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Where is Value in Taiwan?
                by

          Frank A.Y. Wang
             President
     Athena Capital Management
             May, 2012
Our Investment Philosophy
Managing Partner’s Background
•   Columbia University, 1996 – Completed both his MS and BS degrees in four years from Columbia University
    (BS in Electrical Engineering and MS in Operations Research).

•   Morgan Stanley, 2004-2011 – Executive Director. Top ranked Taiwan Country Strategist and Asian Software
    Technology Analyst (#2 2011 institutional investor survey). Coordinate global TFT LCD supply/demand
    model among global Morgan Stanley analysts. Lead research in regional TFT LCD, semiconductor backend
    foundry, DRAM, software, and China consumer electronics industries. Lead analyst on global equity
    offerings of Himax, Inotera, Chi Mei Optoelectronics, LG Display, Innolux, Wintek, iSoftstone.

•   Credit Suisse, 2002-2004 – Vice President. Member of top ranked Asian Equity Research team (#2
    institutional investor survey 2002/2003). Coordinated global DRAM semiconductor supply/demand model
    with CSFB analysts in the US, Japan, Europe, Korea. Lead research on semiconductor backend foundry, TFT
    LCD, and DRAM companies. Lead and co-lead investment banking deals for HannStar, Macronix, ProMOS.

•   Grand Capital Group, 2000-2002 – Executive Vice President. Co-Founder of Venture Capital firm in Asia.
    Reviewed business plans around the world in sectors of
    Communications, Software, Biotechnology, Hardware, Semiconductors, Internet, Components, and New
    Businesses. Structure innovative business models and build investment management teams. Board member
    of late stage technology companies in the US and Asia and advise management.

•   Citigroup, 1999-2000 – Vice President. Pioneered Asian Technology Investment Research in Citigroup Global
    Assets Management including China, India, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc.

•   Goldman Sachs, 1996-1999 – Financial Analyst. Member of the #1 ranked (1997 Greenwich survey)
    semiconductor investment research team covered Global Semiconductor and Semiconductor Capital
    Equipment sectors. Co-published semiconductor industry trends and company reports. Member of lead
    investment banking deals on TSMC, Micron, Anadigics, SanDisk, Photronics. Interacted with leading global
    semiconductor company management.
Our Mission
1)   Value Creation – Out of ~1,500 public companies in Taiwan, only ~100 companies
     are actively covered by foreign institutions and ~300 are actively researched by
     domestic institutions.
     Athena aims to discover under-researched “future stars” from ~1,000 over-looked
     publicly listed companies and be a “friendly shareholder activist” to assist
     corporate management enhancing shareholder value through successful investor
     relations strategy and investor capital introduction.

2)   Differentiation – Taiwan is over-looked by foreign investors despite improved
     corporate governance and shareholder friendliness include high cash dividend yield
     and pay out ratio.
     Rooted in Taiwan, Athena aims to be the “gate keeper” for foreign investors in
     improving global awareness on good under-researched Taiwan companies.

3)   Integrity/Partnership – Credit is virtue. Trust is everything. Collaboration is key.
     Athena operates based on trust. Athena aims for positive market influence in Taiwan
     financial community for societal contribution.
Opportunities –
                                                     1. Taiwan is Under-valued

                                                   Low end of historical valuation…
                                                                                                         100%                                                                                   60.0
3.0                                                                                       16%
                                                                                          14%             80%
2.5                                                                                                                                                                                             40.0
                                                                                          12%             60%                                                                            26.6
2.0                                                                          9%           10%             40%                                                                                   20.0
                                                                                  1.8                                                                                             19.6
1.5                                                                                       8%              20%
                                                                            1.7 5%                                                                                                              0.0
                                                                                          6%                                                                                             15%
1.0                                                                                                         0%
                                                                                          4%
                                                                                                         -20%                                                                                   (20.0)
0.5
                                                                                          2%                                                                                     -22%
                                                                                                         -40%
0.0                                                                                       0%                                                                                                    (40.0)
                                                                                                         -60%

                                                                                                         -80%                                                                                   (60.0)

                                                                                                                                      EPS Growth(LHS)                P/E(RHS)
                                    P/B(LHS)            ROE(RHS)




      Note: 1) 2012 book value based on 1Q12 data. 2) 05/0/2012 market value. 3) Current TWSE listed companies for retrospective valuation and financials. 4) TWSE data excludes TDRs listing
      Source: Cmoney; Bloomberg;
2. Good Cash Dividend Support

                                                    High Cash Dividend Yield…
80%                                                                                                                                      6.0%

70%
                                                                                                                                         5.0%
60%                                                                                                                       4.1%   3.6%
                                                                                                                                         4.0%
50%
                                                                                                                          55%    55%
40%                                                                                                                                      3.0%

30%
                                                                                                                                         2.0%
20%
                                                                                                                                         1.0%
10%

0%                                                                                                                                       0.0%
          2001         2002          2003         2004         2005          2006     2007    2008       2009      2010   2011   2012E

                                                 Cash Dividend Payout Ratio(LHS)             Cash Dividend Yield(RHS)

Note: 1) 2001-2011 based on average cash dividend yield. 2) 05/07/2012 Market value
Source: Cmoney
3. Small & mid Cap Heaven in Greater China


                                      Good Liquidity for Small & Mid Cap stocks…

                                                                                        Average
                                                      Total Marketcap
                                                                        # Companies    Marketcap        Daily Turnover
                                                          ($US bn)
                                                                                       ($US mn)

Taiwan Stock Exchange
                                                                 703             824           756               0.6%
Taiwan OTC
                                                                   50            611               81            1.1%
Taiwan Emerging Stock Board
                                                                   18            276               65            0.1%
Shanghai A Stock
                                                              2,451              919        2,667                0.6%
Hong Kong Stock Exchange
                                                              2,005           1,491         1,345                0.3%
Note: 1) TWSE 12/30/2011 listing includes 33 TDRs
Source: Cmoney, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, HKEX
3. Small & mid Cap Heaven in Greater China


                                      Good Liquidity for Small & Mid Cap stocks…

                                                                                        Average
                                                      Total Marketcap
                                                                        # Companies    Marketcap        Daily Turnover
                                                          ($US bn)
                                                                                       ($US mn)

Taiwan Stock Exchange
                                                                 702             828           848               0.4%
Taiwan OTC
                                                                   58            607               95            0.6%
Taiwan Emerging Stock Board
                                                                   21            277               77            0.1%
Shanghai A Stock
                                                              2,671              930        2,872                0.7%
Hong Kong Stock Exchange
                                                               1505            1342          1122              0.02%
Note: 1) TWSE 05/07/2012 listing includes 33 TDRs
Source: Cmoney, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, HKEX
Catalyst - Best Investment Timing in 10 Years
                          Come out ahead in 7 years horizon

                                                       10186
                                        10116                                              9809
                                                                                                         9145
                          7124
                                                               10 years average 6700


                                                                                                          6000~7000
                                                5800
                                 4566
                                                                                                  4089
                   3135                                        3446

                            3.2x in 7 years                              2.8x in 6 years


                                                          TWSE Index
         Source: Cmoney



1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Our Approach – Find “Future Stars”
                      Marketcap   QFII Marketcap                                                                        QFII
                                                   QFII %   P/B   P/E     EV/EBITDA                       Marketcap
                      ($US mn)      ($US mn)                                                                          Marketcap
                                                                                                                                  QFII %   P/B   P/E    EV/EBITDA
1101       台泥           4,314          1,457       33.8     1.4   15.4       5.3
                                                                                                          ($US mn)    ($US mn)
1102       亞泥           3,665           648        17.7     1.3   11.2       9.3
1216       統一           7,188          3,521       49.0     2.9   22.3       8.1      1580      新麥           156        13         8.1     3.7   10.6      6.0
1301       台塑          16,322          5,936       36.4     2.1   14.3      14.9      1709      和益           277        12         4.2     1.4   10.7      6.4
1303       南亞          15,809          4,017       25.4     1.8   20.6      11.6      4401     東隆興           113         1         0.9     1.7    7.0      4.9
1326       台化          15,668          5,614       35.8     1.9   14.6      10.6      1707     葡萄王           212        17         8.1     2.9    9.7      5.4
1402      遠東新           5,142          1,063       20.7     1.5   14.9       6.8      4105      東洋           630        25         4.0     7.1   22.3     23.2
1722       台肥           2,329           875        37.6     1.4   23.4      93.8      4104      佳醫           207        13         6.2     1.1   15.6     10.4
1802       台玻           2,242           169        7.6      1.4   27.5      14.5      5211      蒙恬           42          4        10.5     2.2    6.6     11.0
2002       中鋼          14,431          1,940       13.4     1.5   22.6      10.2      3060      銘異           392        25         6.3     3.0   14.3      6.0
2105       正新           6,099           861        14.1     3.5   21.4       9.9      9955      佳龍           102         2         2.1     NM    NM       NM
2201     裕隆汽車           2,648           337        12.7     1.2   22.4       9.8      9930   中聯資源            350         7         1.9     2.6   18.0      8.5
2207      和泰車           3,459           747        21.6     3.9   16.1       6.4      8390     金益鼎           91          1         1.2     1.8    9.6     12.4
2301     光寶科技           2,788          1,176       42.2     1.2   11.7       4.4      2913      農林           309        17         5.3     0.9   38.5     NM
2303       聯電           6,355          2,974       46.8     0.9   18.6       4.2      6184     大豐電           135         5         3.4     2.6   14.3      9.6
2308      台達電           7,579          5,247       69.2     3.0   20.9       8.9      9908     大台北           324        10         3.2     1.2   14.2     13.4
2311      日月光           6,539          4,619       70.6     1.9   14.3       5.6      8926     台汽電           409        19         4.8     1.5   12.9     NM
2317       鴻海          31,533         16,069       51.0     1.7   11.8       7.3      4927     KY泰鼎          142        73        51.2     2.1   10.3      4.7
2324       仁寶           5,027          2,964       59.0     1.5   14.0       6.4      1704      榮化          1,252       305       24.3     1.7    9.5     13.6
2325       矽品           3,563          1,981       55.6     1.8   22.2       5.3      2448      晶電          2,123       799       37.7     1.4   25.5     13.6
2330      台積電          72,923         56,122       77.0     3.6   16.9       7.5      3490      單井           25          0         0.1     1.0   12.6      6.0
2347       聯強           3,673          1,888       51.4     2.5   15.0      23.7      1590      Airtac       865        692       80.0     4.9   14.2      9.8
2353       宏碁           3,214          1,177       36.6     1.3    NM        NM       6153     嘉聯益           477        49        10.2     2.0    9.9      5.6
2354       鴻準           4,085          1,070       26.2     2.3   15.7       9.1      3293      鈊象           334        29         8.8     3.0    8.9     11.1
2357       華碩           8,155          4,326       53.1     2.1   14.4       6.7      8044   網路家庭            432        146       33.8     9.7   24.8     19.1
2382       廣達          10,498          3,999       38.1     2.8   14.4      11.0      8255      朋程           204         2         1.1     2.7   13.4      8.9
2409       友達           3,928          1,410       35.9     0.6    NM        9.0      6116      彩晶           572        66        11.5     0.6   NM       34.0
2412      中華電          23,557          3,835       16.3     1.9   15.1       8.1             Simple Avg      407        93        13.1     2.6   14.5     11.1
2454      聯發科          10,136          3,428       33.8     2.7   22.8      15.9
2474       可成           4,880          2,117       43.4     2.7   14.2       5.6      3044      健鼎          1,559       980       62.8     2.1   10.7      3.8
2498      宏達電          12,782          6,861       53.7     4.0    6.5       4.8      6153     嘉聯益           477        49        10.2     2.0    9.9      5.6
2801       彰銀           3,644           376        10.3     1.2   12.4      89.5      8072      陞泰           326        11         3.4     2.2   11.4      5.3
2880      華南金           4,518           492        10.9     1.1   16.1      81.4      2107      厚生           323        28         8.8     1.1    4.2      5.8
2881      富邦金           9,084          1,964       21.6     1.2    9.1      29.7      1337     F-亞塑          434        312       71.9     2.3    9.4      3.8
2882      國泰金          10,737          1,805       16.8     1.5   29.5       NM       3030      德律           278        19         6.7     1.9    9.6      3.8
2883      開發金           2,869           445        15.5     0.7   53.8      381.2     6146      耕興           184        56        30.3     3.0   12.6      6.4
2885      元大金           4,557          1,444       31.7     0.9   10.6      84.5
                                                                                      1707     葡萄王           212        17         8.1     2.9    9.7      5.4
2886      兆豐金           8,404          2,025       24.1     1.2   14.3       NM
                                                                                      8210      勤誠           144        14        10.0     2.1    9.0      5.3
2890     永豐金控           2,485           777        31.3     0.9   25.4      54.7
                                                                                      2114     鑫永銓           126         1         1.2     2.4    8.6      5.9
2891      中信金           7,561          3,435       45.4     1.3   12.6      79.1
                                                                                      2420      新巨           123         1         1.2     1.6    7.5      5.0
2892      第一金           4,420           750        17.0     1.1   17.9      96.2
                                                                                      3527      聚積           154         3         2.2     3.0   15.4      5.2
2912      統一超           5,527          2,225       40.3     8.2   26.8      12.3
                                                                                      3213      茂訊           102         4         4.1     2.7    9.8      6.8
3008      大立光           2,117           546        25.8     3.2   12.4      11.7
                                                                                      3611      鼎翰           102         1         0.8     3.0    8.9      6.0
3045      台灣大          10,639          3,566       33.5     6.6   23.9      12.2
                                                                                      8114     振樺電           114         8         6.7     2.8    9.5      5.3
3231       緯創           3,109          1,869       60.1     1.5   10.5       5.1
                                                                                      5490      同亨           96         11        11.9     1.8    8.7      4.7
3481     奇美電子           3,047           622        20.4     0.5    NM        8.0
                                                                                      8103      瀚荃           108         8         7.1     1.9    9.0      3.2
3673      F-TPK         2,926          1,844       63.0     3.1    8.0       6.6
                                                                                      3332      幸康           74          0         0.1     1.7    8.5      6.5
4904       遠傳           7,027          2,855       40.6     2.9   23.8       7.8
                                                                                      8091      翔名           96          1         0.9     2.9    9.8      5.0
5880      合庫金           3,903           452        11.6     1.0   459.8      NM
                                                                                      3526      凡甲           74          0         0.2     1.9   10.6      3.4
6505      台塑化          27,689          1,944       7.0      3.9   38.3      21.3
                                                                                      5439      高技           63          0         0.1     1.5    6.5      3.4
                                                                                      6218   豪勉科技            56          0         0.1     1.7   13.0      6.9
       TWSE 50 Sum     444,795       177,884       40.0     2.0   19.3       8.9
                                                                                      3390      旭軟           62          0         0.2     1.9    6.9      3.9
          TWSE         688,337       226,463       32.9     1.5   15.3      13.2
                                                                                      3563      牧德           58          2         4.2     3.2    9.0      5.9
                                                                                      4429      聚紡           46          2         3.3     1.3   13.2      4.6
                                                                                             Simple Avg      216        61        10.3     2.2    9.6      5.1
 Note: 1) 05/07/2012 stock price and 2012 consensus forecast
 Source: Cmoney, TWSE
Our Approach – Find “Future Stars”
                       Marketcap      QFII Marketcap                                                                         QFII
                                                        QFII %   P/B    P/E    EV/EBITDA                       Marketcap
                       ($US mn)         ($US mn)                                                                           Marketcap
                                                                                                                                       QFII %   P/B   P/E    EV/EBITDA
1101       台泥               4,548              1,609      35.4    1.4   16.7        7.4                        ($US mn)    ($US mn)
1102       亞泥               3,754                683      18.2    1.4   14.3       11.3
1216       統一               6,476              3,012      46.5    3.0   19.0        9.0    1580      新麥           139         11       8.0      3.6   10.2     7.0
                                                                                           1709      和益           270         11       4.2      1.4   9.1      6.4
1301       台塑              17,853              6,747      37.8    2.0   11.4       14.3
                                                                                           4401     東隆興           112         0        0.4      1.4   6.0      4.3
1303       南亞              16,437              4,325      26.3    1.8   12.1       11.5
                                                                                           1707     葡萄王           194         13       6.5      2.4   11.2     5.3
1326       台化              16,427              6,068      36.9    1.7    9.9       10.1
                                                                                           4105      東洋           647         29       4.5      5.9   11.1     19.4
1402      遠東新               6,032              1,335      22.1    1.8   13.9        7.7
                                                                                           4104      佳醫           237         18       7.4      1.3   11.0     9.5
1722       台肥               2,558              1,014      39.7    1.4   41.2       91.5
                                                                                           5211      蒙恬            47         5        10.5     2.1   17.9     12.2
1802       台玻               2,602                194       7.5    1.6   14.1        9.7
                                                                                           3060      銘異           347         22       6.2      2.1   12.1     6.5
2002       中鋼              14,909              1,889      12.7    1.6   11.6       10.2    9955      佳龍           111         2        1.8      1.2   NM       21.8
2105       正新               5,613                808      14.4    3.7   16.3        9.3    9930    中聯資源           302         5        1.7      2.3   13.8     9.3
2201     裕隆汽車               3,214                450      14.0    1.4   21.1       13.5    8390     金益鼎            84         1        1.2      1.5   9.8      11.3
2301     光寶科技               2,781              1,166      41.9    1.2    9.2        3.0    2913      農林           308         14       4.6      0.7   38.9     NM
2303       聯電               6,673              2,933      44.0    0.9    7.8        4.0    6184     大豐電           123         4        3.0      2.4   12.7     10.1
2308      台達電               6,329              4,251      67.2    2.5   12.2       16.1    9908     大台北           314         9        3.0      1.1   15.1     12.7
2311      日月光               6,318              4,390      69.5    2.1   10.2        5.8    8926     台汽電           401         17       4.2      1.4   10.6     NM
2317       鴻海              34,027             16,581      48.7    2.0   12.2        9.8    4927     KY泰鼎          123         61       49.3     1.6   7.1      5.0
2324       仁寶               4,998              2,822      56.5    1.2    6.0        6.6    1704      榮化          1,529       369       24.2     1.8   11.1     11.6
2325       矽品               3,361              1,897      56.5    1.6   17.0        6.9    2448      晶電          2,139       837       39.1     1.3   8.1      10.5
2330      台積電              66,084             49,972      75.6    3.5   12.3        6.8    3490      單井            25         0         0       0.9   12.1     6.0
2347       聯強               3,808              2,112      55.5    3.3   21.7       26.8    1590      Airtac       805        618       76.8     3.8   10.0     9.0
2353       宏碁               3,790              1,370      36.2    1.1    6.8      171.3    6153     嘉聯益           541        116       21.5     2.2   12.1     5.3
2354       鴻準               4,769              1,350      28.3    2.4   15.6        9.4    3293      鈊象           490         39       8.0      4.8   12.7     12.2
2357       華碩               6,098              2,798      45.9    1.6   10.5        6.8    8044    網路家庭           408        133       32.7     8.8   14.7     20.5
2382       廣達               8,706              3,017      34.7    2.2   13.5       13.6    8255      朋程           258         3        1.1      3.0   16.5     9.7
2409       友達               4,914              1,810      36.8    0.5   19.5        9.5    6116      彩晶           482         59       12.2     0.4   NM       8.0
2412      中華電              24,746              5,454      22.0    2.0   15.6        7.1           Simple Avg      417         96       13.8     2.4   12.8     10.2
2454      聯發科              11,169              4,044      36.2    2.7    9.7       22.6
2474       可成               4,654              2,083      44.8    3.8   28.4        5.2    3044      健鼎          1,489       837       56.2     1.9   8.3       3.8
2498      宏達電              16,502              9,040      54.8    5.6   10.5        8.9    6153     嘉聯益           541        116       21.5     2.2   12.1      5.3
                                                                                           8072      陞泰           322         9        2.7      2.1   10.4      5.9
2801       彰銀               4,095                433      10.6    1.2   13.8      152.1
                                                                                           2107      厚生           344         26       7.6      1.1   7.4       5.8
2880      華南金               4,792                491      10.3    1.3   21.9      121.6
                                                                                           1337     F-亞塑          338        244       72.2     1.8   8.5       3.7
2881      富邦金              10,621              2,455      23.1    1.3   14.0       79.7
                                                                                           3030      德律           268         14       5.2      1.6   5.9       3.7
2882      國泰金              12,066              2,079      17.2    1.5   72.4      NM
                                                                                           6146      耕興           173         49       28.2     2.7   9.8       6.1
2883      開發金               3,769                584      15.5    0.7   10.7      629.9
                                                                                           1707     葡萄王           194         13       6.5      2.4   11.2      5.3
2885      元大金               5,910              2,058      34.8    1.3   19.2      141.8
                                                                                           8210      勤誠           139         14       10.0     1.9   7.8       4.0
2886      兆豐金               8,329              1,907      22.9    1.1   14.2      NM       2114     鑫永銓           124         1        1.2      2.2   8.5       6.1
2888      新光金               2,691                646      24.0    0.8   28.3      NM       2420      新巨           118         1        1.0      1.4   6.8       4.0
2890     永豐金控               2,458                757      30.8    0.7   12.6       96.5    3527      聚積           127         1        1.1      2.4   9.7       6.0
2891      中信金               7,956              3,730      46.9    1.3   14.4       87.7    3213      茂訊           108         4        3.7      2.9   9.4       6.7
2892      第一金               4,957                807      16.3    1.2   18.7      154.8    3611      鼎翰           106         1        1.0      3.1   9.2       5.7
2912      統一超               5,614              2,278      40.6    8.3   29.4       10.6    8114     振樺電           102         7        6.6      2.5   8.6       5.9
3008      大立光               3,116              1,092      35.1    4.8   19.5       14.2    5490      同亨           102         13       12.3     1.8   9.0       4.3
3045      台灣大              10,148              3,270      32.2    6.2   22.7       10.2    8103      瀚荃            92         3        3.6      1.5   6.2       3.7
3231       緯創               3,127              1,759      56.3    1.5    7.3        7.0    3332      幸康            74         0        0.1      1.7   10.8      6.5
3481     奇美電子               3,827                798      20.9    0.4   NM         13.7    8091      翔名            88         2        2.1      2.5   8.2       5.2
3673        TPK             3,733              2,676      71.7    6.1   19.1        8.4    3526      凡甲            83         0        0.1      1.9   10.4      3.8
4904       遠傳               6,159              2,098      34.1    2.5   20.4        5.8    5439      高技            62         0        0.2      1.4   6.8       3.6
5880      合庫金               4,233                474      11.2   NM     NM        NM       6218    豪勉科技            62         0        0.5      1.6   6.3       4.8
6505      台塑化              28,387              1,947       6.9    3.5   21.2       16.0    3390      旭軟            63         0        0.1      1.9   7.4       4.3
        TWSE 50 Sum       456,133            177,564      38.9    1.9   13.8       10.1    3563      牧德            53         2        3.5      2.3   7.2       5.2
           TWSE           703,607            225,576      32.1    1.4   14.7       16.5    4429      聚紡            46         1        2.8      1.7   8.6       4.9
                                                                                                  Simple Avg      209         54       10.0     2.0   8.6       5.0

  Note: 1) 02/04/2012 stock price and 2012 consensus forecast
  Source: Cmoney, TWSE
Value Creation
                     – Institutionalizing New Markets for Best Return
                                                                                            Bridging Foreign investors
  Market                                              Institutionalizing an                 for sustainable long term gain
  Value                                               Under-research market

Foreign             Partnering with
Investor            Venture Capitalists
Research                                                                                                 Foreign Investor
coverage            for Early Understanding
                                                                                                         Research
Domestic                                                                                                 Coverage
Research
coverage
                                                                                      Domestic           Low risk;
Public                                                                                                   Low return
Listing                                                                               Research
                              High risk;                                              Coverage
                              Not sure high return          Under Research
Emerging
Stock Board                                                         Low risk;          Medium risk
Listing                                                             Good return        Medium return

                             Venture Capital

                                                      EM Stock   Public           2 years        Sufficient           Time
              Corporation formation
                                                      Board      Listing          Listing        Track record
Where is Value in Taiwan?
EXAMPLE 1 – HANNSTAR 彩晶 (6116 TT)

                                                     Private Equity Put?

HANNSTAR VALUATION

Marketcap ($US mn)                                                                                                           518

Net Debt ($US mn)                                                                                                            117

Enterprise Value ($US mn)                                                                                                    635

2011(E) Sales ($US mn)                                                                                                      1,390

Book Value ($US mn)                                                                                                         1,280

2011(E) Operating Cash Flow ($US mn)                                                                                         132

Net PP&E ($US mn)                                                                                                           1,179

Short Term Investments ($US mn)                                                                                               51

P/B                                                                                                                          0.4x

EV/Book                                                                                                                      0.5x

EV/Operating Cash Flow                                                                                                       4.8x
Note: 1) 2011(E) Operating Cash Flow uses Annualized 1Q-3Q11 OPCF. 2) 02/04/2012 stock price. 3) 3Q11 Balance Sheet Data.
Source: Cmoney;
EXAMPLE 2 – GRAPE KING 葡萄王 (1707 TT)
                                  1) Healthcare Food for Aging Population Trend;
                              2) Largest Home-Made Direct-Sales Network in Taiwan;
                        3) Only Listed Company in Taiwan with Direct Sales Business Model


 GRAPEKING VALUATION
 Marketcap ($US mn)                                                             191                                                    Cash
                                                                                                       Marketcap
 Net Debt ($US mn)                                                              (17)                                       P/E        Dividend
                                                                                                       ($US bn)
                                                                                                                                       Yield
 Enterprise Value ($US mn)                                                      174
 2011(E) Sales ($US mn)                                                         123
 2011(E) Sales Growth                                                          14%        Herbal
                                                                                                            6.4            18x            2%
 2011(E) Direct Sales ($US mn)                                                  100        Life
 2011(E) Direct Sales Growth                                                   20%
 2005-2010 Sales CAGR                                                          17%
                                                                                         Nu Skin            3.0            22x            1%
 2005-2010 EPS CAGR                                                            24%
 2012(E) P/E                                                                  12.8x
 2012(E) PEG                                                                    0.8x      Grape
                                                                                                           0.17            10x            7%
                                                                                          King
 EV/EBITDA                                                                    6.45x
Note: 1) 2011(E) Sales based on annualized 1Q-3Q11 sales. 2) 2011 Sales growth based on Jan-Oct 2011 sales growth. 3) 02/04/2012 stock price. 4)
3Q11 Balance Sheet Data.
Source: Cmoney; Company; Google Finance
EXAMPLE 3 – JYD 金益鼎 (8390 TT)
          Recycling – Alchemist Turns Electronics Wastes into Precious Metals
JYD VALUATION                                                                    EPS

Marketcap ($US mn)                                                  83             1Q08         2Q08            3Q08    4Q08          2008

Net Debt ($US mn)                                                   25              0.61          0.7           0.78    (0.7)          1.4

                                                                                   1Q09         2Q09            3Q09    4Q09          2009
Enterprise Value ($US mn)                                          108
                                                                                       0.1       0.43           0.5     0.53           1.6
2011(E) Sales ($US mn)                                             124
                                                                                   1Q10         2Q10            3Q10    4Q10          2010
Book Value ($US mn)                                                 50
                                                                                    0.42         0.69           0.55     0.4           2.1
P/B                                                               1.5x
                                                                                   1Q11         2Q11            3Q11   4Q11(E)       2011(E)
EV/Book                                                             2x
                                                                                    0.73         0.94           0.92     0.4           3.0
EV/EBITDA                                                          11x
                                                                                  1Q12(F)      2Q12(F)      3Q12(F)    4Q12(F)       2012(F)
2011 ROE(E)                                                       15%
                                                                                       0.5        0.6            1       1.5           3.6


2.50
                                                                                                          Low Gold              High Gold
2.00
                                                                                                            Price                 Price
1.50

1.00                                                                              High Factory
                                                                                                                OK                BEST
0.50                                                                               Utilization

0.00
  2008/5 2008/11 2009/5 2009/11 2010/5 2010/11 2011/5 2011/11                      Low Factory
                                                                                                                 X               GOOD
                                                                                    Utilization
               JYD (8390 TT)       TWSE INDEX            GOLD

Note: 1) 02/04/2012 stock price. 2) 3Q11 Balance Sheet Data. 3) EV/EBITDA is based on annualized 1Q-3Q11 data
Source: Cmoney, JYD
EXAMPLE 6 – Wahlee 華立 (3010 TT)


                                                                                         200                                                                      3
                                                                                                                                                                  2.5
 WAHLEE VALUATION                                                                        150                                                                      2
                                                                                                                                                                  1.5
                                                                                         100                                                                      1
 Marketcap ($US mn)                                                            319                                                                                0.5
                                                                                          50                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                  -0.5
 Net Debt ($US mn)                                                             132         0                                                                      -1


 Enterprise Value ($US mn)                                                     451
                                                                                                    Stock Price                     Quaterly EPS(RHS)
 2011(E) Sales ($US mn)                                                      1,042                  Linear (Quaterly EPS(RHS))

                                                                                         160                                                                       20.0%
 Book Value ($US mn)                                                           253       140
                                                                                         120                                                                       15.0%
                                                                                         100
 P/E                                                                          7.8x        80                                                                       10.0%
                                                                                          60
                                                                                          40                                                                       5.0%
 P/B                                                                          1.2x        20
                                                                                           0                                                                       0.0%
 EV/Book                                                                      1.6x

 2011 ROE(E)                                                                  16%               Stock Price(LHS)                       Cash Dividend Yield(RHS)
                                                                                                Linear (Cash Dividend Yield(RHS))
Note: 1) 02/04/2012 stock price. 2) 3Q11 Balance Sheet Data. 3) Assume same payout ratio in 2012.
Source: Cmoney;
What’s the Risk?
1. Where are Foreign Investors?
                                                  QFII holding is plateauing…


300                                                                        40%   60                                                                 90%
                                 TWSE                                                                           TSMC
                                                                                                                                            77%     80%
                                                                  33% 35%
250     $US bn                                                                   50     $US bn
                                                                                                                                                    70%
                                                                           30%
200                                                                              40                                                                 60%
                                                                           25%
                                                                                                                                                    50%
150                                                                        20%   30
                                                                                                                                                    40%
                                                                           15%
100                                                                              20                                                                 30%
                                                                           10%
                                                                                                                                                    20%
 50                                                                              10
                                                                           5%                                                                       10%

  0                                                                        0%     0                                                                 0%
      2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012                     2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

             QFII Amount(LHS)           QFII Holding of TWSE(RHS)                            QFII Amount(LHS)          QFII Holding of TSMC(RHS)

       Note: 1) 2001~2011 Year end positions. 2) 05/07/2012 stock price.
       Source: Cmoney
2. Where is Trading Volume?
                                                             Lowest turnover ever…

$US bn
    5.0                                                                                                                                                                         1.0%
                                                                                                      4.5
    4.5                                                                                                                                                                         0.9%
                   0.9%                      0.9%                                                                               4.0
    4.0      3.8                0.8%                                                                                                         3.8                       3.8      0.8%
                                                          0.8%                                                     3.6                                    3.6
                                                                                                                                      0.7%
    3.5                                                          3.2 0.7%                3.3                                                                                    0.7%
                                       2.9                                                                  0.6%
    3.0                                             2.7                                        0.6%                      0.6%                                                    0.6%
                          2.5                                               2.6                                                                    0.6%                      0.6%
                                                                                  0.5%
    2.5                                                                                                                                                         0.5%             0.5%

    2.0                                                                                                                                                                         0.4%

    1.5                                                                                                                                                                         0.3%

    1.0                                                                                                                                                                         0.2%

    0.5                                                                                                                                                                         0.1%

    0.0                                                                                                                                                                         0.0%
            2000      2001         2002         2003         2004       2005         2006         2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012

                                                Average Trading Volume(LHS)                             Average Turnover Rate(RHS)


Note: 1) 2012 data is based on Jan12. 2) 05/07/2012 stock price.
Source: Cmoney
3. Where is Confidence?
                         Foreign investors put on Taiwan despite up in the US…
1.2
                                                             3,500                                                                                                                                                             40,000
1.1                                                          3,000                                                                                                                                                             35,000
                                                     1.09                                                                                                                                                                      30,000
1.0                                                          2,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               25,000
                                                             2,000
0.9                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20,000
                                                             1,500
0.8                                                  0.86                                                                                                                                                                      15,000
                                                             1,000                                                                                                                                                             10,000
0.7                                                           500                                                                                                                                                              5,000
0.6                                                             0                                                                                                                                                              0




                                                                                                          May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-12
                                                                                                                                                                         Dec-11
                                                                                                                                     Aug-11
                                                                      Jan-11
                                                                               Feb-11


                                                                                                 Apr-11




                                                                                                                                              Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                       Oct-11




                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-12
                                                                                        Mar-11




                                                                                                                            Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-12
                                                                                                                   Jun-11




                                                                                                                                                                Nov-11
                    NASDAQ Index       TWSE Index                    NASDAQ Index(LHS)                                               QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS)

1.1                                                          9,500                                                                                                                                                             35,000
1.1                                                          9,000                                                                                                                                                             30,000
1.0                                                          8,500
1.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                            25,000
                                                             8,000
0.9                                                   0.86                                                                                                                                                                     20,000
                                                             7,500
0.9
                                                             7,000                                                                                                                                                             15,000
0.8
                                                             6,500
0.8                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10,000
0.7                                                          6,000
                                                             5,500                                                                                                                                                             5,000
0.7
0.6                                                          5,000                                                                                                                                                             0


                                                                                                          May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-12
                                                                                                                                                                         Dec-11
                                                                                                                                     Aug-11
                                                                      Jan-11
                                                                               Feb-11


                                                                                                 Apr-11




                                                                                                                                              Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                       Oct-11




                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-12
                                                                                        Mar-11




                                                                                                                            Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-12
                                                                                                                   Jun-11




                                                                                                                                                                Nov-11
                    Shanghai A Index    TWSE Index                         TWSE(LHS)                                        QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS)
 Note: 05/07/2012 stock price.
 Source: Cmoney ;
3. Where is Confidence?
                         Foreign investors put on Taiwan despite up in the US…
  1.1
                                                                  3,000                                                                 40,000

  1.0                                                      1.07                                                                         35,000
                                                                  2,500
                                                                                                                                        30,000
                                                                  2,000
  0.9                                                                                                                                   25,000
                                                                  1,500                                                                 20,000
  0.8                                                      0.89
                                                                                                                                        15,000
                                                                  1,000
                                                                                                                                        10,000
  0.7
                                                                   500
                                                                                                                                        5,000
  0.6                                                                0                                                                  0




                          NASDAQ Index      TWSE Index                    NASDAQ Index(LHS)       QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS)

                                                                  9,500                                                                 35,000
   1.2
                                                                  9,000
                                                                                                                                        30,000
   1.1
                                                                  8,500
                                                                                                                                        25,000
   1.0                                                            8,000

                                                                  7,500                                                                 20,000
   0.9                                                    0.89
                                                                  7,000                                                                 15,000
   0.8                                                            6,500
                                                          0.84                                                                          10,000
                                                                  6,000
   0.7
                                                                                                                                        5,000
                                                                  5,500
   0.6
                                                                  5,000                                                                 0




                         Shanghai A Index    TWSE Index
                                                                              TWSE(LHS)       QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS)
Note: 02/10/2012 stock price.
Source: Cmoney ;
2020 VISION

Taiwan is the cheapest “Greater China” play with value &
potentials.

1. Taiwan Will Transcend – The foreigner who understands
   the best of China; The Chinese who understands the best of
   the world.

2. Election Matters Less – 2 years cycle; 2014 next on local;
   2016 next on President and Congress; Higher opportunity
   cost for politicians to execute on plans.

3. Wealth Creation – Urban Renewal; More International
   Visitors; Infrastructure Spending.
Case Study - HannStar
What’s the Future?
                 A Lost Decade? HannStar Stock Price since IPO…

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

 5                                                                                                                           05/07/2012
                                                                                                                             Stock price: 2.95

 0
8/17/2001   8/17/2002   8/17/2003   8/17/2004   8/17/2005   8/17/2006   8/17/2007   8/17/2008   8/17/2009   8/17/2010   8/17/2011



Source: Cmoney
HannStar is Under-valued

                                     HannStar      HannStar              AUO                 CMI              CPT            E ink
3Q11
                                   (Parent Only) (Consolidated)      (Consolidated)      (Consolidated)   (Consolidated) (Consolidated)
Marketcap ($US mn)                            367            518                 4,355              3,169            294           1,388
EV ($US mn)                                   267            484                 8,853             12,347          1,163           1,541
Book value/share (TWD)                         5.4           5.4                  25.5               29.7             5.6           24.9

Cash ($US mn)                                  168             493               2,781             2,061             580            243
Debt ($US mn)                                   68             610               7,278            11,239           1,449            396
Net Debt ($US mn)                            (100)             117               4,498             9,178             869            153

Investments for sale ($US mn)                  21               49                  24                53              27             12
PP&E ($US mn)                                 627            1,179              11,986            14,097           2,246            311
Book ($US mn)                               1,047            1,047               7,505             7,229           1,219            898

OPCF (1Q-3Q11) ($US mn)                         70              99                 236                118              32            147
Capex (1Q-3Q11) ($US mn)                      (61)           (312)             (1,469)            (1,302)            (79)           (65)
FCF (1Q-3Q11) ($US mn)                           9           (213)             (1,233)            (1,185)            (47)             81

P/B                                            0.4             0.4                 0.6                0.4            0.2             1.5
EV/Book                                        0.3             0.5                 1.2                1.7            1.0             1.7
EV/OPCF                                        2.9             3.7                28.1               78.4           27.3             7.1

Net Debt/Equity %                              (10)              11                60                 127              71            17
Net Debt/Marketcap %                           (40)              47               120                 320             372            10
Note: 1) 3Q11 Consolidated data. 2) OPCF, Capex, and FCF based on 1Q-3Q11 accumulated Data. 3) 1/18/2012 stock price.
Source: Cmoney;
What’s Next? What to Do?
            Management Buy Out – More Incentives! Partnership!

                                            Core
                                        Shareholders                                   Core Shareholders                  Private
                                            25%                                               25%                         Equity
                                                                                                                           40%                      Core
                                                               Debt Leverage                                                                    Shareholders
                                                                   50%                         Management +                                         50%
                                                                                                  Employee
                                                                                                    5%
                          Others                                                     Private Equity
                           75%                                                            20%
                                                                                                                              Management
                                                                                                                              + Employee
                                                                                                                                 10%



Equity Valuation                   $US 500 mn                                  $US 1 bn                                             $US 500 mn
     Net Debt                                                                                                                       $US 500 mn


Management Buy Out                                                                                                                         $US 1 bn Valuation
Corporate Structure                  Pre-MBO Equity          Post-MBO Equity                                                                            Capital
                                          Holding %                Holding %
Core Shareholder Base                                  25%                     50%
Employee                                               2%                      4%                  $US 20 mn (interest free loan ~$US100/mth - 3 years)
Management                                             3%                      6%                          $US 30 mn (management bonus; 3 years lock up)
Private Equity Investor                                20%                     40%                                                                $US 200 mn
Debt Leverage                                          50%                                                                                      $US 500 mn
                                                                                                              (4% interest = $US20 mn interest expense/year)

Source: Athena
Wealth Creation

Entry – Private Company Valuation                       Exit (3 years) – New Public Company Valuation (IPO)
(NT$5.5/share - De-Listing)                             (NT$22/share – Re-Listing)
Enterprise Value                         $US 1 bn       Enterprise Value                               $US 2 bn
EBITDA                                 $US 150 mn       EBITDA                                      $US 250 mn
EV/EBITDA                                     6.5x      EV/EBITDA                                              8x
EV/Book                                       0.8x      EV/Book                                               1.1x
Net DEBT                               $US 500 mn       Net DEBT                                                   0
EQUITY                                 $US 500 mn       EQUITY                                         $US 2 bn


Wealth Creation
Corporate Structure           Today       Equity     Post-MBO           Equity          Equity        Wealth
                                        Valuation       Equity       Valuation       Valuation       Creation
                                         (Today)     Holding %     (Post MBO)         (3 years)
Core Shareholder Base           25%    $US125 mn          50%       $US250 mn         $US1 bn                 8x
Employee                                                   4%        $US20 mn       $US80 mn         Very large
Management                                                 6%        $US30 mn      $US120 mn         Very large
Private Equity Investor                                   40%       $US200 mn      $US800 mn                  4x
Total Equity Valuation                 $US500 mn                    $US500 mn         $US2 bn                 4x
Source: Athena
Conglomerate Risk?
$US mn                                      Group Marketcap Lowest Ever…
  18,000
  16,000
  14,000
  12,000
  10,000
   8,000
   6,000
   4,000
   2,000
       0
              2000       2001        2002       2003        2004      2005        2006       2007         2008     2009        2010       2011


                                                       華新     華邦電      華新科       瀚宇博德        彩晶

                                  Mktcap                                                                                         Conglomerate
   Ticker            Name                        P/S        P/B     P/E       EV/Book        EV/EBITDA           EV/OPCF
                                 ($US mn)                                                                                          Holdings
  1605 TT        華新麗華              1,121         0.2x       0.5x    32x          1.1x               32x             221x              ~20%
  2344 TT            華邦電            517          0.4x       0.4x    34x          0.7x               2x               3x               ~30%
  2492 TT            華新科            181          0.2x       0.4x    N.A.         0.6x               3x               8x               ~35%
  6116 TT        瀚宇彩晶               367          0.2x       0.4x    N.A.         0.5x               8x               4x               ~25%
  5469 TT        瀚宇博德               185          0.1x       0.5x    12x          1.7x               5x               10x              ~50%

Note: 1) Based on 1/18/2012 stock price. 2) 3Q11 Book value. 3) Annualized Jan-Oct11 sales for sales calculation. 4) Annualized 1Q-3Q11 EBITDA
Source: Cmoney;
瀚宇博德 Put in HK
Taking Advantage of Capital Market when Market is Insufficient
        (47% Price Premium to De-List – 1x EV/Book)

HKD/USD                                                                                                               7.8
Buyout Stock Price ($HK)                                                                         1.25 (Price Premium 47%)
# of Shares (mn)                                                                                                   1,316
Marketcap ($US mn)                                                                                                   211
Net Debt ($US mn)                                                                                                    167
Enterprise Value ($US mn)                                                                                            377
Book Value ($US mn)                                                                                                  376
Net Income ($US mn)                                                                                                   (1)
Operating Cash Flow ($US mn)                                                                                          41
P/E                                                                                                                 N.A.
P/B                                                                                                                  0.6x
EV/Book                                                                                                               1x
EV/OPCF                                                                                                              9.3x
Note: 1) Annualized 1H11 Operating cash flow. 2) 1H11 Book value. 3) Annualized 1H11 earnings.
Source: Company
Shareholder Value?
                 Today’s Value is Well below any Time in History…
                   Make a Cornerstone Case! Re-set Benchmarks

                                                                % of current total   % of 1/15/2012
   Date           Action    Price   Share(k)   Amount(TWD mn)
                                                                     shares           Marketcap



 2005/3/1    海外存託憑證         10.66   768,000         8,187             1.3%               75%


2008/8/22 Shares Buyback    7.13    255,000         1,818             0.4%               17%


2008/10/14 Shares Buyback   4.27     40,899         175               0.1%                2%


2011/1/27         私募         5      634,050         3,170             1.1%               29%


Source: Cmoney
Size no longer Matters…
 Why Build Big Fabs? Why Sell Big Screens?
                          Small is Better than Large…




                                HTC 4.3” Sensation   Sharp 42” 1080p 60Hz LCD TV
Viewing Angle                                  1x                             100x
Price                                     $US 435      $US 199 (Black Friday Price)

Source: Bestbuy; Amazon
Taiwan no longer has Cheap Capital…
                             Business Model has changed!

                                               60% 京東方能源 stake
                                               in exchange for 2.7 bn RMB cash
                                                                                     北京工業發展


  1 billion tons coal mining right in exchange for               0.45 billion
  5.5G AM-OLED line setup (22 bn RMB investments)                tons coal mining right
                                         京東方A(BOE)
     內蒙古
                                          控股子公司                                           京東方能源
    鄂爾多斯
                                          京東方光電




                                                                                          昊華能源
                                              20% 京東方能源 stake
                                              in exchange for 0.9 bn RMB cash
Source: BOE
Investing in Branding & Bottlenecks;
                           not in Factories Expansion…
                                              Key Technology bottlenecks
                                QHD IPS, AMOLED, 3D, Flexible Display, 10 fingers Touch,
                                        (high resolution, paper-like, multi-view)…

                                                                       Capex is Commodity; no innovation
                                                                       Don’t do capex unless 1) Monopoly
                                                                       2) Can be TSMC or Samsung
                 Supply Chain




                                                                       – Unforgiven Road
                                   Factory
                                                  Capex       R&D
                                                                            R&D is Innovation
                                                                            A chance to disrupt industry
                                                                            for windfall profits

                                   Branding (Customer Relationships)
                  Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, SoftBank, Nintendo, Intel, IBM, …
                 China, India, Brazil, Russia, Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe…
Source: Athena

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Bloomberg presentation

  • 1. Where is Value in Taiwan? by Frank A.Y. Wang President Athena Capital Management May, 2012
  • 3. Managing Partner’s Background • Columbia University, 1996 – Completed both his MS and BS degrees in four years from Columbia University (BS in Electrical Engineering and MS in Operations Research). • Morgan Stanley, 2004-2011 – Executive Director. Top ranked Taiwan Country Strategist and Asian Software Technology Analyst (#2 2011 institutional investor survey). Coordinate global TFT LCD supply/demand model among global Morgan Stanley analysts. Lead research in regional TFT LCD, semiconductor backend foundry, DRAM, software, and China consumer electronics industries. Lead analyst on global equity offerings of Himax, Inotera, Chi Mei Optoelectronics, LG Display, Innolux, Wintek, iSoftstone. • Credit Suisse, 2002-2004 – Vice President. Member of top ranked Asian Equity Research team (#2 institutional investor survey 2002/2003). Coordinated global DRAM semiconductor supply/demand model with CSFB analysts in the US, Japan, Europe, Korea. Lead research on semiconductor backend foundry, TFT LCD, and DRAM companies. Lead and co-lead investment banking deals for HannStar, Macronix, ProMOS. • Grand Capital Group, 2000-2002 – Executive Vice President. Co-Founder of Venture Capital firm in Asia. Reviewed business plans around the world in sectors of Communications, Software, Biotechnology, Hardware, Semiconductors, Internet, Components, and New Businesses. Structure innovative business models and build investment management teams. Board member of late stage technology companies in the US and Asia and advise management. • Citigroup, 1999-2000 – Vice President. Pioneered Asian Technology Investment Research in Citigroup Global Assets Management including China, India, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc. • Goldman Sachs, 1996-1999 – Financial Analyst. Member of the #1 ranked (1997 Greenwich survey) semiconductor investment research team covered Global Semiconductor and Semiconductor Capital Equipment sectors. Co-published semiconductor industry trends and company reports. Member of lead investment banking deals on TSMC, Micron, Anadigics, SanDisk, Photronics. Interacted with leading global semiconductor company management.
  • 4. Our Mission 1) Value Creation – Out of ~1,500 public companies in Taiwan, only ~100 companies are actively covered by foreign institutions and ~300 are actively researched by domestic institutions. Athena aims to discover under-researched “future stars” from ~1,000 over-looked publicly listed companies and be a “friendly shareholder activist” to assist corporate management enhancing shareholder value through successful investor relations strategy and investor capital introduction. 2) Differentiation – Taiwan is over-looked by foreign investors despite improved corporate governance and shareholder friendliness include high cash dividend yield and pay out ratio. Rooted in Taiwan, Athena aims to be the “gate keeper” for foreign investors in improving global awareness on good under-researched Taiwan companies. 3) Integrity/Partnership – Credit is virtue. Trust is everything. Collaboration is key. Athena operates based on trust. Athena aims for positive market influence in Taiwan financial community for societal contribution.
  • 5. Opportunities – 1. Taiwan is Under-valued Low end of historical valuation… 100% 60.0 3.0 16% 14% 80% 2.5 40.0 12% 60% 26.6 2.0 9% 10% 40% 20.0 1.8 19.6 1.5 8% 20% 1.7 5% 0.0 6% 15% 1.0 0% 4% -20% (20.0) 0.5 2% -22% -40% 0.0 0% (40.0) -60% -80% (60.0) EPS Growth(LHS) P/E(RHS) P/B(LHS) ROE(RHS) Note: 1) 2012 book value based on 1Q12 data. 2) 05/0/2012 market value. 3) Current TWSE listed companies for retrospective valuation and financials. 4) TWSE data excludes TDRs listing Source: Cmoney; Bloomberg;
  • 6. 2. Good Cash Dividend Support High Cash Dividend Yield… 80% 6.0% 70% 5.0% 60% 4.1% 3.6% 4.0% 50% 55% 55% 40% 3.0% 30% 2.0% 20% 1.0% 10% 0% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Cash Dividend Payout Ratio(LHS) Cash Dividend Yield(RHS) Note: 1) 2001-2011 based on average cash dividend yield. 2) 05/07/2012 Market value Source: Cmoney
  • 7. 3. Small & mid Cap Heaven in Greater China Good Liquidity for Small & Mid Cap stocks… Average Total Marketcap # Companies Marketcap Daily Turnover ($US bn) ($US mn) Taiwan Stock Exchange 703 824 756 0.6% Taiwan OTC 50 611 81 1.1% Taiwan Emerging Stock Board 18 276 65 0.1% Shanghai A Stock 2,451 919 2,667 0.6% Hong Kong Stock Exchange 2,005 1,491 1,345 0.3% Note: 1) TWSE 12/30/2011 listing includes 33 TDRs Source: Cmoney, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, HKEX
  • 8. 3. Small & mid Cap Heaven in Greater China Good Liquidity for Small & Mid Cap stocks… Average Total Marketcap # Companies Marketcap Daily Turnover ($US bn) ($US mn) Taiwan Stock Exchange 702 828 848 0.4% Taiwan OTC 58 607 95 0.6% Taiwan Emerging Stock Board 21 277 77 0.1% Shanghai A Stock 2,671 930 2,872 0.7% Hong Kong Stock Exchange 1505 1342 1122 0.02% Note: 1) TWSE 05/07/2012 listing includes 33 TDRs Source: Cmoney, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, HKEX
  • 9. Catalyst - Best Investment Timing in 10 Years Come out ahead in 7 years horizon 10186 10116 9809 9145 7124 10 years average 6700 6000~7000 5800 4566 4089 3135 3446 3.2x in 7 years 2.8x in 6 years TWSE Index Source: Cmoney 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 10. Our Approach – Find “Future Stars” Marketcap QFII Marketcap QFII QFII % P/B P/E EV/EBITDA Marketcap ($US mn) ($US mn) Marketcap QFII % P/B P/E EV/EBITDA 1101 台泥 4,314 1,457 33.8 1.4 15.4 5.3 ($US mn) ($US mn) 1102 亞泥 3,665 648 17.7 1.3 11.2 9.3 1216 統一 7,188 3,521 49.0 2.9 22.3 8.1 1580 新麥 156 13 8.1 3.7 10.6 6.0 1301 台塑 16,322 5,936 36.4 2.1 14.3 14.9 1709 和益 277 12 4.2 1.4 10.7 6.4 1303 南亞 15,809 4,017 25.4 1.8 20.6 11.6 4401 東隆興 113 1 0.9 1.7 7.0 4.9 1326 台化 15,668 5,614 35.8 1.9 14.6 10.6 1707 葡萄王 212 17 8.1 2.9 9.7 5.4 1402 遠東新 5,142 1,063 20.7 1.5 14.9 6.8 4105 東洋 630 25 4.0 7.1 22.3 23.2 1722 台肥 2,329 875 37.6 1.4 23.4 93.8 4104 佳醫 207 13 6.2 1.1 15.6 10.4 1802 台玻 2,242 169 7.6 1.4 27.5 14.5 5211 蒙恬 42 4 10.5 2.2 6.6 11.0 2002 中鋼 14,431 1,940 13.4 1.5 22.6 10.2 3060 銘異 392 25 6.3 3.0 14.3 6.0 2105 正新 6,099 861 14.1 3.5 21.4 9.9 9955 佳龍 102 2 2.1 NM NM NM 2201 裕隆汽車 2,648 337 12.7 1.2 22.4 9.8 9930 中聯資源 350 7 1.9 2.6 18.0 8.5 2207 和泰車 3,459 747 21.6 3.9 16.1 6.4 8390 金益鼎 91 1 1.2 1.8 9.6 12.4 2301 光寶科技 2,788 1,176 42.2 1.2 11.7 4.4 2913 農林 309 17 5.3 0.9 38.5 NM 2303 聯電 6,355 2,974 46.8 0.9 18.6 4.2 6184 大豐電 135 5 3.4 2.6 14.3 9.6 2308 台達電 7,579 5,247 69.2 3.0 20.9 8.9 9908 大台北 324 10 3.2 1.2 14.2 13.4 2311 日月光 6,539 4,619 70.6 1.9 14.3 5.6 8926 台汽電 409 19 4.8 1.5 12.9 NM 2317 鴻海 31,533 16,069 51.0 1.7 11.8 7.3 4927 KY泰鼎 142 73 51.2 2.1 10.3 4.7 2324 仁寶 5,027 2,964 59.0 1.5 14.0 6.4 1704 榮化 1,252 305 24.3 1.7 9.5 13.6 2325 矽品 3,563 1,981 55.6 1.8 22.2 5.3 2448 晶電 2,123 799 37.7 1.4 25.5 13.6 2330 台積電 72,923 56,122 77.0 3.6 16.9 7.5 3490 單井 25 0 0.1 1.0 12.6 6.0 2347 聯強 3,673 1,888 51.4 2.5 15.0 23.7 1590 Airtac 865 692 80.0 4.9 14.2 9.8 2353 宏碁 3,214 1,177 36.6 1.3 NM NM 6153 嘉聯益 477 49 10.2 2.0 9.9 5.6 2354 鴻準 4,085 1,070 26.2 2.3 15.7 9.1 3293 鈊象 334 29 8.8 3.0 8.9 11.1 2357 華碩 8,155 4,326 53.1 2.1 14.4 6.7 8044 網路家庭 432 146 33.8 9.7 24.8 19.1 2382 廣達 10,498 3,999 38.1 2.8 14.4 11.0 8255 朋程 204 2 1.1 2.7 13.4 8.9 2409 友達 3,928 1,410 35.9 0.6 NM 9.0 6116 彩晶 572 66 11.5 0.6 NM 34.0 2412 中華電 23,557 3,835 16.3 1.9 15.1 8.1 Simple Avg 407 93 13.1 2.6 14.5 11.1 2454 聯發科 10,136 3,428 33.8 2.7 22.8 15.9 2474 可成 4,880 2,117 43.4 2.7 14.2 5.6 3044 健鼎 1,559 980 62.8 2.1 10.7 3.8 2498 宏達電 12,782 6,861 53.7 4.0 6.5 4.8 6153 嘉聯益 477 49 10.2 2.0 9.9 5.6 2801 彰銀 3,644 376 10.3 1.2 12.4 89.5 8072 陞泰 326 11 3.4 2.2 11.4 5.3 2880 華南金 4,518 492 10.9 1.1 16.1 81.4 2107 厚生 323 28 8.8 1.1 4.2 5.8 2881 富邦金 9,084 1,964 21.6 1.2 9.1 29.7 1337 F-亞塑 434 312 71.9 2.3 9.4 3.8 2882 國泰金 10,737 1,805 16.8 1.5 29.5 NM 3030 德律 278 19 6.7 1.9 9.6 3.8 2883 開發金 2,869 445 15.5 0.7 53.8 381.2 6146 耕興 184 56 30.3 3.0 12.6 6.4 2885 元大金 4,557 1,444 31.7 0.9 10.6 84.5 1707 葡萄王 212 17 8.1 2.9 9.7 5.4 2886 兆豐金 8,404 2,025 24.1 1.2 14.3 NM 8210 勤誠 144 14 10.0 2.1 9.0 5.3 2890 永豐金控 2,485 777 31.3 0.9 25.4 54.7 2114 鑫永銓 126 1 1.2 2.4 8.6 5.9 2891 中信金 7,561 3,435 45.4 1.3 12.6 79.1 2420 新巨 123 1 1.2 1.6 7.5 5.0 2892 第一金 4,420 750 17.0 1.1 17.9 96.2 3527 聚積 154 3 2.2 3.0 15.4 5.2 2912 統一超 5,527 2,225 40.3 8.2 26.8 12.3 3213 茂訊 102 4 4.1 2.7 9.8 6.8 3008 大立光 2,117 546 25.8 3.2 12.4 11.7 3611 鼎翰 102 1 0.8 3.0 8.9 6.0 3045 台灣大 10,639 3,566 33.5 6.6 23.9 12.2 8114 振樺電 114 8 6.7 2.8 9.5 5.3 3231 緯創 3,109 1,869 60.1 1.5 10.5 5.1 5490 同亨 96 11 11.9 1.8 8.7 4.7 3481 奇美電子 3,047 622 20.4 0.5 NM 8.0 8103 瀚荃 108 8 7.1 1.9 9.0 3.2 3673 F-TPK 2,926 1,844 63.0 3.1 8.0 6.6 3332 幸康 74 0 0.1 1.7 8.5 6.5 4904 遠傳 7,027 2,855 40.6 2.9 23.8 7.8 8091 翔名 96 1 0.9 2.9 9.8 5.0 5880 合庫金 3,903 452 11.6 1.0 459.8 NM 3526 凡甲 74 0 0.2 1.9 10.6 3.4 6505 台塑化 27,689 1,944 7.0 3.9 38.3 21.3 5439 高技 63 0 0.1 1.5 6.5 3.4 6218 豪勉科技 56 0 0.1 1.7 13.0 6.9 TWSE 50 Sum 444,795 177,884 40.0 2.0 19.3 8.9 3390 旭軟 62 0 0.2 1.9 6.9 3.9 TWSE 688,337 226,463 32.9 1.5 15.3 13.2 3563 牧德 58 2 4.2 3.2 9.0 5.9 4429 聚紡 46 2 3.3 1.3 13.2 4.6 Simple Avg 216 61 10.3 2.2 9.6 5.1 Note: 1) 05/07/2012 stock price and 2012 consensus forecast Source: Cmoney, TWSE
  • 11. Our Approach – Find “Future Stars” Marketcap QFII Marketcap QFII QFII % P/B P/E EV/EBITDA Marketcap ($US mn) ($US mn) Marketcap QFII % P/B P/E EV/EBITDA 1101 台泥 4,548 1,609 35.4 1.4 16.7 7.4 ($US mn) ($US mn) 1102 亞泥 3,754 683 18.2 1.4 14.3 11.3 1216 統一 6,476 3,012 46.5 3.0 19.0 9.0 1580 新麥 139 11 8.0 3.6 10.2 7.0 1709 和益 270 11 4.2 1.4 9.1 6.4 1301 台塑 17,853 6,747 37.8 2.0 11.4 14.3 4401 東隆興 112 0 0.4 1.4 6.0 4.3 1303 南亞 16,437 4,325 26.3 1.8 12.1 11.5 1707 葡萄王 194 13 6.5 2.4 11.2 5.3 1326 台化 16,427 6,068 36.9 1.7 9.9 10.1 4105 東洋 647 29 4.5 5.9 11.1 19.4 1402 遠東新 6,032 1,335 22.1 1.8 13.9 7.7 4104 佳醫 237 18 7.4 1.3 11.0 9.5 1722 台肥 2,558 1,014 39.7 1.4 41.2 91.5 5211 蒙恬 47 5 10.5 2.1 17.9 12.2 1802 台玻 2,602 194 7.5 1.6 14.1 9.7 3060 銘異 347 22 6.2 2.1 12.1 6.5 2002 中鋼 14,909 1,889 12.7 1.6 11.6 10.2 9955 佳龍 111 2 1.8 1.2 NM 21.8 2105 正新 5,613 808 14.4 3.7 16.3 9.3 9930 中聯資源 302 5 1.7 2.3 13.8 9.3 2201 裕隆汽車 3,214 450 14.0 1.4 21.1 13.5 8390 金益鼎 84 1 1.2 1.5 9.8 11.3 2301 光寶科技 2,781 1,166 41.9 1.2 9.2 3.0 2913 農林 308 14 4.6 0.7 38.9 NM 2303 聯電 6,673 2,933 44.0 0.9 7.8 4.0 6184 大豐電 123 4 3.0 2.4 12.7 10.1 2308 台達電 6,329 4,251 67.2 2.5 12.2 16.1 9908 大台北 314 9 3.0 1.1 15.1 12.7 2311 日月光 6,318 4,390 69.5 2.1 10.2 5.8 8926 台汽電 401 17 4.2 1.4 10.6 NM 2317 鴻海 34,027 16,581 48.7 2.0 12.2 9.8 4927 KY泰鼎 123 61 49.3 1.6 7.1 5.0 2324 仁寶 4,998 2,822 56.5 1.2 6.0 6.6 1704 榮化 1,529 369 24.2 1.8 11.1 11.6 2325 矽品 3,361 1,897 56.5 1.6 17.0 6.9 2448 晶電 2,139 837 39.1 1.3 8.1 10.5 2330 台積電 66,084 49,972 75.6 3.5 12.3 6.8 3490 單井 25 0 0 0.9 12.1 6.0 2347 聯強 3,808 2,112 55.5 3.3 21.7 26.8 1590 Airtac 805 618 76.8 3.8 10.0 9.0 2353 宏碁 3,790 1,370 36.2 1.1 6.8 171.3 6153 嘉聯益 541 116 21.5 2.2 12.1 5.3 2354 鴻準 4,769 1,350 28.3 2.4 15.6 9.4 3293 鈊象 490 39 8.0 4.8 12.7 12.2 2357 華碩 6,098 2,798 45.9 1.6 10.5 6.8 8044 網路家庭 408 133 32.7 8.8 14.7 20.5 2382 廣達 8,706 3,017 34.7 2.2 13.5 13.6 8255 朋程 258 3 1.1 3.0 16.5 9.7 2409 友達 4,914 1,810 36.8 0.5 19.5 9.5 6116 彩晶 482 59 12.2 0.4 NM 8.0 2412 中華電 24,746 5,454 22.0 2.0 15.6 7.1 Simple Avg 417 96 13.8 2.4 12.8 10.2 2454 聯發科 11,169 4,044 36.2 2.7 9.7 22.6 2474 可成 4,654 2,083 44.8 3.8 28.4 5.2 3044 健鼎 1,489 837 56.2 1.9 8.3 3.8 2498 宏達電 16,502 9,040 54.8 5.6 10.5 8.9 6153 嘉聯益 541 116 21.5 2.2 12.1 5.3 8072 陞泰 322 9 2.7 2.1 10.4 5.9 2801 彰銀 4,095 433 10.6 1.2 13.8 152.1 2107 厚生 344 26 7.6 1.1 7.4 5.8 2880 華南金 4,792 491 10.3 1.3 21.9 121.6 1337 F-亞塑 338 244 72.2 1.8 8.5 3.7 2881 富邦金 10,621 2,455 23.1 1.3 14.0 79.7 3030 德律 268 14 5.2 1.6 5.9 3.7 2882 國泰金 12,066 2,079 17.2 1.5 72.4 NM 6146 耕興 173 49 28.2 2.7 9.8 6.1 2883 開發金 3,769 584 15.5 0.7 10.7 629.9 1707 葡萄王 194 13 6.5 2.4 11.2 5.3 2885 元大金 5,910 2,058 34.8 1.3 19.2 141.8 8210 勤誠 139 14 10.0 1.9 7.8 4.0 2886 兆豐金 8,329 1,907 22.9 1.1 14.2 NM 2114 鑫永銓 124 1 1.2 2.2 8.5 6.1 2888 新光金 2,691 646 24.0 0.8 28.3 NM 2420 新巨 118 1 1.0 1.4 6.8 4.0 2890 永豐金控 2,458 757 30.8 0.7 12.6 96.5 3527 聚積 127 1 1.1 2.4 9.7 6.0 2891 中信金 7,956 3,730 46.9 1.3 14.4 87.7 3213 茂訊 108 4 3.7 2.9 9.4 6.7 2892 第一金 4,957 807 16.3 1.2 18.7 154.8 3611 鼎翰 106 1 1.0 3.1 9.2 5.7 2912 統一超 5,614 2,278 40.6 8.3 29.4 10.6 8114 振樺電 102 7 6.6 2.5 8.6 5.9 3008 大立光 3,116 1,092 35.1 4.8 19.5 14.2 5490 同亨 102 13 12.3 1.8 9.0 4.3 3045 台灣大 10,148 3,270 32.2 6.2 22.7 10.2 8103 瀚荃 92 3 3.6 1.5 6.2 3.7 3231 緯創 3,127 1,759 56.3 1.5 7.3 7.0 3332 幸康 74 0 0.1 1.7 10.8 6.5 3481 奇美電子 3,827 798 20.9 0.4 NM 13.7 8091 翔名 88 2 2.1 2.5 8.2 5.2 3673 TPK 3,733 2,676 71.7 6.1 19.1 8.4 3526 凡甲 83 0 0.1 1.9 10.4 3.8 4904 遠傳 6,159 2,098 34.1 2.5 20.4 5.8 5439 高技 62 0 0.2 1.4 6.8 3.6 5880 合庫金 4,233 474 11.2 NM NM NM 6218 豪勉科技 62 0 0.5 1.6 6.3 4.8 6505 台塑化 28,387 1,947 6.9 3.5 21.2 16.0 3390 旭軟 63 0 0.1 1.9 7.4 4.3 TWSE 50 Sum 456,133 177,564 38.9 1.9 13.8 10.1 3563 牧德 53 2 3.5 2.3 7.2 5.2 TWSE 703,607 225,576 32.1 1.4 14.7 16.5 4429 聚紡 46 1 2.8 1.7 8.6 4.9 Simple Avg 209 54 10.0 2.0 8.6 5.0 Note: 1) 02/04/2012 stock price and 2012 consensus forecast Source: Cmoney, TWSE
  • 12. Value Creation – Institutionalizing New Markets for Best Return Bridging Foreign investors Market Institutionalizing an for sustainable long term gain Value Under-research market Foreign Partnering with Investor Venture Capitalists Research Foreign Investor coverage for Early Understanding Research Domestic Coverage Research coverage Domestic Low risk; Public Low return Listing Research High risk; Coverage Not sure high return Under Research Emerging Stock Board Low risk; Medium risk Listing Good return Medium return Venture Capital EM Stock Public 2 years Sufficient Time Corporation formation Board Listing Listing Track record
  • 13. Where is Value in Taiwan?
  • 14. EXAMPLE 1 – HANNSTAR 彩晶 (6116 TT) Private Equity Put? HANNSTAR VALUATION Marketcap ($US mn) 518 Net Debt ($US mn) 117 Enterprise Value ($US mn) 635 2011(E) Sales ($US mn) 1,390 Book Value ($US mn) 1,280 2011(E) Operating Cash Flow ($US mn) 132 Net PP&E ($US mn) 1,179 Short Term Investments ($US mn) 51 P/B 0.4x EV/Book 0.5x EV/Operating Cash Flow 4.8x Note: 1) 2011(E) Operating Cash Flow uses Annualized 1Q-3Q11 OPCF. 2) 02/04/2012 stock price. 3) 3Q11 Balance Sheet Data. Source: Cmoney;
  • 15. EXAMPLE 2 – GRAPE KING 葡萄王 (1707 TT) 1) Healthcare Food for Aging Population Trend; 2) Largest Home-Made Direct-Sales Network in Taiwan; 3) Only Listed Company in Taiwan with Direct Sales Business Model GRAPEKING VALUATION Marketcap ($US mn) 191 Cash Marketcap Net Debt ($US mn) (17) P/E Dividend ($US bn) Yield Enterprise Value ($US mn) 174 2011(E) Sales ($US mn) 123 2011(E) Sales Growth 14% Herbal 6.4 18x 2% 2011(E) Direct Sales ($US mn) 100 Life 2011(E) Direct Sales Growth 20% 2005-2010 Sales CAGR 17% Nu Skin 3.0 22x 1% 2005-2010 EPS CAGR 24% 2012(E) P/E 12.8x 2012(E) PEG 0.8x Grape 0.17 10x 7% King EV/EBITDA 6.45x Note: 1) 2011(E) Sales based on annualized 1Q-3Q11 sales. 2) 2011 Sales growth based on Jan-Oct 2011 sales growth. 3) 02/04/2012 stock price. 4) 3Q11 Balance Sheet Data. Source: Cmoney; Company; Google Finance
  • 16. EXAMPLE 3 – JYD 金益鼎 (8390 TT) Recycling – Alchemist Turns Electronics Wastes into Precious Metals JYD VALUATION EPS Marketcap ($US mn) 83 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 Net Debt ($US mn) 25 0.61 0.7 0.78 (0.7) 1.4 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 Enterprise Value ($US mn) 108 0.1 0.43 0.5 0.53 1.6 2011(E) Sales ($US mn) 124 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 Book Value ($US mn) 50 0.42 0.69 0.55 0.4 2.1 P/B 1.5x 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11(E) 2011(E) EV/Book 2x 0.73 0.94 0.92 0.4 3.0 EV/EBITDA 11x 1Q12(F) 2Q12(F) 3Q12(F) 4Q12(F) 2012(F) 2011 ROE(E) 15% 0.5 0.6 1 1.5 3.6 2.50 Low Gold High Gold 2.00 Price Price 1.50 1.00 High Factory OK BEST 0.50 Utilization 0.00 2008/5 2008/11 2009/5 2009/11 2010/5 2010/11 2011/5 2011/11 Low Factory X GOOD Utilization JYD (8390 TT) TWSE INDEX GOLD Note: 1) 02/04/2012 stock price. 2) 3Q11 Balance Sheet Data. 3) EV/EBITDA is based on annualized 1Q-3Q11 data Source: Cmoney, JYD
  • 17. EXAMPLE 6 – Wahlee 華立 (3010 TT) 200 3 2.5 WAHLEE VALUATION 150 2 1.5 100 1 Marketcap ($US mn) 319 0.5 50 0 -0.5 Net Debt ($US mn) 132 0 -1 Enterprise Value ($US mn) 451 Stock Price Quaterly EPS(RHS) 2011(E) Sales ($US mn) 1,042 Linear (Quaterly EPS(RHS)) 160 20.0% Book Value ($US mn) 253 140 120 15.0% 100 P/E 7.8x 80 10.0% 60 40 5.0% P/B 1.2x 20 0 0.0% EV/Book 1.6x 2011 ROE(E) 16% Stock Price(LHS) Cash Dividend Yield(RHS) Linear (Cash Dividend Yield(RHS)) Note: 1) 02/04/2012 stock price. 2) 3Q11 Balance Sheet Data. 3) Assume same payout ratio in 2012. Source: Cmoney;
  • 19. 1. Where are Foreign Investors? QFII holding is plateauing… 300 40% 60 90% TWSE TSMC 77% 80% 33% 35% 250 $US bn 50 $US bn 70% 30% 200 40 60% 25% 50% 150 20% 30 40% 15% 100 20 30% 10% 20% 50 10 5% 10% 0 0% 0 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 QFII Amount(LHS) QFII Holding of TWSE(RHS) QFII Amount(LHS) QFII Holding of TSMC(RHS) Note: 1) 2001~2011 Year end positions. 2) 05/07/2012 stock price. Source: Cmoney
  • 20. 2. Where is Trading Volume? Lowest turnover ever… $US bn 5.0 1.0% 4.5 4.5 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 4.0 4.0 3.8 0.8% 3.8 3.8 0.8% 0.8% 3.6 3.6 0.7% 3.5 3.2 0.7% 3.3 0.7% 2.9 0.6% 3.0 2.7 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 2.5 2.6 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 2.5 0.5% 0.5% 2.0 0.4% 1.5 0.3% 1.0 0.2% 0.5 0.1% 0.0 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Trading Volume(LHS) Average Turnover Rate(RHS) Note: 1) 2012 data is based on Jan12. 2) 05/07/2012 stock price. Source: Cmoney
  • 21. 3. Where is Confidence? Foreign investors put on Taiwan despite up in the US… 1.2 3,500 40,000 1.1 3,000 35,000 1.09 30,000 1.0 2,500 25,000 2,000 0.9 20,000 1,500 0.8 0.86 15,000 1,000 10,000 0.7 500 5,000 0.6 0 0 May-11 May-12 Dec-11 Aug-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 Mar-11 Jul-11 Mar-12 Jun-11 Nov-11 NASDAQ Index TWSE Index NASDAQ Index(LHS) QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS) 1.1 9,500 35,000 1.1 9,000 30,000 1.0 8,500 1.0 25,000 8,000 0.9 0.86 20,000 7,500 0.9 7,000 15,000 0.8 6,500 0.8 10,000 0.7 6,000 5,500 5,000 0.7 0.6 5,000 0 May-11 May-12 Dec-11 Aug-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 Mar-11 Jul-11 Mar-12 Jun-11 Nov-11 Shanghai A Index TWSE Index TWSE(LHS) QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS) Note: 05/07/2012 stock price. Source: Cmoney ;
  • 22. 3. Where is Confidence? Foreign investors put on Taiwan despite up in the US… 1.1 3,000 40,000 1.0 1.07 35,000 2,500 30,000 2,000 0.9 25,000 1,500 20,000 0.8 0.89 15,000 1,000 10,000 0.7 500 5,000 0.6 0 0 NASDAQ Index TWSE Index NASDAQ Index(LHS) QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS) 9,500 35,000 1.2 9,000 30,000 1.1 8,500 25,000 1.0 8,000 7,500 20,000 0.9 0.89 7,000 15,000 0.8 6,500 0.84 10,000 6,000 0.7 5,000 5,500 0.6 5,000 0 Shanghai A Index TWSE Index TWSE(LHS) QFII NET SHORT POSITION IN FUTURES(RHS) Note: 02/10/2012 stock price. Source: Cmoney ;
  • 23. 2020 VISION Taiwan is the cheapest “Greater China” play with value & potentials. 1. Taiwan Will Transcend – The foreigner who understands the best of China; The Chinese who understands the best of the world. 2. Election Matters Less – 2 years cycle; 2014 next on local; 2016 next on President and Congress; Higher opportunity cost for politicians to execute on plans. 3. Wealth Creation – Urban Renewal; More International Visitors; Infrastructure Spending.
  • 24. Case Study - HannStar
  • 25. What’s the Future? A Lost Decade? HannStar Stock Price since IPO… 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 05/07/2012 Stock price: 2.95 0 8/17/2001 8/17/2002 8/17/2003 8/17/2004 8/17/2005 8/17/2006 8/17/2007 8/17/2008 8/17/2009 8/17/2010 8/17/2011 Source: Cmoney
  • 26. HannStar is Under-valued HannStar HannStar AUO CMI CPT E ink 3Q11 (Parent Only) (Consolidated) (Consolidated) (Consolidated) (Consolidated) (Consolidated) Marketcap ($US mn) 367 518 4,355 3,169 294 1,388 EV ($US mn) 267 484 8,853 12,347 1,163 1,541 Book value/share (TWD) 5.4 5.4 25.5 29.7 5.6 24.9 Cash ($US mn) 168 493 2,781 2,061 580 243 Debt ($US mn) 68 610 7,278 11,239 1,449 396 Net Debt ($US mn) (100) 117 4,498 9,178 869 153 Investments for sale ($US mn) 21 49 24 53 27 12 PP&E ($US mn) 627 1,179 11,986 14,097 2,246 311 Book ($US mn) 1,047 1,047 7,505 7,229 1,219 898 OPCF (1Q-3Q11) ($US mn) 70 99 236 118 32 147 Capex (1Q-3Q11) ($US mn) (61) (312) (1,469) (1,302) (79) (65) FCF (1Q-3Q11) ($US mn) 9 (213) (1,233) (1,185) (47) 81 P/B 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.5 EV/Book 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.7 EV/OPCF 2.9 3.7 28.1 78.4 27.3 7.1 Net Debt/Equity % (10) 11 60 127 71 17 Net Debt/Marketcap % (40) 47 120 320 372 10 Note: 1) 3Q11 Consolidated data. 2) OPCF, Capex, and FCF based on 1Q-3Q11 accumulated Data. 3) 1/18/2012 stock price. Source: Cmoney;
  • 27. What’s Next? What to Do? Management Buy Out – More Incentives! Partnership! Core Shareholders Core Shareholders Private 25% 25% Equity 40% Core Debt Leverage Shareholders 50% Management + 50% Employee 5% Others Private Equity 75% 20% Management + Employee 10% Equity Valuation $US 500 mn $US 1 bn $US 500 mn Net Debt $US 500 mn Management Buy Out $US 1 bn Valuation Corporate Structure Pre-MBO Equity Post-MBO Equity Capital Holding % Holding % Core Shareholder Base 25% 50% Employee 2% 4% $US 20 mn (interest free loan ~$US100/mth - 3 years) Management 3% 6% $US 30 mn (management bonus; 3 years lock up) Private Equity Investor 20% 40% $US 200 mn Debt Leverage 50% $US 500 mn (4% interest = $US20 mn interest expense/year) Source: Athena
  • 28. Wealth Creation Entry – Private Company Valuation Exit (3 years) – New Public Company Valuation (IPO) (NT$5.5/share - De-Listing) (NT$22/share – Re-Listing) Enterprise Value $US 1 bn Enterprise Value $US 2 bn EBITDA $US 150 mn EBITDA $US 250 mn EV/EBITDA 6.5x EV/EBITDA 8x EV/Book 0.8x EV/Book 1.1x Net DEBT $US 500 mn Net DEBT 0 EQUITY $US 500 mn EQUITY $US 2 bn Wealth Creation Corporate Structure Today Equity Post-MBO Equity Equity Wealth Valuation Equity Valuation Valuation Creation (Today) Holding % (Post MBO) (3 years) Core Shareholder Base 25% $US125 mn 50% $US250 mn $US1 bn 8x Employee 4% $US20 mn $US80 mn Very large Management 6% $US30 mn $US120 mn Very large Private Equity Investor 40% $US200 mn $US800 mn 4x Total Equity Valuation $US500 mn $US500 mn $US2 bn 4x Source: Athena
  • 29. Conglomerate Risk? $US mn Group Marketcap Lowest Ever… 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 華新 華邦電 華新科 瀚宇博德 彩晶 Mktcap Conglomerate Ticker Name P/S P/B P/E EV/Book EV/EBITDA EV/OPCF ($US mn) Holdings 1605 TT 華新麗華 1,121 0.2x 0.5x 32x 1.1x 32x 221x ~20% 2344 TT 華邦電 517 0.4x 0.4x 34x 0.7x 2x 3x ~30% 2492 TT 華新科 181 0.2x 0.4x N.A. 0.6x 3x 8x ~35% 6116 TT 瀚宇彩晶 367 0.2x 0.4x N.A. 0.5x 8x 4x ~25% 5469 TT 瀚宇博德 185 0.1x 0.5x 12x 1.7x 5x 10x ~50% Note: 1) Based on 1/18/2012 stock price. 2) 3Q11 Book value. 3) Annualized Jan-Oct11 sales for sales calculation. 4) Annualized 1Q-3Q11 EBITDA Source: Cmoney;
  • 30. 瀚宇博德 Put in HK Taking Advantage of Capital Market when Market is Insufficient (47% Price Premium to De-List – 1x EV/Book) HKD/USD 7.8 Buyout Stock Price ($HK) 1.25 (Price Premium 47%) # of Shares (mn) 1,316 Marketcap ($US mn) 211 Net Debt ($US mn) 167 Enterprise Value ($US mn) 377 Book Value ($US mn) 376 Net Income ($US mn) (1) Operating Cash Flow ($US mn) 41 P/E N.A. P/B 0.6x EV/Book 1x EV/OPCF 9.3x Note: 1) Annualized 1H11 Operating cash flow. 2) 1H11 Book value. 3) Annualized 1H11 earnings. Source: Company
  • 31. Shareholder Value? Today’s Value is Well below any Time in History… Make a Cornerstone Case! Re-set Benchmarks % of current total % of 1/15/2012 Date Action Price Share(k) Amount(TWD mn) shares Marketcap 2005/3/1 海外存託憑證 10.66 768,000 8,187 1.3% 75% 2008/8/22 Shares Buyback 7.13 255,000 1,818 0.4% 17% 2008/10/14 Shares Buyback 4.27 40,899 175 0.1% 2% 2011/1/27 私募 5 634,050 3,170 1.1% 29% Source: Cmoney
  • 32. Size no longer Matters… Why Build Big Fabs? Why Sell Big Screens? Small is Better than Large… HTC 4.3” Sensation Sharp 42” 1080p 60Hz LCD TV Viewing Angle 1x 100x Price $US 435 $US 199 (Black Friday Price) Source: Bestbuy; Amazon
  • 33. Taiwan no longer has Cheap Capital… Business Model has changed! 60% 京東方能源 stake in exchange for 2.7 bn RMB cash 北京工業發展 1 billion tons coal mining right in exchange for 0.45 billion 5.5G AM-OLED line setup (22 bn RMB investments) tons coal mining right 京東方A(BOE) 內蒙古 控股子公司 京東方能源 鄂爾多斯 京東方光電 昊華能源 20% 京東方能源 stake in exchange for 0.9 bn RMB cash Source: BOE
  • 34. Investing in Branding & Bottlenecks; not in Factories Expansion… Key Technology bottlenecks QHD IPS, AMOLED, 3D, Flexible Display, 10 fingers Touch, (high resolution, paper-like, multi-view)… Capex is Commodity; no innovation Don’t do capex unless 1) Monopoly 2) Can be TSMC or Samsung Supply Chain – Unforgiven Road Factory Capex R&D R&D is Innovation A chance to disrupt industry for windfall profits Branding (Customer Relationships) Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, SoftBank, Nintendo, Intel, IBM, … China, India, Brazil, Russia, Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe… Source: Athena