Climate change effect on agricultural sector

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON AGRICULTURE
OF PAKISTAN
a joint effort by
Atif Nawaz
&
Ahmed Raza
emil- aafinawaz@gmail.com
MBA (3.5 Years)
INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT SCIENCES,

OUTLINES
 What is climate change
 Difference between climate and weather
 Previous vs. present Climates
 Causes
 Effect on agriculture sector
 Prevention
UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE FAISALABAD – UAF

INTRODUCTION
Climate
Change in atmosphere over long period of time
Weather
Shot term change in atmosphere over short time period
Climate change
Changes in the earth's weather, including changes in temperature, wind patterns and
rainfall, especially the increase in the temperature of the earth's atmosphere that is
caused by the increase of particular gases, especially carbon dioxide.

INTRODUCTION (CONT…..)
 The past some decade gas and energy consuming in globe cause the change atmosphere
industry and agriculture.
 GNG Corbin dioxide (CO2) methane (Ch4) nitrous oxide (N2O) radiation increased
temperature in last decades 0.13°C
 change in 1.1and 6.4 at the end of the 21st century. That caused in some region
regional and global changes in the climate-related parameters such as rainfall, soil
moisture, and sea level. Ice melting in increase temperature (IPCC)

https://www.google.com.pk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiayr23r47MAhVBE5QKHYsWBm4QFggaMAA&url=htt
ps%3A%2

CONSEQUENCES
 Increase in ambient CO2 concentration is beneficial since it leads to increased
photosynthesis in several crops, especially those with C3 mechanism of
photosynthesis such as wheat and rice, and decreased evaporative losses. Despite
this, yields of major cereals crops, especially wheat are likely to be reduced due to
decrease in grain filling duration, increased respiration, and / or reduction in
rainfall/irrigation supplies.
 Increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, cyclones and heat
waves will adversely affect agricultural productivity.
 Reduction in yields in the rained areas due to changes in rainfall pattern during
monsoon season and increased crop water demand.

CONSEQUENCES
 Incidence of cold waves and frost events may decrease in future due to global
warming and it would lead to a decreased probability of yield loss associated with
frost damage such as mustard and vegetables
 Quality of fruits, vegetables, tea, and medicinal plants may be affected.
 Agricultural biodiversity rainfall and increase in temperature, sea level rise, and
increased frequency and severity of droughts, cyclones and floods.

CONSEQUENCES
Water
 Demand for irrigation water would increase with rise in temperature and evapor-
transpiration rate. lowering of groundwater table at some places.
 The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas will increase water availability in the siachen and
their tributaries in the short-run, but in the long run, the availability of water will decrease
considerably.
 A significant increase in runoff is projected in the wet season .This additional water in the
wet season, on the other hand, may lead to increase in frequency and duration of floods.
 The water balance in different parts of Pakistan will be disturbed and the quality of
groundwater along the coastal track will be affected more due to intrusion of sea waters.

CONSEQUENCES
 Soil
 Organic matter content, which is already quite low in Pakistani soils, would
become still lower. Quality of soil organic matter may be affected.
 The residues of crops under the elevated CO2 concentrations will have higher
 Nutrient supply also effected.
 Rise in soil temperature will increase.
 There may be a change in rainfall volume and frequency.
 • Rise in sea level may lead to salt-water ingression in the coastal lands,
turning them less suitable for conventional agriculture.

CONSEQUENCES
 Livestock
 • Climate change will affect fodder production and nutritional security of livestock.
Increased temperature would enhance lignifications of plant tissues, reducing the
digestibility.
 • Global warming would increase water, shelter, and energy requirement of livestock
for meeting the projected milk demands.
 • Climate change is likely to aggravate the heat stress in dairy animals, adversely
affecting their reproductive performance.

CONSEQUENCES
 Fishery
 • Increasing temperature of sea and river water is likely to affect breeding, migration
and harvests of fishes.
 • Impacts of increased temperature and tropical cyclonic activity would affect the
capture, production and marketing costs of the marine fish.
 • Coral bleaching is likely to increase due to higher sea surface temperature.

CAUSES
 Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcing or "forcing mechanisms“.
 Two types forces
 1: External /Natural
External forcing mechanisms can be either natural.
 Solar output The is the predominant source of energy.
 Volcanism
 Plate tectonics
 Orbital variations

CAUSES
 Solar output
Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations
of sunspots .
The Sun is the predominant source of energy input to the Earth. Other sources
include geothermal energy from the Earth. Both long- and short-term variations in
solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

CAUSES
 Volcanism
 In atmospheric temperature from 1979 to 2010, determined by NASA satellites,
effects appear from aerosols released by major volcanic eruptions .
 Earth's climate on a scale of more than 1 year are the ones that inject over
100,000 tons of SO2 into the stratosphere. This is due to the optical properties of
SO2 and sulfate aerosols, which strongly absorb or scatter solar radiation, creating a
global layer of sulfuric acid haze.
 Plate tectonics
Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global
land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and
local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.

CAUSES
 2: Internal Causes
 Human influences
 Climate changing caused by human activities," and it "is largely irreversible.
 CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil fuel consumption, followed by aerosols (particulate
matter in the atmosphere) and the CO2 released by cement manufacture.
 Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture and deforestation,
both separately and in conjunction with other factors – in affecting climate, microclimate,
and measures of climate variables.

CAUSES
 Coal consumption
 coal consumption is one of the major cause effect of climate they generate heat
carbon air pollution that effect health of the human and other species
 Chemical industry
 Chemical industry is effect like cement factory nylon factory fertilizer industry
 CO2 & Nitrogen
 Forest cutting
 Large scale energy consumption
 Population

GRAPH, FIGURES, DATA
Year Area Production Yield
(000 Hectare) % Change (000 bales)% Change (Kgs/Hec) %
Change
2010-11 2,689 - 11,460 - 725 -
2011-12 2,835 5.4 13,595 18.6 815 12.4
2012-13 2,879 1.6 13,031 -4.1 769 -5.6
2013-14 2,806 -2.5 12,769 -2 773 0.5
2014-
15(P)
2,961 5.5 13,183 9.5 802 3.8
Cotton production

The variation in production of every
year cased by weather is fluctuation
and the disturbance in monsoon

(000 Hectare) % Change (000 Tonnes) % Change (Kgs/Hec.) % Change
2010-11 988 - 55,309 - 55,981 -
2011-12 1,058 7.1 58,397 5.6 55,196 -1.4
2012-13 1,129 6.7 63,750 9.2 56,466 2.3
2013-14 1,173 3.9 67,460 5.8 57,511 1.8
2014-15
(P)
1,141 -2.7 62,652 -7.1 54,910 -4.5
Sugarcane

Change the pattern of rain increase
production and farmer need to
change the methods of the
cultivation to increases production
farmer need to grow the sugarcane
ten day before

(000 Hectares) % Change (000 Tonnes) % Change (Kgs /Hec.) %
Changes
2010-11 8,901 - 25,214 - 2833 -
2011-12 8,650 -2.8 23,473 -6.9 2714 -4.2
2012-13 8,660 0.1 24,211 3.1 2796 3
2013-14 9,199 6.2 25,979 7.3 2824 1
2014-
15(P)
9,180 -0.2 25,478 -1.9 2775 -1.7
Wheat

Wheat crop is effected by the
shortage of the winter season that
cause crop ripe before time require
for growth of wheat grain. Grain is
shrink because temperature
increased quickly then crop
production is decreased
Tiller

(000
Hectare)
% Change (000 Tonnes) % Change (Kgs/Hec.) % Change
2010-11 2,365 - 4,823 - 2,039 -
2011-12 2,571 8.7 6,160 27.7 2,396 17.5
2012-13 2,309 -10.2 5,536 -10.1 2,398 0.1
2013-14 2,789 20.8 6,798 22.8 2,437 16.3
2014-15
(P)
2,891 3.6 7,005 3 2,423 -0.6
Rice Production

Rice crop effect if the rains
production is increased in the
situation when need if the rain
at near

(000 Hectares) % Change (000 Tonnes) % Change (Kgs /Hec.) % Changes
2010-11 974 - 3,707 - 3,806 -
2011-12 1,087 11.6 4,338 17 3,991 4.9
2012-13 1,060 -2.5 4,220 -2.7 3,981 -0.3
2013-14 1,168 10.3 4,944 17.2 4,233 6.3
2014-15
(P)
1,130 -3.3 -4.8 -3.8 -2.8 -1.8
Maize Production

Maize is the water loving plant.
Rainfall period during early
growth days of crop is
beneficial.
But during the harvesting of
maize crop rainfall is very
harmful.

Crops 2013-14 2014-15 (P) % Change in
production
over
Last year
Area
(000 Hectares)
Production
(000 Tonnes)
Area
(000 Hectares)
Production
(000 Tonnes)
Bajra 475 301 408 258 -14.3
Jowar 198 119 171 103 -13.4
Gram 950 399 960 484 21.3
Barley 71 67 66 61 -9
Rapeseed & Mustard 220 203 198 183 -9.9
Tobacco 49 130 49 130 0
Area and Production of other Kharif and Rabi Crops

ANALYSIS
 Seasonal temperature patterns
o In general increasing temperature was reported for winter and autumn. Decreasing
temperature was reported for spring. The decreasing temperature in spring was attributed to
extended winter and early summer rain making the spring cooler.
o decreasing temperature in summer was reported. This was due to late winter rain coming in
spring and early summer rain starting already in June. June normally is regarded as the
hottest month. This has changed due to shifting of rainfall patterns. Monsoon rains come in
July-August which are the hottest months, giving the months a cooling reputation.
[

ANALYSIS
 Rainfall patterns
 In all the districts, a shift of winter rainfall was reported by 2-3 weeks. The quantity
of winter rainfall was reported to have decreased. As compared to the past shorter
spells of rain was also noted, previously rain came in long spells stretching over days
to a week. A shift in monsoon rainfall towards spring by 2-3 weeks was reported with
around 20% decrease in the overall rain.
 Mushrooming of tube wells
 With increasing cultivation of wheat, number of tube wells has significantly
increased. The farmers are planning construction of more tube wells. This is an
alarming situation for the underground water resources and water table of the area.

PREVENTION & SUGGESTIONS
Aware people about climate & implement climate friendly strategies
Don’t disturb natural resources.
Plant maximum amount of trees.
Reduce use of gases and pesticides. (coal consumption as well as fuel consumption)
Develop new crop pattern according to climate.
Look after water resources . Also change cultivation pattern .
Enhance the natural energy resources(wind power & solar power)

THANKS

Climate change effect on agricultural sector

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