The China Price

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Ashish Nangla

BY GAURAV PATEL (KH08JUNMBA65)

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Keith Krach U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, & Transportation Subcommittee on Security My charge at the State Department is to develop and operationalize a framework for a global economic security strategy that combats the PRC’s economic aggression, drives economic growth, maximizes national security, and advances peace and prosperity. It’s been my honor to work with many in Congress to shape this strategy. During my confirmation hearing, I stated that “I fully appreciate the enormity and gravity of this role, especially in a time where the reality we face as a nation is one of ever-increasing cyber warfare and seemingly ceaseless variations of intense, perhaps even weaponized, economic competition.” I also said, “It is comforting to know that both sides of the aisle understand that China is playing the long game, and they are playing for keeps—a four-dimensional game of economic, military, diplomatic, and cultural chess with little respect for human rights, intellectual property, rule of law, transparency, the environment, or the sovereignty of other nations.” During the hearing, when asked how I would accomplish my objectives, I said “my focus would be on embracing this opportunity and harnessing three powerful areas of competitive advantage: strengthening our partnerships with friends and allies, leveraging the innovation and resources of the private sector, and amplifying the moral high ground of our American values and enduring optimism to advance peace and prosperity for our country and for the world.” Congress passed the bipartisan Championing American Business Through Diplomacy Act, which bolsters U.S. business competitiveness abroad. It does so by empowering the Department of State to now work alongside the Department of Commerce to coordinate interagency efforts to leverage our diplomatic missions to promote U.S. economic and business around the world. Our strategy for advancing global economic security and combating China’s economic aggression has yielded results. To give you a sampling of the breadth and the depth of our efforts, I am highlighting our work in the following six areas: 5G, semiconductors, supply chains, institutions of higher learning, the One Belt One Road, and the environment.This requires acknowledging the true aspirations of despotic regimes. It requires a bold vision for how we can win the international economic competition, protect American assets, catalyze a new era of prosperity and innovation, create enduring advantages for the American people, and spread the success of free enterprise around the world.

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With characteristic perceptiveness, Winston Churchill observed many decades ago: “Dictators ride to and fro on a tiger from which they dare not dismount. And the tiger is getting hungry.” With China, the tiger in question is very big and very hungry. Per capita income in the PRC is just $11,000 per person, compared to $43,000 in the UK and $65,000 in the US. Stop and consider that statistic for a minute. Imagine that your income was multiplied by a factor of four, or five. Imagine how different your life would look. That’s how the average Chinese worker would regard the disparity between their income and yours. This puts China smack bang in the centre of the “middle-income trap” - where a growing economy gets stuck, and often fails altogether, to make the transition to a high-income economy. The first part of the journey, from low-income to middle-income, is relatively simple. You just need strong government oversight, an almost endless stream of obedient and extremely cheap labour, and a world market hungry for products that can be manufactured on a vast scale in labour-intensive industries. But to take your economy over the next hurdle, from middle income to high income, is far more challenging. It requires a movement away from basic, assembly-line tasks and a leap into the knowledge economy, innovation, and high-tech, high-skill manufacturing. In other words, it is a movement away from mass-volume industries where the greatest differentiator is price, and into value-added industries where customers are willing to pay a premium for the technology, the prestige, or the originality of the goods

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10 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY WINTER 2014 China Under Attack On January 31, 2014, one of China’smany trust companies, the China CreditTrust, nearly went bankrupt and had tobe bailed out by unknown sources.Some say it was China’s LehmanBrothers moment. In late December2013, Foxconn, the Chinese assemblyfirm with 1.2 million Chinese workers, announced its intention to build a production facility in the United States. On December 5, 2013, China’s new aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was sailing in the South China Sea when a vessel from its carrier group came less than 1,400 feet from the USS Cowpens, a Ticonderoga-class missile cruiser. The near- collision was the result of an ever more apparent game of “chicken” between the United States and China. The three seemingly unrelated events may be individually important, but they are symptomatic of changing dynamics affecting China’s inter- action with the United States and the West more generally. China’s competitiveness has been deeply eroded in recent years. The old revenue and cash inflows China had enjoyed dis- appeared when the financial crisis damaged consumption in the industrialized world. Since then, Chinese workers have been B Y K . P H I L I P P A M A L M G R E N An economy amazingly vulnerable to bad news. Philippa Malmgren is the founder of DRPM Group. These ideas are further explored in her upcoming book, Signals. She previously served on the White House National Economic Council in 2001 and 2002. THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY 220 I Street, N.E., Suite 200 Washington, D.C. 20002 Phone: 202-861-0791 • Fax: 202-861-0790 www.international-economy.com [email protected] WINTER 2014 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 11 MALMGREN hurt by both the deterioration of a powerful export engine and the rapidly rising cost of living. Chinese official data shows inflation is not too bad. But the Chinese government wants to maintain the façade that markets are functioning favorably and the GDP defla- tor is small, ensuring high “real” growth rates. The actual inflation rate faced by locals is far higher than the data shows. Of course, some argue a gap exists in the United States as well. The reality though, is that the prices of energy and food have been high and rising rapidly in recent years. Food and fuel account for 40 percent to 70 percent of a Chinese worker’s expenses. Consider the price of beef, which, like most proteins, has kept hitting all-time record highs in the last few years. Failure to pro- vide the Chinese public with protein at a moderate price is a recipe for serious social unrest. Oil may not seem expen- sive in the West, but anything over $100 per barrel trans- lates to fuel and other energy expenses high enough to warrant moving production to the United States where energy is increasingly cheap, leading to job losses in China. These pressures have generated demands for higher pay. Wage demands for skilled Chinese workers are run- ning at a 70 pe ...

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The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid by C.K. Prahalad and Stuart L. Hart from strategy+business issue 26, first quarter 2002 © 2002 Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. All rights reserved. strategy+business e-Doc con ten t strateg y & com p etition 1 Il lu st ra ti o n b y M ar co V en tu ra Low-income markets present a prodigious opportunity for the world’s wealthiest companies — to seek their fortunes and bring prosperity to the aspiring poor. With the end of the Cold War, the former Soviet Union and its allies, as well as China, India, and Latin America, opened their closed markets to foreign investment in a cascading fashion. Although this significant economic and social transformation has offered vast new growth opportunities for multinational corporations (MNCs), its promise has yet to be realized. First, the prospect of millions of “middle-class” consumers in developing countries, clamoring for products from MNCs, was wildly oversold. To make matters worse, the Asian and Latin American financial crises have greatly diminished the attractiveness of emerging markets. As a consequence, many MNCs worldwide slowed investments and began to rethink risk–reward structures for these markets. This retreat could become even more pronounced in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the United States last September. The lackluster nature of most MNCs’ emerging- market strategies over the past decade does not change the magnitude of the opportunity, which is in reality much larger than previously thought. The real source of market promise is not the wealthy few in the developing world, or even the emerging middle-income consumers: It is the billions of aspiring poor who are joining the market economy for the first time. This is a time for MNCs to look at globalization strategies through a new lens of inclusive capitalism. For companies with the resources and persistence to com- pete at the bottom of the world economic pyramid, the prospective rewards include growth, profits, and incal- culable contributions to humankind. Countries that still don’t have the modern infrastructure or products toIll u st ra ti o n b y M ar co V en tu ra The Fortune Pyramid Bottomat the of the by C.K. Prahalad and Stuart L. Hart S E C U R I T Y A N D S T R AT E G Y con ten t strateg y & com p etition 2 st ra te g y + b u si n e ss is su e 26 meet basic human needs are an ideal testing ground for developing environmentally sustainable technologies and products for the entire world. Furthermore, MNC investment at “the bottom of the pyramid” means lifting billions of people out of poverty and desperation, averting the social decay, political chaos, terrorism, and environmental meltdown that is certain to continue if the gap between rich and poor countries continues to widen. Doing business with the world’s 4 billion poorest people — two-thirds of the world’s population — will require radical innovations i.

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The China Price

1. THE “CHINA PRICE” 低在“中国价格” BY GAURAV PATEL ( KH08JUNMBA65 )

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The China Price

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