These slides are from The Risk Doctor, David Hillson's, section of the presentation at the recent APM Wessex branch afternoon risk workshop. This event was held at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton on Tuesday 1st April 2014. David Hillson is an honorary fellow of APM and is known globally as 'The Risk Doctor'. David is well-known as an excellent speaker, presenter and trainer. Countless individuals, teams and organisations have benefited from his blend of thought-leadership with practical application, presented in an accessible style that combines clarity with humour. David’s speaking is guided by the Risk Doctor motto: “Understand profoundly so you can explain simply”. David sat on the panel of experts for this workshop-based event and shared his expertise with delegates who were looking for a learning experience in risk.

1. Page 1Copyright © 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership
The importance of risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson – The Risk Doctor
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 1
When is a risk
not a risk?
The importance of
risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson HonFAPM PMI-Fellow FIRM
The Risk Doctor The Risk Doctor Partnership
david@risk-doctor.com www.risk-doctor.com
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 2
Risk = Uncertainty
True or False ?
Risk = Uncertainty that matters
(i.e. can affect objectives)
Risk and uncertainty
≠

2. Page 2Copyright © 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership
The importance of risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson – The Risk Doctor
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 3
What is a risk?
Risk connects uncertainty with objectives
“An uncertain event or set of
circumstances that, should it occur, will have
an effect on achievement of objectives”
(APM BoK6 & PRAM Guide)
“The effect of uncertainty on objectives”
(ISO 31000:2009)
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 4
What kind of effect?
“Impact” assessed against objectives
But what kind of impact “matters”?
Could be either positive or negative
Uncertainty that helps as well as
uncertainty that harms
Both need managing proactively

3. Page 3Copyright © 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership
The importance of risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson – The Risk Doctor
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 5
“An uncertain event or condition that, if it
occurs, has a effect on
an objective”
(PMI® PMBoK Ch 11)
Risk includes both opportunities & threats
positive or negative
What is a risk?
“…uncertainty can affect the achievement of a project’s objectives either
positively or negatively. The term “risk” is therefore used to cover both
uncertainties that could hinder the project (threats) and
uncertainties that could help the project (opportunities).”
[APM PRAM Guide]
“Note 1 – An effect is a deviation from the expected –
positive or negative.” [ISO 31000:2009]
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 6
Why are risk descriptions important?
A good risk description enables:
Understanding
Prioritisation
Management
A good risk description must be:
Clear
Comprehensible
Unambiguous

4. Page 4Copyright © 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership
The importance of risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson – The Risk Doctor
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 7
What is the risk?
Typical examples:
Resources
Requirements
The economy
Competition
Overspend/late delivery
Safety incident
Job (in)security
…
Are these clear, comprehensible, unambiguous?
Do we understand these risks?
Could we prioritise them?
How would we manage them?
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 8
What is not the risk?
A risk is not:
A problem, issue, requirement, constraint …
These are all facts – no uncertainty
A result, outcome, effect …
These are results of risks – why it matters

5. Page 5Copyright © 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership
The importance of risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson – The Risk Doctor
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 9
What is not the risk?
CAUSE
EFFECT
Fact
Possible result
UncertaintyRISK
Don’t confuse cause, risk and effect
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 10
Risk description using
risk metalanguage
A structured description of a risk which separates
cause, risk and effect
“As a result of <1. existing condition>,
<2. something uncertain> may occur,
which would lead to <3. effect on objectives>”
Key words :
1. is, do, has, has not … [present condition]
2. may, might, possibly … [uncertain future]
3. would, could … [conditional future]

6. Page 6Copyright © 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership
The importance of risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson – The Risk Doctor
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 11
Real examples: cause, risk, effect
The current hardware is not fast enough to support testing. This means that we may be
unable to test performance until production hardware is used.
A number of usability issues have been identified by the supplier who plans to raise
change requests.
Extra work may be identified at the detailed design gateway as the full statement of work
is not available at project start
The team does not have a documented design for the XYZ function. Therefore there is the
risk that the architecture may not support the required functionality, resulting in the
requirements not being met and/or a higher number of defects.
The development team may not perform the tasks in the order laid out in the schedule.
This could result in the dates and quality of deliverables being unpredictable.
One contractor left in week 36, another joined start week 37. The inevitable disruption is
not catered for by contingency.
Given the unusually high number of builds to be carried out, test cycles may take longer
than planned, which will consume significant additional amounts of time and resource
Allocated resource may be reassigned to higher priority projects
We are modifying one of our most complicated components. We have very little time for
these changes.
We rely heavily on ABC being delivered on time
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 12
Why bother?
Good risk descriptions:
generate understanding
permit prioritisation
support management
Good risk descriptions will be:
clear
comprehensible
unambiguous
Use risk metalanguage to describe risks
Include both threats and opportunities

7. Page 7Copyright © 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership
The importance of risk descriptions
Dr David Hillson – The Risk Doctor
© 2003-14 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 13
More information from David Hillson
david@risk-doctor.com www.risk-doctor.com

8. RISK DOCTOR & PARTNERSRISK DOCTOR & PARTNERSRISK DOCTOR & PARTNERSRISK DOCTOR & PARTNERS
For over ten years, The Risk Doctor Partnership has provided specialist risk management
consultancy from our team of senior risk experts. We offer high-quality professional advice to
clients across the globe, combining leading-edge thinking with expert practical application,
providing access to the latest developments in risk management best practice.
Services from The Risk Doctor Partnership are available worldwide through our network of
partners, who include world-class experts in various risk specialisms. Full details of the business are
on our website www.risk-doctor.com. The website also offers a wide range of free resources
(videos, webinars, briefings and papers), and you can raise specific queries for rapid diagnosis.
About the Company
The Risk Doctor Partnership offers a
wide range of services, including:
• Risk process review and development,
benchmarking your approach against best
practice & recommending practical improvements
to strengthen risk management to meet the
specific challenges of your business
• Risk workshops, helping you to define your risk
appetite, set risk thresholds, identify and prioritise
threats and opportunities, assess risk exposure,
and develop effective responses to exploit
uncertainty and create value
• Risk presentations, from keynotes to briefings,
for major conferences or small teams, presenting
the latest ideas in risk management in an
accessible style that combines clarity, humour
and practicality
• Coaching and mentoring, providing personal
input and support to key individuals or small
teams, sharing and transferring expertise
• Risk training, offering a range of learning
experiences to raise awareness, create
understanding and develop skills, designed for
senior leaders, project managers & their teams,
and risk practitioners
About the Risk Doctor
Dr David Hillson is The Risk Doctor. He is an
international risk consultant, and leads the team at
The Risk Doctor Partnership. He has
helped a wide range of organisations to manage their
risk successfully at both strategic and operational
levels, and many executives and leaders have
benefited from his insights through personal coaching.
David is also a popular conference speaker and
frequent author on risk, making complex concepts
easy to understand.
David has developed a number of innovations in risk
management, which have been widely adopted. He is
best known for championing the inclusion of
opportunity in the risk process, and he has recently
developed ground-breaking practical frameworks to
address risk appetite, risk attitude and risk culture.
David’s risk work has been recognised with several
awards, including “Risk Personality of the Year” for
2010-11. He received the PMI Fellow Award, the PMI
PM Excellence Award and the PMI Distinguished
Contribution Award from the Project Management
Institute (PMI). He is also an Honorary Fellow of the
Association for Project Management (APM), and a
Fellow of the Institute of Risk Management (IRM).
David was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of
Arts (RSA) to contribute to its Risk Commission, and
he is a Chartered Fellow with the Chartered
Management Institute (CMI).
CONTACT US TODAY
Risk is everywhere and presents a range of threats and opportunities which need to be managed
proactively if we are to minimise problems and maximise benefits. The Risk Doctor
Partnership offers high-value solutions for effective risk management. Contact us today at
info@risk-doctor.com to find out how you can benefit, or visit http://www.risk-doctor.com for full
details.
Risk Doctor Network
The Risk Doctor Partnership maintains a global network of people who want to keep in
touch with latest risk management thinking and practice. Network members receive free regular
email briefings on current risk management issues. To join the Risk Doctor Network, click
the “Join Now” link on our website, or email to newsubscriber@risk-doctor.com and provide
your name, position and email address. Briefings are available in multiple languages.