US
Independent survivability: months
Ability to re-create civilization:
high
Vulnerability: high
Best protection against: stochastic
events, pandemics, nuclear war
Food storages, and chemically syn-
thesised food, see work of Denken-
berger