3. ïĄ Who votes âand who doesnât?
ïĄ What makes people vote the way they do?
ïĄ Why donât people vote?
4.
5. ïĄ Age Older >Younger
ïĄ Gender Women > Men
ïĄ Income Richer > Poorer
ïĄ Education College Degree > HS Graduate
ïĄ Race and Ethnicity Mixed Evidence
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. Truman Dewey
Panel Study: Use a sample of the population and ask them
throughout campaign if their views have changed over time.
11. âą Our voting decision takes places in a social context.
âą Inherit partisanship from family and peers
âą Strong pull when similar socio-economic status (SES) and religion
âą Impact of political homogeneity
âą What about âCross-Pressuredâ voters?
12.
13.
14.
15. ïĄ Political Socialization
ïĄ Party ID
ïĄ Political Attitudes
ïĄ Voting Decision
ïĄ How are attitudes formed?
ï§ Feelings toward the
Democratic and
Republican candidates
ï§ How well each party
manages government
ï§ Group interests (âknows
people like meâ)
ï§ Domesticpolicy issues
ï§ Foreign policy issues
16. ïĄ Voting based on past performance
ïĄ If you are the incumbent:
ï§ Remember great things?
ï§ âAre you better off than you were four years ago?â
ïĄ If you are the challenger:
ï§ Remember problems?
ï§ âAre you better off than you were four years ago?â
17. ïĄ Voting based off of future considerations
ïĄ If you are the incumbent:
ï§ Plans for a new term if re-elected
ï§ What will future look like with challenger?
ïĄ If you are the challenger:
ï§ Reject incumbentâs policies
ï§ Vote for change in years ahead
18.
19.
20. R= PxB â C + D
Economic theory is based on assigning costs and benefits to
votingâand then making a decision on whether to vote or not.
Isnât it always logical to vote? Downs would say, âMaybeâ
Probability of
vote
âmatteringâ
Benefits of
Voting
Costs of
Voting
âCivic DutyâReward
fromVoting
24. ïĄ Party ID
ï§ Is candidate a Republican or a Democrat?
ïĄ Interpersonal Communications
ï§ Friends and Family; âOpinion Leadersâ
ïĄ The Media
ï§ Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing
ïĄ Idea of âRepresentativenessâ
ï§ People compare actual candidate to âidealâ version
25.
26. ïĄ Legal Obstacles
ïĄ Attitude Changes
ïĄ Voter Mobilization
ïĄ Decrease in Social Connectedness
ïĄ Generational Changes
ïĄ The âRational Nonvoterâ