Project delivery: more for less - 'no pressure then?' by David MacLeod Wednesday 18th March 2015, Glasgow

1. Project delivery:
more for less -
‘no pressure then ... ?’
David MacLeod
Crystal Ball Projects
18th March 2015, Glasgow

2. Slide 2
Why project management?
“All work today is
project work”
Tom Peters

3. Slide 3
NOT project management!

4. Slide 4
• Start: defined
• End: defined - deadline
• Single objective
• Deliverables, outputs, products,
• Risk and uncertainty
• Benefits and change
• Temporary resources
• Constraints, assumptions
• Unique … every time
Project manager!
Plan
Overhead?
Project characteristics
project
bau
project
project
project

5. Slide 5

6. Slide 6
“The December 2004
deadline for removing
the oldest slam-door
train seems to have
been set …
… without any attempt
to find out if it was
feasible or realistic”

7. Slide 7
Whatever we do must be in accord with human
nature.
We cannot drive people; we must direct their
development.
The general policy of the past has been to drive;
but the era of force must give way to the era of
knowledge, and the policy of the future will be
to teach and lead, to the advantage of all
concerned.
Henry Gantt
© Crystal Ball Projects Limited,
Are we learning?

8. Slide 8
“Unrealistic targets” – major reason for project
failure. Why? Political pressures and other
adverse political interference may lead to
unrealistic timescales.
Major Projects Seminar, November 2003

9. Slide 9
“Unrealistic targets” – major reason for project
failure. Why? Political pressures and other
adverse political interference may lead to
unrealistic timescales.
Major Projects Seminar, November 2003

10. Slide 10
Rural Payments Scheme
“The single payment scheme’s …
implementation last year to a near-impossible
timetable was a masterclass in bad decision-
making, poor planning, incomplete testing of IT
systems, confused lines of responsibility, scant
objective management information and a
failure by the management team to face up to
the unfolding crisis.”
Edward Leigh, Chairman Public Accounts Committee, 2006

11. Slide 11
Lessons learned?
West Coast Mainline
“The original aims were, however, overly
ambitious and work has taken longer and cost
more than originally envisaged”
Public Accounts Committee, 2007

12. Slide 12
Regional Fire Control Centres
“It was approved on the basis of unrealistic
estimates of costs and under-appreciation of
the complexity of the IT involved and the
project was hurriedly implemented and poorly
managed”
National Audit Office, 2011

13. Slide 13
DWP – Universal Credit
“When setting up the programme the
Department adopted an ambitious
timetable for national roll-out from October
2013. The ambitious timetable created
pressure on the Department to act quickly”
National Audit Office, 2013

14. Slide 14
“Crossrail is a textbook example of how to
focus on the essentials of programme
management, including defining a realistic
scope, establishing a management team with
the necessary skills and securing the required
funding. Two years of planning took place
before the construction programme began on
Crossrail, allowing the scope of the programme
to be well defined, resulting in only a handful
of subsequent changes being required.”
Public Accounts Committee, 2014
Not all bad …

15. Slide 15
Words …
• ambitious
• tight
• challenging
• aggressive
• demanding
• stretching
• fixed
• audacious
• bold
• brutal
.. deadline
.. schedule
.. timeline
or
.. budget
• Reckless
• Risky
• Impossible
• Problematic
• Tricky
• Onerous
• Intractable
• Rough
• Sticky
• Dangerous

16. Slide 16
Crystal Ball definitions
Desired Unplanned Financial Figure
Most deadlines are DUDs ...
Desired Unplanned Date
Most budgets are DUFF ...

17. Slide 17
The iron triangle …

18. Slide 18
Hierarchy of constraints …

19. Slide 19
Two key questions …
Should we?
Can we?
Plan
Business
Case
Sponsor
Project
Manager

20. Slide 20
Who am I … ?!
Two hats

21. Slide 21
A fine line
Stress:
Physical, emotional or mental pressure
Pressure:
The act of pressing or squeezing; constraining
force or influence; urgency; a strong demand
Can you see it?

22. Slide 22
The world moves
fast
Move faster with
Yammer
Change is the
new constant Go
further – faster

23. Slide 23
“ … in this world nothing can be
said to be certain, except death
and taxes.”
Benjamin Franklin
“… in this world nothing can be
said to be certain, except death,
taxes and … uncertainty.”
David MacLeod

24. Slide 24

25. Slide 25
O PML
PV
5 1210
9.5
Estimate
= range
5+12+40 = 57/6
= 9.5
“Courteously stubborn”
0 + P + (4 * ML)
6
PV =

26. Slide 26
First, our techniques of estimation are poorly developed.
More seriously, they reflect an unvoiced assumption which is
quite untrue i.e. that all will go well.
Second, our estimating techniques fallaciously confuse effort
with progress, hiding the assumption that men and months
are interchangeable.
Third, because we are uncertain of our estimates, software
managers often lack the courteous stubbornness of the chef
(Antoine).
Fourth, schedule progress is poorly monitored. Techniques
proven and routine in other engineering disciplines are
considered radical innovations in software engineering.
Fifth, when schedule slippage is recognized, the natural tendency and
traditional response is to add more manpower. Like dousing a fire with
gasoline, this makes matters worse, much worse. More fire requires more
gasoline, and thus begins a regenerative cycle which ends in disaster.
Courteous stubbornness …

27. Slide 27
“Free range” estimates …
“Battery” estimates …
Estimating
Challenge to understand,
not to undermine
Conversation not
negotiation

28. Slide 28
“ … appraisers should make explicit,
empirically based adjustments to the
estimates of a project’s costs,
benefits, and duration.”

29. Slide 29
Truth
Trust
White text

30. Connecting for Health insisted that the
removal of Accenture would not increase the
bill for the project or threaten its deadline.
It is delayed by two years already but CfH
insists it will make up this lost time …
NHS super upgrade

31. Slide 31
Target
An object or result to be aimed at

32. Slide 32
“Because I’ve said so …“
“I cannot see any excuse”
“Suddenly brought forward
… is added pressure on us”
Nothing is ever difficult
for the person who
doesn’t have to do it
“.. can’t hurry the plants up”

33. Slide 33
Targets
“Your talent, your dedication and
commitment brought you here. Now
you have a chance to become true
Olympians. That honour is
determined not by whether you win,
but by how you compete …
Jaques Rogge
Character counts far
more than medals.”

34. Slide 34
Medal haul
Rank by
total Nation Gold Silver Bronze Total
1
United States of
America 46 29 29 104
2
People's Republic
of China 38 27 23 88
3
Great
Britain 29 17 19 65
4 Russian Federation 24 26 32 82
5 South Korea 13 8 7 28
PDUs

35. Slide 35
Conclusions …
Plans not pressure
Make the uncertainty visible
More for less? Sure!
More WHAT? CLARITY of objective
Proper estimates
Trust , don’t target
It’s the magic inside!

36. Slide 36
“An adventure is the result of
poor planning”